Talladega. Must I say more? Mother Nature’s lack of southern hospitality pushed Sunday’s race into Monday. After waiting out another obligatory weather delay, we were rewarded by an evening of heart-pounding action. Ryan Blaney scored back-to-back wins at Talladega – both by a minuscule 0.007-second differential. Blaney, obviously affected by the wild ride to the finish, could barely keep it together for the post-race interview. Fortunately, the drivers have almost a full week to recuperate before racing resumes. This break is critical because we’re headed straight into a NASCAR doubleheader at Pocono.
2020 is undoubtedly a season of unique arrangements; some by design and others out of pure necessity. The Cup Series will run the Pocono Organics 325 on Saturday, then the Pocono 350 on Sunday. These two races are typically separated by about seven weeks; now the turnaround is less than 24 hours. Interestingly, this is not part of the condensed COVID schedule; NASCAR announced it back in the fall of last year. Kyle Busch is the 2019 June Pocono 400 defending champ, while Denny Hamlin stands as the 2019 July Gander Outdoors 400 winner. You better believe these teams will be dialed in to tackle one of the circuit’s toughest tracks. We’re ready to dive in too, but first let’s take a look back at Talladega.
Never a Dull Moment at Talladega
The Big One never happened, but 500 miles of full-throttle, bumper-to-bumper racing was certainly good enough for me. The Penske Fords were scarily dominant in the first two-thirds of Monday’s race. Ultimately, Penske’s youngest star Ryan Blaney was the only one able to stay up top. Joey Logano finished 17th and Brad Keselowski was behind him in 19th. Ryan’s victory marks his sixth finish of 4th or better in his last seven races. You’re going to have a tough time finding someone more in the zone than he is right now.
Blaney’s win increased his position on both the season and playoff points standings. However, Kevin Harvick’s 10th place finish kept him firmly in the season points lead. The playoff rankings are much tighter, as Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano are right on Harvick’s heels. Eight drivers now have race wins this year, four of those with multiple victories. One notable who hasn’t yet locked down a playoff berth is defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Busch. I’m not going out on a limb when I say it’s only a matter of time until he checks this box and makes another postseason run. The teams at the top know better than to count Kyle out.
Betting Card Review
Fuel mileage and strategy played a huge role in this race. Look no further than some of the guys who survived to finish in the Top 10: Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Aric Almirola, Erik Jones, Chris Buescher, and John Hunter Nemechek. We expected two of those guys to finish strong and hoped that one wouldn’t. Erik Jones crossed the line while skidding along the wall, overtaking Ryan Newman, who was forced to pit with two laps to go. It was either that or risk running out of gas. The only positive in this fuel mileage scenario was Clint Bowyer being in the exact same boat. His late pit practically guaranteed an Almirola matchup win. Fortunately, AA’s spin happened at the finish line; he may have been backwards but he held down 3rd place. I am truly relieved to leave Talladega with a 1-1 matchup split and keep the bankroll intact. Whew.
Taming the Tricky Triangle
The Pocono Mountains are home to a unique track on the NASCAR circuit. Pocono Raceway only has three turns, making it the “Tricky Triangle.” In fact, “What Turn 4?” is somewhat hilariously painted on the track’s outside wall as a not-so-subtle reminder. Pocono’s 2.5-mile length compares to superspeedways, but the parallels stop there. If you want a thorough overview of the track’s configuration and history, check out this five-minute video:
Too long; didn’t watch version: each of its three turns were modeled after another track’s turn. This means that not only is Pocono Raceway flaunting one less turn than a traditional oval, but that each one is significantly different in length, banking, and curvature. Ironically, the Tricky Triangle’s oddball design is due in part to it mimicking three other racetracks’ turns:
- Trenton Speedway (14 degree banking)
- Indianapolis Motor Speedway (9 degree banking) – a.k.a. the “Tunnel Turn”
- Milwaukee Mile (6 degree banking)
Add a 0.7-mile front straightaway into the mix and now car setup is even more critical. Drivers must shift gears to attack the long straightaways and make critical transitions in and out of the turns, which is very uncommon at this level. NASCAR played with transmission rules over the last 20 years and even eliminated gear shifting completely at one point, a phase that came and went. Experimentation with the PJ1 compound last year expanded drivers’ options for viable grooves, though plans for its application this weekend are unknown as of this article’s publishing.
The Joe Gibbs Winners Circle
If any racing stable should feel confident coming into the NASCAR doubleheader at Pocono, it is Joe Gibbs Racing. JGR drivers have won the last five Cup Series races here. One caveat to this: Martin Truex, Jr.’s 2018 win came during his Furniture Row Racing tenure. MTJ was cooking with gas coming into the 2019 Pocono 400, having won the Coke 600 the week before and at Dover two races prior. He battled hard but engine failure doomed his day, giving him one of only two DNFs here. If you back that fluke out of the calculus, Truex looks to be a contender on Saturday with three Top 5 finishes in four races here.
Defending 2019 NASCAR Champion Kyle Busch won last year’s Pocono 400, his third win at a track where a full half of his finishes have been in the Top 10. Kyle knows how to get it done on the Tricky Triangle and the odds will certainly reflect that. There’s a dark side to this track that Kyle will even attest to – it is easy to find yourself on the sidelines here. His five DNFs at Pocono Raceway (two due to engine issues, three from accidents) is third-highest among non-superspeedway tracks.
Teammate Denny Hamlin is your most recent Pocono champion, winner of the 2019 Gander Outdoors 400. Denny is a five-time winner here but last July’s victory was his first in nine years. He’s had rough patches here like many other drivers, but Hamlin’s consistency is very impressive. 18 of his 28 Pocono Cup starts resulted in Top 10 finishes, including five of the last seven. Busch, Truex, and Hamlin combine for ten victories at the Tricky Triangle and should be well positioned to snag #11 on Saturday. Or Sunday, for that matter.
Erik Jones: From Fade to Follow
Erik Jones’ up-and-down season hit a high note at Talladega. His slow start prior to NASCAR’s hiatus gave way to back-to-back Top 10s at the Darlington contests. 11th in the Coca-Cola 600 wasn’t too shabby, but a pit violation penalty with about 60 to go in the mid-week encore stuck him with a 26th place finish. Jones showed youthful resiliency with a 5th at Bristol on short turnaround. Unfortunately for him, the tough times returned for a three-race stretch starting in Atlanta. Jones’ 5th place finish on Monday snapped that skid.
Pocono Raceway is a different animal altogether and Erik Jones has found himself a nice little groove here. In six Cup races at the Tricky Triangle, Jones has a stellar four Top 5s and an 8th place finish. As for the lone outlier, see how his day at the 2018 Pocono 400 ended in the video:
Jones was likely a 10th-15th place finisher before a squirrelly restart with only 11 laps to go. That happens to the best of them and there may have even been some help from one of the best of them, Joey Logano, on that one. Regardless, Jones has been top tier at Pocono ever since in the Joe Gibbs Racing #20 Camry. Jones racked up three Top 5s since that wipeout, including a tight runner-up finish last July where teammate Denny Hamlin edged him out in overtime. Hell, Erik qualified for the pole and finished 2nd in his only Xfinity race on the triangle in 2016. You would be doing yourself a disservice by leaving him out of consideration this weekend.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Six drivers posted under 10/1 odds at the open define the lead pack at Pocono. Kyle Busch’s three wins in the last five races here have earned him top billing alongside Kevin Harvick, who leads the season standings. JGR teammates Hamlin and Truex are in the logjam near the top due to their recent Pocono wins. This week’s odds board is a big contrast to Talladega’s opener, where nobody was priced less than 10/1. Chalk that up to the high-risk nature of superspeedway racing that we should not have this weekend on the triangle.
Without a doubt, this is a venue where I lean towards track performance history over current form coming into the race. Like most tracks, there are a number of teams to back and others to fade. Unlike more volatile tracks like Talladega, this is an opportunity to catch more positions by widening my net. Stenhouse, Almirola, and Newman were our go-to drivers last week but we didn’t want to take on more than two plays’ worth of exposure to risk. The Tricky Triangle loosens things up; here’s where we’re at early in the week.
NOTE: Due to the quick turnaround between the races this weekend, we will not have a race preview for Sunday. Like usual, any plays we make will be posted on the NASCAR page at BetCrushers.com.
In a Groove
In addition to Kyle, two drivers have been remarkably reliable at Pocono for at least four years: Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski. Since joining Stewart-Haas in 2014, Harvick has delivered nine Top 10 finishes here. Engine woes sunk him in August 2015, otherwise he’s been a force of nature here. Happy has yet to win on the Tricky Triangle but has four runner-up performances – all of which have come in the #4 car. Even scarier is Kevin’s consistency now that SHR moved to Ford. His resume since 2017 boasts four Top 5 finishes in six races, including a pair of runner-ups. The #4 Mustang team’s lone blemish came at the 2019 Pocono 400 where a late uncontrolled tire penalty and a lack of power steering stuck Harvick with a 22nd place finish. Fellow NASCAR handicapper, Jason (@h20gony) moved quickly on 7/1 odds. That number appears to be gone now.
Brad Keselowski Top 5 +140
If you want Harvick-like consistency at a better price, take a look at Brad Keselowski. Sure, Brad hasn’t won at Pocono since 2011 but I don’t need to see the eleven-year veteran doing burnouts at the end of the race. I just need him to do what he’s done consistently for the past nine contests here: finish in the Top 5. Keselowski has done this in half of his 20 Cup Series races here. An accident in the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400 derailed a run of six straight Top 5s, but he immediately rallied with a runner-up finish in last year’s Pocono 400.
It’s fair to say that some of the Keselowski magic from a few weeks ago has worn off. When I look at Pocono irrespective of current form, the numbers point to Brad being a 50/50 prospect for a Top 5 finish in either race here. So my job is to assess who the most likely Top 5 drivers will be. Two slots go to the proficient young guns of Erik Jones, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and a wild card. The remaining three go to Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, MTJ, Brad, and another wild card. This segmented approach puts Keselowski on a 60% chance to convert. Add a margin of safety and 50% sounds very reasonable. I’m happy to take +140 in a coin-flip scenario for Brad Keselowski to finish in the Top 5.
Ryan Blaney -105 vs. Joey Logano
Anybody paying attention to NASCAR has to have noticed the strong performances turned in by Ryan Blaney recently. He sits third in the season standings and is firmly in the postseason conversation after Monday’s gutsy win at Talladega. The results are quite clear: Blaney is en fuego. He has finished no worse than 4th in six of the last seven races. The “seventh race” was lost at Bristol when a simple spinout turned into a demolished front end. The #12 Mustang has been money since the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte.
Penske’s trifecta of Keselowski, Logano, and Blaney now has a combined five wins and 15 Top 5s in the 2020 season. Joey’s two wins came before the COVID hiatus and he’s been a factor in most of the races since the return. Chase Elliott bumped him out while gunning for the finish line at Bristol, then Logano played Mr. Troublemaker himself at Homestead after going a lap down. I give Blaney a firm edge in current form, but encourage you not to underestimate Joey.
Both drivers have a victory at Pocono Raceway, though Logano’s came in 2012 in a Joe Gibbs Toyota. Since joining Penske in 2013, he’s finished in the Top 10 in only half of those 14 Cup races. Blaney isn’t lights out here either, but he has a leg up on consistency. Outside of 2017, when Ryan logged both a 30th and a win, he produced 10th-12th place finishes in five of six races on the triangle. Ditch Joey’s high and low finishes during this same time frame and you’ll find his range to be between 7th-27th. Both drivers have the resources and the skills to produce top-tier results. However, I place a bigger premium on Blaney’s tighter range, consistency, and – quite frankly – his current form. I expect Ryan Blaney to take a step forward at Pocono this weekend and deliver a matchup win over Joey Logano as an underdog.
Erik Jones -125 vs. Jimmie Johnson
Jimmie Johnson has been a factor in nearly every race this season, sometimes positively and sometimes … not. I characterized his driving style a few weeks ago as borderline reckless, but it’s been good enough for a string of Top 10 finishes at Bristol, Atlanta, and Martinsville. Erik Jones has a few bright spots this year but otherwise isn’t putting together a season reminiscent of his strong run in summer 2019. The current form edge goes to Johnson.
Here’s where my heavier weighting on track performance tilts the scales. Erik Jones has been nothing short of a beast at Pocono, even if his zero wins here can’t compare to Jimmie’s three victories. The bottom line is that JJ hasn’t dominated here since 2015, where he finished 3rd and 6th. Even if I consider Jimmie’s 3 DNFs since 2016 to be fluky, Erik has outraced him in five of the last six. I do not expect Johnson to lie down in this one. However, Jones is extremely dialed in at Pocono and gives us a great chance to cash this head-to-head matchup.
William Byron -125 vs. Jimmie Johnson
William Byron made his way onto my potential fade list a couple times in recent weeks; although generally speaking, he’s been anything but a play-against driver. Byron has raced well recently, showing my initial opinions on him to be misguided. Without being overly influenced by recency, I will give the young Hendrick Motorsports driver his due. Like Erik Jones, William showed skills on the triangle as he moved through the NASCAR ranks. Pocono was one of his seven wins as a Truck Series rookie, though 12th in his only Xfinity race here is less impressive.
William’s Cup Series rookie initiation to Pocono Raceway was modest, to say the least. However, a couple months later he turned a start at the rear into a 6th place finish in the 2018 Gander Outdoors 400. Byron earned the pole in the 2019 Pocono 400, had a Top 3 car for most of the race, and ultimately finished 9th. The Tricky Triangle is aptly named and this young driver’s proficiency here is noteworthy.
If you weren’t impressed with William’s back-to-back Top 10s, consider how he turned another terrible starting position in the July 2019 race into a 4th place finish in overtime. Six career Cup Series races could be misleading, but I truly believe that this kid knows his way around the triangle. He is priced similarly to Erik Jones against veteran Jimmie Johnson for pretty much the exact same reason. I don’t give either driver an edge in current form so it becomes all about Pocono. Like Jones, William Byron has outraced Jimmie in the last three races on the Tricky Triangle, which is more than enough to attract our money. Looking for another way to play WB? Check out our friend @NASCARStyleOdds for his matchup breakdown with Byron.
Independence Day Weekend in Indy
Next weekend is Independence Day weekend, and the Cup Series has a Sunday afternoon showdown in Indianapolis on tap. It’s not the most NASCAR-friendly track, but we’ll have a handicap for you nonetheless. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and check our NASCAR page to keep an eye on our handicap and what we’re playing. Subscribe below for email alerts so you’ll never miss one of our features ever again.
