Day ball was kind to me on Thursday as the Twins and Rockies jumped out to early leads and never coughed them up. The 2-0 result pushes the week 5 record to 5-3 for a +2.58 unit net. Reads on starting pitchers are getting sharper and the team profiles are firming up although there is inherently a good amount of uncertainty in any sporting event that keeps us handicappers humble.
We’ve got damn near a full card for Friday. The Yankees and Indians matchups intrigued me but I am still on the fence about these teams, specifically their offenses. Paxton should be tough tonight against his former club but how much punch do the Mariners have after a rough stretch? Bieber is a young phenom but hasn’t been sharp enough lately to carry an offense that sometimes doesn’t show up.
With that in mind, I’ve passed on a few games I probably would have hit a couple weeks ago. Restraint is good, right? Instead, I’m on a pair of division games that should be good ones to watch…
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies
Oh how the Phillies have burnt me on the run line this season. I’ve had a few wins with this club but have also lost 3 run line bets where the hyped Philly offense squeezed out a 1-run victory. But that’s on me for being a bit too loose with run line bets early in the season. After a hiatus from betting on the Phils (and most of the NL East), I find myself back in the saddle as they host the Nationals this weekend.
Jeremy Hellickson leads a stale Washington club into Citizens Bank Park, but needs to get his ship turned around in order for the Nats to have a chance. He has not been good lately, giving up 5 runs in each of his last 2 starts. Another short outing from Hellickson will shift too many innings to a bad bullpen. Furthermore, the Washington offense has been sputtering and will be without arguably their best hitter this season, Anthony Rendon.
Jerad Eickhoff is a strikeout guy that can stumble when his control is not sharp and too many walks are issued. I’ve made a minor downward adjustment to him to account for this, but he is still considerably better than his counterpart tonight. The Phillies are on a 5-2 run and have covered all 5 wins in that stretch, which is a little more comfort in their ability to get some separation in the past couple weeks. This one comes down to whether their hitters want to tee off on a sub-par starter and poor bullpen.
Weather Permitting: Phillies RL +120
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
What do you do with a pair of teams that have been playing good ball lately? Lay the favorite on the road? In this one, my answer is “yes”. Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks head north into the mountains on a 7-2 run in which they’ve gone 4-1 on the road. Ray has been solid all season though his weak spot is a 39.5% ground ball rate. He can be susceptible to walking batters but has exhibited better control after his first couple starts. I think their bullpen and offense have been very good this year as a whole and certainly have been on point lately, even with a couple letdown games against the Cubs.
Tyler Anderson is the wild card in this matchup. Bud Black says his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy, and rightfully so. He’s given up 21 runs in 16.2 innings with a high-strikeout potential. His 11.34 ERA is not supported by a 4.75 xFIP, yet he is prone to the long ball and giving up walks. Like I said about yesterday’s Colorado/Milwaukee game, pitchers that give up homers and walks have a very short leash. The Rockies’ bullpen is quite good though they have been worked over the last couple games against the Brewers because the starters did not go deep. An early exit by Anderson may stress this unit or Black may keep him in to eat a couple extra innings. The silver lining for Colorado is that their offense that has gelled and is mashing. Key cogs like Arenado, Story, and Dahl have heated up and are giving other guys in the lineup good opportunities to shine.
