Sunday’s 1-1 split was a fitting end to a ho-hum week 11 in the MLB. The week finishes up with a 5-6 record that cost me 0.98 units. Nothing too out of whack, but I am without a doubt well behind my season-long pace. Since I will be in Europe for 10 days in late June/early July, I am losing over a week of production to grind out profits. I have not missed a day of handicapping the MLB and writing these articles since Opening Day, so vacation will be a critical refresher for me as we ramp up into NFL season.
My read on the Royals was a complete swing and miss. I expected them to take some walks, play small ball, and generate runs every couple innings to get a 5-2 type of win. Instead, the White Sox flipped that score on its head by outhitting Kansas City 12-6. Chicago even left 10 runners on base. I clearly took the wrong side in that contest.
Arizona, however, was not the wrong side in Toronto as they earned the sweep by outscoring the Jays 32-4 in the weekend series. Richard had the Diamondbacks guessing the first time through the order with his odd pitching motion. Adjustments were made and Arizona ran away with the game again. Good to see that club get the ship righted. I wanted to grab them again in Philadelphia but am not comfortable with Clarke getting the start tonight.
Let’s kick off week 12 with another pair of plays. First time through the slate I almost had the night off without any wagers. But I dug deeper and came out with a couple dogs that could fall short or they could take care of business a deliver nice payoffs…
Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox
Pricey Sale: Rangers +226
Going against Chris Sale never feels good, especially when he is fresh off of a complete game shutout. The only consolation is that he gave up 11 runs over 24.1 innings in his 4 games prior to the shutout. This gives my Rangers wager a glimmer of hope, though they have their own quality arm on the mound tonight in Mike Minor.
Minor has had a very good season to follow up on 2018 where he steadily improved after shoulder surgery. He is not unhittable with a 1.22 WHIP but has done a great job at limiting damage (5 earned runs over 16 innings in his last 3 starts). Having a prolific offense behind him doesn’t hurt either. Despite not having Gallo in the lineup, the Rangers always have the potential to get critical runs. Against Sale, the runs will be scarce but these hitters can put pressure on him and keep him from going past the 7th inning.
Sale is a strikeout machine (110 K/19 BB) who is able to work out of any jam with his electric stuff. However, he has given up 1 home run in each of his last 4 home starts that could prove to be the difference-maker. I’ll offer a cursory comparison of these two guys’ batted ball metrics:
Minor – 42.3% GB / 36.6% HC / 10.3% HR/FB
Sale – 41.2% GB / 35.2% HC / 15.7% HR/FB
Boston’s bullpen has been shakier than usual lately, so any edge in that department over a sub-par Texas unit is minimal. Both teams are hitting well but the Sox have been up and down lately. Granted, their competition has been tougher than the clubs Texas has faced in their 7-3 run (all home games). There are a lot of toss-ups when handicapping this game. The only solid conclusion that I can draw is that +226 for the Rangers is very generous. I actually shade this one to the Rangers but the payout sealed the deal.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins
How late am I to the Marlins party? Better question: what makes me think that I am finally going to be right in handicapping a Cardinals game this year? Michael Wacha is slated to start for St. Louis after recently being sent to the bullpen. He had a brutal stint as a starter in 2019, partially due to him consistently giving out walks and being knocked around (1.78 WHIP, .315 BABIP). His ground ball rate is good (43.8%) but gives up too many home runs on fly balls (24.0%). The Cardinals feel that he made some strides while in the bullpen, but today’s start is more out of necessity as it is currently a vacant spot in the rotation.
Sandy Alcantara has been improving throughout the season as he gains vital experience in the big leagues. Sporadic outings with way too many walks have been a weak spot of his, though he has gone 4 games without giving up a home run. He does not generate many strikeouts and relies on weak contact to get outs (47.1% ground ball rate, 30.6% hard contact).
Both teams are on losing streaks, so no momentum to factor in. You can argue that Miami’s 23-40 record is softened a bit when you look purely outside of the NL East, where they have a better 14-18 record. All that aside, both offenses have sputtered lately though Miami has exploded for 6+ runs in 5 of their last 8 games. Whether that flash in the pan can be reignited against Wacha tonight will be seen. I’ll back Alcantara at home and play the percentages that Wacha will have another rough start for the Cardinals.
