The complexion of the 145th Run for the Roses has changed considerably in the past week. First, favorite Omaha Beach gets scratched. Now the weather looks to be a big factor at Churchill Downs. Regardless of the track conditions or how stacked the field is, Derby Day is a traditional party day in this house. The invites are out, meat is cooking in the smoker, and the Woodford Reserve is ready to be cracked open.
Before I get too deep into the Derby and the sauce today, it’s time to talk baseball. Another 2-0 day yesterday keeps a nice week 5 rolling along, pushing the weekly net to +4.78 and making the 2019 season profitable. Several factors are at work: better data, more disciplined betting, and a strategic increase in bet size to 1.5% of the bankroll. Although a stumble is inevitable, a positive mindset is crucial to staying the course.
I opted to pass on the Yankees and Indians last night. Both teams were laying around -150, which is a no-go for me. Run lines were my primary option in those situations. Yankees covered +130 while the Indians squeaked out a 2-1 win. Either play (run line or money line) was profitable but I feel that I played this correctly in the broader context. Being more selective in the past couple weeks has kept me away from some duds and has generally led me to winners at a very good rate.
Speaking of winners, both of Friday’s plays were very close calls. Philly, my betting nemesis this season, made a close game out of a matchup that should have been highly favorable for them. A 3-run bomb in the 6th gets us there for the +120 run line win. Colorado kept answering the Diamondbacks to keep it tight, including a crazy bottom of the 9th that could have easily walked them off and sunk the -112 lay on Arizona. But I have no shame in taking some lucky breaks considering there’s plenty of unlucky ones to go around.
+2.20 units was the reward for getting involved in Friday night’s games. For the 3rd day in a row, I find myself on a pair of plays. 3rd time’s a charm, they say…
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox
The Red Sox are finally getting their footing this season, though there is plenty of work ahead to climb the AL East ladder. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez gets his 7th start of the season and wants to notch a 3rd quality start for the Sox. His metrics are very interesting, in that his ERA is a high 6.16 but the 3.91 xFIP tells a different story. At some point, Eduardo’s production is expected to smooth out. Boston has put up 5 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. In fact, 5 runs seems to be their key number; all of their last 6 wins came with at least this number of runs.
Manny Banuelos may be the starter in tonight’s game but he will only be half of the White Sox pitching equation. He’ll be hard pressed to get through 5 full innings of work, so the Chicago bullpen will be leaned on to finish the second half strong. Banuelos has pitched well in his 2 starts and in his long relief work. His metrics tell a story opposite of his counterpart. His 2.70 ERA is not supported by a 4.25 xFIP, and a 87.3% strand rate coupled with a 41.2% ground ball rate could mean that he’s going to get lit up at some point.
Boston’s offense has been producing lately and could be the unit that gets to Banuelos. But the White Sox have been grinding out wins, most notably at home where they are 5-2 in their last 10-game stretch. Both offenses have the ability to put up some runs, with a slight edge to Chicago’s power. Anything goes with these defenses that can extend innings and give the other team extra chances. All that said, I believe there is too much value on the home dog at +150-ish so I’ll be on the White Sox for the first time this season.
Value Hunt: White Sox +157
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
Here we go again…will we see another roller coaster ride at Coors Field tonight? Luke Weaver gets the job of extending the Diamondbacks’ 5-game road win streak. He’s been fairly steady this season with a good strikeout rate but is prone to wearing himself out early. There’s a good chance he only gets through 5 innings of work before the Arizona relief unit takes over.
I can’t say much more than I did yesterday about both teams’ offensive productions this year, especially Colorado’s surge in the last couple weeks. Kyle Freeland has had a couple bumpy starts mixed into a solid 2019 resume, so I have to rate him as an average starter in this scenario. In all honesty, both starters in this one have to be modeled this way. It’s tough to expect more out of mid-rotation guys at Coors Field. This should be about who outslugs the other, just like last night.
I have to pounding Arizona again until they prove me otherwise. They’re 8-2 in their last 10, including 5 straight wins on the road. Current form pushes me to a Diamondbacks side that is getting plus-money tonight.
