Luis Castillo’s wizardry was damn near thwarted by the 3rd base bag in the 1st inning last night. Fortunately, the unfortunate circumstances at the beginning of the game were returned as a favor via wild pitch in the bottom of the 5th. Cincy held on after a considerable rain delay and delivered a W for me and Luis.
This was an important rubber game for me as my early plays split. The Mets coughed up a big lead early and couldn’t get all the way back in it. Milwaukee started slow but finished with a bang, blowing out the Phillies. Neither of those games played out how I handicapped them, which happens. Our best laid plans as MLB handicappers/bettors sometimes don’t mean squat when it comes to the players’ execution on the field.
Cincinnati’s series-ending win delivers a 2-1 record for the day, earning +1.1 units. This extends the week’s profit to +1.5 units on a 4-3 record. Full slate for Friday night, so let’s get some winners with 3 teams in the Central(s)…
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Ace High: Cubs +137
The Cubs depart Cincinnati looking for someone to beat up on. Unfortunately, they run into one of the game’s best, Max Scherzer. But the Cubs have someone almost as qualified to square up with Max in Cole Hamels. Cole has been very good this season by going deep into games, getting strikeouts, and limiting hard contact (33.8% HC). He’s fairly dependable as a 6-inning guy who keeps contact on the ground for the most part (56.5% GB).
Scherzer really needs no introduction, but we all know that he is not delivering his top-tier stuff this season…yet. His last outing in LA was very good but he gave up an early 2-run homer that would have made the difference sans a Dodgers’ bullpen collapse. His WHIP is good, xFIP is solid, and he still gets a ton of Ks. Scherzer chews up innings to protect one of the worst bullpens in the MLB. The down side is that he is giving up hard contact; his 39.1% rate is almost 9 points higher than any other season of his, correlating with a .361 BABIP. Scherzer is an excellent pitcher but is not bulletproof.
Cole Hamels has the ability to duel with Scherzer tonight. He is supported by a much better lineup and significantly better bullpen. Both guys can go 6 or more innings, so the bullpen factor is less impactful than with different starters. Despite Washington’s offensive explosion and Chicago’s 2 runs yesterday, the Cubs pose a much bigger threat to outscore the Nats. Not by much, but enough.
LA Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
Getting It Done: Reds +120
Yesterday we had Castillo v. Quintana, today we get Hill v. Desclafani. There’s a significant difference in class between these matchups, but another one where I give a slight edge to the Reds’ starter. Rich Hill has been anything but good in his 3 starts this season, giving up 5 homers over 15 innings. Despite all the home runs, Hill minimizes hard contact (34%) and gets a lot of soft contact (23.4%). LA’s offense is well qualified to get him plenty of run support and has delivered him 2 wins over his 3 starts. Their bullpen collapses make the headlines but they are still quite good at locking the late game down more often than not.
Desclafani has not been great in his last 2 home starts, mainly because hitters get a lot of solid contact off of him (41% MC, 41% HC). He had a 3-game stretch where he gave up a total of 1 run, so we know he has the ability to dig deep and deliver a solid performance. The Reds will need one from him tonight to pick up the win and stop the Dodgers’ 3-game win streak. He has the benefit of a very good bullpen to support him if he cannot go deep tonight.
LA has played their last 9 games at home and are “only” 10-10 on the road. While I don’t give too much credit to teams for how they win, I respect the fact that the Reds give a good effort at home and actually have an 11-9 record at GABP (3-1 in their last 10 games). The Dodgers have a scary lineup but the payoff on the home dog is worth the risk.
Baltimore Orioles @ Cleveland Indians
Reverse Juice: Indians RL +115
The fact that Dylan Bundy is on the mound for Baltimore and the Indians don’t have one of their big-name starters actually makes this line palatable. Bundy has not been good on the road and gives up a lot of contact. This is a tough combination against an Indians lineup that is desperately trying to get their act together and support their pitchers. They’ve gained momentum over the last 2 games, scoring 23 runs against Baltimore and Chicago. Bundy shouldn’t be horrible but I don’t see the Orioles keeping up with Cleveland.
Jefry Rodriguez has been a serviceable starter while the Indians have consistently been without one of their core arms. His 53.9% ground ball rate typically keeps opponents from blowing him up too badly and gets him into the 6th inning. Their bullpen can certainly hold it down for 3 innings while the offense grinds out runs throughout the game. Juice is too high on the money line and I like the fact that Cleveland has covered the run line in their last 5 wins. Today it offers a rare plus-money reward on this matchup.
