Wednesday’s “lucky 7” wagers were an overall positive at 5-2 with +3.21 units coming back to the bankroll. I had high expectations for the day, tempered with the underlying concern that about 10% of my bankroll was in play. A 3-0 start eased much of that concern and the evening round of games solidified a good day on the diamonds.
The most difficult element of handicapping MLB games, in my opinion, is modeling bullpen performance for a single game. I would even argue that it is next to impossible to accurately model relievers for one game, but that there is a reasonable amount of predictability for a unit over a block of games. Player availability can be clear based on usage in previous games, but the in-play situation in which the bullpen must operate in is much fuzzier. It is a matter of probability that plays out over multiple games where volatility is often noticeable.
Yesterday I saw the Phillies do everything but blow the game in the 9th after a commanding 8-inning performance from Jake Arrieta. Royals-White Sox went to the pens early due to injury and an ejection, putting two of the most volatile units out there for a majority of the game. Brett Gardner hit a go-ahead grand slam against Brandon Workman in the 7th, and the Rangers’ closer coughed up a run (and almost the game) in the 9th to spoil a significant run line win. Some of these situations worked in my favor, some did not. Living with close calls, disappointments, and shut-downs from bullpens is part of the sweat that baseball handicappers must go through. There’s a ton of games in the season and there will be high points, low points, and a lot of nothing when it comes to reliever performances.
There was a limited slate at the time of publishing this article Thursday morning due to it being a travel day and 3 games without posted lines. I’ll pass over ARI/ATL, CWS/DET, & BAL/TB for the time being. Despite only 7 games to handicap, I’m looking at 2 prospective winners this evening:
Kansas City Royals @ NY Yankees
The Royals avoid a sweep in Chicago with a 10-inning victory and a bench-clearing brawl initiated by my guy, Brad Keller. Actually, I’m slowly jumping off of the Keller train as he is regressing to a mid-rotation starter, but I digress. Homer Bailey gets the start fresh off of a 7-inning, no-run gem against the Indians. Any Reds fan knows Homer is capable of some amazing outings with a bunch of sub-par and bad ones in between. His other 2 starts can be put in the latter category, getting knocked for 10 runs in 10 innings against Minnesota and Seattle. Bailey takes his game on the road for the first time this season, “supported” by a poor bullpen that is somewhat stressed.
Enter Domingo German, who has sharpened in his last 2 outings with only 2 ER in 11 innings. Despite playing wounded, the Yankees still manage to put up runs and should do so against a “typical” Homer Bailey. German and the Yankees’ very good bullpen have a strong edge over this Royals team that has a hard time getting them on and across home plate. New York’s lineup is cobbled together but has a great opportunity to score early and often tonight.
WAGER: Yankees RL -110
LA Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers
LA has gotten things going again, winning 4 in a row at home that included a sweep of the Reds. They hit the road and visit Milwaukee for a showdown between division leaders. Julio Urias is making his last start before heading to the bullpen. He has struggled in his last 2 games, especially in a start against the Brewers where he gave up 6 runs in the loss. The Dodgers are 1-4 on the road in their last 5 and face a tough Brewers club.
Zach Davies has started his 2019 season yielding only 3 runs in as many starts. This includes a 7-inning, 1-run performance in LA last week. Milwaukee took 2 of 3 in that series and returned home to do the same against the Cardinals. The Crew has played very well at home and finds themselves small dogs in this series opener. One thing to note is that they hit lefties considerably better than their overall average, bolstering the probability of jumping on Urias and getting to a bullpen that isn’t lock-down. No idea why the Brewers are the dog here, making this wager is a no-brainer.
