I sat Tuesday out from MLB wagering as the betting slate showed me nothing appetizing to bite on. Instead, I gave a quick overview of a couple key matchups I am exploring for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Foxwoods Casino 301 at New Hampshire. Our team has also been grinding on the NFL divisional previews; the NFC West article is currently live now.
With the shameless plugs aside, I’ve circled a couple MLB games for Wednesday but only one position with my cash behind. We’ll look to continue our streak of Solo Shots (currently at 4 in a row) with a club that was hammered in retaliatory style 13-1 last night…
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Dust it Off: Braves -108
I was quite high on the Braves heading into Monday’s opener in Milwaukee for several reasons, though Housler and the depleted Brewers bullpen performed much better than expected. The young starters did well, considering the strong bats that each side threw at them. Milwaukee’s hammering of the Braves last night was a huge rebound for the home team that could very well stop the bleeding. Notwithstanding today’s outcome, these teams are still trending in opposite directions.
Milwaukee’s depleted bullpen has gotten some much-needed relief so far in the Braves series. They’ve pitched 6.1 innings without giving up any runs and have not used Josh Hader. Expect to see him if this afternoon’s rubber match is anywhere near close. Counsell’s shrewd management of the relievers in the last 2 games should pay off for them today (though it did make you scratch your head Monday evening at the time). With that said, I’ve adjusted the expected bullpen outputs to be effectively even for today’s game.
Keuchel v. Anderson
Dallas Keuchel has been quite effective since signing with the Braves, and appears to have hit a groove in his last 3 outings. His strongest suit is getting weak contact (22.4%) and a ton of ground balls (61.3%). 32 hits in 32 IP would be more troublesome if the ground ball and soft contact metrics were worse.
The most concerning thing with Keuchel is the outings with 3-4 walks. The ground balls may help him get out of some jams, but he’s not getting a ton of strikeouts to strand those runners. Free passes need to be cut down because he has been prone to giving up the long ball so far this season. His 3.09 ERA/4.51 xFIP discrepancy tells me he is living on the edge a bit, due in part to the inflated number of walks. Otherwise, I have no issues getting behind Keuchel, who could deliver a solid 6-7 innings for the Braves this afternoon.
Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee’s stopper and he was brilliant against the hot Atlanta lineup last night. Chase Anderson, however, is most likely not going to get 6-7 strong innings for the Crew today. His best work came in the early months of the season, but I can’t say there has been a significant drop-off in his performance this summer. Anderson continues to be a solid rotation guy and is fairly consistent in his outings (e.g., 5 innings, 2 earned runs).
Anderson’s 72 K/23 BB ratio is very good in my eyes. He only gets 36.9% ground balls, so strikeouts need to be a big part of his formula. Despite the low ground ball proportion, he is not a guy that gets excessively hammered for home runs (13.1% HR/FB) and gets a fair amount of soft contact (21.6%). Anderson is a quality arm.
After the Dust Settles
Yesterday’s beatdown should not have a significant effect on today’s game. I’m not a psychologist, but these guys are big boys and the Braves are still on the rise. They will have their hands full with Anderson and a Brewers offense that may have regained some confidence. I still prefer Atlanta’s lineup despite thinking that both starters should do well today.
Both bullpens are critical, though I contend that Milwaukee’s will be more so if Keuchel goes 7 and Anderson can only go 5. Hader is rested and ready to shut down the heart of Atlanta’s lineup late in the game if needed. It’s difficult to gameplan exactly how this series finale will play out, but my guess is that it will come down to which side gets the big inning and holds on tight.
