PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
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SEASON RESULTS:
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Week 1 Preview:
The buzz around the 2021 NFL season is as high as any season opening there has ever been. Sportsbooks are taking in record handles as the amount of options and opportunities for sports bettors are at an all-time high. As books have adapted how they accept bets and assign juice, the value with player prop bets has often trumped traditional against the spread and over/under lines. The BetCrushers Prop Corner continues to be a cornerstone for our overall betting portfolio. We spend hour each week breaking down numbers and matchups to find the bets with the best value. Here are our week one plays:
Our Picks:
Robby Anderson – Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
If you caught our weekly plays you noticed that we’re expecting some points in the Panthers and Jets game on Sunday. The storyline in the game features Sam Darnold facing off against his former team, and he’s not the only as wide receiver Robby Anderson also has revenge on the mind. Anderson exceeded expectations in his first season in Carolina and he’s set to and looking to duplicate and even expand on his success. The New York Jets have a few quality players on their defense, with the exception of the cornerback position. They’ll be overmatched against both Anderson and D.J. Moore. With the previous chemistry that Darnold had with Robby Anderson, we’re banking on the fact he’ll cruise past his yardage total, and actually be closer to 100 yards than 50.
Tyrod Taylor – Over 16.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
The Houston Texans are a mess of an organization that many people believe will finish dead last in the league. That’s certainly a possibility, and their best chance of winning a football game may rest here in week one as they host the Jaguars as slight underdogs. Tyrod Taylor is the default quarterback of the team and will start in replacement of currently displaced superstar Deshaun Watson. Throughout his career Taylor has been very cautious throwing the football and generally tosses bombs to single receivers, or checks things down. His cautiousness from throwing interceptions also results in him tucking and running when the first and second reads aren’t there. The Texans current group of wide receivers isn’t putting a lot of threat into opposing defenses, which means there may not be a lot of easy and open completions to be had for Taylor. He’s always been a mobile quarterback and has utilized his legs to his advantage, something that’s kept him around in the league for several years. The Jacksonville defense is suspect against both the pass and the run, so look for Taylor to take off and get a few yards on the ground.
Cole Beasley – Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
One of the top games of opening weekend showcases two of the last year’s playoff teams, when the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills offense was electric all of last season and in limited work this offseason looks really sharp again. They’ll have their work cut out for them against a very good Steelers defense, fresh off of a big contract extension for their leader T.J. Watt. Bills quarterback Josh Allen will spread the ball around to not only Stefon Diggs, but a gang of other capable receivers. The Steelers pass rush should result in some quick passes in what is expected to be a close game. Cole Beasley was a target magnet last year and although not his best receiver, he is Josh Allen’s favorite target. In their matchup last year Beasley snagged five balls before leaving with an injury. Anytime Beasley is healthy and his catch total is below 5, we have to take a shot at that.
Patrick Mahomes – Over 12.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
The best game of the weekend is in Kansas City, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs want to get the ugly Super Bowl defeat taste out of their mouth in a playoff rematch with the Cleveland Browns. Lost in the fact that Mahomes is one of the best passers in the league, is the fact that his athleticism often results in rushing yards and touchdowns. Mahomes actually averaged nearly 19 yards rushing a game a season ago as his football IQ can coerce him to run when the pocket collapses and he finds opportunities. The Browns have a solid pass rush, which means Mahomes won’t always be able to sit and wait for his weapons to get downfield. Don’t let the fact that the Mahomes is an elite thrower, distract you from some good value with this running prop bet.
Kyler Murray – Anytime TD Scorer (+130)
Kyler Murray started the 2020 season on fire before fizzling out a bit along with his teammates down the stretch. He scored 9 rushing touchdowns in his first 10 games. Murray was a true cash cow running the football, and as an anytime touchdown scorer. We’re back to the well in week one, expecting a rested and excited Kyler Murray to be the dynamic player he began last season as. Points should be plentiful in what’s expected to be a bit of a run and gun offensive performance for both teams against the Titans. Tennessee put some emphasis on trying to improve its paltry pass rush, so we’re planning to see Murray using his speed as a counter to that attack. With a trio of quality receivers, and pass catching running backs, the Titans can’t completely key in on Murray as a runner. When he gets into the redzone he has one of the best knacks at finding his way into the endzone. With odds at +130, don’t pass up on the opportunity to grab Murray and watch him get to those pylons.
Alvin Kamara – Over 95.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-110)
The offense for the Saints looks quite a bit different than it did on opening week a season ago. The big constant is running back Alvin Kamara, who takes aim on a neutral field against the Green Bay Packers. There are a lot of question marks on the Saints offensively, and that’s including quarterback Jameis Winston. Kamara won’t be a question though as he’s by far the most proven entity that will be incorporated into the game plan. His matchup with the Packers is tough, but don’t let the Packers defense scare you away. The Packers are excellent at defending the pass with a terrific secondary, but they’re really only average at defending the run. The strength of the Saints offense, besides Kamara, is their big, physical and talented offensive line. Kamara could have some nice gains on the ground, especially if he’s running late in the game. It’ll be hot in Florida, and in week one, that favors the endurance of the running back over a defense for certain. Going back to that terrific secondary, how much can the unproven receivers of the Saints really do against that unit? Winston is a gunslinger by nature, however he’ll really need to check down when the plays aren’t there down the field. Two last points to consider: First, Kamara’s backup, Latavius Murray was released this week. That means Kamara may see a few more snaps than previously. And second, head coach Sean Payton knows he’ll need to find creative ways to get Kamara involved in the offense. When you add all of that up, hitting the century mark between rushing and receiving should be very do-able for Kamara.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – Over 11.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Our final quarterback rushing prop of the weekend goes with new Washington quarterback and fan favorite Ryan Fitzpatrick. If you’re strictly playing the metrics, you’re actually not going to like this one as Fitzmagic didn’t average the 12 yards rushing he’ll need to hit his over prop. That’s because he’s very selective on when he decides to take off and run. That’s understandable when you’ve taken the beating that he’s taken at this stage in his career physically. He’s still not afraid at all though of taking off with the rock when he wants to, and is generally really good when he does. If you’ve gone back and studied the games when he has had several rushes or yards, it’s usually in big game type situations. (That’s generally the case with most quarterbacks). This particular game isn’t necessarily huge, however it kind of is for Fitzpatrick. He wants to set the stage and show he’s a leader early on in this offense. Against a good pass rush and defense, he’ll put his neck on the line to pick up third down conversions and win over his teammates. At just 11.5 yards, it’s not impossible he could exceed that on one run.
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