The NASCAR Cup Series’ regular season finale is situated at one of the world’s most famous tracks, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. It’s the last chance for many drivers to score an eleventh-hour victory and backdoor their way into the playoffs. Of course, this will be at the expense of someone currently on the bubble. Buckle up, because it’s the BetCrushers.com Brickyard 400 NASCAR race preview.
The Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Indianapolis Motor Speedway (IMS) is often called “The Brickyard” because of the all-brick surface it had back in the early 1900s. Only a strip of bricks at the start/finish line remain exposed today. The 2.5-mile rectangular oval track is best known as the home of the Indianapolis 500, but has also been the host of NASCAR’s Brickyard (insert sponsor name here) 400 since 1994.
The 2019 running is the second, and last, time that the Brickyard 400 will be the final regular-season race of the Cup Series circuit. It will swap weekends with Daytona’s Coke Zero 400 in 2020 as the last hope for many drivers to make the postseason. The Brickyard 400 has an important history, but several factors have caused this to be one of the least-attended races of the year.
From a tactical standpoint, the track’s characteristics lend itself better to open-wheel racing than it does stock car racing. The four corners are hardly banked (9.2 degrees) and are ill-suited for racing on multiple grooves. This eliminates good opportunities for positioning and passing there. The straightaways are very long at 5/8-mile and the short-end chutes are 1/8-mile long.
Don’t worry, there will be two-wide racing in the corners. Just because the action through the four turns is generally low-key doesn’t mean that there won’t be any battling. The long straightaways offer plenty of potential for wicked restarts, especially deep in the race.
The Playoff Picture
Erik Jones’ win at Darlington last week solidified his appearance in the postseason. Unless a first-time winner in 2019 takes the Brickyard 400 checkered flag, both the 15th & 16th positions will be up for grabs on Sunday. Clint Bowyer and Daniel Suarez will defend the final two playoff positions from Ryan Newman and Jimmy Johnson.
Whether it is Bowyer, Suarez, Newman, or Johnson that fills out the bottom of the playoff picture, we don’t project any of them reaching the second round. Regardless, those four guys have been making things interesting the last couple weeks. Heres the current scenario:
This is not a must-win race for any of the top five drivers when it comes to playoff points, but guys like Hamlin, Truex, Logano, and Keselowski cannot afford to lose more ground to Kyle Busch. Hell, nobody can afford to fall further behind. In fact, a guy like Kevin Harvick could really use those crucial five playoff points from a win at the Brickyard 400. We have Harvick sneaking his way into the final four at Homestead in November, so this one is especially important to us.
Early Follows and Fades
The opening odds for Sunday’s race at IMS reflect the pecking order in the season standings. 2015 & 2016 winner Kyle Busch tops the list at +330 with defending champion Brad Keselowski a little further down the line at +880. Brad is arguably undervalued on the early-week board, so this bodes well for some matchup opportunities with him.
Our Brickyard 400 Watchlist
Your Defending Champion, Brad Keselowski
Indy hasn’t necessarily been one of Brad’s strongest tracks until he finished as a runner up in 2017 and then won in 2018. His 2018 win came on the heels of a winning night at Darlington before going onto another strong finish at Las Vegas. Brad T5’ed Bristol and Darlington this year after a disappointing finish at Michigan, and should be a Top-10 guy this weekend. Look for his matchups when that market opens up soon.
Denny Hamlin, Yet Again
Here’s another week where we continue to beat the drum for Denny Hamlin. His opening odds of +550 lead me to believe that betting opportunities maybe slim, but we must keep him on our watchlist. Despite a tough blow at Darlington last weekend, he is sustaining one of the hottest streaks on the Cup Series circuit. Additionally, he has T5’ed four of the last five races here.
Kyle Larson, With a Head of Steam
Larson is another guy who is hungry and making a big push into the playoffs. He is in a tough position without a win this year but has been running strong since his second-place finish at Chicago. Kyle’s first three years at Indy were very productive, though he has disappointed in 2017 & 2018. This kid has put together a strong second-half to the season and could be placed in some favorable matchups that we will look to pound.
Ryan Newman in the Pack
Other than getting knocked out of the 2016 Brickyard 400, Ryan Newman has been consistent at IMS throughout his Stewart-Haas and RCR days. Newman is right on the edge of the playoff line and needs to beat out Bowyer or Suarez to make it into the postseason. There’s some bad blood between him and Suarez right now, so he could be a riskier play considering that these boys may be involved in some extra-curricular activity. Both know what is on the line and I expect them to run hard and with purpose.
Newman is a crafty vet who has hung in there the past few seasons despite not a ton of postseason success. However, he is fairly reliable to place right around the tenth position at Indy. Because of that, we will be looking hard for plus-money opportunities to match him up with.
Who to Fade at The Brickyard?
Finding the right guys to bet against requires searching for the right combination of poor form and lackluster results at Indy. While there’s plenty of guys that fit this mold, selecting the ones that may be overvalued is the key. Here’s a couple that might check those boxes when the books extend their full matchup bet menus.
Aric Almirola
Aric Almirola sits comfortably in 14th place in the season standings and has no risk of missing the postseason. He’s generally been a mid-teen finisher this season, including last week’s 17th-place finish at Darlington. Almirola has performed about according to plan when you look at his last few years at the Cup level.
We have Aric on our fade list primarily because The Brickyard isn’t one of his best tracks. He hasn’t cracked the Top 20 at Indy in four of his last five races. Pairing Almirola against a driver in the same tier like Ryan Newman could be profitable. Other favorable matchups include Paul Menard and Kurt Busch.
William Byron
William Bryon snookered us last week when he took the pole at Darlington. Are we holding a grudge after his 21st-place finish? Nope. But we also recognize that Byron may have settled back into a phase of mediocrity. And that is something you can profit from. The young pilot of the #24 Chevy has raced at IMS only once, logging a 19th place finish. Expect a repeat this year and look for opportunities to wheel against him with guys like Newman and Menard.
The Weekend Schedule
Sunday’s 400-mile race gets rolling around 2:00 p.m. eastern. Dual practice sessions go off Saturday morning and early afternoon before the Sunday morning qualifying runs. We will pay careful attention to the multi-lap averages from practice on the 2.5-mile track. The condensed Sunday schedule poses challenges for bettors, so you’ll have to be quick on the draw when the books post their full menus.
We will post our final handicapping article on BetCrushers.com at some point Sunday, depending on the books’ timelines. Want to be notified when new articles are published to BetCrushers.com? Subscribe below…
