The first weekend of MLB action brings back day baseball and a full 15-game schedule to dig into. Yesterday, I was on the wrong end of an absolutely spectacular hitting display by Paul Goldschmidt to lift the Cardinals over the Brewers. Matt Harvey had only one blemish against Oakland, a 2-run HR that should have been the deciding factor in the game. The A’s pen (their strong suit) was sloppy and put guys on for the Halos’ big hitters to bring home in the 8th. A pair of bad game reads on my part.
After a couple days of action, it’s now time to jump in and make some plays. Always searching for the live dog, but you’ve gotta use the run line to get value out of favorites. Today’s menu is looking like a buffet with 6 plays already loaded.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Sonny Gray takes the mound for the new-look Reds. Cincy was very active in the offseason, bolstering their outfield and adding some actual starting pitchers to the rotation. The Pirates’ youngster Trevor Williams isn’t a high-K guy but he doesn’t fall prey to the long ball as much. I don’t expect much out of the Pittsburgh lineup (which many don’t) but anything goes when these two NL Central rivals get together.
Back to Gray: it is hard to expect brilliance out of him, but he could get out to a good start this season against the Pirates hitters. His stint with the Yankees fell well below expectations though his services are well above the Reds’ rotation level in 2018. The big question for the Redlegs is how well their offense will gel early in the season, especially without Gennett in the mix. Nonetheless, the price is right to take an early shot on some Reds firepower this afternoon.
WAGER: Reds RL +155
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis was absolutely mashing last night behind Goldy’s big bat. Both starters got touched up and the calls to the bullpens came early. With many things being comparable between these two clubs, it all comes down to starting pitching. The Cardinals’ Hudson is someone who will put runners on the bases and pitches to contact. Woodruff for the Brew Crew has more strikeout ability but also can get runners on. This could very well come down to whether Goldschmidt is still in Beast Mode or if Milwaukee can keep him to a 1-3 kind of day.
WAGER: Brewers RL +160
Arizona Diamondbacks @ LA Dodgers
Arizona got a big win in a bounce back spot last night after getting throttled on Opening Day. Comparing starters, you’ve gotta like Maeda’s low-on base tendencies against a lineup that struggles with consistency and lacks power. The Dodgers’ hitters tend towards the opposite and should be able to take advantage of Godley tonight. The key is stretching Maeda through 6 solid innings before turning it over to a bullpen that is inferior to Arizona’s. A short run line number reflects the disparity, so you can’t quite call it a value play.
WAGER: Dodgers RL +110
Baltimore Orioles @ NY Yankees
Game 2 of this series brings us a battle of the “haves” and the “have-nots”, or a showdown between David v. Goliath you could even say. There’s not a whole lot you can truly say about the disparity between these clubs. Karns is a starting pitcher only on a team like Baltimore, though he has been effective in getting some swings and misses against the Yankees’ formidable lineup.
If you’re going to play this one at a huge -380-ish money line you’ve gotta look at laying the -1.5 runs. Paxton comes to the east coast as a solid 1.2 WHIP and good K rate kind of guy. The Yankees have the bullpen to shut any late-game antics down and their lineup’s production and power goes without saying. A small part of my soul died with this massive lay, but it’s a bet regardless.
WAGER: Yankees RL -185
Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals
Yuck. This one is far from must-see TV, but is a run line “value play” for us. Slight overall edge goes to the Royals as a reflection of a bet against Lopez. Dude’s got some heat but he sure can put runners on the base paths. KC’s Junis is unproven but should outduel his counterpart as long as he doesn’t serve up the long ball. KC should be able to move runners around the base paths and the RL payoff is worth the risk.
WAGER: Royals RL +170
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
Let’s not waste a lot of time on this one. Starters are raggedy, the offenses are anemic, and the bullpens can’t be counted on to keep a game under wraps. We’re grabbing a reaonsable payoff for a home team looking to shake off the Opening Day shutout and get a good win.
