A ride with the Phillies on the run line for their 3rd straight game results in another loss with that squad. Spoiler alert: I’m not on Philly this evening. That being said, Monday was a one-play day that knocks us back to -0.63 units on the season. Bouncing around the dead-even mark in the first couple weeks, but steadily approaching a higher level of confidence in modeling games using projections and current data.
Tuesday’s action features some good arms on the mounds. No use in beating around the bush, let’s dive in…
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
Your 2018 World Series Champions started the season with an 11-game road trip that did not go well at all. Coming home with a 3-8 record was something that the team probably did not foresee in late March, but that’s where they’re at. Before the season started, I adjusted things a tick down here and there for the Sox but not to this degree.
The Blue Jays come to Boston for an afternoon AL East showdown of two 3-8 clubs. Matt Shoemaker gets the start and the task of raining on the Red Sox’ home opener, even if the actual rain isn’t expected until this evening. He’s a solid pitcher that can generate some Ks, though he may get knocked around if the sinker isn’t doing work. The Jays did not score more than 2 runs in 4 games vs. Cleveland prior to their trip to Boston.
Chris Sale takes the mound for an afternoon start on the home opener after a rough road trip. Think the Boston faithful with be in prime form to welcome their champs home? Absolutely. And this is the guy you want to give the ball to in this situation. His fastball/slider/changeup combo is unparalleled, racking up Ks with a dominating swing-and-miss rate. Sale had a rough outing to start in Seattle (as did the whole team) but did significantly better in Oakland. The Ks weren’t there, though the weak bats of the Blue Jays could be the perfect combination for a Red Sox team looking to get right. Sale should be dominant, but I can’t lay -235 on him.
WAGER: Red Sox RL -120
Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds
Miami comes to Cincy looking to put a couple in the win column against a Reds club that has dropped 8 in a row after an Opening Day win. Jose Urena is a low-K guy that has given up at least 4 runs and posted a 2+ WHIP in his 2 starts this year. He gets the benefit of a Marlins lineup that has arguably exceeded their offensive expectations early.
The Reds put their ace, Luis Castillo, out there to stop the bleeding and get this team a win. I am very high on this young arm, who should have a great outing and continue a season of high-K, low run (only 1 ER in each start) outings. 7 innings of great work would be a huge boost to the Reds, though 6 is a more reasonable expectation. Their bats woke up in Pittsburgh and now it’s time to put that together with a great pitcher on the mound. Swimming upstream with the Reds, but Castillo is the guy you want to back.
WAGER: Reds RL +110
Minnesota Twins @ NY Mets
If Kyle Gibson’s sinker is not working today, the Mets could have a good offensive day at Citi Field. And when you’ve got Jacob deGrom on the hill for you, you don’t need many runs to get a commanding win. He’s notched 24 Ks in 2 starts this season but faces a tougher Twins lineup. His slider/changeup/sinker repertoire generates over a 50% ground ball rate with excellent command. The Mets bullpen has struggled with giving up runs, so it is imperative that deGrom gets a superb 7 innings in. Minnesota can be trouble, but I’ve gotta back the ace here.
WAGER: Mets RL +105
Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
While you can’t put Zack Greinke in the same category as Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom, and maybe not even with Luis Castillo for that matter, he’s still a pitcher that can lead Arizona to wins. His first start against LA was a disaster (which they always seem to be against his former club), but had a nice bounce back against the Padres. These teams’ offenses are going in different directions: the Rangers did not score more than 2 runs in their last 3 games against the Angels, while Arizona has scored 5 or more in 8 of 10 games this season. Mike Minor can be respectable, but his 66% fly ball rate could be trouble tonight.
