The Rocky Mountain Hangover strikes again. San Francisco returned home yesterday after a series in Colorado only to get steamrolled 7-0 by Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds. This makes the Hangover a perfect 6-for-6 in 2019. It’s truly difficult to split out where the Hangover impacts began and Castillo’s ended last night, but the Giants were not up for the task of breaking the streak.
Well, enough of those shenanigans…my run line plays cruised on in for a 3-0 Friday. I’m pretty sure I haven’t had such a smooth betting day all season. And by that, I mean the three teams I played (Red Sox, Twins, and Dodgers) rolled their opponents by a combined score of 25-1. Thanks for the cooperation, boys.
I’m just going to drop the subject of the Mariners and their “massive power” lineup. As long as that narrative is still out there (especially against lefties) there may continue to be value in fading Seattle. They were unable to score any runs against lefty starters in the last 2 nights. Boston’s offense is clicking and has to be the main reason to back them today.
The Tigers just couldn’t crack Odorizzi last night, who continues to impress this season. His form meshed well with Detroit’s generally low-impact offense to result in 7 innings of 1-hit work while Tyson Ross continued his decline. Again, as much as the Twins are the side this afternoon I cannot lay -160 with Pineda on the mound. Spencer Turnbull has the potential to keep the potent Minnesota offense somewhat in check, making this a pretty big pitching mismatch. This is the reason why I’ll lay off of this matchup.
The Dodgers returned the favor to the Nationals with a 5-0 shutout. This was the finale for my betting card and in full disclosure I slept like a baby while that one rang the cash register. Wednesday and Thursday were recovery days from a rough Tuesday while Friday’s 3-0 pushed the week to 9-6 for +3.45 units. Let’s keep grinding with a full MLB day today…
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
Since my game flow modeling handicapping supports the general notion that these teams are trending in opposite directions, this is a no-brainer play for me. King Felix comes off a pair of rough starts against the Yankees and Cubs and gets thrown into the fire against a Red Sox lineup that has gotten their shit together. Boston’s offense laid a couple eggs in Baltimore but has otherwise scored 68 runs in the other 8 games in their last 10. Felix will have his hands full this afternoon.
Rick Porcello started the season terribly, giving up 16 runs over 7.1 innings in his first 2 outings. Since then, he’s given up no more than 3 runs per start and has gone at least 6 innings in his last 3 games. As opposed to his counterpart today, his current form is solid. These two teams’ offenses and bullpens are trending in the opposite directions over the last couple weeks. With the numbers behind my propensity to fade the Mariners right now, this is a “green light” run line play despite having to lay the number.
Go With the Flow: Red Sox RL -115
Washington Nationals @ LA Dodgers
As good as the Boston play feels, this one feels as bad. And it’s because we all know that Max Scherzer will get his act together and shift from producing quality starts to banging out the lights-out starts everyone expects from him. He continues to go deep into games, which minimizes exposure to one of the worst bullpens in the league. Scherzer gives up a couple runs in his outings but is a strikeout machine. This could challenge a potent LA lineup, but can he get the win without much run support?
The question of how much support he will get comes down to the effectiveness of Walker Buehler. It’s common knowledge that the Washington offense is truly struggling right now, but they have the personnel to get runs…if they can execute. Buehler has not been great in his last 3 starts, but he’s only given up 3 runs in each and is getting plenty of strikeouts. Limiting walks seems to be a big emphasis for him, although the long ball can be his nemesis.
There is a clear offensive disparity between these 2 clubs so the quality of pitching today is the main determinant of whether Washington can support Scherzer, and likewise, if the Dodgers’ bats can stay hot and make Max labor. Just like the Seattle/Boston matchup, the direction that these teams are headed in is the difference-maker when handicapping them. Washington is 3-7 in their last 10 while LA is 7-3. In those periods, the Nationals are 2-6 on the road and the Dodgers are 4-1 at home. Furthermore, the Nats have only scored 28 runs in those 10 games with 16 of them coming in 2 games. Feast or famine for sure. I’m going with famine tonight.
