Saturday’s 1-3 run line result was less than great, skimming 1.55 units from the season total that now sits at -0.93 units. Cardinals, Phillies, and Angels were poised to return midrange plus-money payouts but only LA got the money. All of the run line losses were straight up losses, so a lot of juice was saved when compared to laying the favorite (though I can’t say that laying -170 with Atlanta was even a consideration).
Cardinals let one slip when it went to their bullpen, and the Phillies could not get to Pineda early; a key that I highlighted in yesterday’s article. Getting to the Twins’ worn out bullpen was essential to building a healthy cushion but Philly was unable to do so. The Angels left a lot on base early, though Drew Smyly couldn’t get out of every jam he got himself into. Mike Trout was constantly on base and touched them all on a grand slam that was all that the Halos needed to get the +145 RL win.
Speaking of leaving guys on base, the Braves stranded 10 runners in 4 innings and paid the price. Alcantara was not dazzling but he did a great job of limiting damage from five walks and some fielding errors, keeping the Marlins in the game long enough to get the 4-2 win. There’s a rack of plays today, so here we go…
Minnesota Twins @ Philadelphia Phillies
One of the most intriguing games of the afternoon is of particular interest to me for evaluation purposes. You can’t expect the Philadelphia offense to crank out runs on this level over the long haul. Scoring 8 runs or more in 5 of their 7 games is very impressive, but they run up against a young ace in Jose Berrios today. He can go deep into the game and has the potential to keep guys off the bases with a high-K rate. A lot of his success depends on whether he has command of his curveball to accompany a strong fastball.
To get the series sweep, the Phillies throw Zach Eflin at the Twins in front of their power-hitting lineup. He is probably a 5-inning guy but should be effective against Minnesota’s good bats. Eflin has great command and generally limits free passes, though he typically cannot stretch out to 6 or 7 innings. With an above-average bullpen waiting to take over this approach is a good way to keep the Twins’ offensive output at bay.
WAGER: Phillies RL +160
Washington Nationals @ NY Mets
Max Scherzer looks to get revenge for the Opening Day 2-0 loss to the Mets, where he went deep but didn’t get any run support. The Nats want to leave town with a series win and square up the season matchup with their fellow NL East contender. It’s tough to make money betting against Scherzer, especially when he eats up a lot of innings. He’ll need to go 7 to keep the exposure to Washington’s terrible bullpen limited…something that is a distinct possibility in Queens this afternoon.
Zach Wheeler is coming off of a lackluster start in Washington one week ago. He struck out 7 but gave up 4 runs in 5 innings of work. Wheeler will need to smooth out his effort today against a good Nationals lineup to keep the Mets in it. I still think their lineup is more reliable when it comes to getting on base, though converting that to runs may be the challenge against Scherzer in their own ballpark. Should be a tough bet to cash, but I’m on the dog here.
WAGER: Mets +125
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
Someone should check SunTrust Park, but I think the Braves may still have some runners stuck on the bases this morning. Runners LOB is part of the game, though Atlanta did it with style last night by leaving the bases loaded in the 3rd and 4th then stranding two men in the 5th and 6th. Most MLB bettors realize that not cashing in on these opportunities usually leads to failure…and yesterday was no exception. Props to Sandy Alcantara for working out of some tough jams, some of which were created by him walking batters and others by the shaky defense behind him.
Caleb Smith will need to be sharp today if the Marlins want any chance to win this one. His changeup/slider repertoire can get a lot of strikeouts, but he’s the only person standing between the Braves’ potent lineup and a volatile Miami bullpen. The Marlins took advantage of Atlanta leaving the door cracked last night, despite a clear advantage with their hitters. Sean Newcomb must be more effective at keeping his pitch count low, as compared to the 10 runners he allowed over 4 innings against the Cubs.
WAGER: Braves RL +125
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Cubs exploded for 10+ runs in both of their last 2 games against division-leader Milwaukee. Although they split those games, confidence has to be growing with their hitters. They’ve had plenty of scoring opportunities this season but their run output has not reflected it…at least until this trip to Milwaukee. Starter Kyle Hendricks did not have a good outing in Atlanta, though he could get plenty of support from Chicago’s hot bats.
Milwaukee’s bullpen has gotten hammered by the Cubs in the last two games. The good news is that their core relievers were not part of the fray last night and should be available to limit any late-game damage today. Zach Davies is a pitch-to-contact guy that got bounced around by the Reds, of all teams. Typically, however, he is able to limit the damage and not give up huge innings. Going for the big payout on this one.
WAGER: Brewers RL +170
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
I’m still trying to figure this Cardinals team out…and it is costing me a few bucks along the way. San Diego has won 3 in a row and has a chance to sweep the Redbirds this afternoon. Their streak rides on the left arm of Matt Strahm who was shelled in Arizona, giving up 5 runs in less than 3 innings of work. His curve and slider can be nasty, but if not, the Cardinals strong bats can take advantage of mistakes and lack of control like the D-backs did. Not sure you can expect that bad of an outing again here though.
Veteran Adam Wainwright tries to salvage a win out of their home opener series against the Padres. He had a clunky start at Pittsburgh and must improve his control and limit walks to give St. Louis a shot to win today. Though the bullpens are comparable, I still give a strong edge to the Cardinals’ offense and their desire to get back on track before hosting the Dodgers tomorrow night.
WAGER: Cardinals RL +160
LA Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies
Simply stated, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions wrapping up the MLB week in the standalone spot. This is undoubtedly a lopsided matchup but there are a couple points of concern for Dodgers’ backers. Their bullpen is a huge liability and we don’t know if Urias can give them 6 good innings while the bats put up runs against Bettis. Regardless of these flaws, a slight run line favorite play is what I’ve got here.
