ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Tennessee Titans -125
Indianapolis Colts +145
Jacksonville Jaguars +800
Houston Texans +3200
You don’t have to look at the divisional odds to know that the AFC South is clearly a two team race for first place. The Jaguars have what they believe is their future face of the franchise, however it’s hard to imagine them being serious contenders at this stage of the game. The Texans have the biggest question mark with quarterback Deshaun Watson’s uncertainty, although at the time of this article it looks like he’s probably on his way out. Indianapolis has the more complete team, while Tennessee has some more proven explosive stars. The margin between the two is so close that it’s truly a coin flip for South supremacy.
Indianapolis Colts
2020 Record – 11-5
2020 Record Against the Spread – 8-8
After a one year rental of Philip Rivers at quarterback, the Colts brought over the Eagles Carson Wentz, in hopes that a change in scenery and a reuniting with head coach Frank Reich will prove fruitful. The team looks fortunate in the fact that Wentz looks as though he’s recovering quickly from an early offseason injury and should be ready for the first week or two of the season. This Indianapolis Colts team is built on toughness and grit, and won’t win the award for flashiest team in the league.
On the subject of not being flashy, the strength of the Colts starts up front with their big men. Eric Fisher joins the team at left tackle and should fit in nicely on the left side with Ryan Kelly and Quenton Nelson, who is returning from his own injury. This is a big and physical group that will pave the way for 2nd year back Jonathan Taylor, and a trio of skilled backs behind him. At wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton looked to return from a disappointing 2020, but a late preseason injury is going to force him to miss some time yet again. The player to really watch is second year breakout candidate Michael Pittman, Jr. Ultimately, how impactful this offense can be, as with most teams rest with the quarterback. When Carson Wentz has been good in his career, he’s been really good. But when he’s been bad, he’s been pretty awful.
The Colts big defensive addition in the offseason was utilizing their first round pick on defensive end Kwity Paye who they hope will shore up pass rush on the edge. Darius Leonard anchors and captains the linebackers and despite his accolades is an underappreciated player. The secondary needs to play well and help create turnovers utilizing their speed and depth. The secondary is a pretty steady and workable unit, at least enough to not hurt this team. Let’s keep the Colts breakdown brief and to the point. If Carson Wentz plays like he did with Frank Reich in Philadelphia, this team will be good and definitely could and probably should make the playoffs. If he plays like he did his last two years in Philadelphia, this team could find themselves on the outside looking in again when the playoffs come around.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 23rd (.478)
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -130, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
It’s really tough to predict the record for this team until we get a feel for how the team looks with Wentz at the helm. For now, we’ll give it a 10-7 nod with a slight lean towards this team being more likely an 11-6 type of squad.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop and Future Bets
Point totals and wins ATS could be tricky with this team so we’re looking more at what opportunities are out there with the season win total (it’s the juice that’s scary here). Other than that, it’ll be some individual player performances after we get a feel for the team.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Jack Doyle (TE), Michael Pittman, Jr. (WR), Colts (DST)
When he can stay healthy, Jack Doyle has been a pretty productive player at the tight position if you need a sleeper. Mo Alie-Cox will steal some targets, but he should be able to find some decent volume from a new QB who has always thrown heavily to his tight ends. Michael Pittman, Jr. showed flashes as a rookie, and if can get on the same page with Wentz could become a Pro Bowl type player. If you need a sleeper or matchup defense this Colts defense could be sneaky good getting to the quarterback and creating turnovers. The running back by committee should steer you away from the ground game with this team, at least unless someone jumps ahead of the group.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 Record – 1-15
2020 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
Minshew Mania is officially over in Duval, as the team shipped it’s brief phenom to Philadelphia for a sixth round conditional pick. In reality, it ended when the team secured the first pick in the draft, which was subsequently used to select Clemson star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville is hopeful that Lawrence will be the type of talent that can make the Jaguars a contender for years to come under new head coach Urban Meyer. There’s a lot of work to be done in Jacksonville, and a lot to be excited about as well.
In addition to landing Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars have assembled some nice young talent at the skill positions. D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault, Jr. are both talented players that can develop with Lawrence. Marvin Jones was brought over from Detroit and will serve a role as a veteran presence on the offense. The team was dealt an unfortunate blow when their other top draft pick, Travis Etienne was lost with a serious Lisfranc injury in the preseason. Fortunately, they have James Robinson and Carlos Hyde available, so the immediate impact won’t be felt. The problem that the Jaguars have is, they’ve been building the team backwards, amassing talent at the skill positions without the matching talent in the trenches. The offensive line is going to be a problem, which could impede the development of Lawrence, and will make winning games in 2021 a challenge.
The defense is in a similar position as they’ve accrued some talent, however lack the muscle on the defensive line. The team will need to hold up from being pushed around and try to get teams into obvious passing situations, which is what they’re built for. Pass rushers Josh Allen and K’Lavon Chaisson are loaded with ability if they can simply be put into the right situations. The secondary is revamped, and the team is hopeful last year’s top ten pick C.J. Henderson can adjust and become the player that flashed in college. That’s of course assuming he isn’t traded, which is still being rumored. When you really look deeply at this defense, it’s got a few bright spots, however is has some glaring weaknesses and not a lot of depth.
2021 Strength of Schedule – 18th (.491)
Team Win Total Odds – 6.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-12
Assuming Trevor Lawrence is the answer at quarterback, then Jacksonville should be on the right path moving forward. There’s going to be a lot of growing pains this year, and we’re not sold on the transition of Urban Meyer from college champion to NFL head man. The Jaguars will need at least another offseason of building their offensive and defensive lines before they can be consistently competitive week in and week out.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Unders – Team Total Under
Scoring points in the NFL can be hard enough with a rookie quarterback under center. When you have an offensive line that struggles it can be even tougher. A few seasons from now we could be watching the Jacksonville Jaguars as an offensive juggernaut, in the 2021 season it’s going to be a grind.
Fantasy Players To Watch – D.J. Chark, Jr. (WR)
You probably picked up on the fact that we’re high on D.J. Chark as a legitimate threat at wide receiver. By default, he could end up catching 7 or 8 balls and eclipsing the 100 yard mark regularly as this team will likely be trailing a lot in the second half of games. He also showed that he can find his way into the endzone with 8 touchdowns last season so don’t let this poor team scare you away from grabbing Chark.
Houston Texans
2019 Record – 4-12
2019 Record Against the Spread – 6-10
Anytime your odds to win your division are resting around +3200 you can bet that it’s going to be a long season. After a several season run that saw the Texans battling for supremacy in the AFC South, the team is now in a rebuilding conundrum. The majority of that is because of what we can safely assume is former franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson’s precarious situation. Watson’s days in Houston are likely over, which means journeyman Tyrod Taylor will probably be the opening day starter. New head coach David Culley has the unenviable task of picking up the pieces and rebuilding the Houston Texans franchise.
The Houston Texans have been one of the more streaky and explosive offenses in the league, specifically throwing the football. That’s going to look a lot different in 2021 as the wide receiver room looks quite a bit different, and Tyrod Taylor is at the helm. Taylor doesn’t take a lot of chances throwing the ball, and with the exception of Brandin Cooks, there isn’t a lot to be excited about at the receiver position. The team is going to have to really rely on the running game behind their big offensive line. They do have a jumbled veteran backfield, and it will be interesting to see who emerges as the top dog? David Johnson is the incumbent and Mark Ingram II was brought in, but this should be Phillip Lindsay’s time to shine. No matter who gets the nod, there are going to be a lot of punts coming from the Texans offense, and probably not a lot of points.
It’s not just Deshaun Watson’s absence (or DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller on offense) that impact the look of this lineup, it extends to a defense that no longer has J.J. Watt captaining the defensive line. There are some serviceable players on the Texans defense, like tackling machine Zach Cunningham, however there are no real “difference-makers”. Still reeling from a lack of draft picks from the previous regime, the team was unable to really infuse any youthful talent on the defensive side of the ball. Their salary cap woes prevented any notable free agents from bolstering the unit as well. Things could get even worse for the defense if they end up on the field a lot, which is certainly a possibility.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 15th (.504)
Team Win Total Odds – 4 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 3-14
This team has recently hovered around the .500 mark, generally just topping it to scrape into the playoffs. There isn’t much to look at that would tell us that this year will be any different. Watson always at least gives them a chance.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Unders – Unders
The defense for the Texans is a liability, however when they play against other lesser opponents look for some low-scoring games. This offense will be focused on the ground game and won’t have a lot of explosive plays. As long as they’re not playing against one of the more dynamic offenses, you’ll hit some unders with this team.
Fantasy Players To Watch – None
We won’t often completely punt on throwing out at least some kind of fantasy football option, but there just really isn’t anything to get excited about here. Phillip Lindsay has the most upside, but with a crowded backfield on a team that will be trailing in a lot of games, he’s not exactly an appealing choice either.
Tennessee Titans
2020 Record – 11-5
2020 Record Against the Spread – 7-9
For a team with both some serious star power, and consecutive back-to-back strong seasons, the Tennessee Titans are generally entering the 2021 season fairly quietly. The team’s identity has moved from a stout defense to an explosive offense, and the addition of wide receiver Julio Jones only bolsters that balance. The team did make a few defensive additions via free agency and the draft and hope that it will be enough to give them another shot at the AFC title.
The current offense in Tennessee has to be downright scary for defensive coordinators around the league. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has proven that he is a top 15 quarterback in the league, not just a project or a question mark. He benefits from what could best be described as a nasty offensive line, with the strength on his blind side of Taylor Lewan and Roger Saffold. Where this team really gets exciting is at the skill positions, which boast arguably the top trio in the league with running back Derrick Henry and receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. If you’re trying to figure out a weak spot on this offense, it would have to be a combination of the tight end position, and or lack of depth overall. This group will no doubt be productive, however an injury to one of their big four on offense could really slow the Titans offense down.
A year ago the Titans defense really struggled, as a lack of a pass rush was an obvious challenge all season long. They should get some help in that department with the addition of free agents Bud Dupree and Denico Autry. It’s not an overstatement to say that these two players could have the single biggest impact on the success of the Titans in 2021. The linebackers are intact from a season ago, while the secondary looks a little different than it has in recent years. The team addressed the cornerback position in the draft with their first round pick Caleb Farley, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to make an immediate impact. With a little bit of a questionable secondary, it’s even more critical that the front seven can get to opposing quarterbacks to protect this group as it grows together. One thing to keep an eye on is the kicking game, as the team is still figuring out who will be their starting kicker. In a league that often comes down to one score, not having a certainty at the kicking position is not a spot you want to be in.
2021 Strength of Schedule – Tied 13th (.507)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -115, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
Assuming the Titans can split with the Colts, it’s very possible they could go 5-1 in their division. They wouldn’t even need to play .500 ball with the rest of their schedule to get to their 9 win total that’s floating out there. It’s a little tough to understand why this team isn’t getting a little more love heading into the season. The BetCrushers plan to take advantage of the lack of respect and jump on this bandwagon early.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Futures – Over Wins
If you don’t mind tying up some money in season long futures, jump all over the Titans over win total. There is almost no path that we can see outside of decimating injuries that would lead this team to not hit double-digit wins.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Derrick Henry (RB)
There’s not really much value with any of the players on the Titans offense because they’re so highly regarded. Derrick Henry is a weekly play against poor defenses if you play DFS, despite his price tag.
