ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Bovada sportsbook)
Indianapolis Colts +120
Tennessee Titans +175
Houston Texans +325
Jacksonville Jaguars +2000

The Houston Texans edged out the Titans for the AFC South in 2019, however it was the Titans who made noise defeating Tom Brady and the Patriots and advancing to the AFC Championship game. Neither of these teams are the pre-season favorite to capture the divisional title this year as it’s the newly minted Philip Rivers in Indianapolis who holds that honor. In what is normally a four team race, the Jaguars are looking ahead to possibly adding Trevor Lawrence as they’ll likely be watching the other three teams fight for supremacy in the South.

Indianapolis Colts

2019 Record – 7-9
2019 Record Against the Spread – 7-7-2

The 7-9 record produced by the Colts was pretty indicative of just how average this team was in most accounts last season. Jacoby Brissett was pressed into late duty and played what could be described as fairly well based upon expectations, which translated to average overall. Injuries hampered some key positions and the combination proved too much to overcome. The offseason brought the addition of veteran Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers and expectations are one again high in Indianapolis.

If it feels like we’ve had this analysis about a team having an offense in place and inserting a new veteran quarterback in a short window to try to make a run, it’s because the Colts are one of a few teams to fall into that category. The offensive line is still strong in Indy despite the departure of Jack Conklin and the running game which was already in sound shape with Marlon Mack added rookie Jonathan Taylor for some power, depth and production. T.Y. Hilton who missed several games in 2019, creating a sluggish offense is back and healthy and the team added rookie Michael Pittman, Jr. to play alongside of he and Parris Campbell. Jack Doyle is an underrated tight end and was joined by Trey Burton rounding out the roster. That brings us back to Philip Rivers at the ever so crucial quarterback position. Rivers looked downright confused and frustrated in his last hurrah with the Chargers. The organization believes he’s the perfect fit and the change of teams will be instrumental in bringing a spark back to his career as he chases that elusive Super Bowl.

The Colts big defensive addition in the offseason was grabbing former 49ers DT DeForest Buckner who should help shore up the interior of the defense. Darius Leonard anchors and captains the linebackers and despite his accolades is an underappreciated player. The secondary needs to play well and help create turnovers utilizing their speed and depth. Let’s keep the Colts breakdown brief and to the point. If Philip Rivers plays like he has through most of his career this team will be good and definitely could and probably should win the division. If he plays like he did last year in Los Angeles, this team could find themselves on the outside looking in again when the playoffs come around.

2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 16th (.502)
Team Win Total Odds – 9 Wins (over -130, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-6
It’s really tough to predict the record for this team until we get a feel for how the team looks with Rivers at the helm. For now, we’ll give it a 10-6 nod also remembering this team lost some tough games in 2019 with Adam Vinatieri missing some clutch kicks.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop and Future Bets
Point totals and wins ATS could be tricky with this team so we’re looking more at what opportunities are out there with the season win total (it’s the juice that’s scary here). Other than that, it’ll be some individual player performances after we get a feel for the team.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Jack Doyle (TE), Colts (DST)
When he can stay healthy, Jack Doyle has been a pretty productive player at the tight position if you don’t grab one of the elite guys. With Eric Ebron not on the roster and Trey Burton nursing injuries, he should be able to find some decent volume from a new QB who has always thrown heavily to his tight ends. If you need a sleeper or matchup defense this Colts defense could be sneaky good getting to the quarterback and creating turnovers. The running back by committee should steer you away from the ground game with this team, at least unless someone jumps ahead of the group.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2019 Record – 6-10
2019 Record Against the Spread – 7-9

The fans in Jacksonville aren’t too thrilled with the organization as they are barely masking the fact this team isn’t really looking to win right now. (See recent release of Leonard Fournette). With a guy like Trevor Lawrence waiting in the wings and a few potential young stars on the roster, it’s kinda hard to blame them. There are actually a few really good players on this team, but saying that there are some obvious holes would be putting it mildly.

If you want to talk about the positive with the Jaguars let’s start with their quarterback Gardner Minshew who is an ultimate fan favorite for his gritty play and quirky personality. It remains to be seen whether or not Minshew can be a franchise quarterback in the league, but the team is doing the right thing by giving him the keys to see what he can do. Despite some other QBs in the league getting some deserved hype, Minshew actually had more favorable statistics and film in many cases. Fortunately he is mobile as he’ll have his work cut out for him, as this offensive line is not very good. Add in the fact that the departure of Fournette leaves them with a running back grouping that isn’t keeping any defensive coordinators awake at night. Perhaps the best thing this offense has going for it is the emergence of D.J. Chark, Jr. who vibed well with Minshew and put up some really good numbers in 2019. The team drafted Laviska Shenault, Jr. in the second round and are hopeful he and Chark could provide a nice one-two punch down the road. In the interim Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook at least give the team some experience at the position and in the offense. Tyler Eifert was brought over at tight end as they’ll take a shot that he can stay on the field and give them some production that he flashed early in his career before injuries slowed him down.

Just a few years ago you couldn’t talk about the Jags without talking about their defense. When you earn the nickname “Sacksonville” and talk as big of a game as this group did, the play was magnified whether it ended up being great or poor. Only linebacker Myles Jack remains from that vaunted AFC Championship defense and he doesn’t have a ton of help heading into this season. What he does have playing next to him is second year man Josh Allen who was a bright spot for this team and looks as though he could be a star edge rusher and player for many years. The team added what they hope is premier talent in C.J. Henderson with the 9th overall pick in the draft and K’Lavon Chaisson at pick number 20. Where this defense could really struggle is against the run as the defensive tackle position looks very questionable, setting up some rough days for one of their free agent signings, middle linebacker Joe Schobert. Ultimately, this team is top heavy with a few really quality guys, yet very bottom heavy with some players that likely should be backups in this league. It could be a very long season in Jacksonville and it seems like a 6-10 showing would actually be considered a job well done.

2020 Strength of Schedule – 22nd (.494)
Team Win Total Odds – 4.5 Wins (over -120, under +105)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 4-12
Gardner Minshew has the type of moxie that could surprise some teams in the old “any given Sunday” spectrum. That being said, it’s difficult to look at where the wins are going to come from when you run down the schedule. 2021 should feature a new head coach and possibly the number one or a top three pick in the draft for the Jags.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
Early in the season this defense will be figuring things out and could be very vulnerable to giving up big point totals. Minshew could sling it around with a lack of a running game so it’s certainly possible to see those 31-20 type games with this team.

Fantasy Players To Watch – D.J. Chark, Jr. (WR)
You probably picked up on the fact that we’re high on D.J. Chark as a legitimate threat at wide receiver. By default, he could end up catching 7 or 8 balls and eclipsing the 100 yard mark regularly as this team will likely be trailing a lot in the second half of games. He also showed that he can find his way into the endzone with 8 touchdowns last season so don’t let this poor team scare you away from grabbing Chark.

Houston Texans

2019 Record – 10-6
2019 Record Against the Spread – 7-8-1

The Houston Texans seem to have their share of admirers and detractors heading into the 2020 season. There are some recognizable and familiar names, headed of course by Deshaun Watson on offense and J.J. Watt on defense, and some missing pieces as well, namely WR DeAndre Hopkins who is now in Arizona. The team took advantage of the early season struggles of the Titans and injuries for the Colts to finish with a 10 win season and take the division. Bill O’ Brien and his staff have made a lot of very interesting personnel moves over the past two years and it should be interesting to see how they stack up.

We’re not even going to spend more than this sentence telling you that Deshaun Watson is a good quarterback who competes at the highest level because you already know that. It’s the rest of the offense that is in question in terms of how far this team can go this season. The team is looking for more consistent play from their talented pair of tackles, Laremy Tunsil and the youngster Tytus Howard. There are six quality wide receivers on the roster, however is quantity better than the quality they lost with Hopkins? Will Fuller V and newly acquired Brandin Cooks can stretch the field which they hope will open things up for also freshly brought in David Johnson in the ground game. As we started by saying, there are some things that could work out well for this offense, and some things that may not end up being positive. Can Bill O’ Brien and his staff get these pieces to fit together and put drives together each game?

The front seven of the defense will continue to be a strength as the team hopes JJ Watt and company can finally stay healthy and hold things down. For this team to be effective on defense they’re going to need their stars on the defensive line to shine. The secondary is littered with re-treads and a lot of mostly unproven talent. We’ve painted a little bit of a picture of doom and gloom for the Texans this year but it’s really more of a cautionary tale than anything else. Staying healthy is as important for this team as any as they overall have a serious lack of depth, but if this team can keep it’s core on the field together they could once again with a lot of games this year. If you like moderate long-shots, take a closer look at this team. They have the star power talent and experience, particularly at quarterback to win against anyone in the league.

2020 Strength of Schedule – Tied 8th (.518)
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 8-8
This team has recently hovered around the .500 mark, generally just topping it to scrape into the playoffs. There isn’t much to look at that would tell us that this year will be any different. Watson always at least gives them a chance.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
The Texans were one of our best prop plays a year ago as we found success with Deshaun Watson regularly. This team tends to play well as underdogs getting points so if you want to play them against the spread that seems like your best bet there.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Deshaun Watson (QB),
We’re playing Captain Obvious here in mentioning that it’s not terrible to have Deshaun Watson as your FF quarterback. The truth of the matter is there is really no one else on this offense that we trust as a full-time week in and week out performer.

Tennessee Titans

2019 Record – 9-7
2019 Record Against the Spread – 8-7-1

Even though their brand of football wasn’t always the most explosive you’ll ever see, the Tennessee Titans were a fun story to watch in the second half of last year. Ryan Tannehill proved a lot of doubters wrong, the BetCrushers included, by putting together an MVP type stretch and guiding this team behind the broad shoulders of Derrick Henry into the AFC Championship game. They won’t sneak up on anyone this year, so let’s see if Tannehill and crew can continue their success.

For the first time in a while, the offense appears to be in less need of a breakdown than the defense in Tennessee. That is of course assuming that Ryan Tannehill’s play that we mentioned above was not a fluke and he can be at least a top 15 type quarterback again this year. Derrick Henry was a man possessed as he bullied his way to his own impressive streak and should continue that path again. The starting three wideouts, are a capable trio and fit nicely in the Titan’s offensive system. A.J. Brown has the ability to be one of the very best receivers in the entire league as he continues to grow and gain experience. Johnnu Smith was up and down in his relief of Delanie Walker and the keys to the tight end position are now in his hands moving forward. He’s another guy that could be a sneaky good player if he can figure out how to win his matchups consistently. The offensive line should be a good and physical group as we’ve come to expect for the Titans.

The most recent news shows Jadeveon Clowney now favored to end up with the Titans. (We actually reported yesterday that the Saints had a crack at him, which looks like isn’t going to happen). This would be a really big signing for a team that lost their leader on the defensive line in Jurell Casey to the Denver Broncos. In fact, this D-line looks like an average rotation if they are unable to bring Clowney into the mix. He would certainly give them a much needed boost and just seems like a good fit for this team. The linebackers aren’t the most well known group in the league, but they get the job done and play well together. The secondary again looks like it will be one of the better units in the league and they have more veteran depth than most teams. Veteran kicker Stephen Gostkowski was signed and that is worth paying attention to as he struggled before his injury and departure from the Patriots. With the style of play Mike Vrabel and the Titans like to play, you can’t underestimate the importance of a good field goal kicker.

2020 Strength of Schedule – 20th (.498)
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -110, under -110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 9-7
If Clowney ends up in Nashville this team could get to double digit wins and they are certainly capable of winning the division as they proved last year. We’ve got them marked at 9 wins with a slight regression and that questionable defensive line.

Possible to Wagers To Play – Point Totals / Under
Even though NFL totals were hitting at record paces on overs, and Titans games often are set low, this team is rarely in shootouts. If you take their game under totals you’ll win more than you’ll lose.

Fantasy Players To Watch – Johnnu Smith (TE)
There is a boom or bust aspect to tight end Johnnu Smith so it’s definitely a little bit of a coin flip if you want him on your team. A lot of people are high on him, and his flashes of excellence, as well as his intimidating physical presence make him someone to at least consider for this offense. Oh and just in case you’ve never watched football, get Derrick Henry too.