ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Cincinnati Bengals +150
Baltimore Ravens +220
Cleveland Browns +380
Pittsburgh Steelers +425
What does the upcoming season look like for the teams that represent the North in the AFC? Only time will tell, however you could make the argument that the whoever finishes in last place in this division very well could have made the playoffs in the NFC. There is still a physical style of defense played representing the blue collar nature of cities like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Baltimore, but these teams have all adapted to the modern day NFL as well. Each team boasts talented and speedy offenses that can test the best defenses within the league each week. As these teams beat up on each other throughout the course of the season, the team that captures the division might well be the one who best handles their business during their six divisional games. Along with the AFC East, the North has the potential to get multiple teams into the playoff dance.
Cincinnati Bengals
2022 Record – 12-4
2022 Record Against the Spread – 12-4
KEY ADDITIONS:
(OT) Orlando Brown, Jr., (TE) Irv Smith, Jr., (S) Nick Scott (CB) Sidney Jones IV, (DE) Myles Murphy
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(S) Jessie Bates III, (S) Vonn Bell, (TE) Hayden Hurst, (CB) Eli Apple, (RB) Samaje Perine
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The pundits who publicly stated the Bengals would regress after their Super Bowl loss to the Rams looked pretty smart after the first two weeks of the season as Cincinnati lost their first two games. However, as good teams do, they rebounded and ended up winning a dozen of their final 14 games, which had them in contention for a number one seed down the stretch. With the unfortunate circumstances regarding Damar Hamlin in their mega prime-time matchup with the Bills, they never got the opportunity to lock in that one seed and instead had to settle for AFC North division winners. After putting a thorough beatdown on the Bills in the divisional round, the team once again gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle in the AFC Championship game, before an untimely penalty helped push the Chiefs to a field goal victory and on to the Super Bowl.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #9
Finding your way to back-to-back Super Bowls is not an easy task, and yet was something the Bengals came ever so close to doing. The Bengals finished the season playing great football in all three phases of the game, and are poised to pick up right where they left off. We won’t spend a lot of time telling you that Joe Burrow is a top quarterback, or that the Bengals boast what most believe to be the top trio of wide receivers in the league with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. All this group needs around it is a small semblance of a running game, and some protection from the offensive line, and they can score on anyone. Joe Mixon gives them enough on the ground, although the team did lose a valuable backup when Samaje Perine left in free agency. If there is one reason to be extremely optimistic about the Cincinnati offense, its the five guys upfront on what is a vastly improved offensive line. Something that was the weakness of this team, is now a legitimate bonus for them. Cincinnati brought over left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. to anchor the left side of the line along with the much improved Cordell Volson. The addition of Brown, allows Jonah Hill to move to right tackle, where he should thrive next to veteran Alex Cappa. If La’el Collins can return from injury and to form, that will only give them even more depth and options at the position. The most interesting thing to watch on this offense is the swapping out of tight ends as Hayden Hurst moved on after one successful season filling the role. Former Viking Irv Smith, Jr. will assume the starting duties, in what will be a make or break year for the former Alabama star. In an offense that requires a lot of eyes on the wide receivers, tight end play can be a critical outlet for Burrow and the passing game.
Don’t let the star power on the offensive side of the ball completely distract you from just how good the Cincinnati defense is and will be. The Bengals front seven is as good as you’ll find in the league, with run stuffers like D.J. Reader and B.J. Hill in the middle, and talented pass rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard on the edges. The linebackers are all athletic and play cohesively as a unit. If there is a question on this defense, it would be the secondary, a unit that saw leaders Jessie Bates III and Von Bell depart in free agency. Nick Scott and Dax Hill are capable players, but it remains to be seen if they can seamlessly anchor the back end of the defense. The cornerback position could be a strength or a liability, as we’ll have to see how Chidobe Awuzie returns from his season-ending injury. If he returns to the level he performed to before his injury, Cincy has enough at the position to be fine.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 14th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 11.5 Wins (over +110, under -130)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
We’re going to have to go with the assumption quarterback Joe Burrow is going to be there for this team, at least for the majority of the season. As long as that happens, this team will once again find itself right in the thick of things in the AFC, with possibly their best overall roster since Burrow has been on the team. The “floor” of this team is possibly the highest in the entire league as it seems almost impossible this team wouldn’t win double digit games, as long as the QB is healthy. We’ll start conservative with them, if only for the fact they have six tough games in the division and a few other heavyweights on the roster.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The Bengals have been on an ATS roll for a season and a half, which would normally make us very cautious to back them as a movement back towards the mean would seem inevitable. Somehow, this team is still undervalued in our opinion. If you can get good numbers moving in your favor, don’t be afraid to put your trust in Cincinnati to get you to the payout window.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Joe Mixon (RB), Tee Higgins (WR), Irv Smith, Jr. (TE)
Ja’Marr Chase is one of the hottest names in fantasyland and he should put up elite numbers if you can grab him. The value really seems there with Tee Higgins though, who you can get much later, and should have numbers that aren’t that far off the pace of Chase. Another safe play is running back Joe Mixon who should see as many carries as any running back in the league. As long as he’s stays healthy he’s a guaranteed 1,000 yard guy and should get some red zone touches. In DFS circles, Irv Smith, Jr. is someone who may be worth a cheap risk at the tight end position. Burrow likes throwing to the tight end, and with the three wideouts on the roster, Smith, Jr. could have some really juicy matchups.
Cleveland Browns
2022 Record – 7-10
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-8-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(DT) Dalvin Tomlinson, (LB) Za’Darius Smith, (DE) Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (S) Juan Thornhill, (WR) Elijah Moore, (WR) Marquise Goodwin, (TE) Jordan Akins, (DT) Trysten Hill
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(S) John Johnson III, (DE) Jadeveon Clowney, (RB) Kareem Hunt, (QB) Jacoby Brissett
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Expectations for the Browns in 2022 had to be at least a little bit tempered, knowing that their quarterback acquisition of Deshaun Watson would have to wait out the first 11 games of the season before he would take the field. The team played hard behind veteran Jacoby Brissett and managed to stay in the overall playoff hunt. Watson returned late in the season, but was unable to give the team the spark they had hoped for to sneak into the playoffs. In fact, the QB struggled mightily, and looked flat out bad during what could probably be considered his “preseason” for the 2023 NFL season. Equally frustrating was a defense that many felt could be one of the better squads in the league, that instead found itself in familiar territory of being in the bottom tier of AFC. Rolling all of this up, and you have a typical 7-10 seasonal mark for a team that is still chasing the other organizations in the AFC North.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #2
If expectations were tempered in 2022 for the Browns, it’s safe to say that they’re sky high in Cleveland heading into the 2023 season. Are those expectations fair when you’re playing in a division with three stacked teams who have beaten your organization down for the better part of two and a half decades? On paper, you can argue that they’re absolutely realistic as the Browns have constructed a talented and deep roster. It all starts upfront for Cleveland as they have arguably the best offensive line in the league. (The Eagles probably edge them out slightly). As if their line wasn’t phenomenal across all five spots, they managed to grab potential high-reward tackle Dawand Jones who mysteriously fell to them in the draft. At running back, we may see even more of Nick Chubb this year, as Kareem Hunt is no longer sharing reps in the backfield with him. It’s imperative Chubb not only stays healthy, but is fresh during games and the season. At wide receiver, there is a lot of upside beyond their reliable number one, Amari Cooper. The Browns were able to snag Elijah Moore from the Jets in a move that has the potential to be a huge impact signing if Moore can get on track in Cleveland. Donovan Peoples-Jones also came on last season giving another deep threat to the offense. Jordan Akins joins David Njoku at tight end, giving plenty of weapons to quarterback Deshaun Watson. The above preview recap is really just noise, as the success or failure of the Browns in 2023 will ultimately come down to what kind of play we get from disgraced quarterback. Watson looked lost in his game action after his lengthy suspension, but with some live game action and a full offseason, you’d have to believe he should be much improved. Will he be the dynamic player he was with the Texans, or can he at least guide the offense enough to make them contenders? At this stage, it’s truly a guessing game on what we’ll get from Watson?
By all accounts, the defense for the Browns has been an underachieving unit since the arrival of star defensive end Myles Garrett. He’s truly been a one-man wrecking crew for a defense that has mixed and matched pieces, never finding the right combination. They’ll hope that changes this year, as there are some nice ancillary players to go alongside Garrett. Most notably, for the first time the Browns have a legitimate pass rusher on the opposite side with the addition of Z’Darius Smith. If teams are too focused on Garrett, Smith can absolutely make them pay. They also beefed up the interior by bringing in Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris. The play of the linebackers may be a bit shaky, although a healthy Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah can help support against the run and the pass. The secondary has some big names who haven’t necessarily matched with big time play. Denzel Ward is the most talented, however the addition of the steady Juan Thornhill from Kansas City could be a stabilizing player on the back.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 18th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -135, under +100)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
Volatility is a newer cliché gambling term that gets tossed around quite a bit. In the case of the Cleveland Browns, it’s 100% ok to use the adjective. The Browns could honestly make a run at a Super Bowl appearance because their roster is that solid, if Deshaun Watson can return to even a fraction of what he was in Houston. In fact, they’d probably be the favorites to capture the NFC South and AFC South, and possibly the NFC North. Our stance on the 2023 Browns is this: You gotta prove it. Can this team beat Cincinnati, Baltimore and Pittsburgh? Sure, they could, but we aren’t fully believing it until we see it.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Teaser Bets
Whether or not the Browns will be able to beat the teams in their division is still very much in question. Competing with them should not be however. This is a team that absolutely can benefit from getting six extra points if the numbers fall in line with a teaser bet. It’s highly likely they’ll be getting a couple of points at home against division rivals, so teasing them over a touchdown could definitely make sense.
Fantasy Players To Watch – David Njoku (TE)
Nick Chubb is as close to an automatic at the running back position as you’ll find. A guy we did not mention in our breakdown who could be an interesting fantasy candidate is athletic tight end David Njoku. Even though the coaching staff has stated they’ll be platooning at the position, Njoku should get the bulk of the snaps, and has the ability to be a really good tight end. As a guy that’s slightly under the radar, he could be an interesting and affordable DFS play with high upside.
Baltimore Ravens
2022 Record – 10-7
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-9-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) Odell Beckham, Jr., (WR) Nelson Agholor, (WR) Zay Flowers, (DE) Jadeveon Clowney
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(DE) Calais Campbell, (OG) Ben Powers, (S) Chuck Clark, (CB) Marcus Peters
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
For the second year in a row, in what seems to be a frustrating trend, the Baltimore Ravens played much of their season with key players on injured reserve. The offense lost running backs early, and an already thin wide receiver corp saw Rashod Bateman and Devin Duvernay go down with injuries. Of course, the main storyline was the injury to franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson, who missed the remainder of the season after sustaining a knee injury in week 13. Behind Tyler Huntley, the offense was never able to get things going, and ultimately the team just didn’t have enough firepower. Somewhat uncharacteristically, the fundamentals for the Ravens also disappeared at times during the season. This included blowing four pretty large fourth quarter leads throughout the season, something we don’t expect from this Ravens defense and head coach John Harbaugh. Despite all of this, the team did scrape together 10 wins, and earned a Wild Card berth, losing to the rival Bengals in the first round.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #8
Could we possibly be witnessing a slight transformation in Baltimore from a hard-nosed defensive team to an speedy offensive juggernaut? Head coach John Harbaugh would probably deny it, however you can’t ignore the moves in the offseason that were heavily focused on bringing in offensive speed. Maybe more consequentially, Greg Roman and his run-first style of offense is out as offensive coordinator, and former Georgia Bulldog coach Todd Monken is in. Expect to see a new look offense that is using the pass to set up the run, opposite of Roman’s somewhat dated philosophies. The Ravens have a very underrated offensive line that is very sound with their run blocking, so we will still see a lot of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, but expect them to be utilized differently, and in Dobbins case in the passing game more. Now two years removed from his major knee surgeries, Dobbins is poised to really find some running room in Monken’s offense. The passing game is where this team really needed to improve, and they certainly look like they have. In addition to bringing in veteran Odell Beckham, Jr., they drafted Zay Flowers, who gives them another element of speed on the outside and in the slot. Rashod Bateman will also return after missing a chunk of last season, giving the Ravens a formidable trio of wideouts for the first time in a long time. None of this factors in the offenses two best players, tight end Mark Andrews and quarterback Lamar Jackson. Andrews has basically been the second best tight end in the league over the past couple of seasons and the additional speed around him should only help him find more open spots in defensive zones. As far as Jackson goes, he asked to get paid, and get paid he sure as heck did. A motivated athletic quarterback, new weapons, and a new coaching scheme… There is a lot to be excited about with the Ravens offense entering the season.
The defense in Baltimore has carried this team for as long as they have been in existence as the Ravens. When you look closely at that side of the ball, it simply doesn’t have the grit, talent, or depth of a normal Raven D. Players come and go in free agency all the time, but some losses hit harder than others, and in Baltimore’s case, they didn’t really have anyone coming in this offseason. The leader of the defense was perennial Pro Bowler Calais Campbell, who will not only be missed in the locker room, but on the field as well. Even in his final seasons, Campbell was still a force on the defensive line. The secondary is thinner than it has been as well with not a lot of depth behind Marlon Humphrey at cornerback. Rock Ya-Sin has not been a corner that you can count on really since his promising rookie season. Kyle Hamilton did come on late at safety after a slow start in his rookie debut, and he and Marcus Williams give them a nice one-two punch behind the front seven. Roquan Smith has earned his pay after being traded from the Bears, and Patrick Queen is serviceable, even if he never lived up to his pre-draft hype. The part of the defense that has to be a little concerning is the possible lack of a pass rush. The Ravens were fortunate to get a bolt of juice from Justin Houston last season, but where will the rush come from in 2023? Odafe Oweh appears to who they are counting on to take that leap, which at this point is anything but a sure thing.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 21st Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over -150, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
Whew, what do we make of the Baltimore Ravens in the 2023 season? At first glance, it seems like this team is going to be really really good. They enter the season healthy, and with more potent offensive weapons than in prior years. We never claim to be strictly analytical bettors, but something just doesn’t feel “right” with this team. They’ll be good, and win some big games, but they won’t be able to separate themselves from the pack.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Totals – Over
With the offense set to be more explosive, and a defense that is thin at the cornerback position, we could see some high-scoring games with the Baltimore Ravens. For a team that is well known for their defensive prowess, getting some nice numbers on overs is something to watch for.
Fantasy Players To Watch – J.K. Dobbins (RB)
It’s always risky to take a player who you know is going to be in some sort of a running back by committee type situation, which is exactly where J.K. Dobbins is. How much help are we really providing though if we tell you to get Lamar Jackson or Mark Andrews? Dobbins is hopefully as healthy as he’s been since his major knee injury and with new weapons on the outside, he should find some nice running opportunities. Yes, he’ll frustratingly lose some carries to Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, and maybe even Melvin Gordon, but he should be a nice value pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Record – 9-8
2022 Record Against the Spread – 10-6-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(CB) Patrick Peterson, (OG) Isaac Seumalolo, (LB) Elandon Roberts, (OG) Nate Herbig, (WR) Allen Robinson II, (OT) Broderick Jones
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(CB) Cameron Sutton, (LB) Devin Bush, (S) Terrell Edmunds
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Pittsburgh Steelers failed to make the playoffs in 2022, however it may have been head coach Mike Tomlin’s best performance leading the black and yellow. The Steelers lost defensive game-wrecker T.J. Watt at the start of the season, which hampered their defense, as they were able to muster just two wins at the halfway point of the season. The team did rebound in the second half, finishing with yet another winning record at 9-8, and nearly squeezed into the final playoff spot. They lost that tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins, who also finished at 9-8. The team transitioned to young quarterback Kenny Pickett on the offensive side of the ball, and while he looked like a rookie at times, he also showed flashes of being a potentially great player in the league.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #16
Not enough attention is given to head coach Mike Tomlin never having a losing season in his 16 years as the leader of the Steelers. He’ll look to extend that streak once again, and if you’ve followed any of his press conferences he fully expects it. His offense was actually fairly effective last season, however they weren’t able to translate success at times moving the ball, with actually putting points on the board. As is one of the biggest keys for every team in the NFL, the Steelers need to find ways to get touchdowns and not settle for field goals. Kenny Pickett will attempt to improve on a very typical up and down rookie type campaign. Pickett certainly passes the eye test when you watch him read defenses and throw the ball, so Steeler fans should be excited in possibly having an easy transition away from Ben Roethlisberger. Perhaps the most beneficial aspect for Pickett is he will be playing with what should be the best offensive line the team has had in the past three seasons. Their big offensive free agent snag was getting Isaac Seumalo over from the Eagles, who will anchor the interior and left side of the line. They also added some nice depth pieces which will help when injuries inevitably creep up throughout the year. With time in the pocket, Pickett should continue his development and keep the Steelers offense moving without the stoppages we saw in his rookie year. The Steelers brought over Allen Robinson II in an effort to re-start his career in a situation where he doesn’t need to be the star. Second year man George Pickens carries that torch as his pension for making acrobat catches has earned him a pretty nice highlight reel in a short amount of time. Diontae Johnson, despite having some trouble with drops, and not finding the end zone, is a very capable receiver in his own right. Lastly, on the receiving front we should remember Pat Freiermuth is a capable tight end. We’re also watching rookie Darnell Washington, as he could blossom into a real threat with his 6’7 heighth and strength. And of course, it wouldn’t be a Steeler team without an emphasis on running the football. Najee Harris is seeing his third straight 1,000 yard rushing season to start the year, and after slowing down in the passing game, he should get more involvement there as well. The Steelers offense should be improved at least a slight bit in 2023, just how much will determine how far this team can go.
You have to hand it to the front office of the Steelers organization as they aren’t afraid to cut bait with players when things don’t work out. They desperately wanted Devin Bush to be an impact player, and thought Myles Jack could help at linebacker, yet neither were able to fulfill those dreams. As a result, they’re both gone, and veterans Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, Kwon Alexander and Markus Golden are in. None of these four alone are the type of players you lean on to carry your defense, however all can be valuable contributing pieces if there is enough talent surrounding them. Pittsburgh has the talent on the defensive line and in the secondary, headed of course by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Steelers upgraded a thin secondary by drafting Joey Porter, Jr. and bringing over veteran Patrick Peterson. The latter played surprisingly well a season ago for the Vikings. All of this rolls up into what should be an improved group that will be directed by first year coordinator Teryl Austin. He knows the Steelers ideologies and we’re expecting an aggressive defense that plays a sound and physical Steeler brand of football.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 22nd Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 8.5 Wins (over -135, under +115)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
You could probably tell from what you read above the BetCrushers are pretty high on the Pittsburgh Steelers for a bevy of reasons. Throw in a near perfect preseason from Kenny Pickett and the offense, and it’s all aboard the Steelers hype train. This defense should be much improved from the past two seasons, and if the offense is on the verge of being potent, then watch out to the rest of the AFC. The Steelers should end up neck and neck with the other teams in the division, but we’re expecting them in the playoffs. With a win total of just 8.5, we’re also playing some win total futures bets on them.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread, Futures
The Steelers are traditionally one of the most publicly backed teams due to their insane following of fans. Don’t let that scare you from looking to bet them in the right situations this season though as this team seems to be an afterthought in the AFC. As we just said, we’re expecting double digit wins from Pittsburgh, so betting their season win total, or taking a shot at them to win the division are both in play.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Diontae Johnson (WR)
Najee Harris is in line for another 1,000 yard season behind a bolstered offensive line, and George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth are both guys who will be rostered heavily. There’s some potential sleepers here in tight end Darnell Washington, although he’s a probably practice squad candidate, and veteran Allen Robinson II. The latter is all but forgotten about after a bust season a year ago. Speaking of forgotten about players, Diontae Johnson has had some issues with drops, and a lack of finding the end zone. That’s dropped him way down the list of receivers on most draft boards. He’s a quality player who will catch a lot of passes, and by default should find a little more success scoring touchdowns.
