ODDS TO WIN THE DIVISION (Draftkings sportsbook)
Buffalo Bills +120
New York Jets +270
Miami Dolphins +300
New England Patriots +800
Entering the 2022 season the Buffalo Bills were not only heavy favorites to win the AFC East, they were also favorites to win the Super Bowl. This year, a frenzied offseason has narrowed the gap substantially, with many experts believing one of the other teams will capture the AFC East and stop the Bills three year run. The Jets made the biggest splash by acquiring future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers in what they hope is the missing piece to a deep playoff run. The Dolphins not only added some star power on defense, they swapped in a new defensive coordinator, who they believe can take the talented pieces and get them to achieve together. And of course, there are the New England Patriots, who made some additions of their own, and are certainly not going to roll over and die as long as Bill Belichick is heading up the team. Whoever comes away the winner of the East will certainly be battle-tested, but will they have anything left come playoff time?
Buffalo Bills
2022 Record – 13-3
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-7-2
KEY ADDITIONS:
(DE) Leonard Floyd, (OG) Connor McGovern, (WR) Deonte Harty, (RB) Damien Harris, (S) Taylor Rapp, (WR) Trent Sherfield, (DT) Poona Ford, (TE) Dalton Kincaid
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(LB) Tremaine Edmunds, (RB) Devin Singletary, (OG) Roger Saffold, (WR) Isaiah McKenzie
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
Every team faces adversity throughout the course of an NFL season, but it’s not an exaggeration to state the Buffalo Bills faced as much as we’ve ever seen in the 2022 year. The team battled through injuries, blizzards, and of course the Damar Hamlin situation, all of which seemed to leave the team exhausted and flat heading down the stretch. Despite finishing in the top five in both offense and defense, after narrowly beating the Skylar Thompson led Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs, they were embarrassed by the Bengals in the divisional round at home. Adding insult, the team was visibly shaken after the playoff loss, leading to some visible internal bickering. Having gotten through the regular season with three losses by just a total of 8 points, was the 2022 season a success or a failure in Buffalo?
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #25
Although the Buffalo Bills enter the season as the favorites to capture the AFC East, things will look a little different as they don’t have the bullseye on their backs from a season ago. In fact, many talking heads are making cases for the Bills missing the playoffs altogether, which is possible despite what the odds may say. The path to making or missing the playoffs in Buffalo really rests with their offensive line. The team was salary cap limited in the offseason, but did attempt to bolster the unit by bringing over left guard Conner McGovern from the Cowboys, and drafting O’Cyrus Torrence in the second round. Will that be enough to help what plagued them down the stretch and at times during the season, particularly against a slew of good defenses they’ll be playing? Dion Dawkins needs to play more consistently at the left tackle position, and right tackle Spencer Brown needs to make a huge leap if they’re going to protect franchise quarterback Josh Allen. Speaking of the QB, he had another stellar season despite one dubious stat of leading the league in turnovers. Allen is always going to take chances, and his receivers weren’t open all that much, so some of that is to be expected. If they want to capture a Lombardi Trophy however, he needs to at least do better taking care of the ball late in games. As far as those receivers who weren’t open a ton, Stefon Diggs is of course the exception there, as he paced the team in targets, receptions and yards again, by a lot. Gabriel Davis was a bit of a disappointment coming off of his four touchdown playoff performance against Kansas City, however he was playing with a bad ankle/knee for most of the season. The Bills added Trent Sherfield to give them some experienced depth, and traded up a few spots in the draft to land tight end Dalton Kincaid. The rookie has gained early praise and drawn comparisons to Travis Kelce. That’s lofty expectations for the youngster, but he should see some work in the slot, giving Allen another weapon. The running game looks a little stronger this year despite fan favorite Devin Singletary moving on in free agency. James Cook will be the lead dog in a backfield that will see veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray also get some touches, particularly in the red zone. The pieces to the puzzle are there, but there are two huge questions for the offense. Can that offensive line protect Allen, and will offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey improve in his second season as a playcaller?
Some changes are in store for the Bills defense as head coach Sean McDermott is taking over the play-calling duties here with the departure of former defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. We’ll get a good glimpse into how much of Frazier’s defense was actually his, versus how much was him running a McDermott scheme. The Bills will need to operate without middle linebacker and captain Tremaine Edmunds who cashed in big via free agency and leaves a hole in the middle of the defense. As of the preseason, it’s still uncertain who will man that spot, although it could be a rotation, with Tyrel Dodson seemingly the leader in the clubhouse so far. The good news for the defense is their secondary looks healthy and looks deep. Tre White is back to 100% after working through his ACL surgery a season ago, giving the team a legitimate lockdown corner. Micah Hyde will return after missing 15 games last year anchoring the defensive secondary, and Jordan Poyer stuck around in free agency, which was an unexpected boost. The 2nd corner spot will be a battle between incumbent Dane Jackson, last year’s first round pick Kair Elam and late pick Christian Benford. Taron Johnson will fill his full-time nickel role, and Taylor Rapp was brought over to give the team some versatility and depth. The interior of the line looks solid again and Leonard Floyd was brought in to give the pass rush a boost. They’ll need that help until Von Miller can return from his knee injury. The Bills EPA and DVOA numbers were elite with Miller rushing the passer. Without him their pass rush fell off mightily. Miller appears on track to return fairly early, although it wouldn’t be shocking to see the team ease him in and play it cautiously.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 2nd Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 10.5 Wins (over -140, under +120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
The Bills may be a better team overall this year with the addition of Dalton Kincaid, and getting some key pieces back from injury, mainly Micah Hyde and Von Miller. Unfortunately for them, they have one of the toughest schedules in the league, with nearly every week offering up a pretty substantial challenge. Additionally, they weren’t able to notably upgrade a poor offensive line, or replace Tremaine Edmunds in the middle of the defense. If the shaky offensive line can keep Josh Allen healthy, they’ll be in the mix again in the AFC East, but it’s anything but a lock as it seemed a season ago.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Prop Bets
Offensive coordinator is determined to force the issue with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs early in the season. Look to play Stefon Diggs reception props until the books catch up, as he should see double digit targets consistently. If preseason is any indication, the uncertainty with the offensive line has forced a lot of short passes. This could be a cashable wager for Josh Allen’s completions per game.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Gabriel Davis (WR), Dalton Kincaid (TE)
If you’re going to load up on offensive fantasy players from one team, the Bills are certainly a group you’d want to do that with. Josh Allen is projected to be fantasy QB1, Stefon Diggs is a top target, and James Cook could be a sneaky good running back option. After what many felt was a disappointing season a year ago from WR2 Gabe Davis, he is poised for a pretty hefty target share in his own right. He and rookie Dalton Kincaid are guys you can stash on your roster who could potentially come up big for you when you need them.
Miami Dolphins
2022 Record – 9-8
2022 Record Against the Spread – 9-8
KEY ADDITIONS:
(CB) Jalen Ramsey, (WR) Braxton Berrios, (WR) Chosen Anderson, (LB) David Long, Jr.
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(TE) Mike Gesicki, (TE) Hunter Long, (LB) Elandon Roberts
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
The Dolphins ended a five season playoff drought in 2022 by posting a 9-8 record and snagging the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Miami got off to a fast start, going 8-3 to begin the season, before suffering a five game losing streak. Much of that could be pinned on the loss of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who was plagued with concussions, ultimately ending his season. Without Tagovailoa, the offense was less explosive, despite the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Without Tua, the team was forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson in a playoff matchup with the rival Bills, and although a furious comeback made things interesting, they fell in a 34-31 shootout.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #21
Head coach Mike McDaniel hasn’t been shy in his praise of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa since he arrived in South Beach. The best news for all football fans is Tua enters the season healthy and cleared for contact. Let’s collectively hope he can avoid serious injury, not only for his personal well being, but to see how good this team can be with him for a full seventeen game season. Much like the Bills, the Dolphins offensive success will be determined by the play of their offensive line, a group that has had issues. We provided them with a generous group ranking, based mainly upon the health of left tackle Terron Armstead and his ability to return to his Pro Bowl form from his days in New Orleans. If he can’t secure the left edge, this could end up being one of the worst O-lines in the entire league. Critical for any team, particularly one that is trying to keep their quarterback on the field. The skill positions are certainly not a problem, and are as good as you’ll find across the conference. You probably know about the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but they have other speedsters at the wide receiver position as well, including a new return man and gadget player in Braxton Berrios. And it’s not just speed outside, as all three of their running backs can move as well. Miami drafted De’Von Achene who currently sits third on their depth chart. Don’t be surprised if he leapfrogs either Jeff Wilson, Jr. or Raheem Mostert when it’s all said and done. Tight end is a spot that the Dolphins would like to get some more production from, as Mike Gesicki has moved on, leaving Durham Smythe as the new starter. Understanding this offense is really very simple. Protect the quarterback and get the ball in the hands of the playmakers.
If you notice our trending arrows above, we were expecting the Dolphin defense to really take the next step this season. Of course, a part of that was due to Jalen Ramsey joining the team to play opposite Xavien Howard at the corner spot. Ramsey’s unfortunate camp injury will force him to miss a chunk of the season, however this defense should still be pretty good. The team brought in Eli Apple to hold down the fort, and Kader Kohou is a player who has a lot of upside. The safeties are very good as the addition of DeShon Elliott to pair with Jevan Holland gives them a great tandem. The front seven is stout at all positions, with Jaelan Phillips set up to have a monstrous breakout type season. The only real concern is the depth on the defensive line. The starters are formidable, but there isn’t a ton of proven experience behind them. All of this brings us back to the main reason we had the defensive arrow trending upwards in Miami. The addition of new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The past couple of seasons there has been no lack of talent on that side of the ball, they simply couldn’t seem to put it all together. Fangio is a defensive guru who should be able to maximize the skills of players like Bradley Chubb and Emmanuel Ogbah. Although it would be an enormous leap, we won’t be shocked if the Dolphins defense ascends into a top-ten unit in the league.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 13th Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 Wins (over +100, under -120)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 11-6
On paper this Dolphins team has playmakers and speed all over the place, much as it did a year ago. The loss of prized addition of Jalen Ramsey certainly hurts, but having Vic Fangio should help out. There are three main concerns with the Dolphins we can see that would keep this team from winning 12 games and taking the division. The obvious would be the durability of Tua Tagovailoa, and the part that makes that even more worrisome is the struggles of the offensive line. Miami desperately needs Terron Armstead playing and performing effectively. Lastly, it’s fair to wonder out loud if the league caught up just a bit to the offensive scheme of the Dolphins and Tua’s strengths and weaknesses. Perhaps the most telling graphic you’ll find shows that Tua was one of the best QB’s in the league and capitalizing on defensive mistakes. However he was worst in the league at efficiency when defenses were sound and mistake free. In simple terms, if defenses don’t mess up, can Tua thrive? This roster is too talented to not be right in the mix, and they have a little softer schedule than their East rivals. Look for a playoff appearance, if Tua and the offensive line can play at the level we’ve seen when they’re clicking.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Futures
Right now you can still get even or plus money for the Dolphins to go over 9.5 wins. We have them slotted with 11 wins on the season, so there is some cushion there if you like futures. At +300 to win the division, you also may want to consider taking a shot there, as we’ve got them neck and neck with the Bills to capture the East.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Jaylen Waddle (WR)
Jaylen Waddle spent the offseason training harder than he ever has, and is now entering the prime of his career. He’s legitimately as valuable in fantasy football as Tyreek Hill, and maybe even more valuable with PPR. In most rankings, Hill is ranked several receivers ahead of Waddle. While Hill’s ranking is certainly justified, Waddle should be right behind him with the gap we’re generally seeing. He should be poised for another formidable season.
New England Patriots
2022 Record – 8-9
2022 Record Against the Spread – 7-9-1
KEY ADDITIONS:
(WR) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (TE) Mike Gesicki, (OT) Riley Reiff, (CB) Christian Gonzalez
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Jakobi Meyers, (TE) Johnnu Smith, (S) Devin McCourty, (RB) Damien Harris
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is learning that not having an elite quarterback can obviously hurt your chances of competing for Super Bowls. Second year quarterback Mac Jones struggled with injuries and poor play, which hampered the Patriots offense, which also was dealing with new offensive coordinators. In typical Belichick fashion, the team was once again strong on the defensive side of the ball, finishing as a top ten unit, despite only having one Pro Bowler listed on the roster. The Pats were mediocre throughout the year, looking good at times, while seeming undermanned at other instances. That added up to an 8-9 record, which was not good enough to advance them into the playoffs.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – #10
Is it just us or does it feel like an eternity has passed since the New England Patriots were playing in their final Super Bowl with Tom Brady? Times have changed a bit for Bill Belichick as he finds his team slotted in last place according to oddsmakers heading into this season. Make no mistake about it, the Patriots struggles are clearly on the offensive side of the ball. For starters, there is still a monumental question mark around the starting quarterback position. After a surprisingly strong rookie season, Mac Jones battled injuries, and mistakes in what was a very disappointing sophomore campaign. In his third season, it remains to be seen whether or not Jones can be a serious franchise leader, but we do know he’s currently a distant last in the AFC East. One thing that will help is having Joe Judge and Bill O’ Brien back on the offensive coaching staff. Say what you want about either guy and their coaching history, at the end of the day they’re going to upgrade the offensive scheme. The strength of the offensive line is their ability to run the football. Their offensive line is dominant in run blocking, even though they can struggle at times in pass protection. The player who really needs to step up is left tackle Trent Brown. Riley Reiff should give them stability at the right tackle position, and the interior of the line is very good. If Brown can cut down on the mistakes and improve technique, this can definitely be a top ten offensive line. As mentioned, running the ball won’t be an issue as Rhamondre Stevenson will be entering his prime, and is a physical runner who can deliver punishment to opposing defenses. The Pats added veteran Ezekiel Elliott, who is more than likely depth and help in short yardage at this point in his career. Since we mentioned the challenges of the offense, and stated they can run the ball, that must mean there are some question marks when it comes to throwing it. You could argue the Patriots have the worst receiving group in the entire league, as they’re relying on JuJu Smith-Schuster, Davante Parker and Kendrick Bourne to make plays. They’ve also got two underperforming tight ends in Hunter Henry and recently acquired Mike Gesicki, who has been banged up in training camp. In what has become a passing league, one has to wonder if the Patriots “throwback” style of running the football and playing defense can remain relevant in a stacked division and conference?
When you look through the defense in New England, it’s not the most intimidating on a paper depth chart. In fact, outside of Pro Bowl linebacker Matthew Judon, there aren’t a ton of huge names that are known to the average fan. Don’t let that fool you thought, as this defense is very good, and could even be elite in the 2023 season. The defensive line is physical, and are great at what they’re asked to do, which is generally to eat up blockers and push the pocket to allow the linebackers space to move. We mentioned Jaelen Phillips being a breakout player for the Dolphins, and the Patriots have their own. Linebacker Josh Uche is on the verge of being a star in the league, and could ultimately team with Judon to be an unstoppable duo on the edges. The secondary, as is usually the case with a Belichick led defense is once again fundamentally sound. They have experience at the cornerback and safety positions, and invested their first draft pick in Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez. The former Duck will be a day one starter, and could be this year’s version of Sauce Gardner. Defense travels, and can keep you in football games, something the Patriots are going to lean on heavily.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 1st Hardest – BetCrushers Model
Team Win Total Odds – 7.5 Wins (over +105, under -125)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 7-10
The 2023 version of the New England Patriots are basically what the early 2000 Ravens teams were set up to be. A strong defense, that just needs a little bit of help from their offense. The good news is there offense is probably a pinch better than some of those Kyle Boller Ravens offenses, the bad news is their defense isn’t quite what the Ray Lewis led defenses were. The other issue here is the game and the rules have changed enough to where that style of play is tougher to win with. The defense should keep the Patriots in a lot of games, but Mac Jones and the lack of receiving weapons aren’t going to be able to keep pace with the other offenses in the AFC. Combine that with potentially the hardest schedule in the league, and it looks like this could be the toughest season for Bill Belichick yet.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Over/Under – Under Totals
This one really isn’t rocket science when you look at how the Patriots are likely to gameplan throughout the season. They’re going to run the football, and try to move the chains with the short to intermediate passing game. If their defense can hold up, they’ll probably play in more lower scoring games than a lot of teams across the league. The big question is, can that defense hold up? This is another team you may want to wait a bit to evaluate before betting heavily.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Patriots (DST)
At least to start the season, there’s really only one legitimate option to utilize with the Patriots offense, which is running back Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots defense is very viable, at the very least in weeks when they’re not playing great offenses. Sacks and interceptions could be pretty plentiful.
New York Jets
2022 Record – 7-10
2022 Record Against the Spread – 8-9
KEY ADDITIONS:
(QB) Aaron Rodgers, (WR) Allen Lazard, (S) Chuck Clark, (WR) Mecole Hardman, (DE) Will McDonald IV, (WR) Randall Cobb
KEY SUBTRACTIONS:
(WR) Elijah Moore, (WR) Braxton Berrios, (QB) Mike White, (OG) Nate Herbig
REVISITING THE 2022 SEASON
In Robert Saleh’s sophomore season as head coach of the New York Jets, he really seems to be building something that could bring this team back to life. The front office has made what seem to be quality moves in the draft, and this roster that looked almost embarrassing 12-24 months ago, suddenly looks like it could end up being pretty good. There’s still a lot to prove for this team and it won’t be easy, however if you’re a fan of the J-E-T-S, there is reason for hope.
TRENDING INTO THE 2023 SEASON
BetCrushers Offensive Line Ranking – 24th
Yes, there is absolutely reason for optimism for the New York Jets, once we get past some of what seems to be the same old same old. Namely some bad luck, as the team lost former first round pick Mekhi Becton to a knee injury in training, and follower it up with what appeared to be a serious injury to quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets were able to replace Becton with veteran tackle Duane Brown, and even more fortunately, will only be without the services of Wilson for what looks to be the first couple of weeks of the season. New York can’t wait to have Wilson on the field, as they need to see the second year QB progress into a true leader and player at the position. The team is definitely trying to build around him as they added talent via free agency on the offensive line, and drafted college skill position stars Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall at receiver and running back respectively. The Jets actually have one of the deeper wide receiver rooms in the league and also beefed up at tight end bringing over C.J. Uzomah to pair with Tyler Conklin. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is excited about this young and talented group, however he’s the first to admit they need to prove it on the field. If Wilson can come back and be the player they drafted him to be, this could be a really good nucleus of talent for several years in New York.
The defense also is starting to develop some swagger as the team used it’s top pick to select Sauce Gardner, the electric cornerback out of the University of Cincinnati. Gardner will start right away along some veterans in the secondary, and it’s not hyperbole to say that he could be the most talented player on this defense. The Jets are hopeful that C.J. Mosley can bounce back from what was not a great 2021 season, and they need him to as linebacker appears to be the weak link on the defense. The interior of the defensive line is strong with Solomon Thomas, Quinnen Williams and Sheldon Rankins, however there has to be some concern over a pass rush when you look at the roster. The Jets were dead last a season ago in defensive EPA, and a big reason of that is they couldn’t consistently get pressure on the opposing quarterback. Despite what should be an improved defense overall, a lack of a pass rush can be an absolute death sentence in today’s NFL. Looking at the options that are currently in place, it’s difficult to find where that pass rush is going to come from.
2023 Strength of Schedule – 3rd Hardest – BetCrushers
Team Win Total Odds – 9.5 (over -130, under +110)
BetCrushers Projected Record – 10-7
The Jets believed they were a quarterback away from contending not only in the AFC East, but in the league as a whole. We’ll find out if Aaron Rodgers was that missing piece, and how much he has left in the tank. What we do know is the defense should be really good, and the additions and return of Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall, give this fan base an awful lot to be hyped about. Much like the Bills and Dolphins, it could be the offensive line that really ends up determining the success of the Jets in 2023. If this unit can come together, they could capture this division and possibly more. We’re going to schedule them in a win below the Bills and Dolphins to start the year.
Possible to Wagers To Play – Against the Spread
The best strategy involving wagers and the New York Jets may be to wait a bit to see how good this team really looks. There’s a chance they could be “overvalued” by the sportsbooks, so they could be a team you can fade successfully. We’re going to wait until we see what we have here before dipping our toes into the water with them to begin the season.
Fantasy Players To Watch – Garrett Wilson (WR)
The running back position is a little cloudy with Hall and Cook on the roster, but one thing is for certain, and that’s Garrett Wilson being wide receiver one for the Jets. He’s certainly not an unknown entity after his impressive rookie season, but he still may be getting drafted too late and not appreciated enough. Rodgers loves going to his best target, so Wilson could absolutely blow the numbers he put up last year out of the water. If you can land him on your team, you’re likely going to end up very happy.
