The first weekend of baseball yielded 10 betting opportunities; 5 on Saturday, 5 on Sunday. Despite a massive breach of my MLB wagering principles with the Yankees -185 run line, good hits on 4 other RLs squeezed out a +1.03 unit profit over those 10 games. Most importantly, there was a lot of information gained. The early season is key in helping to refine pre-season projections and give feedback on the handicapping model.
Unfortunately, two of the young pitchers my eyes were on brought us losses on Sunday. Trevor Williams shut the Reds down completely, while Sandy Alcantara brought the gas and pitched 8 shutout innings. Christian Yelich is still raking after his MVP campaign but Paul Goldschmidt looks to bring the Cardinals back to the head of the NL Central. Oakland’s bullpen is one to keep an eye on, especially to keep the A’s in the AL West hunt. And what’s up with the Yankees and Red Sox? It’s still early in the season but there’s been no shortage of interesting developments in the MLB.
Let’s take a look at Monday’s action from an early morning perspective…
NY Mets @ Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins are on a 2-game win streak, and are hosting the Mets who took 2 of 3 from the Nationals. Something’s gotta give. We still hold to our projections and give the Mets an edge in every key area I handicap. Matz can be extremely effective tonight if his slider is on. Pair that with an offense that performed well against good pitching this weekend and you’ve got a winning combination.
Is this a good time to fade an “over achieving” Marlins club? Despite how poor their roster is, they’re going to win at least 60 games, so there’s no sure thing on a daily basis in the MLB. Today’s starter, Caleb Smith, is one who could pitch on one extreme or another: laser-focused or very wild. Even if he is focused and pitches well, the Mets have the superior team.
WAGER: Mets RL +135
Detroit Tigers @ NY Yankees
Here we go again…a division bottom-feeder in rebuild mode visiting a club that won 100 games last year and is positioned to lead the AL East. Detroit throws Tyson Ross on the hill to put the brakes on this unstoppable freight train. Oh wait, did the Yankees just drop 2 in a row to the Orioles??? Ross looks to rebound from injuries in recent years, but I expect him to struggle with control and get knocked around in Yankee Stadium (bold prediction, right?).
New York’s young starter Domingo German has the potential to be a high-K guy but can give up the long ball. This is downplayed some because of the lineup he is facing, although Cabrera and Castellanos are not easy outs. The -210 money line is untouchable for me, but -110 run line is more palatable. This could be low, as compared to the weekend prices vs. Baltimore, because of the uncertainty with German and/or their recent struggles.
WAGER: Yankees RL -110
Boston Red Sox @ Oakland A’s
I’ve been riding the Oakland train early this season with decent success. They’re facing a considerably tougher foe in the Red Sox, who still happen to be the defending World Series Champs. David Price is older and more pedestrian but should still be effective in a big park like Oakland’s. His fly ball rate shouldn’t hurt him as much as it can at a place like Fenway or Yankee Stadium.
That being said, I like the way Oakland is grinding early in the season. It is their M.O. after all. The trip to Japan was a bust but they showed toughness in tight situations against their AL West rival this weekend. A lapse by their excellent bullpen Friday night cost them a late lead and the game, but Soria rebounded nicely yesterday. As a #5, Brooks has decent control and pitches to contact. Like Price, this should be OK in the big park with a decent defense behind him.
Oakland’s bullpen will need another strong outing if they hope to squeeze out a win here. Boston’s already-weak pen was worked hard their last 2 games, which could favor the home team. An overall edge goes to the Champs but until the Sox get the ship righted, the home dog is a play.
WAGER: A’s +124
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Potential NL Central top dog vs. a team undergoing a refresh. The Pirates come home after a 1-1 split with the Reds in rainy and cold Cincinnati. Not that the weather will be much better today for their home opener, but you can bank on the Pittsburgh faithful filling PNC Park. Both starters have the ability to limit damage and the bullpens have similar capabilities. The question comes down to whether the Pirates can take advantage of Adam Wainwright who should provide plenty of opportunities to make contact. Chris Archer has the ability to take control of the game, but will he get the run support to get the win?
At the time of publication, no wager had been made. Looking to see where this line goes up to the afternoon first pitch.
