Atlanta gave us a clean race on Sunday with a ton of green flag laps. Happy Harvick walked away with the checkered flag for the second time this season and the second time at Atlanta in three years. The hot rods took over the race and held on, as you would expect with only one unplanned caution. We’re on a quick turnaround for the third mid-week race of 2020 on the short track at Martinsville. Let’s get ready to fire it up Wednesday night!!!
By the way, NASCAR came through with another schedule release through August 2nd. The extended slate picks up with a pair of weekend races in late June at Pocono Raceway. You heard me right, 325 miles on Saturday and 350 miles on Sunday. July rolls into Indy and Kentucky before All-Star Weekend in Charlotte. Then it’s Texas, Kansas, and New Hampshire to ring in August. Big props go to NASCAR and their race organizers for getting this season back on track with real-life racing action!
Takeaways from Atlanta
Like I said in our SBR segment last week, Atlanta rewards speed. And that’s what we saw at the front of the pack for nearly the entire race. My boy Clint Bowyer had his time in clean air, but repeated right rear tire issues ultimately landed him in 20th place. When the dust settled, Kyle Busch, MTJ, Ryan Blaney, and Denny Hamlin were in line behind Kevin Harvick. Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and Joey Logano rounded out the Top 10 pack. Again, speed was rewarded in a caution-light race on the quad-oval.
How Did We Fare?
We designed our Atlanta betting card with restraint. Three matchups checked the boxes and we stuck with those initial reactions. Let’s start with Sunday’s big sweat: Kurt Busch vs. Jimmie Johnson. Kurt failed three pre-race inspections, started in the back, and got a pass-through penalty. This major handicap negated Kurt’s starting position advantage. JJ’s pit crew was strong and his car was strong, but in the end Busch edged him out with only three laps to go. He had a good long-run car and leveraged all those green flag laps to pass Jimmie when it counted.
The saving grace to the Kurt Busch sweat was William Byron’s kiss with the wall. This early misstep meant that Erik Jones essentially just needed to stay clean to beat out Byron, who went eight laps down with damage. Jones had a tire issue of his own late in the race but made it to pit road safely and covered. Our hallmark play – Brad Keselowski vs. Alex Bowman – had the stakes raised by Brad’s speeding penalty. This matchup price steadily inflated, with Keselowski opening at -115 to -130 and landing at -175 or -200 on race day. Despite finishing 12th, Alex was a step behind Brad’s pace all day. Keselowski’s chance to battle for the win slipped with the early penalty, but the #2 sealed the deal in the final stages. Three matchups, three wins with varying degrees of sweat. On that high note, it’s time to head to Martinsville.
Big Guns Firing in Virginia
Martinsville Speedway has the distinction of being the shortest track on the Cup Series circuit at just a hair over 1/2-mile. It’s like Bristol, if you take away the steep banking and full concrete surface. The lower groove in the turns is where you want to be – after all, the shortest route around the track is on the inside. Combine the dual surfaces with the short-distance paper clip shape and you have a recipe for unique racing: dive hard into the turns, hammer the throttle on the way out, rinse and repeat.
“This will be a historic night for NASCAR and Martinsville Speedway as we turn on the lights to host a NASCAR Cup Series for the first time in our 73-year history,”
Martinsville president Clay Campbell
NASCAR’s big guns have been very good here in recent years and especially so in 2018 & 2019. The usual suspects Kyle, Kevin, Martin, Brad, Joey, and Denny have 21 Top-10 and 14 Top-5 finishes in the last four races here. All have Cup-level wins here, too, although you have to go all the way back to 2011 to find Harvick’s last victory. This collective accounts for three of the last four wins, with my boy Clint Bowyer taking the spring 2018 race. The red-hot Brad Keselowski is your defending STP 500 winner (now sponsored by Blu-Emu) while Martin Truex, Jr.’s October 2019 win is the most recent. This win was huge for Truex as the final round of the Cup Series Playoffs kicked off, putting him in striking position for another Championship.
The Cream of the Crop
Kyle is Right at Home
2015 was one hell of a year for Kyle Busch. The #18 team changed crew chiefs before the season, bringing in Busch’s Xfinity chief Adam Stevens in lieu of Dave Rodgers. Then Kyle was injured in the Daytona 500, causing him to miss not only the spring Martinsville race, but also about three months of the season. He caught (figurative) fire that summer, winning four of five races starting at Sonoma. The rest is history as Kyle went on to win the 2015 NASCAR Cup Championship.
Busch’s 2015 title run included finishing 5th in the Martinsville playoff race. That was a big evening for him; one which snapped a longstanding funk on the half-mile. It also kicked off a four-year Martinsville rampage with eight straight Top 5 finishes broken only by contact in the last fall race here. During that streak, Kyle won twice and had two runner-ups. Plus, his six Top 5 finishes this season give us all the reason in the world to think he’ll be a major threat on Wednesday. Busch’s eyes are firmly locked on the checkered flag at Martinsville.
Where Does Brad Fit In?
Brad Keselowski is currently in a nice eight-race groove on this half-mile. He finished 10th in the 2018 spring race, otherwise his seven other finishes were Top 5s – including a pair of wins of his own. The scariest part of his stranglehold on the short track in Martinsville is what he’s doing in 2020. His 9th place finish at Atlanta on Sunday was a far cry from two wins in three races. However, it was a solid rally from being a lap down due to a speeding penalty. The penalty was pure driver error but he dug out of that hole just enough to make the Top 10.
An Emerging Short Track Star
My personal trap driver in 2020 is Ryan Blaney. But I’ve whined enough about the three races – and three gut-wrenching letdowns – that I backed him in early this season. Now it’s about how Ryan Blaney is becoming a legit short track racer. Since 2018, Blaney has progressed sharply on Bristol’s steep concrete half-mile as a member of Team Penske. I touched on his rise in our Battle at Bristol handicap and was subsequently rewarded by a “smashing” exit from the race. Sunday’s 4th place rebound at Atlanta was impressive, especially considering that his previous best finish there was 12th.
Unlike Bristol, Ryan has finished each of his eight Cup Series races on the short track in Martinsville. Maybe it’s only a matter of time until a Blaney DNF occurs on the paper clip, but until then his props are due. Look no further his four Martinsville races while driving the Penske Mustang. He delivered three Top 5 performances after a strong 8th in the Wood Brothers Ford. This confirmed, in a way, that Penske made the right move in bringing him in to drive the reinvigorated #12 car. The lone blemish in this four-race stretch was a 20th place finish in the 2018 Playoffs, a race where Clint Bowyer pushed him around early and it went downhill from there. Ironically, Bowyer finished in 21st right behind Blaney.
Blaney knows how to qualify at Martinsville. In this #12 Mustang, Blaney has started no worse than 7th in five of the last six races here. Wednesday’s race is another “no qualifying, no practice” deal, but rest assured this kid knows how to run the short track at Martinsville. He gets in the front group and can stay there, even if it is rare to see him out front.
Is The Price Right?
The 145 laps that Blaney led in spring 2018 were the only ones he’s ever led at Martinsville. He opened at 5Dimes at +1320, which is a pretty fat price if you think the #12 is a legitimate contender. The overnight move to 12/1 still leaves meat on the bone but the value to win could be slipping away. Another option is playing Top 3 or Top 5 if the price is right. An early Top 3 market posted him at +275, which seems a bit light to me. Of course, that account only lists him at 10/1 to win and other books’ opinions may be more advantageous. My eyes are peeled for Top 5 at +200 or better.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
NASCAR’s big guns were well represented on top of the board at the open. Chase Elliott squeezed his way into this group at +880, alongside Joey Logano. Kyle Busch as the short 4/1 favorite should not surprise anyone. Both he and Brad Keselowski, who sits right below him, currently have the longest-standing runs of success at Martinsville. This is the issue with obvious contenders. Betting markets price them accordingly and value can be scarce, so we look to matchups yet again for workable options.
Kurt Busch +115 vs. Jimmie Johnson
I’m all about finding a winning formula and sticking to the plan. And here we go again with these two. Sunday’s Kurt vs. Jimmie matchup was a massive test in patience. Kurt’s late long-run speed paid dividends in a green-filled Stage 3 to enable the pass with a handful of laps to go. It marked his fourth Top 10 in a row and seven of the last eight races this season. This speed – which was just good enough to cash a big sweat – won’t directly translate to Martinsville. The Virginia half-mile requires a much different race approach than Atlanta’s quad-oval.
Jimmie Johnson’s nine wins at Darlington make it the second-most prolific venue for him over his long career (Dover, with 11 wins, seems to be his spirit track). Martinsville is a lot less exciting in terms of performance. He won the 2016 Goody’s Fast Relief 500, but hasn’t finished in the Top 10 since. The glory days may be well in the past, but Jimmie has a competitive car this year with stability on top of the box. It hasn’t always been roses at Martinsville for Kurt, either. Even though Busch won in 2002 & 2014, that last win came in the middle of a major funk. This funk was enormous: 23 finishes outside the Top 10 with 14 of those not even cracking the Top 20. To add a little more spice, guess who played runner up to Kurt in the 2014 STP 500? Jimmie Johnson.
Ironically, that win for Busch came in the midst of Jimmie’s better days here. JJ beat Kurt outright in 12 of 14 Martinsville races between 2011-17. These last two years, however, are owned by Busch. That’s four straight head-to-head wins in a row on this track, and four of the last six this season. I expect another tight matchup on Wednesday with both finishing in the Top 10. Two things separate this one from a pure toss-up: Kurt’s rock-solid consistency and the price. Give me +115 to back my guy Kurt Busch in a very competitive matchup. Note: the price has moved to KB -105 with an assist from the draw. Kurt starts 9th and JJ starts 21st, assuming no pre-race penalties.
Ryan Blaney Top 5? (TBD)
I made the case for a strong finish from Ryan Blaney earlier, and will go against my 0-3 record this year with the #12 car on Wednesday. Blaney’s season trajectory lately has been Top 5 caliber, despite the Bristol miscue that came with severe collateral damage. This performance level aligns well with his strengths at Martinsville. Three out of four Top 5 finishes here in the Penske Mustang says something. Ryan is fast, races aggressively, and is maturing as the season progresses. Plus, he starts the race on the pole. We’re anxiously awaiting Top 5 prices, so stay tuned to our site and Twitter account!
Booking Up the Calendar
Races are now scheduled into August, which leads right into (hopefully) the NFL season. Things are looking up in the sports world! Be sure to follow us on Twitter and check our NASCAR page for early play postings. Subscribe below for email alerts so you don’t miss our next handicap. BOL!!!
