The whirlwind that is the 2020 NASCAR schedule takes us next to Blue Ridge Mountains for a Battle at Bristol. Charlotte treated us to a spectacular Memorial Day weekend Coca-Cola 600 and a rain-delayed 311-mile sprint on Thursday. Brad Keselowski won his first 600 and Chase Elliott pulled away with the win in the encore after back-to-back near misses. The boys leave Charlotte’s 1.5-mile quad-oval on a collision course with Bristol, Tennessee. Denny Hamlin won the last race here, the 2019 August Night Race, while Kyle Busch is your defending Food City 500 champion. Food City is calling this year’s race the Food City Presents the Supermarket Heroes 500, a nice nod to grocery store workers serving us through this COVID-19 debacle.
Bristol Motor Speedway’s steep-banked half-mile concrete track is iconic. It’s technically 0.533 miles around but “The World’s Fastest Half-Mile” has a much better ring to it. Sunday’s race features 500 laps of intense, quarter panel bangin’ racing. Bristol is typically one of the circuit’s loudest venues. Without crowds again this weekend, the volume will have to come from pure horsepower in Thunder Valley. We leave the Charlotte action behind after chopping up a six-pack of wagers in those two races. Denny Hamlin stuck it to us in both of them, but Kurt Busch continues to deliver when we back him.
The Key to Success at Bristol
The problem is, success is a fleeting concept at Bristol Motor Speedway. A good example is the formerly-retired Matt Kenseth, now behind the wheel of the #42 Camaro. Kenseth has four Bristol wins, including three night races and the 2015 Food City 500. The two most recent wins came somewhat surprisingly at the tail end of his career. A four race stretch spanning the 2013 and 2015 seasons included those two wins and a 3rd place finish. That streak came smack dab in the middle of five races where his best finish by far was 25th. In those stinkers, Kenseth got bounced twice from accidents and once with an engine failure despite leading 252 laps in three of those five. Bristol will giveth, then taketh right back in a hurry.
Another problem is your defending NASCAR Champion, Kyle Busch. Busch won three out of the last five Cup races held at Bristol Motor Speedway, including 4th in the 2019 Night Race from a 31st starting position. It’s hard to argue that Kyle is not the hottest driver at Bristol. Like Kenseth, the eight-time Bristol winner’s recent success is a breath of fresh air after several years of pain. Before these flush years, four of his five races ended in DNFs from Bristol’s tough love. Busch, Kenseth, Harvick, and Keselowski are all multi-win drivers who have persevered through really tough times in Thunder Valley.
Looking for Survivors
Bristol is tough enough to survive as it is, let alone without the benefit of pre-race practice sessions. Given that, we’re looking for survivors who can hop on the concrete and bang for 500 laps. Bristol’s too short for Daytona- or Talladega-style “Big Ones,” but trading paint on the regular is part of the deal. It’s a tough environment on equipment too. Engine, suspension, electrical, and clutch issues happen and falling multiple laps behind the leaders is all too easy at The World’s Fastest Half-Mile. Then you have the dual pit row configuration with no garage. The rules for pit road entry have changed through the years and are not intuitive to inexperienced drivers. Add “failed pit road entry” to the list of ways to fall a lap behind.
Clint Bowyer: Down for Whatever
Usually when I talk about Clint Bowyer, it’s in the context of him being a disaster waiting to happen. He’s one of our more frequent fades in overpriced matchups, or at least it feels that way. To be honest, Clint is a pretty entertaining guy and is tough to root against. I have no problem giving him credit, when its due, for a strong outing or a positive history at a track. But 2020 has been a typical season for him, in that he busts out more often than he contends. His Top 10 efforts at Daytona and Phoenix are season highlights; the four races after NASCAR’s return have been a struggle.
Let’s get positive and recognize that Bowyer is a gladiator in Bristol’s Coliseum. He’s the kind of driver that can keep a scraped up stock car on the lead lap with the best of them. Evidence: only twice has Clint failed to finish in 28 races in Thunder Valley. Despite never having won a Cup Series race at Bristol, he’s finished in the Top 10 in over half of those contests. Bowyer’s current tenure in the Stewart-Haas #14 Mustang has been even better with five Top 10s in six races. After last weekend’s smoked out performance and Thursday’s pit road speeding penalties, you better believe ol’ Clint Bowyer is gonna be ready to roll. My wife is more of a hater; she’s posted odds of 4/1 that Bowyer’s Mustang will (literally) be on fire again Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson: Not Done Yet
Our support for Jimmie Johnson at Charlotte was rewarded to a degree, though Denny Hamlin’s strong run on Thursday squashed our celebration plans. Jimmie ran hard on Sunday (despite the DQ) and had a decent charge from the back on Thursday. JJ’s history on the NASCAR circuit includes 36 Cup Series races at Bristol with a pair of wins. That history, like many other veteran drivers’ resumes, has plenty of ups and downs on the concrete half-mile. The #48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has logged nearly 20,000 laps here, though he hasn’t led the pack much in the last seven years.
“This track has been really difficult for me over the years,” Johnson said. “To be able to find what we did Saturday afternoon (in practice), it’s honestly what I’ve been looking for for 16 years up here.”
Johnson continues power surge by winning Food City 500 – April 25, 2017
Johnson’s 2017 Food City 500 win was as solid as they come. He led only 81 laps but was right there in the mix for all three stages. JJ took over the race when it counted, a second consecutive Cup Series victory that season. Just like any other driver, though, he’s had dud races and down periods at Bristol. Despite a disappointing 2019 Night Race, Jimmie parlayed his 2017 win into four consecutive quality Bristol efforts that included two Top 10s in the spring contests.
None of this is all that surprising considering that he’s been quite solid in Thunder Valley since 2009. He’s finished in the Top 10 an impressive 15 times in the 22 races since then. Johnson’s quote after winning three years ago reflects more on his competitive mentality than it does his actual performance. Although you cannot completely write off his 2019 season campaign, the #48 team has more stability in 2020 at the Crew Chief position after Cliff Daniels took over last summer. His gaff at Darlington and the Coca-Cola 600 disqualification don’t do justice to a solid season. Now Jimmie is back at Bristol and he could be worth a look in the right spot.
Ryan Newman: Won’t Let Up
It’s common knowledge in the NASCAR garages that Ryan Newman is one tough bugger to pass. Then came the 2020 Daytona 500 and pretty much everybody saw that this guy is tough as nails. Sure, he missed the next three races while recovering, and then there was the COVID-19 hiatus, but that’s still a quick recuperation. We were happy to see that he returned to much fanfare from his peers and racing fans alike. Newman looked respectable in the two Darlington races with 15th and 14th place finishes. Those results more or less meet expectations in a normal season, but count as exceeding them, considering Daytona. Repeated battery issues plagued his Coca-Cola 600 but on Thursday, he returned to his 2020 form with a 17th place finish. That seems par for the course, because it’s been a while since Charlotte treated him well.
Now it’s time for Newman to battle in The Coliseum and his Bristol resume isn’t mind-blowing. But it’s duly noted that he will drive his ass off on the half-mile and is not going to give up position without a fight. Since leaving Penske Racing in 2009, Newman failed to finish only once in 22 Bristol races. Otherwise, he’s finished 16th or better in 20 of those contests with twelve Top 10s. Don’t underestimate his value in matchups this weekend.
The Growth of Matt DiBenedetto
Matt DiBenedetto scored air time during last year’s practice session telecasts, with the likes of Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. repeatedly speaking to his potential. 2019 became a breakout year for Matty D, with a career-best 22nd in the season standings. He registered his first three Top 5s and seven of his 11 Top 10s over last year’s 36-race schedule. DiBenedetto’s 152 laps led was by far a career high water mark. For better or worse, its was also his first and only season in the Leavine Family #95 Toyota. The team announced in August that DiBenedetto would be out at the end of the year and made it known one month later that rising Xfinity Series star Christopher Bell would drive the #95 in 2020.
Matt’s 2019 improvements included slashing his average starting position by nearly one-third to 20.5. This year it’s been so far, so good in the Wood Brothers #21 Ford Mustang. Paul Menard’s old ride has provided a boost, but DiBenedetto is also likely ascending that upside that Jeff & Dale foretold. Despite scraping the wall at Charlotte during Coca-Cola 600 qualifying, he pulled out a respectable 17th place finish. Other than Daytona, that’s his worst one this year. He’s collected a range of finishes in the mid-teens and then tricked them out with a 9th in the Darlington encore and a runner up at Las Vegas. Yes, he stayed on the track during the final caution there but far more experienced teams seem to be having problems with this concept, so points to the #21 for the call. DiBenedetto has improved at each track except Daytona this season – a positive sign that reflects both his progression as a driver and the better resources of the #21 team.
Betting the Battle at Bristol
Are you surprised to find Kyle Busch headlining the opening odds to win the Food City 500? After all, he won three of the last five races at Bristol, including the last two spring races. You better believe he has the shortest odds to pull a Tom Emanski (you better not have to google that) in the Food City 500. The tier below him is crowded with quality drivers. Logano, Hamlin, Harvick, and Elliott all opened at less than 10/1 odds. At least one other book we use has Martin Truex, Jr. in that vicinity as well. Given this group’s history at Bristol, Truex is greatly overvalued at less than 10/1.
Bristol is an edgy track to handicap because heavy contact is the norm and it’s so easy to lose laps when you need to fix problems. Fellow NASCAR handicapper @NASCARstyleodds said to me Friday that he plays this track like a superspeedway: prepare to see anything and everything. Nothing is a sure thing here, so accept the fact that shit happens on the half-mile. “Safe drivers” aren’t sexy picks to win the race but my goal is to grind out some loot while watching the races. Let’s find some winners for the Food City 500.
Step 1: Fade MTJ
Bristol is one of the few tracks on the NASCAR circuit where Martin Truex, Jr. has not truly planted his flag. Four DNFs in 28 races is not a huge deal, not here. No wins, no problem. The glaring issue is his inconsistency in cracking even the Top 20. His 54% Top 20 rate and 11% Top 10 rate at Bristol are about as poor as it gets for MTJ. Truex’s 8th in the 2017 spring race is his lone Top 10 finish since 2012. Furthermore, his pair of Top 20 finishes in 2019 were two of only five such results in the last thirteen contests.
5Dimes opened him at 11/1 to win while other books had him in the 8/1 neighborhood. At least one has since moved to 11/1 like 5Dimes. Even at this higher price, his position on the board compared to his peers is too generous in my opinion. But wait, you say. MTJ’s form since the break has been nothing short of solid: four races, four Top 10 finishes. He exceeded expectations at Darlington and just about submarined your card. This is a classic case of current form butting heads with specific (lack of) track performance. Do we dare go up against Truex and maybe sweat another late charge? You bet your ass we do.
Ryan Blaney -115 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
The start to Ryan Blaney’s season was full of highs that quickly turned to lows. Like Chase Elliott, Blaney had two straight shots at victories snatched right out from underneath him. He returns from the break and just gets by in the Darlington races. Then Blaney gets his stuff together and shows up with two 3rd place finishes in the Charlotte contests. Ryan has never cracked the Top 10 at Darlington and Charlotte has been almost as tough, so what did you expect out of the #12 Mustang? There are valid arguments for and against his form in relation to Truex, but that may not matter so much.
Blaney starts Sunday’s race in position 4 with Truex a row back in position 5. The start is a wash and the matchup price is too. Look, Ryan is not without his struggles at Bristol; four of his nine races were outside of the Top 20. Since joining Penske Racing in 2018, however, he’s been significantly more consistent. An accident bounced him from the 2018 spring race after leading 100 laps. Since then, he’s delivered three straight Top 10s and led another 279 laps in two of those races. Blaney also outraced Truex in the last three Bristol battles despite MTJ’s upgrade to the Joe Gibbs #19 Camry in 2019. Never count Martin Truex, Jr. out, but Ryan Blaney should have the upper hand in this matchup.
Kevin Harvick -105 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
First and foremost, don’t let Harvick’s 39th place finish in the 2019 Bristol night race fool you. Clutch problems dealt him only his fourth DNF over 38 career races here. His 13th place finish in last year’s Food City 500 was a little less than spectacular, but it was still four positions better than MTJ. In fact, Happy Harvick’s failure to finish in the previous Bristol race snapped an eight-race head-to-head winning streak over Truex. Is it the #4 car’s slide from the lead to a 10th place finish Thursday influencing his price so much in this race? Or is it the big fat 39th last fall? Whatever the reason, Kevin Harvick as an underdog to MTJ in this spot is a no-brainer play for us.
Step 2: Ride with Ryan Newman
One of my early-week handicapping notes stated that Ryan Newman should have matchup value opportunities. His return to the track was widely applauded but the results have been middle-of-the-road. The #6 Ford Mustang draws a starting position of 17, a spot that the Rocket Man is accustomed to, and he’s been good at making something out of nothing on the half-mile. Newman has improved on his starting position in his last five races overall and in eight of last ten Bristol races. There are a couple solid ways to back him.
Ryan Newman -115 vs. Aric Almirola
Aric Almirola holds a huge advantage over Ryan Newman by starting fifteen positions ahead of him. And perhaps that’s why these two drivers opened in a pick ’em matchup. Newman’s Bristol resume is pretty damn decent, as detailed above. AA, on the other hand, has six DNFs in 21 career races here. Despite starting in the Top 10 in the last three Bristol runs, Almirola finished no better than 29th. His 6th place finish in the 2018 Food City 500 was arguably an anomaly; it was one of only four Top 20 results in his last eleven races in Thunder Valley. The counter argument is Aric’s current form, having outraced Ryan in three of the last four races this season. Bristol is a much different test, so we’re backing Ryan Newman to beat Aric Almirola for the tenth time in the last twelve Bristol races.
Ryan Newman +155 vs. Matt Kenseth
I saw this matchup early Saturday morning and had to take another swig of coffee before refreshing my screen. There are a number of large prices in the matchup offerings, but this one really surprised me. Why is Matt Kenseth such a big favorite? I’ve already commented on the periods of success that Kenseth has had at Bristol. He’s in Kyle Larson’s #42, which was quite good here the last three years. Larson was runner up in both 2018 Bristol races and produced three more Top 10s in that six-race stretch. The problem is that Matt has struggled after his 10th place finish in the Darlington comeback. Now you have a guy fresh out of retirement who is racing in his fifth Cup Series race in just fourteen days. Newman’s consistency tilts the favor sharply toward him in a big plus-money matchup that we cannot pass up.
Step 3: Find Good Top 10 Prices
The Top 10 markets are the first place I go to look for value on a non-top tier driver I’ve handicapped as consistently good in a given situation. This approach can be quite lucrative as long as the book isn’t taking an exorbitant cut. If you’ve been following our NASCAR handicaps the last couple seasons (or the last two weeks for that matter), you likely noticed that Kurt Busch is one of our favorite drivers to play this way. Although Kurt has been very good here recently, I give him a coin flip chance to finish Top 10 and the -137 price to do so just doesn’t cut it. Here are two that we are backing:
Clint Bowyer -106 to Top 10
Assuming Clint gets his pit road speed straightened out, I’m putting him on a 55-65% range to finish Top 10. His matchup prices were disappointingly expensive, excepting one against Matt DiBenedetto. Matty D is not a driver I am looking to fade this weekend. -106 is a mildy-juiced price on a guy who has gotten it done in six of the last eight Bristol spring races. I’d much rather lay into my wife’s 4/1 prop that Bowyer’s car ignites, but she is notoriously slow to pay out. (Note from wife: she now puts the odds of me igniting at an even pick ’em).
Matt DiBenedetto +125 to Top 10
Taking DiBenedetto to finish in the Top 10 is one part speculative and another part value-based. Matt’s move to the #95 Toyota in 2019 paid dividends throughout the season, and especially so at Bristol. The 12th place and runner up finishes were his best yearly aggregate since joining the Cup Series in 2015. That’s to be expected for a driver on the upswing. DiBenedetto starts 9th on Sunday, so he’s already in the neighborhood. Factoring in the anything goes nature of Bristol with last year’s performances here and his overall “gap up” improvement at this year’s tracks, I am comfortable assessing his Top 10 chances at 50-50. Offer +125 on a coin flip proposition and we’ll happily back Matt DiBenedetto at The World’s Fastest Half-Mile.
Summer Optimism
We’re on the verge of flipping calendars to June and the NASCAR racing schedule is shaping up nicely. Is there reason for optimism with an MLB season to start in about a month? Either way, The BetCrushers have you covered. Be sure to follow us on Twitter, visit our NASCAR handicapping page, or subscribe for email alerts!
