Memorial Day can mean many things for Americans, but most important is commemorating our fallen military. A lot of traditions have grown up around the long weekend: time with friends and family, cookouts, camping, and (usually for me) catching a baseball game. For us race fans, Sunday means the Indy 500 followed on the same day by the longest race on the NASCAR schedule. And speaking of tradition, Charlotte Motor Speedway hosts this year’s Coca-Cola 600 as part of its 60th anniversary celebration. Fans may not be in the stands to celebrate, but this is still an important milestone for the American sports spirit.
If you ask me, there’s no better way to celebrate in quarantine than to light some charcoal, watch a great race from my patio, and bet on some winners. CMS is a 1.5-mile quad-oval, or D-shaped, track. Think of it as a tri-oval with the pointy part lopped off. Add turns banked at 24 degrees and you’re looking at competitive, entertaining speed. Even better, Charlotte’s 15-year old asphalt surface is not crazy abrasive like Darlington or Fontana, so we don’t have to have the tire wear conversation. The quad-oval design is similar to Atlanta and Texas Motor Speedways, so I’m also looking forward to Sunday’s 600 giving insight into the Atlanta race two weeks from now.
Sayonara to a Fine Hostess
NASCAR’s return to the sporting world has been a huge success. Despite a somewhat captive audience, Darlington Raceway’s layout delivered competitive racing, an emphasis on tire management, plenty of crunched right sides, and one firmly extended middle finger. We saw the infamous Darlington Stripe on guys like Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch. Most importantly, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin rolled out of South Carolina with wins to boost their playoff statuses. Real live American stock car racing is an across-the-board morale booster for handicappers and fans alike and the product we got to watch did not disappoint. Kudos to the NASCAR brass and The Lady in Black.
Entertaining and Profitable
The Track Too Tough to Tame was friendly to us on the handicapping and wagering front as well. A combined 7-2 record on five matchups and two Top 5 plays helped get the early season Ryan Blaney-fueled monkey off of our backs. We successfully played both sides of of Kyle Busch from one race to the next while somehow surviving another fade of Martin Truex, Jr. Unfortunately, my loyalty to Kurt Busch at Darlington met with mixed results. He was good enough on Sunday to cash a matchup and make me regret laying off laying his Top 10 price. He sang a different tune on Wednesday, however, and fell a tad short of Joey Logano when the rains came.
I was on the fence about Erik Jones on Sunday, making his matchup in Wednesday’s race my most gratifying win of last week. Despite his lackluster early season, Jones came to Darlington and sealed his status as a perennial legitimate contender: That’s five of five Top 10s including a 2019 win and two 5th place finishes. As the Cup Series moves to Charlotte for the Coca-Cola 600, there’s one South Carolina situation to keep in mind. Chase Elliott races hard any normal week, but now he’s got a big, sharp ax to grind with ol’ Kyle Busch after this end to Chase’s strong run in the Toyota 500…
The Truex Years
Martin Truex, Jr. is the reigning king of Charlotte Motor Speedway. Maybe not so much on the Roval course, but when it comes to the 1.5-mile quad-oval Truex is the man to beat. 600 miles of racing is a major gut check, especially with a dinnertime start that finishes under the bright lights of North Carolina. It’s a test of endurance that requires stamina, focus, and experience to survive the night. Recent winners include stalwarts like Martin Truex, Jr., Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and wait, … Austin Dillon?
Truex has been damn near a shoe-in for a Top 5 finish for the past five Coca-Cola 600s. With last year’s impressive win after an early brush with the wall, he’s taken two checkered flags, a runner-up, 3rd, and 5th. Oh yeah, he also won the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte on his way to becoming the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. Other than the Roval races, which have only been around the last two years, Truex has seven Top 5s in eight races. Even more impressive is that six of his last seven finishes were no worse than 3rd. He’ll likely be up front when the checkered flag drops, but situations like this always raise the eternal question: can we find value for such an obvious badass anywhere in the betting markets?
What About Kyle & Kevin
Kyle Busch took his lumps in the 2011, 2013, & 2016 runnings of the Coca-Cola 600. Those races bring his 10-year average down but things look very different if you examine just the last three years. Kyle parlayed a 2017 runner-up finish into a 2018 win, followed by a “drop off” to 3rd place last year. Although he stumbled a bit before this strong run, Busch has been damn good here since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2008. Twelve of those 22 races resulted in Top 5 finishes, with six Top 5s in the Coca-Cola 600 races since 2008.
Perennial winner Kevin Harvick can’t match Busch’s dominant three-year stretch in the 600. Granted, Harvick’s 40th (out of 40) place finish in 2018 is not indicative of what could have been. His blown tire sent him into the wall as he was running 4th. The 8th in 2017 and 10th in 2019? Decent, but not what you’d expect out of Kevin Harvick. He was successful as a rookie way back in 2001, but never set Charlotte on fire until his 2011 Coca-Cola 600 victory. Then he rattled off eleven more Top 10s over the next thirteen races, including two more wins and three runner-ups. If you care about prowess at the similar Atlanta and Texas quad-ovals, those results will impress you as well: Since 2015, Harvick has four wins and ten Top 5 finishes in 15 races at those tracks.
Finding Value at Charlotte
One of our regional accounts took an early stance on the To Win and Top 3, 5, & 10 markets; otherwise, it was a long wait for offshores like 5Dimes to post their odds. Although matchups are typically the majority of our NASCAR bets, these placing markets are valuable in judging relative value of the drivers. The most notable change on the 5Dimes board is Martin Truex, Jr. dropping from the four-way log jam shown below to +500. This swift adjustment took place between Friday evening and Saturday morning.
A Spot for Veterans?
600 miles on one of the biggest stages of the NASCAR season is a major test of will and stamina. It should be no surprise that the top ranks in the annual Memorial Day weekend race have been hoarded by championship-level drivers like Busch, Truex, Harvick, and Hamlin. Let’s take a look at a pair of savvy veterans who could find their way onto our Coca-Cola 600 betting card.
Matt Kenseth
Kenseth’s return from retirement aligned with a pair of races at Darlington, which you know by now is a very tough track to negotiate. His 10th place finish on Sunday was pretty impressive considering all of the cards stacked against him. However, it was far from a surprise, and Kenseth himself said he found the current race package friendlier to drivers than what he ran prior to retirement. But Matt’s Wednesday night spinout led to a sad-trombone finish in 30th place. Was it a well-timed move to generate a caution, or simply the result of a tire rub? Twitter doesn’t know, but definitely debated it loudly.
“Certainly, this package makes the cars easier to drive than what they were when I left,” Kenseth said on Monday in a teleconference. “When you have less power and more drag, everything is happening just a little bit slower and that helps with the adjustment as well.”
Matt Kenseth comments on the ‘easier’ NASCAR rules package, May 20, 2020
The 48 year-old had a good run at Charlotte in the Joe Gibbs #20 Toyota. He racked up three Top 5s and four Top 10s in five Coca-Cola 600s. His lone Top 10 miss came in 2013, a race in which he led 112 laps, then got rear-ended trying to avoid a collision between Jimmie Johnson and MTJ. Kenseth is back in the #42 Camaro this weekend and the combination of his racing experience and fast ride make him one to watch.
Jimmie Johnson
JJ was full of regret after clipping a lapped car to close out Stage One of Sunday’s Darlington race. He followed that up with a strong run on Wednesday, charging from the 37th starting position all the way up to 8th when the rain began to fall. With a miscue that big, I questioned his focus going into the Toyota 500. Now I’m reasonably assured that it’s a one-off gaffe. He’s clearly in the sunset of his golden years, but by no means out of contention. Jimmie won the 600 in 2014, flopped in 2015, then proceeded to rattle off three Top 10s in the last four years. Additionally, he won the 2016 Bank of America 500 and finished 7th in 2017. Ol’ Seven Time still may have a little gas in the tank this weekend.
The BetCrushers’ Coca-Cola 600 Playbook
Just 30 hours before the race, all of our accounts have limited availability of NASCAR wagers. Two things are likely at play here: 1) the really quick turnaround from Wednesday night’s race and 2) not having the starting lineup set until Sunday at 2:00, just hours before the race. Establishing betting positions before practice and qualifying runs injects additional elements of uncertainty. In my experience, operating without full information can result in beating the market price at times, and losing value at others. My typical M.O. is to take early positions when the price is favorable compared to my numbers. Then I add to those positions or establish additional ones as practices reveal new information and other markets open. Given limited options and even more limited information, here is The BetCrushers’ Coca-Cola 600 playbook as of Saturday morning:
Martin Truex, Jr. -115 vs. Kevin Harvick
Yep, I said it earlier and I’ll say it again: these are The Truex Years at Charlotte Motor Speedway. That’s a thing, of course, but what about the point I made less than two weeks ago about Truex’s slow start to 2020? Vegas: weak. Fontana: meh. Phoenix: oof. We backed this up by fading MTJ in back-to-back races at Darlington. These Truex plays yielded a 2-1 record, but not without serious sweat. His 6th and 10th place finishes at Darlington were surprisingly solid, especially Sunday’s strong rally from early grille damage. This is enough for me to recalibrate my perception of Martin’s season. After all, Truex finished better than 8th place at Darlington only once (his 2016 win) in eight previous runs. Were last week’s performances a positive sign for the #19 Camry?
Why bet right into the teeth of last Sunday’s winner, Kevin Harvick? It’s definitely not out of a lack of respect for The Closer. Harvick had a big run of dominance at Charlotte, has been a threat at Atlanta, and is downright dangerous at Texas. The #4 team is scorching hot right now after three straight Top 3 finishes. The differentiator in my eyes is Truex’s sustained excellence at this week’s venue, especially in the Coca-Cola 600. Even if you throw out Harvick’s last-place finish in 2018, MTJ has outraced him in each of the last six 600s. Throw in the fall Bank of America 500s and he’s been better than Kevin in seven of the last eight at CMS. There’s no hotter driver in NASCAR than Kevin Harvick, but Martin Truex’s pedigree at Charlotte Motor Speedway tips the scales and puts us on MTJ in this matchup.
Kurt Busch +100 to Top 10
Another race, another play on Kurt Busch. He poses an interesting proposition for Sunday’s race in the wake of a nondescript Toytota 500 and a weak 27th place finish in the 2019 Coca-Cola 600. Prior to last year, Kurt finished in the Top 10 for four straight years. This run extends to six of seven if you include the three Bank of America 500s in between the 600s. Busch’s CMS body of work includes one 10th and two 8th finishes, with no result better than 5th. Although I’m not completely writing off 2019’s also-ran result, take into account that he was running up front in Stage Four before spinning out and failing to regain his high position.
Let’s look at price. Kurt’s 15th place finish in Wednesday’s sprint may have reset his position in the field. Combine that with last year’s 27th and now Busch is slotted alongside a handful of drivers below the first ten in the Top 10 market. Just one week ago we were looking for a +100 price at Darlington, but the -118 opener was as good as it got. Then it jumped to -165 for the Toyota 500 after Kurt finished 3rd in the first race back after NASCAR’s hiatus. I handicap Kurt Busch at a 60% chance to finish in the Top 10, making even- or plus-money a solid bet. We dipped in early on this wager at +100 and see +110 available on Saturday morning. He’s skirted the fine line in recent years at Charlotte Motor Speedway, however, I see the move as a beneficial over-adjustment of his price.
Denny Hamlin -105 vs. Joey Logano
My evaluation of Denny Hamlin boils down to one key point: Denny has yet to win at Charlotte but he’s never out of it. Since 2011, Hamlin has seven Top 10 finishes in nine Coca-Cola 600s. Six of those were Top 5s. Granted, the #11 Gibbs Toyota team gives him a top-notch ride. Denny started in the Top 10 in eight of those nine races, with the 2019 run being the lone exception. 2014 & 2019 were two of his worst efforts in the 600, although Hamlin sat in 2nd after Stage One last year. Being consistently good but still a Charlotte maiden returns a price to win at 10/1 or better.
Hamlin’s consistency dampened his price in the Top 3, 5, & 10 markets, but his matchup as an underdog to Joey Logano screamed out at me last night. It can’t be recency bias. Although Logano is fresh off of a 6th place finish in the Toyota 500, Hamlin won the thing. In fact, Denny outraced him in both Darlington races. Both drivers have a pair of victories in 2020 – although the #11 Camry has topped the #20 Mustang in the four races Logano did not win. The bias may be a result of Logano’s runner-up performance in the 2019 Coca-Cola 600 as compared to Hamlin’s disappointing 17th. Otherwise, Denny topped him in the 600 in 2015, 2016, 2017, & 2018 by at least five positions. I have no hesitation with backing Denny Hamlin as a -105 dog to Joey Logano.
Jimmie Johnson -105 vs. Ryan Blaney
The first step in my handicapping process is to review my database and track notes, then scribble down driver considerations. Current form, team dynamics, and past performance at this week’s track/event are all in play. My question about Jimmie Johnson was “Is Jimmie staying focused enough?“. I dug into this earlier, coming to an affirmative conclusion. Further down my early list of notes, my comment for Ryan Blaney was “fade vs. consistent drivers!!!”
Jimmie may not be the dominant force he’s used to being, but he’s far from an also-ran. JJ’s been generally good in the six races on Charlotte’s quad-oval since 2016. Good enough to outrace Ryan Blaney in all six, though Ryan was in the #12 Penske Mustang for the 2018 & 2019 600s. That was an upgrade from the Wood Brothers #21 Mustang, though not a massive jump. Engine troubles in the 2018 race shouldn’t be a knock against him, but the old man has stacked up to the young gun just fine this season. Bob Barker would agree that the price is right to back Jimmie Johnson at -105 against Ryan Blaney.
Things Are Heating Up
The fate of the MLB, NBA, and NHL seasons are still up in the air. But when it comes to NASCAR, the action is just heating up. The 2020 Coca-Cola 600 gets followed up with a shorter Charlotte race on Wednesday. Then we get a big Tennessee treat to close out the month of May in Bristol. Be sure to follow us on Twitter, visit our NASCAR handicapping page, or subscribe for email alerts to stay on track!
