Sunday’s action at The Lady in Black was fast, furious, and long-awaited. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. started off as only he could by hitting the wall then shedding flames on his way to the garage – all before completing a single lap. Later, Jimmie Johnson ruined his own day with an ill-advised move to close Stage One. Fortunately, everybody gets another crack at The Lady in Black in Wednesday’s 311-mile Darlington encore.
ICYMI, NASCAR announced an extension of their schedule into deep June. We’re especially hyped for a couple short-track clashes at the iconic Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway. The Cup Series circles back to Atlanta and Homestead after cancelled races during the two month hiatus. These four are solid tracks to handicap, leading into an ‘anything goes’ visit to Talladega in late June. ‘Dega always has tense action and can be as volatile as Daytona. We’re in for some good ones over the next month.
The Closer Slams the Door
Kevin Harvick dominated the latter half of Sunday’s race, retuning his backers anywhere between +650 to +800. Admittedly, we did not take The Closer to win the race but Harvick treated us well by topping Kyle Busch and finishing in the Top 5. (Big props to our guy at Playing the Odds NASCAR Style for turning us on to the solid price on the matchup.) Harvick looked damn good, even overcoming a pit miscue to get back to the top. In all fairness, the #4 team was very good with their stops otherwise.
Our Sunday betting card played out nicely with a 5-1 mark as matchups against Jimmie Johnson and William Byron cashed with the help of their mishaps. Kurt Busch’s and Matt Kenseth’s Top 10 efforts could have been good enough without their foes’ early problems, but any help we can get is appreciated. Sunday’s bottom line has a bit of a black cloud hanging over it because of how wrong I was about Martin Truex, Jr. Truex fought his way back to 6th place from as deep as 27th. Not only did he ultimately outclass Brad Keselowski in our matchup, he really put the heat on our No Top 5 bet. Watching him creep up the Top 10 during the last 25 laps certainly kept me on the edge of my seat. After a slow start to the season, Yanni and I are happy to get a solid return on Sunday’s investment.
JGR Toyotas in Play
Last week’s series of race previews featured a focus on the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas and how they fared in the early season. Kyle Busch is a stalwart on the circuit and is almost always a threat to win. Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones consistently produce at Darlington, taking them off my list of possible fades. This left Martin Truex Jr. as a driver with significant red flags in the young 2020 season. Ironically, Busch was the odd man out on Sunday after starting from the rear and finishing 26th. Earning his Darlington Stripe resulted in lingering issues that sent him to the pit late in the race, sealing his fate as an also-ran (not to mention causing wall damage that led to an interesting game of musical grills with that vinyl banner).
Convincing Performances?
Hamlin, Truex, and Jones finished 5-6-8 on Sunday – a respectable team output. Again, not the dominance we’ve seen from JGR teams in recent years but a solid showing nonetheless. I made the case against Truex in last weekend’s piece and bet accordingly, while wondering why bookmakers were giving MTJ so much respect. He clearly answered with a gutsy on-track performance that damn near torpedoed our card. So how do we recalibrate for Wednesday’s encore?
For starters, Truex is off the auto-fade list. Although I am not totally sold on him turning around his season on a dime, you have to respect the impressive Sunday comeback. Denny Hamlin knows how to manage his tires and won the 2017 Southern 500. So we can’t fade MTJ or overlook Hamlin, but what about Erik Jones? Our JGR breakdown put Jones’ slow start to the 2020 season against the fact that he appears to be a Darlington natural. As I said then, he’s aced all three tests in his young career at Darlington. His 8th place finish Sunday qualifies as another test aced as far as I am concerned. One small detail: the #20 team will be without Crew Chief Chris Gayle for Wednesday’s race due to a post-race lug nut violation.
A Strong Showing for Chevrolet
Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, and Chase Elliott finished 2-3-4 in their Chevy Camaros. These guys had fast cars and they drove them with purpose at one of the circuit’s most difficult tracks. I love to back Kurt Busch in the right situations and he delivered with his fourth Top 7 finish in as many tries. Busch’s strong run made my hesitancy to lay -118 in the Top 10 market look downright foolish. Now Kurt sits around -160 for that same bet when they run it back at Darlington. Chase Elliott followed up a 4th place run at Fontana with a 4th at the track Too Tough to Tame. Throughout the race, Chase never seemed to be much of a factor, yet he was strong enough to pick up his second Top 5 Darlington finish in three years.
Alex Bowman benefited from starting the race in the front row alongside Kevin Harvick. He took the lead early but ran the hell out of his tires on the abrasive surface. Then he got passed by veterans like Harvick and Keselowski, giving the impression that this kid was going to struggle here over the course of 400 miles. Well, that couldn’t have been farther from the truth. Alex clearly took his free lesson in tire management seriously and ran a very good race in Stages Two and Three. His Fontana win and runner-up on Sunday indicate that the #88 team has dramatically improved at these rough tracks.
The Old Guard
Darlington was disappointing for Chevy drivers Jimmie Johnson and William Byron, who both ran in the lead pack for considerable stretches. JJ ended a promising day with a bone-headed move that put the race leader head-first smack into the inside wall. It was pure driver error on Jimmie’s part, and he recounted it with regret in an interview after the wreck. Byron’s tire damage put him several laps down late, effectively sealing a victory for our Matt Kenseth matchup. William was rounding into form prior to the season’s hiatus, but Sunday’s result was par for the course. His limited Darlington experiences now amount to 35th, 21st, and 35th place finishes.
Despite earlier Cup successes, Kenseth didn’t really begin to groove with The Lady until 2006, when he had the first of four straight Top 10 finishes. The pot really started to boil when he landed in a Gibbs Toyota in 2013. From 2013 to 2017, Kenseth finished worse than 6th only once (21st in 2015).
The Return of NASCAR to Darlington: An Early Look (BetCrushers.com – May 3, 2020)
Sunday’s Kenseth-Byron matchup is a good segue into recounting Kenseth’s first race out of retirement. He piloted the #42 Camaro to a solid 10th place finish; he held the line quite well and stayed out of trouble. You simply cannot underestimate the ability a seasoned veteran has in navigating one of the circuit’s most challenging tracks. Kenseth finished just ahead of his 12th place starting position by simply surviving and keeping clean with a car that has been very good at Darlington for years. Not bad at all for a 48-year old taking the wheel of a Chevrolet for the first time at this level on the fly.
The BetCrushers’ Darlington Playbook – Take Two
Recent winner Kevin Harvick gets the luxury of starting….20th in Wednesday’s race??? NASCAR.com explained that Sunday’s Top 20 finishers will be inverted for the upcoming start and the final twenty will file in behind them as they finished. The system is as good as anything without the benefit of qualifying and only five prior races determining the season’s standings. 5Dimes opened the market to win Wednesday’s “Toyota 500” with Harvick edging out Kyle Busch at the top. If you’re interested in backing the #4 to pull off back-to-back Darlington wins, his odds are more in the +325 to +400 neighborhood after a day of betting into the opening lines.
The NASCAR page at BetCrushers.com is the first place we post our plays on the upcoming races. This week requires really quick turnarounds between the two Darlington contests and then Sunday’s Coke 600 at Charlotte – three races in eight days! We’ll keep you covered with reliable race handicapping and a look at where our money is at. Speaking of which, here’s our playbook for the Toyota 500:
Kurt Busch -110 vs. Joey Logano
Sure, Kurt gets a disadvantageous 18th starting position Wednesday night while Joey jumps to the second row. On face value, this does not concern me. Logano slid from his 9th starting position to an 18th place finish on Sunday. Conversely, Busch piloted the #1 Chevy from a 22nd position start to 3rd when the checkered flag flew. Is starting position the reason why Kurt Busch finds himself a slight dog in this matchup?
I think we’ve made the case for Kurt Busch in articles posted over the past couple weeks. So why fade Joey Logano at Darlington? Joey was the 2018 Southern 500 runner-up and had back-to-back Top 5s in 2015 & 2016. Hell, he is this year’s Las Vegas and Phoenix race champion. Sunday’s 18th place finish was on par with his Darlington efforts in four of the previous seven races, as opposed to Kurt’s four Top 10s in the last five. For Wednesday’s 311-mile contest, the consistently-good Kurt Busch looks solid at a coin flip price in a matchup over Joey Logano.
Kyle Busch -115 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
As mentioned above, full props go to MTJ for his impressive comeback on Sunday. With that said, it’s time to back Kyle Busch after his Darlington Stripe squashed his equally-impressive run from a dead last starting position. He weaved all the way back to the lead pack and was threatening late in the race. Aside from Sunday’s mishap, Busch has outraced Truex at Darlington in every race since 2012 other than MTJ’s 2016 Southern 500 victory. Give me Kyle Busch over JGR teammate Martin Truex, Jr. in a pick ’em matchup similar to that of his brother, Kurt.
Erik Jones -120 vs. William Byron
Young William Byron was holding onto his good starting position early last weekend. Then tire issues got them best of him and put the #24 Camaro several laps down. After another also-ran finish, we’re inclined to think that Byron still hasn’t grasped how to race at Darlington. His three 15th place finishes at Fontana hint at some upside at abrasive tracks, but this one is a different animal altogether. Conversely, Erik Jones continues to find a way to make the Top 10 here. Wednesday should yield five out of five Darlington Top 10s for a guy who knows how to play his cards on these rough tracks. I give Erik Jones about a 75% shot to finish 10th or better, which should be more than enough to top William Byron in their matchup.
The Action is Heating Up
NASCAR’s calendar extends well into June and there’s still a good chance we get half of an MLB season. If the owners and players can get on the same page, we’ll be handicapping baseball in about six weeks. Be sure to follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email alerts when new articles go live:
