After a three-month layoff the NASCAR Cup Series is back, baby! The green flag drops on the Great American Race Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and we’ve got you covered with the BetCrushers’ Daytona 500 Betting Card. NASCAR’s highest circuit continues to evolve with rules, race packages, and the car itself. The current 6th Generation ride will be replaced with a Next Gen machine in 2021, and a number of schedule changes for next season is expected to give race fans a better season-long experience. Short tracks and road courses will have new rules packages that we will cover throughout the early goings of the 2020 season. Here’s a few notable driver changes for the new year:
- Matt DiBenedetto recovers from losing his seat in the #95 Toyota by jumping into the #21 Wood Brothers Ford from the retired Paul Menard
- Rising star Christopher Bell comes from the Xfinity Series to take over the #95 Toyota
- Former Xfinity Series young gun Cole Custer drives the #41 Stewart-Haas Ford vacated by Daniel Suarez
- John Hunter Nemecheck gets a full-time ride in the #38 Ford
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. swaps the #17 Ford with Chris Buescher’s #47 Chevy
NASCAR kicks off the new season with the most anticipated race of the season: the Daytona 500. It also happens to be one of the most unpredictable races on the schedule. Huge pile-ups that can instantly change the course of the race are expected occurrences. It doesn’t help that veteran drivers are knocking off the winter rust alongside an influx of young racers from the Xfinity Series making their debuts. Bottom line is that the Daytona 500 can be rough and raw. We saw this in last weekend’s Busch Clash, where guys were sliding through pit boxes and the only cars left to finish really went through the ringer.
Talkin’ About Practice
Friday’s practice gave us plenty to consider, but be sure to keep an eye on Saturday’s 12:30 p.m. ET session. Although we are already operating with a considerable amount of information, the final practice run can reaffirm or overrule some of our conclusions. William Byron logged the fastest lap in his #24 Chevy on Friday, showing off the speed that earned him a win in one of Thursday’s Duels. In fact, the new 2020 Camaro was pretty damn fast with seven of them dominating the fast lap category.
The 10-lap averages paint a picture stacked with Toyotas. Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, rookie Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, and Erik Jones worked out #1-5 in the 10-lap. Half of the field registered a 15-lap average and only those five Toyotas put in enough work for 25-lap averages. In the critical 15-lap listing, a slug of eight Fords headlined by Cole Custer and Joey Logano sits right behind the Toyotas. Only two Chevrolets put in enough work to register long runs, leaving many of us still wondering how the Camaro will pan out in long runs during Sunday’s 500 miles. Keep your eyes on Saturday’s practice session for more answers.
Cash on the Track
Let’s get to what sports bettors are waiting for, and that’s a handicap for the 2020 Daytona 500. While my mother-in-law is still trying to find out which manufacturer NASCAR is slipping bad tires in for, I’m looking at more concrete intel for the Great American Race. Trending performances in superspeedway races, practice times, and other insights keep pointing me in one direction: Joe Gibbs Racing. After all, Coach Gibbs produced four dominant teams last season that took down 19 wins (and one NASCAR Championship): Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Erik Jones. Dynasties can begin and end on short notice, but I am inclined to side with the best this week at Daytona. After all, JGR bagged a 1-2-3 finish in the 2019 Daytona 500 with Hamlin, Kyle, and Jones.
Be sure to check out my guy @NASCARstyleodds for his race preview and picks. Definitely worth a read for another betting perspective:
Kyle Busch -125 to Top 10
Whether you love him or hate him, Kyle Busch is your 2019 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. He pushed his way through at Daytona last year with a second-place finish in the 500 and a respectable fourteenth in the Coke Zero 400 later that summer. Busch took his hot start and ran with it all the way to Homestead where he hoisted the hardware for his second NASCAR Championship. His title defense starts here at the Augusta National of stock car racing.
Speed, resources, and a winning track record. That’s what Kyle Busch and the JGR Toyota squad bring to the table. I’m not the type of bettor who challenges the unpredictability of Daytona by playing a driver to win, especially in an environment where big crashes can take out multiple contenders. My way to back Busch is taking him to finish in the Top 10. Kyle is either going to get knocked out of the race or he’ll be up there challenging for the checkered flag in mile 500. Sounds obvious, but at -125 I’m a buyer of him keeping clean on Sunday.
Erik Jones -112 over Kyle Larson
Carrying forward the JGR love with a near pick ’em matchup, I’m looking at Erik Jones also to repeat his strong 2019 performance. Jones survived last Sunday’s Busch Clash to kick off his fourth year at the Cup Series level in style. Many expect the Camrys to be strong again, but what to expect out of the new Camaro in NASCAR’s crowned jewel race? That’s the question that may be less cloudy after Saturday’s practice, although we know this machine is fast. Both of these guys are legitimate Championship contenders in 2020 and I tend to lean towards the JGR Camrys until proven otherwise.
Larson delivered a strong seventh-place finish in the 2019 Daytona 500. His 20th in the summer Coke Zero 400 edged out Jones’ 23rd, although Erik continues to progress sharply as he has gained experience at the Cup level. Hell, he won the 2018 running of the 400 and followed up with a damn good 2019 season. Jones peaked with a big summer before a disappointing fade in the early playoff stages. This is no slam dunk, but it is another legitimate way to back the Gibbs’ Toyotas on Sunday. Erik Jones is a star on the rise and is primed to do damage again in the 2020 Daytona 500.
Changing Seasons
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