Preview:
Wow, what a ridiculously entertaining weekend of Wild Card games from start to finish with no lack of exciting plays, nail-biting finishes, controversial calls and storylines. If the Divisional round can give us even half of what we got this past weekend it will be another really fun football Saturday and Sunday. The top seeds are rested and ready to take on a pretty strong group of competition in their home stadiums.
We’re recovering from a poor weekend at the books as we fell prey to the Saints teaser that many other amateur and pro-bettors did, and despite a first half that looked solid for our over bet in the Titans and Patriots game, a defensive long-drive running second half doomed us to a loss. The good news is, we’ve got some great opportunities to get back on the horse and hopefully ride this round to some nice profit. The bad news is, we don’t like these games much as the lines and totals all seem right about where they need to be. As a result, we opted to not force the issue and we’re going to only put out one play and hope that the Championship round offers some more enticing wagers. Here’s a look at how we see these matchups developing, as well as the bet we’re going to play.
AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
vs. 
Tennessee Titans (9-7) ATS(9-7-1) at Baltimore Ravens (14-2) ATS(10-6)
Saturday January 11th
8:15pm
CBS
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 47 (-110)
The Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens don’t play in the same division but they’ve had a nice rivalry and some big games throughout their history in the league. Things get renewed in Baltimore as the Ravens fresh off their bye take on a Titan team that not many people thought would still be playing. If you’re a fan of the ground game, sit back and enjoy Derrick Henry on one side and Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram II and company on the other end. Baltimore is the current odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl, but this Tennessee team is not one that they should be overlooking.
THE TENNESSEE TITANS ON OFFENSE:
All eyes will be on Lamar Jackson in the first game of the weekend as he’ll headline this contest as the league’s presumptive MVP is ready for the playoffs. It’s Ryan Tannehill who has surprisingly been the league’s hottest quarterback throwing the ball over the last month of the regular season though as he’ll have a chance to make his own statement on Saturday. The Patriots were able to hold Tannehill and the Titans under 100 yards passing despite Tennessee coming away with the win. What’s not surprising is the offense was carried by workhorse Derrick Henry who was unstoppable and could not be tackled all day. This game should have a slightly different look with the Ravens tough interior run defense up for the challenge and no doubt focused on slowing down the big man. With all due respect to the game between Minnesota and San Francisco, the hitting and physical play in the trenches in this one is going to flat out nasty. Can the offensive line of the Titans win that matchup and get Henry going downhill where his yards after contact are tops in the league? It’s tough to go against Henry as no one has been able to contain him, but the Ravens might have the physical play if they can dedicate some help in the box to getting him to the ground. John Harbaugh is almost always focused on stopping the run first and making the other team try to beat them through the air and this won’t be an exception.
Ryan Tannehill will need to be back on his top game as he’ll face the very deep and talented Baltimore secondary that has been great since the acquisition of cornerback Marcus Peters at forcing mistakes and turning them into big plays. Expect the Ravens to alternate between man-to-man and zone in an effort to keep Tannehill off balance and to roll their coverage to rookie A.J. Brown. We discussed it last week and it never really came to fruition, but someone else besides Henry and Brown need to help be a third playmaking factor for this offense. Corey Davis was shut out and Johnnu Smith was a non-factor, yet Tennessee escaped with the win despite the painfully poor throwing numbers against New England. Anything is possible when you have Derrick Henry in the backfield, but it’s highly unlikely a 100 yard passing game from the Titans will translate into a win for a second weak in a row. Watch that matchup at the line of scrimmage and let’s see if the receivers from the Titans can step up and make some plays for Tannehill.
THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:
After getting a small sampling of Raven’s quarterback Lamar Jackson in prime-time, he’ll get the whole stage to himself looking to add playoff dominance to a regular season that was a full-time highlight reel. As much as he’d hate hearing it, we’re going to look at his threat running the ball in this game first as that’s where his strength truly is. That’s not to say he hasn’t been a really good passer, we’re just going to elaborate on that in just a minute. Let’s first look at what are facts, and that is that the Ravens literally ran their way through the league and into the record books. Averaging over 200 yards rushing per game is unheard of in the NFL but that’s what the threat of consistent 12 yard quarterback scrambles and the occasional 40 yard big play bursts will get you. The Titans will no doubt have their own scheme at stopping Jackson’s legs, yet no one has been able to really do that this season. Throw in the fact that the Titans DNA in their front seven is more built for a “smashmouth” style attack and Jackson could find some of those big plays. The Titans safety tandem of Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro will be two of the most important players in this football game. Will they be able keep Jackson from those backbreaking and critical runs in supporting their front seven without completely abandoning their responsibilities in pass coverage? That brings us back to Jackson as a passer. He has made great reads and be accurate with the football so you have to say he’s played really well throwing the football. The benefit he does have is because of so much attention that is paid to him, especially by safeties. he’s able to find receivers, specifically Mark Andrews and his tight ends for big plays as they’re generally as open as you’re going to see in the NFL.
Switching back to those important battles of the big guys let’s see how well Baltimore continues their running attack. Mark Ingram II looks like he’ll be a full-go by gametime which is really important not only for his hard running, but as the emotional leader of the offense. The Ravens have proven they can run the ball with anyone, but make no mistake about it, Ingram is the most important piece of that backfield by far. One last piece we should always mention when we’re looking at the Ravens ability to throw points on the board is reminding everyone that they have the best kicker, probably in the history of the game in Justin Tucker. If this game is close, you can’t underscore the importance of this huge advantage against the Titans and their replacement kicker Greg Joseph.
KEY STATS: – The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10
PUBLIC MONEY: – Tennessee Titans 55%
THE SKINNY:
We’ve been guilty of undervaluing the Titans a bit this year as they just continue to find a way to get things done. Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill could very well keep their success training going as 9.5 is a pretty big line for a team that just went on the road and won in Foxboro. We don’t have a huge trust in laying a number like this in the playoffs even though the Ravens are the presumptive favorites entering the tournament to win the Super Bowl. Mike Vrabel and the Titans have had a great season, however this one just seems like it will be a little too much for them to advance any further. Baltimore should win this game, the question is will it be close or could the Titans get a backdoor type cover? We don’t play a lot of 3 team 10 point teasers, but if you ever wanted to get a team 10 points this seems like the best time to do so. At the end of the day we’re not going to touch this one as the Ravens should get the win and most likely the cover, but the spread is simply too high. Our lean goes to Baltimore not only for having the rest, extra prep time, and Lamar Jackson, but also to fade the public a bit as the average Joes’ are on the Titans.
BetCrushers Lean: Baltimore Ravens – 9.5
Baltimore Ravens 32, Tennessee Titans 20
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
vs. 
Houston Texans (10-6) ATS(8-8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) ATS(10-5-1)
Sunday January 12th
3:05pm
CBS
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 51 (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs only lost 4 games during the regular season, but if you’re keeping score at home, one of those was to their Sunday opponent the Houston Texans. It was a shootout in the first half as the Chiefs stormed out to an early first quarter two touchdown lead before surrendering 20 second quarter points to the Texans. Defenses tightened up in the second half and the result was a touchdown victory for Houston. Things could be shaping up with some similarities, although the Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been and rested, while the Texans are coming off of a hard fought and grueling overtime victory against the Bills. Perhaps the biggest difference in this meeting compared to the first is the much improved defense of the Chiefs, which they will need to rely on to slow down the big-game wizardry of Deshaun Watson. The weather is still a little up in the air, but if it holds out, defense could end up being optional as the quarterbacks will take center stage when it matters most.
THE HOUSTON TEXANS ON OFFENSE:
Lost in the late game heroics of Deshaun Watson’s highlight overtime play is the fact that for three quarters, he really did not play well at all. (The same could be said for the Texans offensive line and WR DeAndre Hopkins). That’s why they say that stars and playmakers make big plays in big situations and Watson certainly fits that mold. Much like we discussed with Titans and Ryan Tannehill, it’s difficult to imagine the Texans having any success in this game with the Chiefs if they sleepwalk through the first three quarters of the game. On the one hand, they have a little easier assignment on paper against a Chiefs defense that is not as strong as the Bills. On the other, the Chiefs are one of the hottest defenses playing in the league, and oh by the way that juiced up homefield advantage they used to fuel their comeback and questionable officiating will now be working against them in Arrowhead. There is only one realistic way that Houston wins this game and that is if Watson has one of those ridiculous games throwing darts and bombs on target to his playmakers.
Speaking of those skill players, he may have Will Fuller back and we won’t beat the dead horse on how important that is for this offense. If you watched their game last weekend you heard a lot of really dumb things from Booger McFarland. While that is no surprise he did say one thing that was spot on needing to be drilled into head coach Bill O’Brien and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly’s head. Booger said, in big games, you have to find a way to get the ball to your best players even though the opposing defenses are lined up to take them away and referenced what the Saints do with Michael Thomas as a known weapon in New Orleans. This will be completely accurate again this week as Hopkins needs to have a monster game supporting Watson. If he doesn’t have a dozen targets in this game, the Texans will almost certainly be on the losing end when time expires. While they have played better in the second half of the season, Kansas City is vulnerable against the run, at least more so than the pass. Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson didn’t have huge games statistically against Buffalo but did enough to give some balance and made some timely plays. They’ll need to do more than that here as Carlos Hyde has the power to run through the Chiefs if they can keep the game close and stay committed to him. The offensive line for Houston was not good a week ago and facing Chris Jones and Frank Clark will have their hands full again dealing with a quick and powerful pass rush. If you’re looking for an “X” factor in this game, revitalized safety Tyrann Mathieu could come up with a big play at some point when the Chiefs need it most.
THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:
What a relief it must be for the Chiefs to know that their defense can contribute on their playoff run and not entirely put the burden of winning on their offense. And that’s a really good thing as this Chiefs offense has been a little bit average over the past month or so. It’s hard to know if that’s because Andy Reid has dialed some things back in preparation for the playoffs or more likely, if the team hasn’t felt like they need to score 40 points to win? It should be fun to see what kind of plan Andy Reid has both off of a bye week and with it being the playoffs. We know Reid has been historically good after extra time to prepare and he also has as many healthy options as he’s had all year. The offensive line is healthy, although you can make an argument they’ve been a very average unit as a whole. We’re curious to see if the obvious Damien Williams will carry the load in the running game or could we get a surprise with a veteran like LeSean McCoy who has hardly played in five weeks? It’s hard say for sure if Reid will even stay patient and disciplined enough to run the ball or if he’ll cut Patrick Mahomes loose and try to hit some big plays early on.
The more known entity in this game is that Mahomes will need to, and should make some plays to his skill players. You can also make a case that the slowing in offense is the fact that this team has gotten a little too “two-dimensional” by putting the workload almost exclusively on tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Sammy Watkins has been practically invisible as has Demarcus Robinson, and Mecole Hardman has been very hit or miss. When the Chiefs are at their best Mahomes is spreading it around and finding the mismatches and open receivers. You can’t argue with getting the ball to Kelce and Hill, but for the Chiefs to make the deep run they’re wanting to make, some of the other very capable players are going to need to step up. We haven’t talked much about the Texans defense and there’s a little bit of a reason for that. When you’re playing the Chiefs, it seems to not matter if you’re a great defense or a poor defense, they’re going to find ways to score. The goal for Romeo Crennel here has to be just to keep the game close as much as he can and give Watson and his team a chance in the fourth quarter. The Texans big names of J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Zack Cunningham didn’t have huge games, but they showed up big-time when it mattered most against Buffalo and they need a more consistent showing against this Chiefs offense.
KEY STATS: – The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS and in their last 6
– The Texans are 1-7-1 ATS following a win
against the spread
PUBLIC MONEY: – Kansas City Chiefs 52%
THE SKINNY:
As we stated at the beginning of this breakdown the Texans defeated the Ravens so we know that it can be done and Houston certainly does too. The likelihood of Will Fuller returning to the lineup is beyond huge for any chance that the Texans have to win. The Texans have been an up and down team for most of the season and coming off that draining emotional home win, they now need to play against a rested Chiefs team in Arrowhead Stadium. With another 9.5 spread it’s tough to pass up taking the points, and it’s possible that this could be a tough and contested battle throughout. We’re thinking it has a blowout potentially written all over it so we’ll lean towards the home team, although again, won’t be laying the big number.
BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Houston Texans 16
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME ONE
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers
vs. 
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) ATS(10-7) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3) ATS(9-6-1)
Saturday January 11th
4:35pm
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-110)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
In the biggest upset of Wild Card weekend (except to Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer), Minnesota went into New Orleans and took out Drew Brees and the red-hot Saints. They’re back on the road again heading from the deep south to the west coast to take on the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers. The Niners enjoyed their week off courtesy of a dramatic regular season finish and are chomping at the bit to get back on the field, playing with as complete of a roster as they’ve had since early in the season. Quarterback play is always important and will be in this contest, however this game is likely going to come down to the defenses and complimentary skill position players on offense.
THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS ON OFFENSE:
We talked a week ago about the importance of a healthy and fresh Dalvin Cook and how he is the motor that gets this Viking engine going. Everyone already knows this so we didn’t share anything earth-shattering, but boy did that ever prove to be true as he ran through the Saints early, often and all day. The look ahead to this game features Cook in another important role with two questions to really dig into: First, will his banged up shoulder hold up for a second game in a row after the physical contest against the Saints, and second, will he have similar success against a vaunted 49er defense? The shoulder part we can’t really guess at so let’s assume for the sake of handicapping this game that it will be fine. As for whether or not he can have success against the Niners, well our answer to that may surprise some people. Despite some big names and steep talent in the front seven, SF is not ranked in the top half of rushing defense in the league, and they’re allowing a not so boastful 4.5 yards per carry to opposing rushers. San Francisco is potentially welcoming back linebacker Kwon Alexander off of IR which could help, but he likely is still at least a week away from being a factor you’d have think.
As much as Cook is the key to this offense, we can’t emphasize enough what Kirk Cousins needs to do as well in the passing game. First and foremost Cousins cannot turn the ball over an aggressive defense that is rested off of the bye and can really get after him. He was great last week against pressure and will need to be again, taking care of the ball and moving the sticks. The Vikings were dealt a blow when Adam Thielen suffered a major cut this week at practice and while the signs point to him being ok to play, he too could have some limitations, as he’s had for most of the second half of the season. That means Stefon Diggs again becomes a key, and he needs to be more involved than he was last week. Diggs gets some kudos for encouraging Cousins to not force it to him and to take what was available against the Saints. The Vikings have been a pretty good screen team in 2019 and this game could be the perfect opportunity to neutralize the pass rushers of the 49ers. What will ultimately be the best way to beat the SF line is another A+ performance by their offensive line as they had a week ago.
THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:
If Cook is the engine for the Vikings offense, the running game for the 49ers is also the area of importance in how they go offensively. The biggest difference is they’ll be rotating backs based on situations and who is having the most success. Raheem Mostert has been red hot and the leader but Tevin Coleman will get his touches as well, and we may even see a re-emergence of Matt Breida if Kyle Shanahan trusts him to hold onto the ball. Linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr both played fantastic against the Saints and really shut down Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. The interior in the trenches with DT Linval Joseph matched up against the SF offensive line will be an all-day slugfest and an important one.
Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey are also going to be counted on to block the pass rushes of Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffin to keep quarterback Jimmy Garappolo upright and protected. Garappolo doesn’t need to win this game for SF, but he does need to make sure not to lose it. Much like his counterpart Kirk Cousins, his biggest priority in this game and really the rest of the way is playing smart football and not turning the ball over. We expect a gameplan focused around safe passing and a lot of play action if they can get the running game going. The Vikings are thin in their secondary so opportunities for the Niners speedy receivers like rookie Deebo Samuel and veteran Emmanuel Sanders could present the possibility for big plays over the top. With the offense that SF likes to run, it’s hard to figure out how Minnesota will be able to contain TE George Kittle. He could be the difference maker as he’s been in a few games this season.
KEY STATS: – The 49ers are 3-4-1 ATS at home this season
– The 49ers are 5-19-1 ATS in their last 25
home games
PUBLIC MONEY: – Minnesota Vikings 54%
THE SKINNY:
Will this be a tight and physical contest that comes down to the end like the Vikings had against the Saints or will the 49ers be able to roll through them? It’s a tough task for Minnesota coming off that emotional and hard fought win in New Orleans and heading across the country to the west coast. The 49ers were blowing teams out early in the season, but haven’t had a double digit win since early November as they’re schedule got tougher. While it’s very easy to picture San Francisco getting up early and putting Kirk Cousins in a tough position in a prime-time game, we’re going to lean towards taking the solid touchdown with the spread. This is a classic case of the spread being pretty spot on and at least as of yet, sharp money or the casinos haven’t really pushed in one direction or the other. It very well may end up being a 34-10 game, but we’d opt to take the touchdown and see what happens if we were going to play it.
BetCrushers Lean: Minnesota Vikings +7
San Francisco 49ers 26, Minnesota Vikings 20
NFC WILD CARD GAME TWO
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
vs. 
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) ATS(8-8-1) at San Francisco 49ers (13-3) ATS(10-6)
Sunday January 12th
6:40pm
Lambeau Field – Green Bay, WI
Green Bay Packers -4 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
The final game of the divisional round is another pairing of teams that have given us some classics in recent years as the Seahawks are also on the road again to take on the Packers. Two of the league’s premier quarterbacks will be on display when Russell Wilson looks to continue to find ways to win against a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who has been downright dominant playing at home. Both teams have relied on defenses that have been largely up and down throughout the regular season and this one could come down to which defense is able to make a big play against the opposing team. Opening with a spread of GB -4 this is figuring to be a close ballgame with each team likely needing to play a full sixty minutes to come away with a win.
THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ON OFFENSE:
The Seahawks weren’t particularly great on offense last week, but they made big plays when it counted, specifically on third downs. They also got their first real look at what kind of a pro D.K. Metcalf can be as an NFL wide receiver. Their game against the Packers could look similar to how they battled the Eagles when you examine the breakdown. An area that they’ll need to exploit differently is in the running game. Head coach Pete Carroll wants to get Marshawn Lynch more involved in the running game and this is the best time to do it. Green Bay’s biggest weakness defensively is when they face big and physical running backs. Lynch hasn’t really shown a lot thus far outside of some goal line touchdowns, however this could be his opportunity to shine. Throw in the fact it should be pretty cold and possibly even snowing in Green Bay and Beast mode could be in full effect.
When it comes to the passing game, one of the Seahawks weapons needs to have a big day. It really doesn’t matter if it’s Tyler Lockett or Metcalf as long as someone can make plays when needed. Defensively for the Packers, Z’Darius Smith has been a man on a mission wrapping up the regular season and the team will be counting on him to get fast pressure on Russell Wilson and not allow him to escape the pocket. The Packers defense is stronger on the outside and weakens a bit as you work toward the interior so Wilson absolutely will have to use his legs in the middle of the field scrambling. If Z’Darius Smith and his opposite side mate Preston Smith can get to Wilson before he has a chance to take off, it could spell trouble for the Hawks.
THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:
Before we look at the skill players, let’s take a look at the most important matchup up the day on this side of the ball where Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari will be locked up with the Seahawks Jadeveon Clowney. At his worst, Clowney has been quiet at times during the season, but at his best he has been a game-wrecking difference maker, which he’ll need to be for this Seattle defense. Overall, even though the Green Bay offense has not been particularly dynamic, they have a clear advantage over what has been a bottom half of the league defense all season. The biggest advantage the Packers have is with running back Aaron Jones and in the running game against the Hawks’ defense which is allowing nearly five yards per carry. If the Packers offensive line can get the push they’ll be looking for Jones could carry Green Bay all the way to a win. Davante Adams will be Rodgers number one target and will manage to lead the way, but there is a disappointing target at tight end that could come to life. The Seahawks have been awful at defending the tight end which means maybe, just maybe we’ll have a Jimmy Graham sighting?
KEY STATS: – The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10
games as an underdog
PUBLIC MONEY: – Seattle Seahawks 60%
THE SKINNY:
This game can be looked at in a couple of different buckets in terms of what you believe is more likely to happen. The first scenario is that Rodgers and the Packers continue to dominate at home and against a poor defense cruise to a relatively easy victory. The other would be that you’re in the camp of “Russell Wilson” will always figure out a way to make things into a field goal game. If the Packers were on the road, we’d be all over seattle no matter what the line was, but of course they earned this bye and homefield advantage. The Seahawks are a trendy pick this week and the public money is on them, but we’re going to follow that suit here as well. Green Bay will most likely find a way to come up with the win, but Wilson will figure out a way to carry his team down to the wire.
