Monday’s solo shot in the desert was, in fact, fruitful despite my hesitation. Gunnar Henderson’s 2-for-5 evening with a pair of runs and stolen bases may have knocked the rust off of the O’s shortstop. His contribution led to a much-needed win for Baltimore, especially after last night’s close loss. We switch climates by heading to Tampa for a surprisingly good matchup perfect to discuss in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-9-2025.
Note: I’ll do what I can to fire off another post Friday morning before heading to San Diego on Saturday. That trip will keep the MLB Morning Breakdown on the bench until Monday the 21st. Petco Park, here we come!
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ TAMPA BAY RAYS (TBR -140, 8)
Y Kikuchi (L) vs. R Pepiot (R)
The Angels/Rays series opener just about had it all. A tight score that stayed just under the total, a home run for each side, and blown saves by each bullpen. Why get involved in tonight’s follow-up at George Steinbrenner Field? Damn good question…and the answer, of course, is price. Forget about how the Halos have won three in a row and are tied atop the AL West. Likewise, Tampa Bay’s 4-6 record is skewed after dropping five straight at the hands of Pittsburgh and Texas prior to last night. The futures markets pegged the Rays for about 7 more wins than the Angels – and they’re only 10 games into the season.
Last night’s tilt featured bullpens that we projected to be below average from a 10,000-foot view. Key questions surround iffy middle relief and the ever-interesting Kenley Jansen for L.A.; plenty of inexperience shades the Tampa bullpen. Results to date have favored the Rays’ group (3.64 ERA, 3.13 FIP/3.00 xFIP) over the visitor’s (5.71 ERA, 4.83 FIP/4.64 xFIP). Pare these numbers down to the past week and neither has been stellar, posting ERAs in excess of 5.27 and FIPs/xFIPs well above 4.00. Plus there is concern with which leverage arms may not be available for the Angels tonight.
All About Starting Pitching
Tampa Bay starter Yusei Kikuchi has accomplished one positive so far in 2025: going a full 6 innings in each of his two starts. 5 walks against St. Louis and 3 runs in each outing do not paint a picture of effectiveness by any means; however, we’ve come to find out just how much of an over team the Cardinals are right now. His lack of whiffs and an abundance of fly balls are a tough combination though. Yet Kikuchi’s expectations right around the 4.00 mark deserve some respect after reinventing himself in the 2023-2024 seasons.
The Rays might actually be of help to the 33-year-old. In a small-sample 76 plate appearances against lefties, they’ve slashed just .152/.250/.212 while striking out 3 times as often as they’ve walked. Granted, the .217 BABIP could be the silver lining to that dark cloud…as could a not quite dialed in Yusei Kikuchi. This is a spot where Yandy Diaz and Christopher Morel should be chomping at the bit with the hope of finally getting out of second gear. This is a need at this point, especially with the hot-hitting Jonny DeLuca just added to the IL. So who has the edge when things are shaky on both sides of the equation?
Ryan Pepiot has performed much better than his counterpart, posting a 2.45 ERA with a 3.61 FIP/3.89 xFIP in two starts. He was magnificent in Tampa Bay’s opener, holding the Rockies at bay until Kameron Misner’s walk-off bomb in the 9th. The lack of run support against Paul Skenes led to a tough loss to Pittsburgh last time out. Los Angeles presents a different challenge altogether given their recent success at the plate. 12 home runs have propelled them to a .254/.335/.503 line over the last 7 days. Again, this span encompasses a scoring-friendly series in St. Louis. Surprising outputs by catcher Logan O’Hoppe and Kyren Paris filled in the few gaps left by the big bats of Mike Trout and Jorge Soler.
When Will Regression Unfold?
Tampa Bay sits well under expectation when it comes to hitting left-handers. As in 60% or so below expectation. Much of that is a general lack of opportunities in this split, making the muddled mix much closer to league-average. Kikuchi is another positive aspect to spur the Rays’ lineup – although Halos manager Ron Washington probably prefers to see Kevin Cash platoon out Jonathan Aranda and Kameron Misner for Curtis Mead and Jose Caballero.
There’s arguably less regression in store for L.A.’s performance against righties this season though. As for cooling off from this past week’s heater, that’s a more realistic expectation which began to unfold last night against Shane Baz. There is more parity between these two offenses when modeling with a higher weight to our preseason figures – especially compared to where they sit today. The favorable price tag based on a more balanced matchup is good enough for me to grab.
WAGER: Angels First 5 Innings +120 (0.5u risked)
WAGER: Angels +125 (0.5u risked)
Should the Kikuchi vs. Pepiot delta push me towards playing the full game instead of relying on Yusei straightening up? How about the Angels’ compromised bullpen though? Although my numbers say the first 5 inning price is a better deal, so much of that relies on starting pitcher performance and batting splits. If I’m going to limit that exposure to a half-unit outlay I have to go somewhere with the other half. And that’s the full game where the margin is slimmer. It’s a price I cannot refuse. It’s up to the players to do their thing now. BOL.
2025 Featured Handicap Results
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for our daily baseball handicapping and season previews. Want our newest content delivered directly to you? Follow us on X or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL!
