Hungry for the MLB season to get started? How about an appetizer to hold you over? With just over one week until the official Opening Day, we get the 2025 Tokyo Series two-game set between the Chicago Cubs and World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The series spans Tuesday, March 18th and Wednesday, March 19th. Both games begin at 7:10 p.m. local time; 6:10 a.m. ET/3:10 a.m. PT so be sure to set an alarm!
Where Are We Playing Ball?
The Tokyo Dome played host to regular season MLB games five other times going back to the 2000 face-off between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets. No significant scoring bias is associated with this venue. A generic total of 8.5 splits those ten games 5-5 around the number. Dimensions are 330 feet down both lines and 400 feet to straightaway center, very similar to the 2024 Seoul Series venue. The Tokyo Dome is situated about 30 feet above sea level and is climate controlled. So nothing too outrageous to adjust for.
Division Front Runners
ICYMI, our team previews for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs provide their big picture overviews. Both the Dodgers and Cubs are preseason favorites to win their divisions. But not all favorites are created equal. You can play Chicago around even money to take the NL Central for the first time since 2020. To back Los Angeles, however, you’ll have to lay 5/1 or 6/1 odds. As much as it may sound like a slam dunk there are much better ways to earn.
Nobody should be surprised that the Dodgers are favorites in each game of the Tokyo Series. Not only are they the defending World Champions who won a league-high 98 games, they improved their roster in the offseason with multiple impact free agents like Blake Snell and Tanner Scott. Plus the Dodgers re-signed outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and high-leverage reliever Blake Treinen to maintain their stout core. But it’s not like the Cubs sat on their hands this winter. Chicago traded with the Astros for elite outfielder Kyle Tucker and closer Ryan Pressly before linking up with the Dodgers to obtain high-leverage reliever Ryan Brasier.
Injury Updates
The biggest news to break from Tokyo – aside from the Hanshin Tigers shutting both MLB teams out in their exhibition games – is Mookie Betts missing the series due to illness. This is a key consideration resulting in 10-ish cent price adjustment to the early lines. Manager Dave Roberts is expected to use Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas in his middle infield without Betts.
Additionally, 11 Dodgers pitchers are on the team’s projected IL as of early Monday morning. 5 starters are carryovers recovering from 2024 surgeries (Hurt, Kershaw, Ryan, Sheehan, and Stone) and 1 will begin the season on the list due to back discomfort (Gonsolin). The 5 relievers are a mixed bag of guys who went under the knife (Graterol and Grove) and those battling through setbacks (Kopech, Phillips, and Henriquez). Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner is the lone position player on the shelf, yielding his position to veteran Jon Berti for the Tokyo Series.
The Tale of the Tape
The most impactful differential between these teams concerns their lineups. We already shaved quite a bit from the Dodgers’ 2024 numbers while the Cubs received a minor uptick primarily from the Kyle Tucker acquisition. Now Mookie Betts’ absence shaves several more percent from L.A.’s offensive projections for this series. That said, don’t underestimate the loss of Nico Hoerner in this series – both defensively and offensively compared to veteran substitute Jon Berti or Vidal Brujan. For what it’s worth, Berti has looked solid at the plate so far in Spring Training as has their lineup as a whole. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong have been especially noteworthy in camp.
Both teams played exhibition games against a Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) team on March 15th and March 16th as part of the road show. Position players are tuned up for regular action and the Tokyo Series starting pitchers are rested. Neither team used any primary relievers in Sunday’s contests so no bullpen usage adjustments are necessary. That should hold true going into game 2 without another game on deck for more than a week. L.A.’s slim relief pitching advantage is primarily through the Scott-Yates-Treinen-Vesia high-leverage combination. They rate slightly better than Pressly-Hodge-Brasier-Miller for Chicago. The Dodgers’ lefty/righty bullpen balance is a plus given both lineups’ variety.
Game 1 (March 18th, 6:10 am ET): LAD -150, 7.5
Y Yamamoto (R) vs. S Imanaga (L)
As we all know, starting pitching significantly impacts the handicap. L.A.’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto picked up this spring where he left off from a strong MLB rookie campaign. Pinpoint command produces enough ground balls without free passes for mid-3.00s estimates this season. Yamamoto features enough swing-and-miss to be effective and has ramped into 5-inning form much like he did to start last season. Don’t forget about his rough debut against the Padres in the Seoul Series where he was thumped for 5 runs in just a single inning of work.
Chicago’s Shota Imanaga rattled off three games without an unearned run to start the 2024 season, including a 2-hit effort against the Dodgers. The 31-year-old southpaw’s low BABIP extended into Spring Training where a pair of rough outings sandwiched a strong effort against the Padres. Imanaga’s stellar command produced an impressive 6.5 K/BB ratio in camp that he needs to keep a righty like Teoscar Hernandez (or Mookie Betts) in check.
Key Matchup
Last season, the Dodgers ranked as the most productive park-adjusted offense against left-handed pitching. We made a stiff adjustment downward in that split to start the 2025 season though. Why? Teoscar Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani were two of L.A.’s biggest weapons against southpaws; both of whom are positioned to regress 15-20% this year. Mookie Betts’ absence creates an interesting wrinkle by bumping Andy Pages onto their initial 26-man roster. The rookie was deadly in 107 plate appearances versus left-handers (.357/.396/.520). Regardless, our preseason expectation has the Dodgers remaining as a top three team against lefties.
Shota’s general outlook calls for a drift up towards the FIP/xFIP portion of his 2024 numbers (2.91 ERA, 3.72 FIP/3.62 xFIP). Consider that with respect to his handedness splits:
S Imanaga Splits Performance (2024)
| AVG | OBP | SLG | K/BB | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs. L | .212 | .234 | .343 | 10.00 | 3.08/3.29 |
| vs. R | .229 | .266 | .396 | 5.58 | 3.89/3.71 |
| Season | .225 | .259 | .385 | 6.21 | 3.72/3.62 |
Our range on this game generally agrees with the price set by Bookmaker. Yamamoto having a .45 – .75 edge over Imanaga is a big part of the number as we find the bullpens very close in their current forms. The game total is solid as well, although a closer look at team totals is warranted. But there is something for nearly everyone with the Game 1 money line price. High on Chicago’s Spring Training offense? A return around +130 can be found out there. Want to back the World Champs despite Mookie being out? FanDuel is still dealing -146.
Game 2 (March 19th, 6:10 am ET): LAD -150, 8.5
R Sasaki (R) vs. J Steele (L)
Los Angeles turns to Roki Sasaki for his MLB debut on native soil. Could he bomb like Yamamoto did in Seoul this time last year? Always a possibility. The 23-year-old NPB standout is a step down from Yoshinobu in the big picture, mainly on the low tail end of his performance range. It is noted that Roki’s stuff wasn’t quite as sharp last season in Japan which also plays into the handicapping uncertainty with the young star. That said, the kid pitched 7 scoreless innings in two Spring Training outings against Cleveland and Cincinnati.
Southpaw Justin Steele should present the Cubs with a better opportunity to win in Game 2. The key caveat: two of Steele’s three Spring Training starts yielded 9 runs, including Milwaukee’s 3 home run affair in last Tuesday’s outing. He is projected to be about a quarter- to a half-run better than Imanaga in the big picture this season though. Steele’s edge comes from weaker contact and resultant lower slugging numbers against him. The big-hitting Dodgers will certainly put that to the test in Tokyo!
Eroding the Advantage
The same handedness attributes for each lineup are in play from Game 1. Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch all slugged .450+ against right-handed pitching last season and are expected to be in the same ballpark if not slightly down in 2025. But left-handed hitting Pete Crow-Armstrong is making a strong case this spring to achieve a projected firm bump up this season. We’re holding out to see if the market offers a little bit more on the take-back price given the tighter pitching matchup.
Bring On the Season!
The Tokyo Series is real baseball but the legitimate Opening Day is right around the corner. If you missed the bad takes in our Division Preview series, head over to the MLB page at BetCrushers.com to get caught up. Follow our feed on X or subscribe below for email alerts when new articles drop. BOL this season!
