Previous Week Plays – 2-3
Season Record – 3-8
Week 2 Recap:
In over two and a half decades of wagering on the NFL, it’s not hyperbole to say that the first two weeks of 2024 season are like nothing we have ever witnessed. Don’t believe us, check with the country’s generally most respected sportsbook, Circa Las Vegas. Their survivor contest absolutely crushed the field after just a couple of weeks as the heaviest favorites lost outright. And in their picks contest, the most heavily bet on teams went 1-4 in week number one, and 0-5 in week number two. Keep in mind, there are some of the most long-term successful and respected sports bettors in the world playing in these contests. We’ll use that to make ourselves feel a little better about our dreadful 3-8 start to the season. It’s been a combination of bad handicapping, bad beats, and just overall insanity. In week number two, we lost on the under in the Seahawks and Patriots game, as in the first quarter, the two teams came out looking like the 2000 Rams. The final three quarters went exactly as we expected the game to go, but too much damage had been done. When Nick Folk made his field goal to tie it up at 20 near the end of regulation, the under was busted. We did grab a win with the Browns team total under, as the same thing happened there. It looked questionable at first as the Browns scored on their second possession, but after that they got very little going and thankfully when they recorded a safety on Trevor Lawrence at the end of the game they only landed with 18 points securing the cover. We expected some points, playing the over in the Raiders and Ravens game, and the Raiders came through with a big fourth quarter helping it comfortably sail over. However, we also teased the Ravens, and well, we all saw how that played out. We also lost a teaser with the primetime games, as we had the Texans and Eagles teased as home favorites. The Texans got it done, albeit blowing their cover depending on what number you may have had, but the Eagles choked away a game in historic fashion as the ESPN graphic showing a 98% chance of winning with less than two minutes left went up in flames. All of that wrapped up a 2-3 documented weekend and leaves us scratching our head and searching for more.
Week 3 Picks:
Week three is either going to be the week that reverts back to some “normalcy” in terms of what should be happening in the league, or it might just be what NFL betting is in 2024? If it’s the latter, our articles are going to be short and sweet from that point on as sometimes you gotta know when to fold em’. Chances are things will even out a bit, and all of the betting world, including the BetCrushers can rebound a bit and hopefully get back on the right side of that black and red line. One thing is for sure, we’re doing some “square” chalky stuff again this weekend. The public simply is desperate for a winning weekend and we’re hopefully coming along for the ride. We’ve got three favorites against the spread, a teaser bet, and one team total we’re keyed in on.
Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
vs. 
Houston Texans (1-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
Sunday September 22nd
1:00pm
U.S. Bank Stadium – Minneapolis, MN
Houston Texans -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Raise your hand if you had the Texans and Vikings playing to remain undefeated entering week three of the NFL season. It’s not shocking to see the Texans sitting at 2-0, but seeing the Vikings right there with them, with Sam Darnold as a top player after a couple of weeks was definitely not in our crystal ball. After a convincing win against the San Francisco 49ers, we’re going to see if the Minnesota Vikings are a legitimate contender in the NFC against a Houston team that many feel is a top contender in their conference.
It’s never a bad thing when you haven’t lost a game yet, and it still seems like you haven’t played your best football. That’s the case for the Texans offense, that has looked fine, if not spectacular in their first two contests. They’ll look to get some rhythm going against a Minnesota defense that has been pretty stingy during their perfect start. The Texans may be without running back Joe Mixon, who left their week two contest with an ankle injury. Make no mistake about it, the Texans offense is substantially more explosive when they’re running the ball well, and the absence could be noticed if Mixon can’t go. This is especially true because the Vikings are one of a few teams that have three legitimately good starting cornerbacks. That’s important in trying to matchup with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been one of the smoothest and steadiest players since he started, and he’ll need to rely on those traits to get through this Vikings defense. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has his defense believing they can be great, they will not be afraid to challenge Stroud and this trio of wide receivers. The players that could end up being the quiet contributor for Houston against this defense may be tight ends Dalton Schultz and Brevin Jordan.
The Vikings offense has been playing without one of the league’s top tight ends in T.J. Hockenson, and without WR2 Jordan Addison, and somehow is rolling right along. It’s not hard to pinpoint the why here, and that’s because their offensive line is playing really really well. They’ve been able to run the ball with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler, and quarterback Sam Darnold has had time in the pocket to throw. That’s more than likely going to change a bit against a Texans defense that is aggressive and opportunistic. It’s definitely a strength vs. strength matchup in the trenches, but the Texans boast one of the stingiest run defenses in the entire league. It’s going to be tough sledding on the ground, which means the Vikings will have to attack through the air, with really just All-World Justin Jefferson to throw to. Jefferson is of course as good as it gets at the position, however, Houston has a more than capable secondary that should hold Jefferson somewhat in check, and can contain the other backup weapons in the Minnesota passing attack. Where the Vikings offense will look most different though will be at the quarterback position, where Sam Darnold may look a little more like New York Jet version Darnold, than 2024 version Darnold. The Texans attack as well as any tandem in the league off of the edges with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Jr., and the addition of Azeez Al-Shaair has only made this unit even more physical. Darnold will need to be decisive and accurate, and make good decisions if he wants to attempt to continue his sharp play to start the season.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Texans are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their history vs. the Vikings
– The Texans are 5-2 straight up in their last 7 road games
– The Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games
It really does feel gross taking a road favorite against a team that has really showed out and is playing at home. Ultimately, these teams are in two different tiers however, and at some point Sam Darnold has to come back to earth a bit, right? Justin Jefferson is elite, but the Vikings can’t lean as much on their offensive line and running game in this matchup. The look ahead for this game was Texans -4.5, so we’ve crossed over the key number here, which really makes them a nice value play. Betting road favorites is generally not the way to sustained success in the NFL, but if you pick the right spots, it’s bound to work at times. This definitely seems like one of those times. Texans keep rolling, Vikings take a small step backwards.
BetCrushers Take: Houston Texans -2.5
Texans 23, Vikings 18
Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
vs. 
Detroit Lions (1-1) vs. Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Sunday September 22nd
4:25pm
State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Detroit Lions -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
The Lions take to the road for the first time this season to take on the Arizona Cardinals in a game that could be more competitive than originally thought. Detroit was near 5 point favorites a week ago, but that number has since dropped to the just a field goal, as the Cardinals impressive drubbing of the Rams undoubtedly changed public perception of their abilities. Points should come pretty easily for both teams who can both run and throw, and it may come down to which team can make critical stops to determine who comes away with their second win of the season.
Something hasn’t completely clicked yet with the Detroit Lions offense, and the initial view seems to be quarterback Jared Goff. The reality is, this Lions offense is extremely explosive, which makes even some slight stumbles seem like poor play from Goff and this group. They certainly have some things to clean up, but this offense could go nuclear in this matchup with the Cardinals. Arizona was able to punish the Rams in week two, but that was against a porous offensive line, and no real receiving threats when Cooper Kupp left the contest. They’ll have a lot more to worry about against one of the top offensive lines in the league. Their defensive front is not particularly strong at stopping the run, or rushing the passer, and the Lions are able to both run it and throw it well. Goff should have time to throw, which should also help him look more comfortable and effective in the pocket. With Jameson Williams starting to emerge, and signs of life from Amon-Ra St. Brown last week, this passing attack can take aim against Sean Murphy-Bunting and Starling Thomas on the corners. Arizona has been pretty good slowing down opposing tight ends, so it could be another quiet weekend for Sam LaPorta, but it probably won’t matter. The real path to victory for the Lions rests with running the football with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in this one. This is a game where Montgomery should be able to consistently hit six yard runs, and Gibbs has the ability to take it to the house at any point. If the Lions stay committed to the run, they’ll not only work their way down the field for points, they’ll also limit the Cardinals ability to get their own offense going.
Speaking of getting their offense going, that’s exactly what the Cardinals have done, and we saw first hand why they drafted Marvin Harrison, Jr. with their top pick last weekend. The Cardinals offensive line has been solid on the left side with Paris Johnson, Jr. anchoring things there, but the right side of their line has struggled. That’s not great as they’ll need a banged up and thirty-five year old Kelvin Beachum to try to hold down the fort against Aidan Hutchinson. All Hutchinson did a week ago was register 5+ sacks and more pressures. Quarterback Kyler Murray has escapability, however if he’s consistently running for his life, eventually bad things are going to happen. Murray will need to use his legs not only to escape, but potentially as a running weapon in general against a Lions front that can really shut down opposing runners. With D.J. Reader and Alim McNeill clogging things up the middle, this is not the type of defense running back James Conner usually finds success against. For the Cardinals to keep up on the scoreboard, they’re going to need to hit some big plays like they did last Sunday, avoid taking big sacks and negative plays, and get tight end Trey McBride a lot of receptions. All of those things can happen, there just isn’t a huge margin for error in this matchup.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games
– The Lions are 4-1 ATS and straight up against the Cardinals in their last 5 games
– The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
– The total has gone over in the 4 of the last 5 games for the Cardinals
A lot was made initially with Jared Goff not being as good on the road as he was in the comfort of his home stadium. That’s pretty much true for most players in general, but it isn’t completely true with Goff and the Lions. They’ve actually done just fine on the road over the last season, and especially in dome indoor environments, like what they’ll be playing in against the Cardinals. This evaluation is similar to the Texans/Vikings in the sense we’re getting good value from where this line was originally slated. Yes, the Cardinals are a legitimate team, particularly on offense, but the Lions are again, under the key number here. This is actually a dual play, as the Lions team total is very appealing. The Cardinals defense is not good, and the Lions offensive line should have them completely neutralized. As long as the Lions can capitalize in the red zone, they should get to thirty plus points in this game. Give us the Lions total and some more road chalk here.
BetCrushers Take: Lions -2.5 / Lions Team Total – Over 27.5
Lions 32, Cardinals 24
Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
vs.
Green Bay Packers (1-1) vs. Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Sunday September 22nd
1:00pm
Nissan Stadium – Nashville, TN
Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-115)
Over/Under 38.5 (-110)
The Tennessee Titans find themselves in an 0-2 hole to begin the season, when in reality they could and probably should be sitting at 2-0. Sunday they’ll host a Green Bay Packer team that finds itself being quarterbacked by former Titan draft pick Malik Willis. The castoff QB won his debut as a Packers starter last week and will look to make it two consecutive in a tough road matchup. Will Levis, who indirectly replaced Willis as the starter in Tennessee has been a huge factor in their two losses. The Titans need a win to avoid falling to 0-3, while the Packers are trying to tread water while they await the return of starting quarterback Jordan Love.
Give Malik Willis a lot of credit for playing good football in his first game for Green Bay and making the plays he needed to to win. There weren’t all too many plays needed, as the Packers leaned on a strong running game with Josh Jacobs to power their way to victory against the Colts. That game plan figures to not carry over into week three as they’ll be on the road against one of the better defenses in the league. The interior of the Titans defense is big and physical, and they’ll take aim at a banged up offensive line, and Josh Jacobs. While it looks as though the Packers core may all be able to play, not being 100% against this Titans front is less than ideal. The Titans are going to go into this matchup with one main goal on defense, and that’s to make Malik Willis beat them, and not let Josh Jacobs be the punisher. Without a running game to lean on, Willis may have to run a bit more himself, and on the road he could find himself in some situations where he has to make tough throws. Even though there is a new coaching regime in Tennessee, this team knows overall what the strengths and weaknesses are of Willis, and should have a solid plan to stop him. Titans prize free agent L’Jarius Sneed has gotten off to a bit of a slow start in Tennessee, but he and the secondary for the Titans should be able to put the clamps on the speedy young weapons of the Packers enough make things tough for Willis.
The coaching staff for the Tennessee Titans have to be praying that their young quarterback Will Levis can tone down his wild play and settle in as a franchise player. Levis continues to show signs of being a good quarterback, and the Titans offense has moved the ball decently, but too many mistakes have killed them. Levis really needs to get this figured out quickly if Tennessee wants to turn their season around, and he wants to continue to have a job as a starting quarterback in the league. He has a chance to do this in a semi-favorable matchup against a Packers defense that still remains soft against the run. Tennessee has run the ball fairly well with Tony Pollard, and this is a game where their improved offensive line can feast a bit and control the line of scrimmage. Limiting Levis might be exactly what this offense needs to keep from making big mistakes. Of course Levis will have to throw in this game, and he will also be under some pressure from the edge rushers of the Packers, so can he avoid making the big mistakes? We’ll see, but his receivers have some advantages against what has not looked like a great Green Bay secondary thus far. This seems like a pretty elementary breakdown, and it is, but the Titans offense simply cannot hurt themselves. Play turnover free football, and they probably get a win in this game.
Key Stats and Trends
– The Packers are 2-5 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the Titans
– The Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing as a favorite
One more favorite here, although this one is at least at home. Maybe we’re just gluttons for punishment, but Will Levis has to reign it in at some point right? It sounds wild, but the Titans roster is better than the Packers roster from top to bottom. The difference is the quarterback position, as Jordan Love would obviously make the Packers a better team overall. With Malik Willis in though, if the Titans can get cutoff the running attack of the Pack, we’ll see the reason Tennessee was willing to give up on the young quarterback. Without digging out exact numbers and timelines, there is a pretty big statistic that shows how teams perform in their first game with a backup QB, versus their second start, and the falloff is pretty drastic. LaFleur will have the Pack ready and competitive, but this just feels like a game the Titans finally get figured out.
BetCrushers Take: Tennessee Titans -2.5
Titans 24, Packers 20
Teaser Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns
vs. 
and 
vs. 
San Francisco 49ers (1-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams (0-2)
Sunday September 22nd
4:25pm
SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43 (-110)
New York Giants (0-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Sunday September 22nd
1:00pm
Huntington Bank Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-120)
Over/Under 38 (-110)
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: 49ers -.5 and Browns -.5
The San Francisco 49ers are limping into their contest with an equally beat up LA Rams team on Sunday. Off of a surprising loss, they look to regain their swagger against their divisional foe as heavy road favorites. We are pairing them in a teaser with an inter-conference matchup between the New York Giants and the Cleveland Browns. The Giants are winless as both quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll are feeling a pretty warm seat early in the 2024 season. Things haven’t been spectacular for Deshaun Watson and the Browns either, but they have a chance to stay near the top in a crowded AFC North. Is this the game where the Giants figure some things out, or will the Browns return to a dominant home stadium defense like we saw a season ago?
On paper, the 49ers offense doesn’t look nearly as intimidating entering week three as it did before the season started. Injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and a banged up George Kittle certainly weaken what was the most talented skill position room in the league. (Respect to the Lions, Eagles, Dolphins and a couple others). How much of a downgrade will we really see against the Rams? With Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, Jordan Mason has provided a nice replacement to hold the fort down while McCaffrey is out, and the Niners still have Brandon Aiyuk and a capable JaJuan Jennings at receiver. Kittle should be able to do enough even with his injury, and of course Trent Williams will make sure Brock Purdy’s blindside is protected. This Rams defense is somewhere in the bottom half of the league, and although the injuries to SF will help them, it won’t be enough for them to completely hold them down. On the other side of the ball, the Rams are in pretty big trouble against this Niners defense. The offensive line for the Rams is going to struggle with the physical play of the 49ers front, and that will make a long day for quarterback Matthew Stafford. For the Rams to be at their best, they need to be able to effectively run the ball with Kyren Williams. That’s going to be tough as running lanes have been tough to find behind an offensive line that has two or three guys who really should not be starting in this league right now. Stafford can make a lot of wide receivers look good, but unlike with the 49ers, the dropoff with his skill weapons is massive. Without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, where is the passing offense going to come from? Stafford will be under heavy pressure, and his receivers won’t be able to consistently get open to help him out.
Across the country, the New York Giants are desperately in need of a win against the Cleveland Browns. The Giants offense could also have some troubles against the defense of Cleveland, who was absolutely dominant at home a season ago. The Giants line, save for left tackle Andrew Thomas is not great, and facing a bullying front of the Browns is going to be difficult. Devin Singletary is a serviceable running back, but he’s not going to strike too much fear into the hearts of the Browns. Expect Cleveland to pressure heavy, and force quarterback Daniel Jones to try to beat them. One bright spot for the Giants is rookie Malik Nabers, who is starting to find some rapport with Jones, and looks like he could be a dominant receiver in the league. This is a tough matchup for Nabers however, as the Browns are one of the better teams at limiting number one wideouts. Can the Giants find a way to get guys like Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt the ball if Nabers is negated by the Cleveland defense? This is a tough spot for Daniel Jones, who already has to be lacking some confidence after the beating he’s taken by fans and the local media. The Browns offense isn’t exactly thriving either, although they have something to be optimistic about in this game. They should have their offensive line intact, which they have not had for the first two games of the season. With their starting tackles back, they should be able to hold up against the strength of the Giants defense, which are their edge rushers Kayvon Thibodeaux and Brian Burns. The New York secondary is not very good, so look for Jerry Jeudy to continue to ascend a bit, and this could be the first big game of the year for Amari Cooper. Overall, the Browns offense may not dominate, but they very well may not have to.
Key Stats and Trends
– The 49ers are 9-2 straight up in their last 11 games vs. the Rams
– The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games
– The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against the 49ers
– The Giants are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games
– The Giants are 1-8 straight up in their last 9 road games
– The Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
To be honest, we wanted to bet the 49ers against the spread originally, but slew of injuries, and the respect for Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford scared us off just a bit. It’s really tough to see them not finding a way to win though, as they still have too much talent to take on an equally depleted Rams roster. In the other game, you could also tease the Bengals if you don’t believe in the Browns, but we’re going with a team that should be able to assert their defensive will on defense. You could also consider the under in this game, but for the purposes of our wager, we’re just teasing with the Niners. Come on favorites, just win.
