A telling resolution to yesterday’s question about which way to go in Toronto came down to Luis Castillo extending his troubling start to the season to a third outing. 4 more runs given up and another high BABIP outing helped the Jays snag a much needed win in their home opener. Here’s a quick – and late – MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-9-2024 before we get back on the road. Next up is a Thursday Breakdown from Tennessee before the NASCAR pod posts on Friday. It’s a busy week but the good stuff keeps coming! BOL…
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals (PHI -135, 7.5)
Last night’s wild 9th inning kicked off what looks to be a hard-fought battle between division contenders. The Phillies (5-5) and Cardinals (5-6) have kept themselves in position early in the season with a ton of baseball to go. Philly taking the first game of the three-game set puts a little pressure on the Cards to avoid the sweep. But motivation isn’t a part of my regular season handicapping process. It’s all about the numbers, and game two is one of the more intriguing matchups on the slate.
The Redbirds’ offensive woes have eased up some after leaving Los Angeles. Yet their production is still choppy in the sense that a low average (.217) and mid-pack slugging (.374) over the trailing 7-day period has produced a bottom-half 24 runs. The .261 BABIP has something to do with this relative lack of production. Philadelphia doesn’t have much more to say on the matter either. In the same period, they’ve slashed .239/320/.398 with just 26 runs to show for it. The Phils haven’t had success through the BABIP lens yet either.
It’s been the Bryce Harper & Brandon Marsh show for the most part with Philly. Those two plus the JT Realmuto/Garrett Stubbs catching tandem have carried the load against right-handed pitching. But the lineup as a whole finds itself near the bottom of the league in effectiveness against righties (.198/.284/.350). Of course, so do the Cardinals (.229/.285/.352). Their backstop pair of Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera have fueled the fire against righties much like Philly’s duo with little support elsewhere except for Masyn Winn and left-handed leadoff man Brendan Donovan. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras is expected to return to the lineup this evening.
Living Up To Expectation
You’ll be hard pressed to find either lineup hanging in the bottom half of the rankings at the end of May. Philly’s success against southpaw pitching is right on par with my expectations. The other side of the split, not so much. Another 20-30% of upside awaits this talented lineup once they kick the low-BABIP can out of the way. Similarly, the Cardinals have 20-30% upside overall and against right-handers; slightly less against lefties though. Aging key hitters Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have a lot to do with the offense’s success moving forward. But I’ll continue to argue my point from the divisional preview that the ceiling for those two is limited this season. Compared to where they stand at the moment, however, there is plenty of room before they reach those modest expectations.
Z Wheeler (R) vs. S Gray (R)
The most pressing issue for the lineups is the quality of starting pitchers facing them. Exhibit A is Philadelphia’s ace Zack Wheeler. He yielded just one earned run across two 6-inning starts for a 0.75 ERA and 1.24 FIP/2.19 xFIP. Yeah, the dude is legit. What should make Cardinals manager Oli Marmol nervous is the 10 strikeouts Wheeler posted in his last time out against the Reds. Cincy holds a 30.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching with St. Louis not too far behind at 26.9%. That meshes nicely with Wheeler’s strikeout profile right around the 27% mark for those who dabble in K props (low market price of over 6.5 -115 at FanDuel). This number looks just right to my less-qualified eye though.
Much like Seattle/Toronto yesterday, it’s a who blinks first situation. As good as Zack Wheeler is, he’s operating ahead of schedule. 31.3% strikeout rate, 18.7% swinging strike rate, and .258 BABIP ask for an opposing lineup to help him get back toward expectation. Does St. Louis have what it takes to send Wheeler down the path of regression today?
Short and Sweet?
Opposing starter Sonny Gray makes his delayed season debut due to a hamstring injury suffered in Spring Training. Word is Gray is on a pitch count of 65, exchanging his sub-4.00 effectiveness for a bullpen that has managed to produce on that same wavelength to date (4.06 ERA, 3.87 FIP/3.55 xFIP). Outs props are absent for Gray due to this restriction and his 4.5 strikeouts prop is heavily juiced to the under. Again, my amateur prop evaluation finds this to be tough to bet into without a ton of insight.
Both bullpens have run well for the most part – last night’s 9th inning meltdowns by Jeff Hoffman and Ryan Helsley notwithstanding. Phillies manager Rob Thomson could go back to the well with one or two of Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, and closer Jose Alvarado in a close one plus a rested bulk half. An assumption for 6 innings from Wheeler lessens this burden significantly though. No availability issues weigh down the Cards’ bullpen effectiveness as nobody was particularly overworked last night. Plus nobody entered into back-to-back games either. There’s a way to attack this game. I just haven’t found it quite yet. BOL and catch you all Thursday morning.
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