Previous Week Plays – 3-2
Season Record – 48-43-1

Previous Week Props – 5-4
Season Record Props – 79-50

Wild Card Recap:

Wild Card weekend offered some so-so games in terms of excitement overall, which is why the league needs sports betting. There was plenty of sweat with our wagers as we squeaked out the slightest profit going 3-2 with our posted plays and 5-4 with our posted player prop bets. We were on the right track it seemed with some of our other bets, they just couldn’t get to the finish line. Things started out nicely as we had the over in the Browns/Texans game which sailed over with the Texans in particular scoring freely all game. We split the props with the Browns as David Njoku cashed his yardage early, however Joe Flacco was only able to toss one TD pass and missed his over 1.5 touchdown prop. Always a shame when the receiver gets tackled at the one yard of what would have been another TD pass, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. Like many, we were on the under in the Chiefs and Dolphins game with weather concerns, and with the Dolphins unable to generate offense, that was never really threatened. Same goes for Tua Tagovailoa’s yardage total under that paralleled the game wager. We lost however with Rashee Rice, as the Dolphins had no answer for the talented rookie no matter where he lined up. We opted to take the solid seven points with the Packers, expecting a close game, and we got anything but a nail-biter. However, it was the Packers as we all watched, decimate the Cowboys for a no-sweat cover. We went 2-1 with props in that game cashing with Dak Prescott’s yardage over, and Aaron Jones yardage over, but lost with Rico Dowdle’s yardage over. It looked like in mop up time he might get it, but the Cowboys played until the final whistle and he fell just shy. Somehow we lost the over in the Lions and Rams contest, a game that looked like it was going to get into the 60’s with ease. The Lions stalled out in the second half and it became a defensive conservative battle however and never got there. We did once again lean on Amon-Ra St. Brown for a player prop yardage cash though. The final game of the weekend was a double whammy as we lost both the over in the Eagles and Buccaneers game, as well as Jalen Hurts rushing attempts prop. The Bucs handled their business scoring, but the Eagles could not sustain offense with a poor game plan and minus A.J. Brown. Could have been better, but overall, not a terrible weekend. Time to look ahead.

Divisional Round Preview:

The elite eight is upon us as many believe this is the best weekend of quality football that we will see all season. There’s a few surprises entering the weekend, and some mainstays from recent seasons including some rematches. In the AFC we’re perhaps seeing the four best quarterbacks in the conference, and in the NFC some of the more surprising quarterbacks in their respective bracket. Weather will be “football-like”, and there are no lack of storylines in any of the games. There are some interesting spreads, and the books appear to be strategically pricing some teams. Buckle up, it’s going to be an intense weekend of football. If you want to skip ahead and just see our bets for the weekend, scroll to the bottom.

AFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

vs.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-110)

The top seeded Baltimore Ravens will play host to the upstart Houston Texans to kick off the divisional round at M&T Stadium. Houston is coming off of a statement win against the Browns and hoping to carry that momentum against a team that is very well rested after essentially a two week break. Will the Ravens have any rust to shake off, or can they pick up where they left off during the season and end the Cinderella run of the Texans?

THE HOUSTON TEXANS ON OFFENSE:

We’re going to go ahead and admit early on we were wrong on the Texans drafting C.J. Stroud this year as we really felt he’d be another in a line of unimpressive Ohio State quarterbacks. Stroud is not only the most impressive rookie this year, he’s putting together one of the most impressive rookie quarterback seasons we’ve ever seen. He’ll face arguably the biggest test of his career when he takes on a Ravens defense that ranks #1 in DVOA, and several other metrics. These teams met in week one of the season and Stroud didn’t look great, but that probably should be chalked up more to making a first career start than anything else. Stroud is absolutely going to need to be on his game for the Texans to pull off a huge upset, but it’s actually Devin Singletary who is a huge key for the offense on Saturday. The Ravens are not great at stopping the run as their aggressiveness and scheme are geared more to funneling teams into the run. Since assuming the start job earlier this season, Singletary has run well and given the Texans the ability to run anything in the playbook. Houston wants to control the line of scrimmage and keep the Ravens offense on the sidelines, as that gives them a great chance at winning. Controlling the line of scrimmage against the Ravens is not an easy thing to do despite their tendencies to neglect run defense a bit. The Ravens defensive line is one of the biggest and most physical in the league, and it’s going to be bloody in the trenches on this side of the ball. If Houston does find early success running the ball, it could open things up down the field, and if they don’t, it could get ugly fast. The Ravens are without veteran cornerback Marlon Humphrey which does weaken them a bit in the secondary, but they still have enough horses and a great zone schemes to force Stroud into some mistakes. The Texans have done better than any team in the league at protecting the football, but doing that against this Ravens defense could prove much tougher than it did during the regular season. The Ravens have some big names on their defense, but the player to really watch is former first pick of the Texans, Jadeveon Clowney. The Powerful edge player has had a resurgence in this Baltimore defense, and as a player that may have been a bit of an afterthought entering the season, he will play a vital role in this game. When the Texans throw, it won’t be quite as easy as it was against the Browns a week ago. The Ravens are good at containing opposing tight ends, so Dalton Schultz should be somewhat neutralized, and if Nico Collins is seeing heavy coverage, who is going to step up? We’ve seen small flashes from Noah Brown, and John Metchie, but will that be enough to overcome this defense?

THE BALTIMORE RAVENS ON OFFENSE:

Things may not be easy for the Ravens when they’re on offense either, as the Texans defense has overperformed really all season. That’s probably because they’re better than everyone thought they’d be entering the year. Baltimore has fresh legs, which is ideal when you’re a running team, but there will always be the question of whether or not it takes a bit to get warmed up after the bye week plus week eighteen? They’re a veteran squad led by a veteran quarterback, so there shouldn’t be too much of a lag, yet it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on. The reason it may not be simple for the Ravens to just get up and go is they really are an offense that runs first, to set up the pass. Whether that’s running backs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, or Lamar Jackson, one of the reasons Lamar is able to make some effortless throws down the field is the attention that is given to the ground game. The Texans though have prided themselves on being physical against the run under head coach Demeco Ryans and they rank third in the league at that task and allow a stingy three and a half yards per carry. Without having to potentially add assistance to the run, they can spy Lamar Jackson, and keep an eye on Zay Flowers and the receiving corp. Odell Beckham, Jr. stated he was brought in for the big games and playoffs, so let’s see if his stronger play to wind down the season can continue in the playoffs. The Texans secondary has struggled at times, but generally only against true number one receivers. No slight on the Ravens bunch, as they have several capable receivers, but they don’t really boast that top 10 kind of wideout threat. One thing that will help the Ravens is the return of tight end Mark Andrews, who originally was thought to be done for the season, but bounced back and has practiced all week for a return. With Andrews and Isaiah Likely in the mix at tight end, that position could really be the one that damages the Texans defense. Their safeties, particularly Jalen Pitre are aggressive playmakers, but they’ve given up big plays at times. Houston has found a nice pass rush mainly behind Johnathan Greenard and rookie Will Anderson, Jr., but it may be more about staying disciplined and not letting Lamar Jackson get out of the pocket that could determine how successful they ultimately are. The Texans linebackers are athletic, the question will be are they athletic enough to slow down Jackson?

KEY STATS:
– The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
– The Texans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games
– The Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
– The Ravens are 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games vs. the Texans

THE SKINNY:
We’ve doubted the Texans plenty this season and they just keep finding ways to impress. We see this a lot in the NCAA basketball tournament, where these fun stories eventually come to an end when the big boys get involved. The Texans certainly could play with and beat the Ravens, but we’re not counting on that. With some cold weather in Baltimore, C.J. Stroud may look a little more like a rookie against this very good defense. Unless they can find a way to create turnovers to where the Ravens allow them to hang around, the Texans are simply overmatched. Houston will be a force to be reckoned with for many years to come behind Demeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, but the house money they’re playing with here in the divisional round is about to go back to the houst.

BetCrushers Lean: Baltimore Ravens -9.5
Baltimore Ravens 31, Houston Texans 17

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME ONE

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

vs.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
San Francisco 49ers -10 (-110)
Over/Under 50.5 (-110)

A similar scenario in San Francisco where the 49ers will take on the Green Bay Packers who are also coming off of a blowout victory against the Cowboys. San Francisco has looked like the class of the NFC all season, but face a Packers squad that is playing as well as any team in the league over the last month of the season. A rivalry that dates back to the 1990’s should provide some scoring and excitement if these teams hold true to form.

THE GREEN BAY PACKERS ON OFFENSE:

The biggest thing you need to know about the Green Bay Packers offense, is they are absolutely rolling right now. We’ll finish the conversation with Jordan Love, however we want to start with their offensive line. This unit has come together and proven to be one of the best in the league, both in run blocking and pass protection. Speaking of running, the Packers have been doing quite a bit of that since Aaron Jones returned to the lineup and has been healthy. Part of the reason Jones has been successful, other than being healthy and having rested legs, is the Packers have gotten off to nice starts and early leads. Matt LaFleur has opted to take the ball when winning the toss, something most coaches don’t do, but it’s worked out well for them. When they get out early, it allows them to really lean on Jones, and he’ll no doubt be a big piece of the Green Bay game plan on Saturday. The 49ers are solid stopping the run, and the defense should be prepared for the zone scheme blocking the Packers like to do as their offenses are similar in that respect. Jones will be visible, but if the Packers are going to win this one, it will have to continue to be the Jordan Love show. All Love has done down the stretch is throw for touchdowns, yards and not turn the ball over. Easier said than done against the Niners defense on the road, but not impossible. The 49ers defensive line will test this solid line of the Packers, and although Love has done well against the blitz and pressure, he is human. If San Francisco can get to him early, the poise and smoothness we’ve watched him play with could disappear really quickly. That’s another reason why it’s important for Green Bay to get out early in this one, so they can stay balanced and slow the rush of the 49ers down. When all four starters on their defensive line are healthy and in at the same time, (Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa) they generate pressure on a ridiculous 67% of dropbacks. Armstead enters the game questionable, so we’ll see if he can go and be the force needed for this defense to attack Love. As far as the receivers go, the Packers don’t really have a WR1, they mix it up primarily between their two rookie receivers and two second year receivers, as Christian Watson finally returned a week ago. Someone in that group needs to step again, as Romeo Doubs did early a week ago. San Francisco is good at stopping opposing tight ends so don’t expect a lot of support from Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave. You never want to make too much out of one football game, but this will be a pretty ultimate test for Jordan Love to see how be plays on the big stage against a top-tier opponent. He looked unstoppable just one week ago. Do the Packers have another legendary signal-caller yet again, or was the last couple of months merely a nice hot streak for a new player?

THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ers ON OFFENSE:

Kyle Shanahan having a little extra time to play around with a game plan is a scary thing for any opponent and we’re expecting to see the usual dominance with his planning. As we mentioned on the other side of the ball though, the Packers also have an idea of what the 49ers want to do, which could at least slow them down a little bit. Green Bay has really stepped up their defense over the last handful of weeks as they went from near the bottom of the league in defensive DVOA to playing near the top of late. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly how or what has caused this, but they’ve tightened up against the run and gotten a stronger pass rush. The 49ers have basically run pretty well against every opponent they’ve faced, so there’s really not much slowing down when you involve Christian McCaffrey, who should be a full-go. Where McCaffrey may be most potent in this game is as a pass catcher, something else he’s proven he’s also elite with throughout his career. Don’t be shocked if this is one of those games where McCaffrey has as many yards through the air as he does on the ground. (He could have plenty of both). Shanahan is not shy about working McCaffrey heavily in big spots, and despite having several other stars, he leans on the stud RB when he needs good things to happen. Much like with Jordan Love, this is a spotlight kind of game for quarterback Brock Purdy as well. Regardless of how much emphasis goes to McCaffrey, he’s going to need to make some plays if this team wants to win this game and the Super Bowl. He struggled in his one big-time matchup against the Ravens, and it was largely due to disguise and pressure. The Packers don’t necessarily disguise well, and even though they’ve done better of late, they’re not exactly elite at rushing opposing quarterbacks. The game plan is probably going to be some quick throws from Purdy, allowing Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to make some plays for the offense. Brandon Aiyuk will see a lot of Jaire Alexander, but look for the Packers to play more zone to limit the big plays against the offense. The Packers have one of the more athletic, but smaller back sevens in the league, let’s see if they can be physical enough to hang with the punches the 49ers throw at them.

KEY STATS:
– The Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
– The total has gone over in 7 of the last 8 games for the Packers
– The total has gone over in 6 straight road games for the Packers
– The 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
– The total has gone over in 5 of the last 7 games for the 49ers
– The total has gone over in 9 of the last 12 games between the Packers and 49ers

As long as this Niner gang is healthy we’re rolling with them all the way through the Super Bowl. However, this spread seems just a tick too high with how well Green Bay has been playing. The 49ers should have their way on offense against what has been an overachieving defense lately, but Jordan Love and Aaron Jones could make this game at least competitive, if not find a way to win. The key for the Packers is to not fall behind early. Stay two-dimensional on offense and start to believe that you can win the game. Easier said than done. Christian McCaffrey is going to touch the ball a lot in this game, and that will more often than not lead to really good results for this San Francisco offense. Green Bay will go down swinging for sure, but upsetting that Cowboys team is not even close to the same task as beating up on the 49ers. Hoping for a fun game here, and a lot of points.

BetCrushers Lean: Green Bay Packers +10
San Francisco 49ers 32, Green Bay Packers 24

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

vs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Detroit Lions -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under 49 (-110)

The underdogs in the NFC leave Tampa and head to the Motor City to take on the Lions, who won their first playoff game in 31 years on Wild Card Weekend. Many expected the Lions to still be playing meaningful football despite the playoff drought, however very few people expected and NFC South team, and specifically the Buccaneers to still be alive for the divisional round when the season began. Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff have both had some ups and downs in their careers, and one will find themselves leading their team in the conference championship.

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ON OFFENSE:

It’s pretty remarkable a season after taking over as the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers that Baker Mayfield finished with very similar numbers to Tom Brady from the year prior. The doubters will get to watch Mayfield with a chance to continue this unexpected run against the Lions, a team he faced earlier in the season. The Bucs are hot at the moment, as their defense has looked strong recently, and Mayfield carved up the Eagles in the Wild Card round. Mayfield is going to have to carry the load for the Buccaneers offense as it is a mismatch on the ground. Tampa has been the worst running team in the league for two straight seasons, while the Lions run defense has been really good, especially at home. Don’t expect Rachaad White to contribute much on handoffs, although he could be a factor catching passes, something he is capable of doing. Ultimately, this is about Baker Mayfield and the passing game of the Buccaneers, as they can and should find success throwing the football. It starts with pass protection of course, and the Lions do have the homefield advantage, where they’ve also been better rushing opposing quarterbacks. Mayfield is a competitor and will hang in the pocket to give his receivers a chance, so let’s see if those fractions of seconds go the way of Tampa or Detroit against Aidan Hutchinson and company. The Lions secondary continues to struggle against top talent, as they allowed Puka Nacua to go off last week, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are veteran players capable of exploiting mistakes. After what was a really subpar performance from Evans, a bounceback is likely for the physical receiver. Perhaps the best news for the Bucs is the emergence of other weapons besides Evans and Godwin as Trey Palmer and David Moore both have flashed of late. Mayfield having trust in others, allows the entire field to stay open, if he has the time to throw. Tight end Cade Otton has also stepped up, although Detroit has done a nice job defending tight ends this season. The big question for Tampa’s offense is can Baker Mayfield ball out and go toe-to-toe with the Lions offense? This isn’t the type of matchup where being a game manager and not turning the ball over will be good enough to win. Points are needed, and that’s got to come from the passing game.

THE DETROIT LIONS ON OFFENSE:

The game plan for the Lions doesn’t change much, and it probably won’t again this weekend as they’ll look to go on the attack early and often. This will be a physical matchup up front between the Lions offensive line and the front seven of the Bucs. Tampa has been good against the run, as usual behind Todd Bowles, but the Lions could find some success on the edges. David Montgomery always gets his totes, but this needs to be a Jahmyr Gibbs show, as he has the speed to get outside and make the explosive plays. The Lions had success in their first matchup throwing, so one would figure they’ll stick with that plan again, as the Buccaneers secondary has certainly been vulnerable this year. They’ve played better down the stretch, but with the emergence of Jameson Williams, and the fortunate health of Sam LaPorta, it’s tough to cover everyone if you’re focused on Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown lines up primarily in the slot, which is good in this matchup as he will avoid Carlton Davis, who has consistently been the best cover player for Tampa. The advantage the Lions have on paper here is they should be able to both protect Jared Goff and have a good idea of what is headed their way. Goff has proven to be one of the top QBs in the league when he has time and knows where he wants to go with the ball. Todd Bowles doesn’t do a lot of disguising, as he pretty much brings four or five guys on every play. Unless Tampa can really ramp up their pressure, Goff should have a game like he did the first time these teams played. There are a couple of areas the Lions need to really focus on to score in this game. First, protecting the football. Jared Goff has been really good this year, but he has had some games where he’s been a little careless with the football. When you’re a home favorite, protecting the ball is the number one thing you can do to win. The other piece of the puzzle for the Lions is red zone performance. That’s always a key in the NFL, but particularly for a Lions team that goes for it nearly all the time on 4th down in that part of the field. Where other teams sometimes get at least three points out of red zone stalls, the Lions can often be shutout. They need to score touchdowns.

KEY STATS:
– The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Buccaneers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games
– The Lions are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Lions are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 home games

The Lions are on upset alert here, but they really should be able to win this football game. As stated above, it’s really pretty simple. Take care of the football and you’re on your way to the NFC Championship game. The Bucs have proven they can play with the better teams in the league, but they can’t out-physical and outcoach the Lions the same way they were able to do the Eagles on Monday. It doesn’t help they have to travel and have one less day to prep for an offensive scheme that likes to add some wrinkles in. If we had to bet this one, the 6.5 seems like a pretty juicy number, but because the Lions can light up the scoreboard when they’re “on” and performing in the red zone, we’re opting for some points and the Lions to win a teaser bet as you’ll see below. After what looked like a sure over last week, let’s see if the Lions can rack up those points and if the Bucs can keep up pace.

BetCrushers Lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5
Detroit Lions 29, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

NFC DIVISIONAL GAME TWO

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

vs.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium – Buffalo, NY
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)

The NFL weekend will wrap up with one of their new marquee rivalries in the AFC between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have split their head to head meetings with a 3-3 mark, but it’s Mahomes Chiefs who have had the more important success in the playoffs knocking the Bills out twice in the last three seasons. Is this the year the Bills get beyond their old foes, or will Kansas City provide more heartbreak to Bills Mafia?

THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS ON OFFENSE:

Don’t look now but the Kansas City Chiefs seem to be finding some rhythm on the offensive side of the ball. That’s bad news for the rest of the league, who may have believed the Chiefs offense would hold them back in the playoffs after a very mediocre stretch during the middle part of the season. The Chiefs have simplified things a bit, relying on their new big three, which is running back Isaiah Pacheco, rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, and of course tight end Travis Kelce. That will be the case again Sunday night, as they’ll live and die with their top playmakers. Isaiah Pacheco continues to be productive as a runner, and head coach Andy Reid has stayed patient with the ground game. The Bills are susceptible to the run as they will be focused on stopping Patrick Mahomes. They’ll hope their front can hold up enough to allow them to play their shell coverage and make the Chiefs earn what they get down the field. With Daquan Jones back at defensive tackle playing next to Pro Bowl snub Ed Oliver, the matchup on the interior against the Chiefs is going to be as good as you’ll see across the league. Pacheco is known as an “inside” runner, but he has plenty of quickness to get outside. His best runs will come outside of the tackles, or on plays where the edge players for the Bills lose containment. The big story other than of course Patrick Mahomes is who will be lining up for the Bills on defense? The team was without seven of their top players to finish the Steelers game, and that’s not ideal when facing Mahomes. They should get cornerback Rasul Douglas and linebacker Tyrel Dodson back, but it’s possible they’ll be without their slot corner Taron Johnson, and their top linebacker Terrel Bernard. Johnson is big in support of the run game and has experience working against Travis Kelce. Without Bernard in the lineup, the Bills may be forced to go with A.J. Klein as their defensive signal-caller as backup Baylon Spector will most likely also miss the game. Another quiet injury that will impact them in this game is not having Taylor Rapp at the safety position. Rapp allows the Bills to utilize Jordan Poyer in the box, which would be huge being down starting linebackers. Buffalo will need to beat the tackles of the Chiefs with their rushers consistently, and look to turn over Mahomes, or at least force some punts. Watch for Mahomes to tuck and run as he always does in big games.

THE BUFFALO BILLS ON OFFENSE:

The Bills offense has been solid since the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, but they actually have taken a step backwards metrically speaking. The creativity is lacking a bit, and they often go through some inconsistent spells. We know they can light things up when they’re clicking, but will they be able to click against a very good Chiefs defense? They’ll take the field without starting wideout Gabriel Davis, who Chiefs fans will be thrilled to see on the sideline after some of his performances. That results in the Bills using more 12 man personnel, with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the field at the same time. These two players could be the most important complimentary weapons on the field for quarterback Josh Allen. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has struggled against the Chiefs defense and will see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed, who is playing phenomenally. All-Pro Cornerback Trent McDuffie will probably see a lot of Khalil Shakir, and with Allen not wanting to turn the ball over, he will be forced to feed Kincaid, Knox and James Cook out of the backfield. Cook also needs to be a factor running, as the Chiefs can be exploited on the ground. Much of the Bills winning streak was on the legs of Cook, and when Cook is moving the chains, it keeps Mahomes off the field and the ball from being turned over. These teams know each other pretty well, so a lot of what we’re going to see is who wants it more, and who is better in individual matchups. One really important note involves the Bills special teams as punter Sam Martin injured his hamstring in their win against the Steelers. Martin had been playing his best football and perhaps even more importantly is the holder for kicker Tyler Bass. Without Martin as the holder, Bass missed a chip shot field goal badly. In what is expected to be a close game, the kicking game absolutely matters, and there is no guarantee the Bills can conduct the fundamentals of special teams as we’d normally expect.

KEY STATS:
– The Chiefs are 10-2 straight up in their last 12 road games
– The total has stayed under in 5 of the last 6 games for the Chiefs
– The Bills are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
– The Bills have won 6 games in a row straight up

The finale of the divisional round is going to be a really close football game, as all of these contests between the Chiefs and Bills have been in the Mahomes-Allen era. Don’t expect the fireworks we got two years ago as this one will be a little more defensively oriented. These teams have a lot of similarities, which is why they’re both good and seem to always be facing each other in the playoffs. The reality is this is just a bad spot for the Bills despite holding the homefield advantage. In a game that will be close at this time of the year, it’s often the healthier and luckier team that has the true advantage. The Chiefs enter the game with all of their core pieces in place and a mostly healthy roster. Buffalo on the other hand is missing some absolutely crucial players on both sides of the ball, but mostly on defense. With the Chiefs finding their stride seemingly at the right time, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will be able to attack the weak spots and backup players on the defense. They also have a two day rest advantage which you can’t underestimate at this stage of the year when players are tired and banged up. We didn’t touch on it above, but we’re absolutely adding a couple of really controversial items into our handicap, whether or not it tears away credibility with our wager. First, Shawn Hochuli is the head official for this game, the Bills are 1-3 in contests reffed by him over the past two seasons. In those four games, they’ve averaged 10 penalties and nearly 90 penalty yards per game. Remember that game earlier this year in Philadelphia where the Bills had 10 penalties in the first half and the Eagles had zero? That was the horse-collar tackle on Allen, and he was the one who got the penalty game for reference. Whether or not this is coincidence, or if there is something there, we’re not discounting it. And lastly, as much as we may take heat for this, the NFL would murder to get Taylor Swift to the Super Bowl and that’s a fact. Again, these are two teams that will play a close game. Those external factors mentioned will be the difference between one team advancing and one having their season end again.

BetCrushers Lean: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs 22, Buffalo Bills 20

WHAT WE ARE PLAYING: