PREVIOUS WEEK RESULTS:
1-7
SEASON RESULTS:
40-36
Week 11 Recap:
To say that we were disappointed in how our player prop bets turned out in week eleven would be a pretty severe understatement. We were downright angry with how things played out, ending up in a disgusting 1-7 result for the week. There’s no use in complaining, but man sometimes luck is on your side, and sometimes it just isn’t Let’s get our one win out of the way, and that was Brock Purdy tossing over 1.5 touchdowns as he was great again last week. Now for the not so fun part. Terry McLaurin had 43 yards early in the third quarter against the Giants and seemed like he was well on his way to eclipsing a low total, only to not snag another pass the rest of the game. The same can be said for Dalton Kincaid who had 46 of his needed 48.5 yards in the first quarter of their game with the Jets. He also did not catch a pass the rest of the way. Both of those were frustrating, but not as frustrating as the under on Justin Herbert’s yardage of 259.5. It looked as though the Packers were going to close out the Chargers, yet they gave LA the ball back and Herbert finished on 260, just a half hard beyond his total. Speaking of losing by the hook, how about another, as T.J. Hockenson ended their game with the Broncos with 55 yards, towards a 55.5 total he needed to break. Throw in Josh Allen falling a few short on his rushing total and Sam LaPorta having his worst game of the season and this is the recipe for disaster. It was dreadful having to even recap this mess.
Week 12 Preview:
We had a couple of props posted with our Thanksgiving plays and were able to get off to a nice 2-0 start hitting both the over with David Montgomery’s rushing yards and the Cowboys sack prop. In addition to that, we’ve got six bets lined up for this Sunday. We’ve got some Ohio State quarterbacks, some proven veterans, and some young talent all with a lot to prove. It’s always nice to get a hot start to the weekend, but we really need a bounceback with these bets below to get back on track with our player props.
Our Picks:
C.J. Stroud – Over 271.5 Yards Passing (-115)
The Jacksonville Jaguars boast one of the more underrated and better defenses in the National Football League. Right now, however, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is just playing at another level. Stroud has topped 330 yards passing for three straight games and has gone over 300 yards in every home game with the exception of one. He played the Jaguars earlier this season and threw for 280 in a game where he would have actually had more yards had the Texans not been so far ahead in the second half. The Jags defense is good, however it’s best against the run. Things will be a little tougher for Devin Singletary on the ground after a pair of big games, meaning Stroud is going to have to throw the ball to move it. For the first time in a month he has basically all of his receiving weapons healthy and at his disposal. It’s crazy to just “expect” a rookie QB to go over 271.5 yards, but this feels way too low as we think 300+ is in the cards yet again. Let’s back the young QB and see if he can keep it rolling.
Rachaad White – Over 27.5 Yards Receiving (-115)
If you’ve watched the Tampa Bay offense this season you’ve noticed it continues to be a bit of a struggle for them to run the football. What you may not have noticed is running back Rachaad White manages to secure some decent numbers out of the backfield simply by the amount of sheer volume he gets at the position. In particular, he’s been more active in the passing game as he’s averaged over 5 targets per game since week seven and has put up some nice receiving yardage games including going for at least 46 yards in four of his last five. His receiving total this week is set at 27.5 which is far too low based on the change in his usage. The Colts defense is decent against the run so there’s little reason to believe Tampa won’t continue to try to work White more into the passing game to get him going. In what could be one of the higher scoring games of the weekend, we’ll look for White to make some plays in the passing game again.
Jaylen Warren – Over 47.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense for all intents and purposes has been a disappointing disaster this season. In an effort to shake things up, they relieved Matt Canada as his duties as offensive coordinator heading into their contest this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. The one positive you could point to with this offense is the emergence of running back Jaylen Warren who has been a bright spot with his burst and tough running. After beginning the season as a slight change of pace runner, Warren has essentially unseated Najee Harris as the number one back grabbing over 50% of the snap share in recent weeks. He’s in a timeshare with Harris, but he generally needs a lot less volume to accrue his yardage. Each runner enters the game needing 47.5 yards however Warren is in much better shape to achieve this. With a new offensive coordinator in what should be a physical divisional game, there should be a lot of work on the ground for everyone involved. The Bengals are surrendering over 5 yards per carry to opposing runners, ranking 31st in the league, only ahead of the Broncos. With his last three performances producing 88, 101, and 129 yards, respectively, needing Warren to get into the high 40’s seems like a great opportunity.
Stefon Diggs – Over 74.5 Yards Receiving (-105)
After one of the hottest starts to the season, Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs is coming off of his two lowest totals of the season with just 34 and 27 yards versus the Broncos and Jets. That wasn’t completely unexpected as quarterback Josh Allen wasn’t going to to take too many chances against Patrick Surtain II and Sauce Gardner with a lot of man and double coverage. This weekend Diggs faces some other talented corners in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, except these two may not be playing at their normal Pro Bowl caliber level. In fact they’re both ranked in the bottom half of starting corners across the league. More importantly than this, the Eagles have struggled to find a good slot corner replacement since the loss of Avonte Maddox. Diggs has lined up more in the slot this season than in previous years and should be able to beat whoever is lined up across from him in the slot. Additionally, the Eagles play as much cover three zone as any team in the league, which can generally be beaten by veteran quarterbacks and receivers. Diggs has special ability to find the soft spot in zones and after a couple of games where he wasn’t a huge part of the game plan, he should be the focal point again on Sunday. The Bills offensive line could struggle running the ball against the Eagles defense, which makes Diggs an extension of the running game as well. In a game where Buffalo knows they’ll need to score some points, Diggs will have to be involved.
Derrick Henry – Over 69.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
With the Tennessee Titans struggling, and particularly the offensive side of the ball, we don’t hear a whole lot about Derrick Henry these days. Despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league and without a lot of passing success, Henry is still putting together an overall decent season averaging over 4.2 yards per carry and rushing for almost 700 yards thus far. He’s struggled the last two weeks, but that’s from facing two of the better run defenses in the league and falling behind early. This weekend he gets a crack at the Carolina Panthers, a team with a feisty defense, but much tougher to throw on than to run on. The Titans need to lean on Henry, and this is undoubtedly a game where they’d like to get the big back at least 20 carries. With the Panthers unlikely to jump out to a heavy early lead, the running game should be in play for all four quarters. For a running back who routinely had his rushing yardage mark set in the 90’s, we’ll look at this as a good value proposition and pick our spot here with Henry.
Justin Fields – Over 51.5 Yards Rushing (-115)
The Chicago Bears aren’t making the playoffs in 2023, but quarterback Justin Fields is still under some pressure in his matchup with the Vikings. With what is shaping up as multiple top five picks in the upcoming draft and some highly ranked QB prospects, we could be watching Fields in a virtual audition for his job to remain as the team’s quarterback of the future. And if the Bears do decide to move on, he’ll undoubtedly be putting his skills on display for another team. As far as his skills go, it’s very debatable on how great those are as far as throwing the football, but we know he can run it. Fields returned after a month plus absence and wasted little time showcasing his running abilities racking up 104 yards on 18 carries in their loss against the Lions. With the bright lights on him, Fields should be primed to tuck and run yet again when they face a tough Vikings defense. When Fields faced Minnesota earlier this year he had 46 yards rushing early in the third quarter before departing the game with his injury. Even though the Vikings defense is tough against the run, they’re most stout on the interior of their defense. It’s possible they will slow down the running backs of the Bears, but Fields should have some opportunities against an aggressive defense at breaking some big runs. Look for both Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs and Fields to be running a lot in this Monday Night Football matchup.
