Turns out it was the Twins bullpen that blinked last night. Credit is due to both Tyler Mahle and Trevor Williams for sharp pitching performances at a cold Target Field. Griffin Jax, well, not so much. After a give some-take some kind of night including a cancelled under ticket in Cleveland, it’s time for another solo shot in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-22-2023. BOL!
2023 Featured Handicap Results
NEW YORK METS @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (SFG -120, 8.5)
Despite one setback after another in the rotation, the Mets continue to grind away and keep pace with Atlanta in the NL East. Verlander, Carrasco, Quintana, and now Scherzer out of commission has not stopped this club from posting their 14th win of the season last night. The lineup is in a groove for the most part, though the threat of rest days for key players is a concern this afternoon after not having a day off since embarking on their 10-day West Coast swing. Facing lefties or righties really has not mattered to the Mets on this current run – except for that guy in L.A. named Clayton Kershaw. All that being said, the New York lineup is producing right in line with my expectations.
I can make a similar statement about the Giants’ offense in general. However, their wide handedness splits gap has been more extreme than where I’m at. Devaluing these early season results makes my handicap more favorable to San Francisco, especially with a left-handed pitcher on the mound this afternoon. Their struggles against southpaws came to light again last night against Joey Lucchesi. Saying that the Mets’ offense is in a position to outpace the Giants by 10%+ is on the conservative side. That’s with key players Pete Alonso, Frankie Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, etc. all in the lineup though. So the reality is much closer to the 10% mark. Throw in a firm defensive edge for New York and I am comfortable with their position player corps standing above San Francisco’s.
D Peterson (L) vs. L Webb (R)
If there’s any logical reason for the Giants to be favored in this contest, it is ace Logan Webb. Sure, the 26-year-old righty’s season has not gotten off to a scorching hot start. As we know, 23.2 innings does not paint the complete picture. Webb’s underlying numbers support the top-tier valuation that has made the Giants a favorite. New York’s David Peterson stands on a rung or two below Logan, though both share my sentiment of being better than their face values.
NYM vs. SFG Starting Pitcher Comparison
| ERA | FIP | xFIP | GB% | HH% | K% | BB% | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterson | 6.10 | 5.52 | 3.58 | 51.7% | 35.5% | 23.9% | 8.7% | .368 |
| Webb | 4.94 | 4.23 | 2.60 | 56.9% | 46.2% | 28.9% | 3.1% | .350 |
Much of these season-to-date metrics points to Webb holding a 1 run or greater edge over Peterson. Maybe it’s foolish of me but I’m sticking to a 1/4 – 1 run to FIP spread in favor of the more accomplished Logan Webb without respect to opponent. Both pitchers continue to pound hitters into the ground, though the hard contact issue with Webb is a concern given how every start has produced 38.9% or higher hard contact. But that .350 BABIP has to come back down toward the .300 mark and that transition could begin as early as today.
Peterson has not been immune to an abundance of unfavorable results either per his .368 BABIP. So a similar case for positive regression can be made for the Mets’ fourth year pitcher. And with both being ground ball-centric, the nice temps and steady wind out to center are less of a concern than with pitchers who are prone to hard fly ball contact. So what am I trying to say here? Expect both pitchers to be effective – at least more effective than what they’ve produced to date. A Logan Webb rebound is very likely after slogging his way through four starts, though the counter argument falls back on whether the Giants are in good enough form to take advantage of David Peterson. That’s the downside case for the home favorite.
Trading Off Edges
The upside case falls with Webb and the better-performing bullpen. San Francisco’s relief unit holds an edge to date over New York’s, plus the fact that the Mets likely cannot follow Peterson up with a lefty reliever after Brooks Raley pitched two nights in a row. However, the availability of Drew Smith and co-closers Adam Ottavino and David Robertson could pin down the Giants if David Peterson can pitch into the 6th inning. San Francisco essentially has everyone but the two long men at their disposal.
This is one of the more interesting handicaps to run across my desk in a few days. Pitching edges for the Giants, hitting and fielding edges for the Mets. Plus I’m still in the dark regarding who may be riding the pine for the Mets this afternoon. After I boil all of this down, the small dog prices on the full game and first 5 innings lines get my money. A conservative approach to the New York lineup dilemma still puts me in the 2-4% advantage range between my numbers and the market. Time to fire on the lighter side this afternoon. BOL this weekend and I’ll be back Monday morning.
WAGER: Mets +110 (0.75u)
WAGER: Mets First 5 Innings +108 (0.75u)
Heading for Home
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