vs. 
Cincinnati Bearcats (1-0) vs. #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0)
Saturday September 7th
12:00pm
Ohio Stadium – Columbus
(ABC)
Ohio State -15.5 (-110)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
On Saturday The University of Cincinnati football team will travel up I-71 North in an attempt to do something they have not done since a former Ohioan was serving as President of the United States. That Ohioan President was William McKinley and that task was defeating the Ohio State Buckeye football team. The scarlet and gray have dominated football in the state of Ohio and recently in the Big 10 conference so much though that they can feel comfortable themselves THE Ohio State.
Urban Meyer is now in the announcer’s booth and Ryan Day opened up with a win in his first game last weekend against Florida A&M. The Buckeyes came out on fire before playing a relatively close game in the final three quarters. Cincinnati on the other hand used a good defensive performance and won the battle in the trenches to win their opener at home against UCLA. This a more intriguing game than you may think, beyond the obvious background of a state rival trying to dethrone the champ.
What We’re Watching
There are no shortage of storylines leading up to this game both from a technical standpoint and more so from a commonality and connections perspective. Luke Fickell spent his younger days as a staple in Columbus both as a player, assistant coach and sandwiched briefly in between Buckeye legends Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer as the interim coach during the 2011 season. As you look across the coaching tree there are several other connections between the two programs. It’s hard to see if there are any clear advantages with these connected coaches other than the fact that both sides have a little extra skin in the game. You’ve gotta believe this would be a bit of a pinnacle moment in Fickell’s career if the Cats’ were able to spring the upset.
Examining these teams brings us to some of the typical important matchup points. Quarterback play will garner a lot of the attention, and deservedly so. Transfer Justin Fields looked like a super-machine starting his first game a week ago. He threw the ball on point and looked agile and experienced as a runner. It’s hard to understand exactly why the Buckeyes struggled a bit after the first quarter against Florida A&M, other than wondering if they simply lost a little interest after the adrenaline of the opening game had worn off. Fields will be looking to show that early-game form against the Bearcats as many in Columbus believe that he could challenge the top Heisman picks for a shot at that award at the end of the year. For UC, Desmond Ridder has had a a more humbling path to earning his job en route to winning AAC Rookie of the Year honors, and in a short period has proven himself a more than capable QB and leader. Ridder will need to get throws out quickly and take care of the ball to make this game interesting.
Moving past the obvious quarterback battle, this game figures to have a little bit of an old-school feel as both teams will be looking to establish the running game and flex their defensive muscles. Cincinnati will look to bell-cow Michael Warren II while J.K. Dobbins will pace Ohio State as both teams struggled to get the running game moving in their week one matchups. One has to wonder if having four brand new starters on the offensive line will hinder OSU’s ability to block and protect? Whichever team can move the ball better on early downs could have a clear advantage as neither team wants to find itself in 3rd and long situations against each other.
Speaking of defenses, there is a lot to be excited about for both teams. Ohio State showed some signs of tightening up from some miscues that plagued them in the 2018 season. The Buckeyes will look to pressure Ridder and have the ability off the edge with junior Chase Young. Linebacker Malik Harrison lived in the backfield against A&M and has the speed and ability to make game altering plays at any time. The Bearcats were dominant against UCLA forcing four turnovers and return 10 key contributors from last year’s defense. The Cats’ don’t necessarily have five-star talent on their defense, but they are deep, dependable and consistent.
Key Trends and Indicators
58% of the public money is on Ohio State
A surprising 72% of the public money is on the over total of 53
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS on the road in September over the last 2 seasons
Ohio State has won it’s last 14 home games by an average of 30 points
Cincinnati has not beaten Ohio State since 1897
Ohio State has won their last 41 games against an opponent from Ohio
BetCrushers Take:
It’s not really a huge surprise that a power school like Ohio State has the higher take of public money going into this game. The line has conversely gone in the opposite direction as it opened at OSU -17 and as of Friday evening is hovering around -15.5. The Sharp money is coming in on Cincinnati and as many experts are looking at this as a very competitive matchup. This Bearcat team, while not spectacular, is really solid all across the board. Ohio State on the other hand seems to be a team that still needs a little time to get themselves worthy of that top-5 ranking they currently have. With OSU’s inexperienced offensive line, Cincinnati should be able to win or at least stay very close in the battle in the trenches, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. If they can limit the big plays and mistakes which they are poised to do, Ohio State could really struggle to put up points. On offense, if Cincinnati doesn’t inflict self-harm with turnovers, this will be a grind it out type game.
Ultimately, we decided not to play the under, but that bet is one you’ll want to take a close look at. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if this one ends up in the low 40’s. If you’re a risk-taker, you can get as much as +580 on the moneyline if you think the Bearcats can pull the road upset. It’s an absolute possibility, but based on over 100 years of history, we can’t go that far out on a limb. Ultimately, we locked this one in at Cincinnati +16 and feel really good about the breakdown, value and large chunk of points. Most likely, this game is pretty close throughout with Fields and Ohio State proving just a little too much on their homefield edging out a solid Cincinnati squad.
Ohio State 30, 
Cincinnati 20
