Previous Week Plays – 0-0
Season Record – 0-0
In the sports handicapping world the start of football season is like Christmas to a child. We’ve spent all offseason tracking moves, evaluating teams and players, and adjusting our rankings in preparation. Although we generally ease our way into the NFL season, week 1 offers quite a few plays we’re feeling really high on. Here’s what we’re betting:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) ATS (0-0) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-0) ATS (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
1:00pm
CBS
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
Baltimore Ravens -5 (-110)
Over/Under 37.5 (-110)
Baltimore at Miami was not originally a game we were locked in on until the announcement that Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting the start at QB for the Dolphins. Let’s look past the fact that this decision seems to make very little sense for new head coach Brian Flores, and simply evaluate how that impacts any potential wagers. It’s probably unfair to grade young Josh Rosen on his performances last year, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’s going to be an NFL quarterback. Fitzpatrick definitely gives the Dolphins a better chance at winning and putting points on the board. We’ll come back to that in a second.
Let’s dig into something that is possibly a little bit of a bigger surprise in this matchup. This Baltimore defense looks surprisingly average by our evaluation. It’s certainly not a bad defense at all, but we’ve all gotten used to the Ravens having one of the best defenses in the league every year over the past two decades. This Ravens group is obviously going to be a run first and defensive team which explains the low total at 37.5. But let’s jump back in the Fitpatrick dynamic. Has there ever been a more consistent player in the NFL than Ryan Fitzpatrick? No we’re not talking about him being consistently good, we’re referring to him consistently starting with a new team lighting up the scoreboard, before turning into an interception machine.
The Dolphins will most likely come out playing some of their better offensive football. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Miami pull an upset or at least cover in this game. That being said, that’s not what we’re feeling strongly about in this one. This game should go over, and could possibly go way over. I’d expect the Dolphins to be able to score some points in this one, and the Ravens shouldn’t have too much trouble wearing down a thin Miami defense. We’ll probably be seeing Josh Rosen by week 4 or 5 and at that point Miami under totals will be something to keep an eye on. But in this week one matchup, we’re banking on this total going over the low-set 37.5
Key Stats – Baltimore is 1-7 ATS as a favorite in their last 8 games
Fitzpatrick will most likely put up a lot of points for both teams based on his track record. It would be a big upset, but not impossible for Miami to win this one outright. Look for a high scoring and competitive game.
BetCrushers Take: Over 37.5
Baltimore 27, Miami 17
Kansas City vs. Jacksonville
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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
1:00pm
CBS
TIAA Bank Field – Jacksonville, FL
Kansas City -4 (-110)
Over/Under 52 (-110)
This game is one we circled early on when week 1 NFL spreads came out with a big asterisk assigned to it. What would Tyreek Hill’s status be on the Kansas City depth chart? Well it looks like Hill is ready to roll and this Chiefs offense could be even better this year than a year ago which should be scary for the rest of the league.
Assuming AJ Bouye can bounce back from a rough season in 2018 this Jaguars defense still has some big time talent including rookie first round pick Josh Allen. I expect them to be a much stronger unit this year overall even though the loss of Telvin Smith has to be concerning. I think the point with this game to look at is, it doesn’t matter who’s playing defense on the other side of KC. The Chiefs are too loaded with weapons that they’re always going to have an advantage somewhere on the field. Travis Kelce could have a big day against a re-shuffled safety tandem and linebacking corp.
On the other side of the ball the Jaguars are putting their faith in Hollywood story Nick Foles at QB. We can safely assume that’ll be a nice upgrade throwing the ball from the Blake Bortles era, however don’t expect Foles to be lighting up the league. The Jags don’t exactly have premier talent for weapons and we’ll want to keep an eye on how well Foles fits in with this team. Kansas City on the other hand is hopeful that their defense with the additions of Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu will help take a little pressure off the offense. This game may start out a little slow for both teams and the Jags should be able to keep this one close early on. Ultimately, the Kansas City offense should be able to make enough plays down the stretch to get a solid win and cover the 4 points.
Key Stats – Jacksonville is 1-13 straight up against the AFC West
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS against Jacksonville in their last 5 matchups
Kansas City is 7-0 ATS in September the last 2 seasons
Laying 4 on the road has square bet written all over it, but the public is going to cash in on this one. I’d expect Jacksonville to be competitive early before finally being unable to stop Mahomes and this Chiefs offense.
BetCrushers Take: Kansas City -4
Kansas City 30, Jacksonville 20
Teaser Bet
Green Bay vs. Chicago and Houston vs. New Orleans
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Green Bay Packers (0-0) vs. Chicago Bears (0-0)
Thursday September 5th
8:20pm
NBC
Soldier Field – Chicago, IL
Chicago Bears – 3 (-120)
Over/Under 46 (-110)
Houston Texans (0-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Monday September 9th
7:10pm
ESPN
Mercedes Benz Stadium – New Orleans, LA
New Orleans Saints – 7 (EVEN)
Over/Under 53 (-110)
There are a few games that are appealing as teaser options in the week 1 slate. Here is one we really like, but in full transparency, part of the reason we’re putting this play out is we wanted some action on the season opener and a Monday night game. Without overly strong opinions ATS or with the totals we turned our attention to a teaser bet.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: GREEN BAY +9 and NEW ORLEANS -1
Green Bay travels to Chicago in what should be a fiery opening Thursday night matchup of the longest rivalry in the NFL. Green Bay is a team that many experts are really looking to become elite again expecting Aaron Rodgers to regain his old form. The Bears on the other hand are going to rely on the best defense in the league and a maturing Mitch Trubisky at quarterback to guide them on a deep playoff run. If you only look on paper, the Bears should win this game and three points doesn’t seem like a problem. Say what you’d like, we’re not prepared to hand this division and game to the Bears.
The most appealing part of the first leg of this teaser bet is Aaron Rodgers. Is Aaron Rodgers really going to lose by double digits in the season opening prime-time game? It just seems damn near impossible that would happen. Think back to when the Bears/Packers played a year ago in the national televised game.
Flipping over to the second game of this teaser we have much of the same situation. New Orleans will be defending the turf against a Houston team that lost two key contributors in Lamar Miller and Jadeveon Clowney in the last week and a half. This game should provide a lot of points and entertainment as well as star power. As is the case in the other game, is Drew Brees really going to lose a home game in prime-time? That ain’t happening, at least not in this game.
Key Stats – Aaron Rodgers has only lost by double digits to the Bears once in his career / The Texans are 3-10 ATS in prime-time
Nothing like book ending a 2 team teaser on a Thursday and a Monday. Ultimately, we’ll never feel too concerned with giving Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees 6 additional points, particularly to get them past key numbers.
BetCrushers Take: Tease Green Bay +9 and New Orleans -1
Chicago 26, Green Bay 23 and New Orleans 34, Houston 26
San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay
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San Francisco 49ers (0-0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
4:25pm
FOX
Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Tampa Bay -1 (-105)
Over/Under 50 (-110)
When it comes to inconsistent quarterback play, look no further than Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston. On any given week, it seems like a coin flip determines whether he’ll give a three-TD or a three-turnover performance. His body of work tells a little bit different story; Winston completed about 64% of his passes in 2017 & 2018 and has a fairly consistent Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt throughout his career, grading out above-average in that metric over those two years.
His counterpart, Jimmy Garoppolo, comes into 2019 with extremely high expectations. Those expectations, however, are based predominantly on his brief tenure as the Patriots’ starter. Jimmy’s 2018 season was cut short by injury after he led the Niners to five victories in five starts in 2017. Peel pack the layers and you’ll see that his QB Rating and Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt have steadily declined year over year. Small sample size? Sure, but we need to see more to believe that he can lead this team to a winning season.
Garoppolo’s 2018 ACL tear came while scrambling along the sidelines against the Chiefs. Jimmy’s mobility should be a concern for Niners’ backers, considering he was sacked 13 times in three games last season. Both teams’ offensive lines are poorly built for pass protection (Winston was sacked 27 times in his 11 games), but an edge goes to San Fransisco for at least attempting to field an NFL backfield despite Jerick McKinnon being on the shelf yet again.
On the defensive side, the Buccaneers defensive unit is expected by most to be bad again this year. Both secondaries are lackluster, as is the Niners’ linebacking corps. San Francisco’s defensive line continues to be full of potential, but they left a lot to be desired last year. It’s hard to put much faith there, though Dee Ford is a significant upgrade that will help DeForest Buckner and the rest of his crew.
Though the cliched battle in the trenches is essential to the outcome of this game, the difference comes down to the playmakers. George Kittle should continue to be a dynamic weapon in Shanahan’s offense, which is important because he is pretty much Garoppolo’s sole legitimate receiving weapon. Tevin Coleman and Matt Brieda outclass the Bucs’ backfield, but nobody on either offense holds a candle to Mike Evans. If he suits up on Sunday, he, Chris Godwin, and up-and-comer O.J. Howard could wreak havoc in the subpar San Francisco secondary.
Key Trends: San Francisco is 0-8 Straight Up in their last 8 road games; 61% of public money is on San Francisco
Kyle Shanahan is an offensive mastermind, though his game management skills need honing. He faces off against an O.G. offensive wizard in Bruce Arians, who would love to teach the young Shanahan a thing or two about leading an NFL team on game day. His return to the sidelines should bring new energy to a Bucs team getting disrespected by this point spread. Raymond James Stadium barely gives their home team a couple-point advantage any more, though this place could get juiced with the promise of a new season under a competent head coach. Assuming Mike Evans and Lavonte David take the field, you have to give the edge to Tampa Bay in the Florida heat and humidity with the better coach.
BetCrushers Take: Tampa Bay -1 (Assuming Mike Evans starts)
Tampa Bay 27, San Francisco 23
Teaser Bet
Washington vs. Philadelphia and New York vs. Dallas
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Washington Redskins (0-0) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
1:00pm
FOX
Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia Eagles – 8.5 (-120)
Over/Under 45.5 (-110)
New York Giants (0-0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Sunday September 8th
4:25pm
FOX
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX
Dallas Cowboys – 7 (-105)
Over/Under 45 (-110)
If you happened to catch our article explaining a teaser bet, you probably have already seen our week 1 teaser pick here. But in case you haven’t we’ll replay it for you. One thing to note is the availability of Ezekiel Elliott as that can obviously play a big part of how well Dallas performs.
TEASER MOVES SPREADS TO: PHILADELPHIA -2.5 and DALLAS -1.5
The Philadelphia Eagles have owned the Washington Redskins and should play well at home. The Dallas Cowboys have owned the New York Giants and are also playing a team that is very thin at home. It’s possible that both teams could cover the actual spreads with blowouts but being divisional games it’s also possible these games could come down to a late field goal or some scoring in garbage time.
What’s very important to note here is the 6 point teaser gets both the Eagles and the Cowboys past the critical number of a 3 point win. You may want to monitor the Dallas situation with Zeke before placing this bet, but we locked this one in weeks ago so we’re riding it.
