The clock is ticking on the first half of the 2022 MLB season with the All-Star Break just a couple days away. This means a break from daily handicapping while providing some time to take a step back to look at the league. I’d lay odds that D-Nice will have the crew ready for a mid-season Wager Rager pod. So stay tuned for that – it’s always a good time and Yanni usually has a couple interesting props to play. Since my reads on the Saturday slate don’t have a ton of confidence, let’s go Reds-Cardinals for the MLB Morning Breakdown for 7-16-2022. I don’t have anything on this game at this time but really liked what we might get with a couple interesting pitchers taking the mound this afternoon. Thanks for the read and BOL this weekend!
CINCINNATI REDS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (-170)
N. Lodolo (L) vs. M. Mikolas (R)
As a lifelong Reds fan, I am fully aware of this team’s role in the 2022 NL Central race: stay above the Cubs and not finish in last place. Although they were in a different position heading into the All-Star Break last season with a more potent lineup, this club turned up the intensity – and got some of our hopes up – with a promising early-July run. The stakes are much lower these days but sweeping the Rays last weekend then taking two of three in the Bronx is a little reminiscent of that 2021 heater.
St. Louis’ sleepy offense changed course a bit last night with a 7-3 win over 22-year-old Hunter Greene. The Reds’ pitching phenom is just one of a trio of promising young arms that are getting their time to shine in the majors this season. Creeping out from under the fireballer’s shadow are two 24-year-old prospects Graham Ashcraft and today’s starter, Nick Lodolo. The lefty has made a splash with pinpoint command and plenty of strikeouts on the back of a filthy slider…
Veteran Hitters With Ulterior Motives
Nick Lodolo has been quite effective when hitters do not put the ball in play. That is reflected by a gaudy 28.9% K rate with an equally impressive 3.67 K/BB ratio. For sake of comparison, Lodolo’s cohort Hunter Greene has a similar strikeout rate but with a less profound 2.93 K/BB ratio. He’ll have his hands full with veteran hitters Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt who are far from the easiest guys to get out consistently. Both of these anchors are on the tough side to strike out and set the tone for a St. Louis lineup that is consistently a top-third unit in terms of avoiding strikeouts.
STL K%, by Period/Split
| 2022 | L14 | L7 | v. LHP | v. RHP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 20.6% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 20.1% | 20.7% |
As the Redbirds’ offense awakens from its recent slumber, Lodolo will be put to the test this afternoon. Temps could reach 100 degrees and a breeze out will not do either pitcher any favors when hitters made solid contact. And the return of Brendan Donovan and Tyler O’Neill from the IL certainly puts the pressure on the rookie to be spot on if the Reds want any chance of finishing out the first half with a third straight series victory. Furthermore, St. Louis’ position as a top 5-ish offense against left-handed pitching falls on the shoulders of Goldy, Arenado, and Donovan. Combine this strength with Lodolo’s rough .406 BABIP and expectations for him to last into the 6th inning are modest, at best.
Nick Lodolo Strikeouts per Start w/ Opponent K% vs. LHP
| Lodolo Ks | Opp K% v. LHP | |
|---|---|---|
| TBR | 6 | 20.1% |
| NYM | 8 | 20.3% |
| STL | 7 | 20.1% |
| @SDP | 8 | 20.6% |
| CLE | 4 | 21.1% |
FanDuel’s strikeout prop prices reflect the tug-of-war between Lodolo’s high-K profile, the Cardinals’ low-K tendencies, and an expected 5-inning duration for the rookie. Sure, he has racked up 6+ strikeouts in each of the four starts since his MLB debut. But teams have more intel on his tendencies and his stuff now than they did a month ago. Is this increasing knowledge base enough to hold him in check this afternoon? The risk-reward profile leads you to believe the Cards will shave a couple strikeouts from their previous meeting with the 24-year-old. One reason is their plate discipline. The other is the hitter-friendly environment at Busch Stadium that could cut his start short and reduce his opportunities.
The Mikolas Effect
Not to be overlooked in all the Nick Lodolo hype is the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. The Reds’ implied 37% chance to walk away with a victory depends heavily on the 33-year-old right-hander. Miles gets by as a contact pitcher who rarely hands out freebies to opponents. You can see that in his stifling 4.9% walk rate and very effective 4.00 K/BB ratio. And maybe – just maybe – this long ball weather combines with Mikolas’ recent trend of 9 home runs in his last 9 starts. But the reality of it all rests on the righty’s heavy sinker and sneaky-good slider. That formula typically produces a 6+ IP, 2-3 R line reflected in the game total of 8.5. He is stingy and Cincy definitely has their work cut out for them.
If anything, my handicap tends to agree with the St. Louis side at -170. That’s even with a favorable expectation for Lodolo. Don’t overlook the Cardinals’ significant fielding edge over a piecemeal Cincy defense. Maybe there is value on the Reds in the first 5 before they make that dreaded call to the bullpen. Cincinnati’s relief unit is consistently a upper-4.00s FIP group, although they conserved the better half of the bunch for the weekend. Assuming Mikolas makes it through the 6th with a lead or tie, expect Jordan Hicks and Ryan Helsley to wrap up the final two innings. With all that said, my heart loves the Reds here but my brain says otherwise. It’s the price that will keep me from wagering on a side. Perhaps it’s time to play a strikeout prop and enjoy the game this afternoon…
Heading for Home
Be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – your source for free handicapping insights into our daily baseball perspectives and season previews. Want us to deliver our newest content directly to you? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your MLB wagers!
