Many thanks to Big Tasty for hosting our five-game Friday night livestream breakdown. And give a tip of the cap to Tasty for his call on the Texas Rangers – at my expense, mind you! Still, Friday & Saturday treated us decently despite the Astros setback so we roll into Sunday with a a pair of handicaps in the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-22-2022. FYI, everything I bet in the MLB is posted to Betstamp as of May 11th. So no more hand tracking featured handicaps on our website. BOL!
MLB Results Since Last Post (5-20-2022)
ATLANTA BRAVES @ MIAMI MARLINS (-115)
I. Anderson (R) vs. S. Alcantara (R)
Miami runs the risk of getting swept by the defending World Champions in this afternoon’s last of a three-game set. Neither team has been especially explosive this weekend and scoring could come at a premium once again with a pair of above-average starters on the bump. In terms of pure offensive productivity numbers, the Marlins have outpaced the Braves by a significant margin this past week, over 20% in the last two weeks, and around 12% on the season.
Both clubs are slugging slightly above average. However, there is further delineation between these lineups in terms of their splits against right-handed pitchers. Atlanta’s slash line against this split (.223/.293/.385) lags Miami’s (.256/.327/.414) and falls about 25% shy in park-adjusted productivity. Yet I have to temper what we’ve seen so far this season with my macro expectation for each team – and that means a gradual regression towards each other. That still yields a slight edge to the Marlins this afternoon from a statistical standpoint. Both teams have hitters with success against the opposing starter, so no strong edge via individual matchups (ATL: Albies & Swanson, MIA: Chisolm, Rojas, & Aguilar).
Do the Arms Hold the Key?
Often they do and today is no exception. Alcantara vs. Anderson is the main reason why I’m isolating the first 5 inning wager in lieu of the full game. Miami backers should beware of Atlanta’s significant advantage in the bullpens – a factor that influenced my expected win probability by about 3%. Ian Anderson makes hay with a ton of ground ball contact (47.7%) in the absence of strikeouts. Although lacking in the K department can often be mitigated with grounders, Anderson’s control issues show their ugly head from time to time – leading to an anemic 1.39 K/BB ratio on this season. That can be problematic against a Marlins offense that gets on base somewhat reliably. Whether Ian’s increased 41.4% hard hit rate hurts him too much in the spacious Loan Depot Park is my key question today.
There are strong comparisons between these starters in terms of output. Sandy is also a contact pitcher that produces a ton of ground balls (52.6%) and holds a slim 2.10 K/BB ratio. The key differentiator between the two is Alcantara’s decreasing hard hit rate (34.1%) as opposed to Anderson’s, which has ticked up slightly each year since his 2020 MLB debut. We’re also looking at about a 3/4-run differential in favor of the Marlins’ righty in terms of FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. I wouldn’t lay much more than -125 with -130 being a hard stop on the first 5 inning line behind Miami given the starting pitchers and offensive metrics. Atlanta could have momentum rolling into the final game of this series but it’s not a massive factor at this time. Laying this number with the Marlins feels funny but the numbers support it.
WAGER: Marlins First 5 Innings -123
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES (+150)
C. Kluber (R) vs. S. Watkins (R)
Let’s lead with the conclusion: Spencer Watkins puts the ball in Tampa Bay’s court to score early and often. And the Rays have been thumping the ball recently (.428 SLG last week), so what forces align to knock them off course in Baltimore? Well, Wander Franco was kept out of the lineup last night and may not play today before the team’s day off on Monday. To that, I say that Wander’s 2 hits in his last 9 games left much of the Rays’ recent big production in the hands of his teammates. Not to diminish Franco’s importance in this lineup, but his squad has held it down quite well without monster contributions from the phenom.
Conversely, the streaky Orioles offense scuffled into a .211/.263/.351 slash line this past week that is not unlike their season-long splits against right-handed pitching (.234/.303/.364). Their overall lack of consistent power could get a little boost with today’s hot and humid weather in the mid-Atlantic. Then again, that sort of thing works both ways and plays nicely into the lefty hitters’ hands. Baltimore’s Mullins and Santander in addition to Tampa Bay’s Choi, Phillips, and Kiermaier could feast this afternoon depending on how these starting pitchers show up for battle.
Whose Arm Fuels the Offensive Fire?
Corey Kluber has been fairly good as a 36-year-old starter despite getting raked over the coals against the Angels a couple weeks ago (8 runs on 11 hits) and against the Red Sox a month ago (4 runs on 11 hits). Even with those negative marks on his 2022 resume, the contact pitcher boasts a 5.83 K/BB ratio with reasonable ground ball and hard contact rates. When Kluber hasn’t been a disaster, he’s held opponents to 2 or fewer runs. His 3.71 FIP/3.41 xFIP and 3.30 SIERA speak to that.
The other side of the coin really intrigues me. Spencer Watkins can be quite accommodating, having failed to make it through the 5th inning in each of his last four starts. Note that Watkins yielded more than 2 runs in just half of those most recent outings. I attribute this more to sequencing than anything, especially given the danger zone he lives in with 10.2% strikeout and 10.9% walk rates. To his credit, Watkins is keeping the ball on the ground. Things could be much worse for Spencer and his 5.10 ERA. Just look at what an ugly 0.93 K/BB ratio does to his underlying metrics: 6.13 FIP/5.76 xFIP and 5.75 SIERA. He’s the kind of pitcher that begs to be more aggressive than how I am playing this game, but that’s how I roll…
WAGER: [0.5u] Rays First 5 Innings -1/2 (-122)
WAGER: [0.5u] Rays First 5 Innings Over 2.5 Runs -109
Today’s Full MLB Card:
Heading for Home
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