Download Episode 2 of 2022 (Las Vegas)
Episode 2 of the Playing the Odds NASCAR Style podcast heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the 2022 Pennzoil 400! But first, JJ joins Paul on the show to recap the final race on Auto Club’s 2-mile oval. The guys talk wrecked cars, hard feelings, and what we’re getting with practice and qualifying back in the fold.
Rolling the Dice in the 2022 Pennzoil 400 – Featured Handicaps for Las Vegas:
William Byron -120 vs. Martin Truex, Jr.
Christopher Bell -115 vs. Erik Jones
Bonus Handicap: Cole Custer -120 vs. Chris Buescher
As limited as it may be at this point in the season, how much of a role does current form play in this mid-tier matchup battle? Cole Custer’s 14th best total speed in last week’s Auto Club 400 is a touch better than Chris Buescher’s 17th best mark. Buescher’s unceremonious exit from the race yielded a P35 while Custer’s Top 10 bid fell just short. In terms of results that affect a head-to-head matchup, the order of finish is king. Although these two were running close to one another before the #17 spun out, CC’s race rating reigned supreme despite a rough -28 pass differential (Buescher’s was +1).
Looking to the Past
The thing us handicappers have to keep in mind is how the new Next Gen car separates this season from all previous ones. But we don’t have much data to go with for this car. So when you look back at 2021 performance on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks, the #17 team separated itself from the #41 as a rock solid 550-hp outfit. Buescher’s P14 at the spring Las Vegas race out-finished Custer’s P25. From there, Chris went on to post three straight Top 8 finishes on 1.5-mile tracks: Atlanta, Kansas, and Charlotte (the Coca-Cola 600). He had the upper hand over the younger Custer in all four of those races in terms of finish and overall race ratings.
Buescher’s increased proficiency on these intermediate tracks led to mid-teens or better finishes in 7 of 9 such races last year. He was tripped up in the Las Vegas and Texas playoff races, still Cole finished ahead of Chris in only 1 of those 9: Texas. So strong advantage to the #17 for this track type based on the 2021 season. And when you isolate Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the most recent four races – two in each of 2020 & 2021 – pit these two drivers against one another with their current teams:
- Cole Custer (#41) – 3 races rated 42-52; outlier is the 2020 playoff race: P16, 71.8 rating, only one of the four where he improved on his starting position.
- Chris Buescher (#17) – 3 races rated 71-75; outlier is the 2021 playoff race: P25, 55.6 rating, only one of the four where he did not improve his starting position.
JJ’s Wager: Chris Buescher +100 > Cole Custer
The result of the last four Las Vegas races? Chris Buescher outperformed Cole Custer in all four – both finishing position and rating. Plus last week’s result is borderline inconclusive when it comes to gauging the 2022 Pennzoil 400. From a market perspective, both drivers opened at +250 in the widely-available DraftKings Top 10 market. Equal footing there, yet the matchup price is skewed towards Cole Custer?
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