After successfully backing the Cardinals Tuesday, I laid low on the MLB card for a number of reasons. Generally speaking, the card quality peaks in June and then we start seeing too many starters that are tough to back or too expensive to fade. There are still gems in the daily slate but one thing is certain: you don’t have to bet when you don’t find the gems.
The BetCrushers Team and I strive to provide quality analysis of games that we are taking a financial position in. Like any other handicapper, we want to be right 100% of the time. The reality is that it takes a sound process and a strong stomach to scratch out a profit on a win rate well below 100%.
Being more selective with the MLB games has been very beneficial as the season has progressed. A 5-3 record with a +2.8 unit profit since the ASB is not a good reason to hurt myself patting my own back. We push each other to be disciplined and make sound bets, which is why my overextending on too many plays earlier this season was disappointing. It was uncharacteristic of our approach throughout the years. That being said, here’s today’s Solo Shot…
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Ridin’ That Train: Cardinals +107
So “bloodbath” may have been a poor assessment of Tuesday’s matchup between these NL Central foes. Hey, look, the amount of damage expected was overestimated but the profit was the same. Wednesday, however, was a bloodbath. And it marked the third win in a row for the Cardinals over the Pirates in their four-game series.
That 14-8 victory was an early-game thumping of the starters which then relied on the relievers to see most of it through. Lyles didn’t make it out of the 2nd inning and Pittsburgh used 5 guys out of the pen to close it out. Wainwright went 5 innings, so the Cardinals only needed throw Mayers and Brebbia in for a couple innings each.
This stresses the importance of the starter’s performance to cut down the bullpen liability and get the game to the late innings with a lead. Both bullpens were on the fresh side coming into this series, yet performed worse in more ways than they’ve been good in these three games. (Perhaps this is more indicative of the state of the MLB.) Again, I still lean towards the St. Louis bullpen in its current state.
Mikolas vs. Musgrove: An Afternoon Showdown
Miles Mikolas has been a disaster on the road. His .335 road average is 110 points higher than it is at home; he gives up homers at a 2.28 HR/9 rate on the road versus 0.67 at home. His home WHIP is higher, ERA almost 5 points higher, etc. Mikolas is going to give up runs this afternoon; it’s just a matter of how long he’s left in the game that likely determines how bad the damage is. I expect something like 1 home run and 4 earned runs over 4+ innings of work.
Joe Musgrove has mixed results when looking at his effectiveness at home. Slugging (.475) is .125 points higher at PNC Park, and his home run rate of 1.43 HR/9 at home is much higher than the 0.34 rate on the road. Other metrics like WHIP (1.13 vs.1.27) and hard contact (35.7% vs. 46.3%) are stronger at home.
Beginning on May 25th Musgrove started 3 consecutive times at home. Since that date, he’s made 7 home and 4 road starts. Overall, he’s logged a higher home run rate (1.44 HR/9), WHIP (1.31), and 44.8% hard contact during this period. A 4.47 ERA/4.42 xFIP is respectable for the young righty. He should have more success than Mikolas today, though I expect the gap to be less of a factor if Mikolas is yanked early.
Who Can Seize the Opportunity?
Monday and Tuesday’s lower-scoring affairs gave way to Wednesday’s scoring extravaganza. When Mikolas is on a mound that isn’t located in St. Louis, you have to expect the Cardinals bullpen to get a lot of work. I’d argue that both bullpens were given a breather Tuesday after being spread thin on Monday. Wednesday involved more of Pittsburgh’s relievers than St. Louis’, but I anticipate a short leash on Mikolas this afternoon.
Pittsburgh and St. Louis have been about average in getting guys on base lately. However, the Cardinals are significantly more efficient in pushing them across the plate. That efficiency will be needed this afternoon to crack Musgrove and support a sub-par Mikolas. St. Louis will need to give him sufficient run support to hold on to this one and get the sweep.
The Redbirds are on a scorching hot 7-1 run and have pulled within a half-game of the Cubs in the NL Central race. Milwaukee is lurking but Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are on the outside looking in. One could make the case for buying low on the Pirates (like I did unsuccessfully with Texas on Monday night), but I can’t get there today. The Cards have won 7 in a row at PNC Park and are 5-1 in their last 6 against them in general.
