All it took was the cliched one swing of the bat from Atlanta’s starting pitcher Huascar Ynoa to break the Braves/Nationals game wide open. As for yesterday’s featured play – Ynoa not only held the Nats in check at the plate, he crushed a grand slam in the top of the 6th inning to notch the team’s 6th run of the night and get us the cash. After stopping a two-game skid, I have a little wind in the sails of the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-5-2021. Happy Cinco de Mayo, folks!
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners (-120)
J. Means (L) vs. Y. Kikuchi (L)
Seattle also enters the day with wind in their sails after cracking Baltimore’s bullpen for 4 runs in the 8th inning. They’ll throw lefty Yusei Kikuchi this afternoon in an attempt to snag their 18th win of the season. Kikuchi righted the ship last time out against the Astros, going 7 innings with 0 runs on 1 hit. Plus he struck out 7 and walked just 2 batters – defying his career 2.35 K/BB ratio. Fortunately, Yusei faces a team that has walked just 5.7% against left-handers and 7.1% overall this season. His 44.7% hard hit rate, however, could be a liability.
Kikuchi’s cutter has been his bread-and-butter pitch since incorporating it into the arsenal last year. It picks up a lot of slack from a middling fastball and a sometimes-on slider. However, he faces an Orioles team that hits southpaws well (.305/.386/.483; 137 wRC+). But two of Baltimore’s surging trifecta of hitters – Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, and Trey Mancini – are quite good against cutters. Mullins and Mancini do well against that pitch while Hays is deadly against fastballs. To a degree, the Orioles lineup relies heavily on this trio atop the lineup to fuel their offense while Pedro Severino, Freddy Galvis, and Maikel Franco have also contributed positively against lefties.
Riding the Horse
For my money, this game is all about John Means. Although he was popped for 2 homers and 3 runs against the Mariners last month, I am still a buyer of the 28-year-old lefty. Means has been barreled up for a career-high 12.1% this season, though he limits damage by minimizing walks behind a strong 3.80 K/BB ratio. Aside from being primarily a fastball pitcher, John has diminished the use of his slider in recent years in favor of a nasty changeup and cutter. As much as he has outpaced expectations so far this season, the guy has been solid in terms of FIP (3.62) and his 3.84 xFIP does not disagree. Means will have stumbles from time to time, though my money backs a better outing than what he had against Seattle three weeks ago.
Similar to the Orioles, Seattle has been more successful against southpaws this season – making a 180-degree turn from 2020’s woes in part due to the return of Mitch Haniger. Haniger’s .320/.333/.800 slash line versus left-handers is good for a 208 wRC+ despite walking just 3.7% and striking out 25.9% of the time. He is joined by Dylan Moore and Ty France as a potent threesome that is solid against changeups and that have 155 or greater wRC+ against lefties. These guys will make it difficult on Means, even if the team has a 27.5% strikeout rate in the past seven days.
Improving Bullpens
Both teams’ relief units have been better than expected this season. While Baltimore’s group is slightly below league average, it has been about one-third of a run to the good. Seattle’s relievers boast a sub-4.00 FIP that has been even better the last couple weeks. One caveat is how much their middle relievers have worked the last few days though. Closer Kendall Graveman got the nod early last night, spanning two innings to shut down an Orioles threat. However, the M’s have two solid righty middle relievers in Will Vest and Drew Steckenrider who did not pitch on Tuesday. They can flip any advantage that Baltimore may have had against Kikuchi in a hurry.
The Orioles bullpen surrendered the late lead last night but have closer Cesar Valdez available and key middle reliever Cole Sulser ready to take the reigns from Means. Whether or not key cogs Adam Plutko and Paul Fry can jump back in after getting them through the 5th and 6th innings is the question. All told, I prefer not to deal with Baltimore’s relievers going head-to-head against Seattle’s these days. Instead, I’ll opt to isolate the Means vs. Kikuchi matchup despite both offenses having favorable matchups against them. You can call me a fool for this later – but I have Means and the O’s with a 54% edge over Kikuchi and the Mariners in the first 5 innings this afternoon. Give me the small plus-money shot with the Birds!
WAGER: Orioles First 5 Innings +102
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals (+120)
M. Fried (L) vs. E. Fedde (R)
This is a rare position on a game total for me. I dabbled in MLB totals a few seasons back after years of playing only sides for a long time – and it did not go all that well. At least as far as volume betting goes. But I could not resist this opportunity to back both offenses this evening without picking a side. Simply stated, each lineup sets up advantageously against the opposing starter.
Lefty Max Fried returns from a short stint on the IL for a hamstring injury after making three starts. Each outing became progressively worse this season as Fried racked up plenty of strikeouts alongside walks and homers. 2021 has been a far cry from his previous seasons’ sub-4.00 FIP work, and he squares up against a Nationals lineup that has been deadly against southpaws (.305/.386/.483; 137 wRC+). Fried’s fastball/slider/curve repertoire has not been sharp to date, and his 45.2% hard hit rate reflects that. And presumably Juan Soto gets back into the lineup after being activated from the IL yesterday. He joins a crew of Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Kyle Schwarber and veteran platoon hitter Ryan Zimmerman who are lefty killers with OPS this season of 1.437, 1.323, 1.283, and .957, respectively.
Opposing Fried is right-hander Erick Fedde, who was greeted rudely by this Braves squad in his season opener. Sure, that 6-run, 6-hit outing was an outlier but I mentioned in yesterday’s handicap that this team is hitting right-handed pitching very well this season. While Fedde has pitched decently since getting blown up by the Braves, I still have him as a mid-to-high 4.00s FIP pitcher with a very good cutter. Despite this Atlanta lineup generally not being great against cutters, Fedde must dial in his command to avoid issuing free base runners and creating disastrous scenarios. While I see the Nationals doing the lion’s share of scoring today as a live dog, both teams should contribute to the scoreboard with favorable pitching matchups from start to finish.
WAGER: Game Total Over 8.5 (-110)
Around the Horn
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