Let’s call a spade a spade – I’ve fallen back in a small slump with my featured handicaps. At least there was no sweating it last night as I was deep asleep while the Blue Jays coughed up a lead to the A’s in the bottom of the 5th. So I certainly appreciate you guys coming back to check out these features despite the results failing to manifest so far this season. But this is my favorite sport to handicap and I have plenty of love for the game – so l’m still feeling positive with the MLB Morning Breakdown for 5-4-2021.
Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals (+115)
The Tuesday MLB slate was a tricky one for me to tackle last night. Chicago and Colorado are thrown into doubleheader situations due to Monday rainouts. Several games did not have pitchers listed, leaving me with just a handful of “known quantity” situations that felt right to break down. And one of those is an intriguing NL East showdown between a pair of teams heading in different directions. Washington sits atop the division by a slim half-game margin, while Atlanta teeters just a half game above the basement. The former is rolling with a four-game winning streak while the latter looks to rebound from an opposite four-game skid.
I can sympathize with the Atlanta Braves right now, having dropped a couple in a row myself. But the Braves can hang their hat on the fact that this lineup is starting to round into form. Of course, that’s what I said yesterday morning about the Blue Jays before they took the 5-4 L. Outside of their massive struggles against southpaws this season (.174/.240/.323; 54 wRC+), Atlanta has produced slightly above league average against righties. Granted, a 103 wRC+ and .238/.324/.427 is nothing near where this club wants to be. But when the reigning NL MVP is slashing just .216/.344/.451, the question becomes a matter of when Freeman will kick his act into the next gear.
Atlanta’s recent awakening at the plate has even left Freddie behind in the dust. In the prior seven day period, he still lags most of his teammates with a pedestrian .696 OPS and 90 wRC+. During that same time, however, we’ve seen Marcell Ozuna’s bat start to come alive while their young core of Ronald Acuna, Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley could very well be turning the corner:
Atlanta Braves Hitters, Last 7 Days
| OPS | wRC+ | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Acuna | .886 | 125 | 2 |
| Albies | 1.263 | 232 | 2 |
| Riley | 1.327 | 258 | 1 |
| Ozuna | .778 | 106 | 2 |
Washington has achieved a nearly-opposite fate with their lefty/righty splits as compared to Atlanta. They have mashed lefties alongside the best teams in the league but sit at or near the bottom in many offensive categories when facing right-handed pitching. Their 76 wRC+ and .234/.295/.354 slash line leaves a lot to be desired, especially with Juan Soto on the shelf. But the Nats have received improved production this past week from guys like Trea Turner (230 wRC+) and Josh Harrison (247 wRC+). Plus they’ve gained a surprising source of offense in 33-year-old rookie Yadiel Hernandez. Hernandez has started their last four games versus righty starters, going 8-for-17 in those contests with 4 runs and 3 RBI.
The Bullpen Divide
Both bullpens are rested after the teams enjoyed their Monday off. And while neither unit has been an above-average group this season, Atlanta’s relievers are on a bit of a skid the last two weeks (5.71 ERA/5.35 FIP/5.33 xFIP). In that same timeframe, the Nats’ bullpen has been better though the metrics send a mixed message (2.48 ERA/4.08 FIP/4.62 xFIP). Lefty closer Brad Hand poses a big threat to the Braves in the late innings, though Washington has just one other lefty reliever in Sam Clay. This realistically gives Atlanta 7 innings of prime opportunity to score tonight.
On the flip side, the Braves’ back end is full of lefties. Setup men Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter as well as closer Will Smith have been their best-performing relievers to date, but feed right into the strength of the Washington lineup. That’s where a guy like Ryan Zimmerman can come off the bench and do damage. As well as Huascar Ynoa may pitch tonight, he has to hand the ball off at some point and things could take a bad turn for the Braves with several subpar right-handed options in relief.
H. Ynoa (R) vs. J. Ross (R)
Huascar Ynoa continues to impress with his newfound opportunity in Atlanta’s rotation. His 11.2 K/9 rate is phenomenal, especially when coupled with a paltry 1.98 BB/9 rate. Aside from a rough start in Chicago a couple weeks ago, Ynoa surrendered 2 or fewer runs in four of his five starts. That includes a solid 5-inning, 2-hit outing in Washington nearly one month ago. Despite Washington’s struggles against righties, they may be in a position to take advantage of Ynoa’s fastball that has graded out slightly to the negative this season. Trea Turner and Josh Harrison have feasted on them, while only Starlin Castro and bench player Jordy Mercer has found success against the slider – Ynoa’s money pitch. That slider must be on point tonight in order for Huascar to continue his success in light of his 51.5% hard hit rate and 15.2% barrel rate.
As for Joe Ross, he’s fared reasonably well outside of the disastrous 4-homer, 10-run affair at home against the Cardinals two weeks ago. Otherwise, Ross has yielded just 1 run in three other starts. So don’t let his 4.64 ERA or 5.73 FIP fool you. The 27-year-old also leans heavily on a fastball/slider combo, with the latter being more effective than the former this season. Both Ronald Acuna and Ehire Adrianza have been very productive against sliders, while nearly everyone in the Braves lineup other than Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna have hammered fastballs this season. Like his counterpart, Joe’s slider must be on point if he wants to survive the night.
Then again, Ross could be the guy that Atlanta’s struggling hitters need to face. Three Braves players active for tonight’s contest have had quite a bit of success against him…
- Freddie Freeman: 5-for-10, 2 HR, 1.743 OPS
- Marcell Ozuna: 3-for-9, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1.067 OPS
- Dansby Swanson: 3-for-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1.117 OPS
WAGER: Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110)
Truth be told, I’ve taken the wrong angle in several featured handicaps this season – and this is one that I knew I wanted to attack but wrestled with exactly how to do it last night. Lay -135 on Atlanta for the full game? Not with the bullpen situation. How about -145 for the first 5 innings? That’s a bit heavy on the juice for my liking, although that price may not scare off a lot of folks. So I arrived at a reasonably-priced way to support the surging Braves’ bats. Is it the smart play? We will find out tonight, but BOL with whatever you are betting today regardless. Go Braves!
Around the Horn
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