We all know the deal: three strikes and you’re out. Yesterday started with an extra-innings slugfest between Arizona and Colorado that fell just short for the +127 road dog. The Rockies owned the D-backs in that 4-game series, in which my two wagers on Arizona lost by a single run in extras. In fact, yesterday’s lead-off game on my card marked 5 one-run losses in 11 of my plays over the last 4 days.
Martin Perez was not up for the task against the Rays last night. This one was over in the 4th inning, all while the Rangers were not able to take advantage of a weak Jake Junis. These plus-money plays were fails and contributed to an 0-3 Thursday (-3.00 units).
Sox-Yankees was postponed due to rain, cancelling my +147 ticket. All indications point to Sale and Happ being tonight’s pitchers, which would point to another play on the Yankees per yesterday’s analysis of this game. However, as of 5:30 a.m. EST this game was not back on the board…but all indications I have seen online is that this will not open anywhere near +147, so this may end up being a pass for me.
With that said, I’m sitting on a lone ticket today that features a team that I have not bet on this season…until now.
San Fransisco Giants @ Baltimore Orioles
First Crack at the O’s: Orioles +115 (Look for F5)
It’s damn near June and I’ve finally found a spot to back Baltimore, which says quite a bit about San Fransisco. Drew Pomeranz gets the start after a pair of outings against the Diamondbacks. Pomeranz has struggled in his last 4 starts, in which he’s only gone 13 innings but gave up 17 earned runs. Arguably, the competition was significantly stronger in those starts when compared to this Baltimore club.
Pomeranz has a relatively good fly ball rate (34.8%), which is important because his 23.1% home run/fly ball ratio leaves a lot to be desired. Baltimore has picked up their run scoring efficiency in recent weeks, though this may be partially skewed by last weekend’s trip to Colorado where they scored just over 7 runs per game. Their run production was limited by the Tigers but had been reasonable against the Yankees last week. They will need their bats to put in work against Pomeranz because their bullpen is essentially a lock to give some back.
Andrew Cashner had a rough outing in Colorado but has otherwise been solid this season. He’s generated a 51.1% ground ball rate despite a 15.9% home run/fly ball ratio. He has yielded a home run in each of his last 5 starts so it is essential that he limits baserunners. In Cahsner’s last 8 starts, his WHIP has been greater than 1.20 only twice (at Colorado, at Chicago). This is the exact opposite of Pomeranz, who should give this Baltimore team some opportunities to build an important lead.
San Francisco snapped a 7-game losing streak last night against Miami, while Baltimore snags a win here and there without much streakiness. The Giants have topped out at 4 runs/game in their last 10, scoring 4 runs 3 times in that stretch. Cashner has a good chance of holding them to a couple runs and giving his team a legitimate chance to cash as a short home dog tonight.
