No complaints here with Day 2 of the MLB season. My Cincinnati Reds didn’t lose (they had the day off) and we managed to crank out a nice return on our pair of plays. Pablo Lopez and Ryan Yarbrough put on a pitching clinic in south Florida, delivering a 0-0 push on the first 5 inning bet with Miami. Then in the nightcap, San Francisco covered our team total bet with 6 runs by chasing Yusei Kikuchi and punishing the Mariners’ bullpen. So not a bad outcome considering that it’s a matter of a feeling this long season out one game at a time. Weekend baseball is back, baby, so let’s jump right into the MLB Morning Breakdown for 4-3-2021.
| Wins | Losses | Net Units | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-2-2021 | 1 | 0 (1 push) | +1.05 | +47.6% |
| SEASON | 3 | 1 | +1.81 | +38.9% |
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees (-170)
These teams battled to a low scoring 3-2 extra innings decision on Opening Day behind decent pitching performances from aces Hyun Jin Ryu and Gerrit Cole. It was a chilly, breezy day in the Bronx on Thursday, though fortunately this afternoon’s conditions will be slightly better. The skies should be clear with some wind out to right, although gusts are expected and could be tricky. So what are we going to see with a bunch of good hitters itching for a do over after their bats were suppressed in the opener?
Getting Back On Track
My handicap points to Toronto being a viable play at +138 or better. And this morning’s prices in the +140 and higher neighborhood support the dog. But I hesitate to fully back the Jays in this spot with the Yankees facing off against a righty starter. The baseline perspective is that I expect these to be two of the American League’s most productive offenses this season along with Houston, a notion that is far from a news flash for most of us baseball handicappers. However, there is a considerable gap in New York’s offensive productivity against lefties vs righties – the latter of which is their strong suit. That is partially to blame for the Yankees’ lackluster performance at the plate on Thursday against Ryu, a lefty. In head-scratching fashion, they managed to get 2 runs off of Toronto’s ace but struggled to crack the five righties out of the bullpen.
Toronto, on the other hand, tagged Gerrit Cole for a pair of runs and closed out the game in the 10th. Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk combined for 5 of the team’s 8 hits while hitters like Semien, Biggio, and Bichette all went hitless. Both teams’ bullpens are fully rested – though Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Justin Wilson are still unavailable for the Yankees. The bottom line in this one is that I expect both offenses to get back on track as a pair of mid-rotation arms take the mound in more favorable weather conditions. Both are capable of pushing across 5 runs each in this scenario, leaving one question to be answered: will either pitcher put the brakes on their bats?
R. Stripling (R) vs. C. Kluber (R)
That answer is still fuzzy regarding Ross Stripling’s Toronto debut. In fact, Stripling is the sole reason why I hesitated to back the Jays to win this game outright. The 31-year-old righty wrapped up the 2019 season in a multi-inning relief role with several short starts that did not last more than 3 innings. Yet Stripling succeeded in that role by delivering five great outings in his last six regular-season games. But in 2020, Ross never made it a full 5 innings after his first three starts of the short season. He gave up a home run in each of the first seven games, including four multi-homer performances.
Corey Kluber is less iffy to me, although he is still a wild card to a degree. After all, the two-time Cy Young Award winner is about to turn 35 years old and has missed nearly all of the last two seasons. As you would expect, Kluber’s pitch velocities have slowly declined over the last few seasons. And supposedly this persisted throughout Spring Training. Then again, this is not out of the ordinary for aging pitchers – and some of the league’s best have figured out how to thrive despite the realty check that Father Time inevitably delivers.
Kluber has been very good against righties throughout his distinguished career. Compared to when he has faced lefties, his batting average against is .026 points better and FIP is 0.65 points better. And guess what – this Blue Jays lineup is full of right-handed hitters. These splits were still present in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, but were lessened in his injury-shortened 2019 season. While I cannot throw all of his success out the window, I do not believe that he will be as sharp as he was even as late as 2018. Injuries and time will do that after all.
WAGER: Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 3.5 @ -124 (0.5 unit)
WAGER: Toronto Blue Jays Team Total Over 4 @ +105 (0.5 unit)
My conviction behind this Toronto offense is still strong, despite their 3-run output on Opening Day. They got to Cole and persisted despite the inhospitable conditions. But the combination of Ross Stripling and New York’s offensive prowess against righties has pushed me off of betting the Blue Jays to win. That said, I still put them in the 4-6 run range today as a less-potent Cory Kluber takes the mound for a 1:10 ET start. I’m playing things conservatively this early in the season, so I split a betting unit equally between Toronto’s team total over 3.5 and over 4 as this Blue Jays offense should be more dangerous at the plate compared to Thursday. Hell, both offenses should be clicking today against these starters. Best of luck today!
Around the Horn
Visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for free handicapping articles containing insights into our daily plays. It’s also home to our season previews and futures portfolio. Need a reminder? Follow our Twitter feed or subscribe below for email alerts. Stay connected and BOL!
