Chop ’em up again! Saturday’s 2-2 split was par for the course this week, which moves to 7-7 for a profit of +1.16 units. Spoiler alert: I’ve got 2 tickets for Sunday’s MLB action and I would not be surprised at all if I get another split. But we’re playing for a strong finish with a couple of big pitching discrepancies.
Miami followed up their beatdown of the Mets on Friday with a total shutdown of their offense. Lopez was able to frustrate a flaky NY offense and my -126 lay went down the tubes. I must admit that the Mets are a team that I have not been able to play correctly this season…so big note to self. Steven Strasburg was absolutely dominant against the Cubs, pitching 8 great innings before turning it over to Washington’s only good reliever, Sean Doolittle. Took the loss in that one, but I am far from done with this series.
The bright spots were headlined by the Cincinnati Reds and their payback game, as they returned the shutout favor from Friday night and delivered a +140 win. Other than the Winker solo shot, the Reds scored most of their runs in a wacky 3rd inning. Those proved to be icing on the cake as the pitching staff befuddled a potent LA lineup that couldn’t take advantage of the little opportunities they had. LA’s “other” team held on to cover the run line despite an 8th inning gag job by the bullpen. The Angels tacked on an insurance run in the bottom half and then nailed it down in the 9th against Kansas City.
My game flow handicapping model continues to produce since late April now that we are looking at reliable team data and trends along with a solid body of work for starters. I’ve also tightened up my betting (though more tightening wouldn’t hurt), specifically by reducing the quantity of bets. Avoiding games where the starter doesn’t have a track record for this season limits the slate of games, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for my approach to betting the MLB. I’ve also tinkered with how I integrate “current form” data into my team profiles and that appears to be a good improvement over how it’s been addressed in past years. The true test will come in July, when I have traditionally had a tough adjustment to some teams as they change their complexion from what their full-season metrics say.
Enough about that, let’s find some winners…
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Fade Foltynewicz: Brewers RL +125
Brandon Woodruff attempts to quiet the hot Altanta bats and salvage a win from the Braves before Milwaukee leaves town. They’ve lost their last 2 games against the Braves, which is disappointing considering that they came into town having won 3 in a row against Philadelphia. Milwaukee’s bullpen has been embarrassed by the Braves this weekend as they were pummeled on Friday and walked-off last night. Woodruff has been very solid, especially in his last 4 starts, and has the potential to keep the game in check while the Brewers offense does their thing against Foltynewicz. Their offense consistently produces runs and should have no lack of opportunities this afternoon.
Mike Foltynewicz has been bad since coming off the IL. There is a decent chance that he will snap out of this funk at some point since he has shown to be a solid rotation man in previous seasons. I’m betting that it will not be today, especially against these hitters. Foltynewicz has given up 8 walks and 8 home runs in 21.1 innings, portending that the Braves offense will need another explosive output to keep pace. The Brewers bullpen has been decent this season but their good side has not been on display this weekend. A late-game Braves comeback is entirely possible though I believe the play against Foltynewicz is strong.
Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals
Fade Hellickson: Cubs RL +120
For the third day in a row, I am backing the Cubs in D.C. and most of the game handicapping still remains true. I give the Nationals offense an uptick for their continued improvement but certainly haven’t changed their bullpen ratings. It’s all about starting pitching in Sunday’s standalone game. Kyle Hendricks has been strong ever since he stumbled in Arizona, having given up only 1 run across 25 innings in his last 3 starts. I cannot expect 8 innings out of him against a progressing Nats offense, but 6-7 innings of solid work should take care of business with a good bullpen behind him.
Jeremy Hellickson has been downright bad in his 4 starts surrounding the one game where he was strong against Philadelphia. Despite being a soft contact guy, he puts a lot of guys on base and the Cubs have enough consistent hitting to convert those runners to runs. His 17 walks and 43 hits over 36 innings are not conducive to keeping his team in the game. Hellickson will be lucky to get through the 5th inning so the Washington bullpen will have plenty of time to do their thing. As with any individual game, anything goes but the percentages point to the Cubs putting the beatdown on the Nationals pitching tonight.
