Week 6 wrapped up Sunday with a thud (0-2, -2.05 units), but I won’t complain after churning out another weekly profit. The 10-9 week had promise going into the weekend, yet I squeezed out a modest 1.20-unit win despite a disappointing finish. Getting some momentum rolling over the last few weeks is good because mid-April was not pretty.
As mentioned previously, my expected pace for an entire MLB season is a range of 1.0 – 1.5 units/week with 1.25 as the mid-point. Accounting for 25 weeks and my current net of +1.46 units (yes, it’s paltry right now), I need to clear an average of 1.57 units/week to meet the mid-point of the goal range. That’s an eyelash higher than my expected forward pace was at the end of week 5.
It’s Monday and I’ve gotta get to the office, so without further delay…
Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers
After watching the Tigers make the Twins look like anything but the winningest team in the MLB yesterday, I had to triple-check my handicapping on this game. Daniel Norris did his best Matthew Boyd impression in that game, keeping the Minnesota hitters off-balance and swinging at all kinds of junk. Boyd gets the nod tonight as the Tigers return home to Comerica Park. He’s been absolutely fantastic for this young Detroit club and it’s difficult to imagine that he won’t give them a quality start against the AL West leader. They come off of a 2-2 split with the Central leader and are 5-5 in their last 10 games.
Brad Peacock’s tenure in the rotation this season has been mostly good with a couple of rough outings against the Twins. We know there is a wide chasm between the Tigers and Twins lineups so I have to lean towards a decent outing for the Houston starter. Their bullpen got somewhat of a rest yesterday in a blowout, throwing their bottom-rank relievers at the end their series finale vs. Texas. Adjustments have been made for Altuve’s absence but I am still high on this offense that put up 4 or more runs in 7 of their last 10 games.
The disparities between these teams are fairly clear. Houston has a +69 run differential as opposed to Detroit’s -49. The Astros offense has been one of the most efficient run-producing teams recently, while the Tigers have struggled to provide any offensive consistency. As with many matchups, this game will most likely be dictated by the starting pitchers. Boyd will have his hands full with this relentless Houston offense and a team that knows how to win. They’ve rattled off 5 wins in a row during an 8-1 streak in which their offense has outscored their opponents by 2 or more runs in all 8 wins. Boyd vs. the Astros…who prevails?
