It’s a story that only made sense in the year 2020. While the Cardinals were stuck at home due to COVID-related issues, the Chicago Cubs grew an early lead in the NL Central. They slogged their way to the division title as St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee finished no better than two games above .500. The Central was devoid of offense, with every team except Chicago finishing in the bottom five in the majors for run production. Despite this mediocrity, the Reds and Brewers did just enough to claim both of the NL Wild Card berths and get four of the division’s five teams into the postseason. Like the AL Central though, none of the four teams advanced out of the first round. So with everything up in the air, who can we expect to rise above in the 2021 NL Central?
2020 Division Winner: Chicago Cubs
2020 NL Central Standings
- Chicago Cubs (34-26)
- St. Louis Cardinals (30-28)
- Cincinnati Reds (31-29)
- Milwaukee Brewers (29-31)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (19-41)
Chicago Cubs 2021 Win Total: Open 79.5, Now 78.5
2020 Result: Over 32.5 (34-26)
Chicago achieved a pair of key goals for “new” manager David Ross – win the NL Central and return to the postseason. Most of the Cubs core grew accustomed to being a playoff contender since their resurgence under former manager Joe Maddon. The Cubbies have missed the playoffs just once since their 2015 comeback and subsequent World Series Championship. So last season was clearly a success for the most part after a changing of the guard in the dugout.
You can count on a Cubs lineup full of hitters like Happ, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber and Baez to overpower their opponents, right? Well, not so much in 2020. Chicago’s 91 wRC+ represented bottom-third production that was essentially on par with the sputtering offenses of the Reds and Brewers. Unfortunately, their 265 runs scored and +25 run differential was anemic as it got amongst the six division winners.
On the bright side, however, their offense walked a ton and three players – Happ, Rizzo, and Schwarber – hit double-digit homers to help propel the Cubs to an NL Central title. But the league’s third-highest strikeout rate took a lot of wind out of their sails. Switch hitter Ian Happ personified the offense as a whole by slugging .505 while striking out 27.3% of the time. Oddly enough, it was the crafty 30-something Jason Heyward who picked up a ton of slack. Heyward put up his highest OBP (.392) and wRC+ (130) since his rookie season, in part due to a career-high walk rate. The veteran outfielder came up huge for the Cubbies but this club knows that a 2021 NL Central title defense requires all hands on deck.
Scratching Out Wins
The Cubs starting pitchers accounted for 25 wins, which was tops in the majors. Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks led the charge with a combined 14 wins, though Darvish’s 8-3 record stole the show. In fact, Yu delivered career-best walk and home run rates with an astounding 2.01 ERA/2.23 FIP. And Hendricks excelled in his role as the rotation’s #2 without Darvish’s dominant strikeout numbers. This 1-2 punch was one of the league’s best headlining duos. Unfortunately, things really dropped off from there.
Jose Quintana made just one start between recovering from his offseason thumb injury and suffering a lat strain. As misfortune would have it, both Quintana and Tyler Chatwood went down in the first week of September. Although Chatwood’s role was diminished after a brutal outing at Kansas City, he was a veteran arm that could help stave off the bigger talent vacuum below Darvish and Hendricks. A prime example is Alec Mills, who posted three phenomenal zero-run outings of 6 innings or more – including a complete game no-hitter at Milwaukee – but blew up for 3 or more runs in seven of his eleven starts.
Waiting in the wings was a serviceable bullpen that finished the season in the middle of the pack. Chicago’s relief unit walked the tightrope a bit too often by allowing walks and home runs at undependable rates. And you know how that works out. Veteran Craig Kimbrel represented this good on one hand, bad on the other bullpen with an insane 16.43 K/9 rate and equally unimpressive 7.04 BB/9. Fortunately, Rowan Wick and Jeremy Jeffress smoothed things out with 12 saves of their own.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 77 – 81
Cubs Nation should be happy that the NL Central is still wide open for the taking. Unfortunately, the front office appeared to be more interested in shedding payroll than regaining their recent glory. After all, Chicago’s rotation went from top third to bottom third in a hurry as Darvish, Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood are now out. This team appeared to signal that they cashed in their chips for the 2021 season, except for a couple notable one-year deals with outfielder Joc Pederson and pitcher Trevor Williams. Are the Cubs playing a backseat role or pivoting to the belief that the depleted NL Central can be won with a smaller payroll?
Make no mistake, the Cubs have signed a ton of free-agents, but there isn’t much name value there. Instead of a “Who’s who?”, this list reads more like a “Who’s that?”
2021 Chicago Cubs: A Train Wreck in the Making – Ken Allison, OvertimeHeroics.net – February 1, 2021
Rotation
Losing your ace is rarely, if ever, a good thing. And when your ace is Yu Darvish, that can mean the evaporation of 4-5 wins in a full season. The Cubs swapped him out for former NL Central foe Zach Davies in one of San Diego’s headlining offseason moves. On the Chicago side of the ledger, this salary dump still yielded a really good starter. Davies is statistically half the pitcher of Darvish if you believe that Zach’s .249 BABIP in 2020 suggests a step down this season.
Management’s decision to let John Lester walk wasn’t too difficult since the aging veteran is a shell of his former self. Additionally, Tyler Chatwood’s diminished role last season and Jose Quintana’s absence from nearly all of 2020 do not affect my baseline ratings for the rotation’s year-over-year changes. However, the Cubs will really miss Quintana’s (typical) ability to eat 170+ innings with a sub-4.00 FIP. And when your bullpen isn’t lights out, an added workload can equal trouble.
Adding It All Up
The loss of Darvish and Quintana creates a huge opportunity for Cubs lifer Kyle Hendricks who is now the staff ace. He got a taste of that role as their 2020 Opening Day starter – except this season, he’s carrying the load for a full season. Although Kyle is now 31 years old, Statcast data says his exit velocity and hard hit ball rate are fairly stable. So I expect Hendricks and Davies to provide upwards of 4 WAR together. But still, Chicago’s top starters are soft-tossing contact pitchers that don’t quite fit the mold of today’s swing-for-the-fences offenses. Good thing the Cubs are in a division full of anemic offenses!
This uninspiring 1-2 punch makes the Jake Arrieta signing even more of a gamble. But at least the Cubs get him back for just $6M, as opposed to his previous contract of $25M/year. In reality, his fall from elite status started two years before he left for Philly. And at 35-years-old, it is understandable that he is losing pitch velocity and effectiveness. The reality is that Arrieta and Alec Mills are just a 1+ WAR mid-rotation duo in front of the presumable backend starter Trevor Williams. Chicago’s gamble on Trevor’s rebound is just that, especially coming off of a 6+ FIP year.
Bullpen
The Cubs bullpen lost two of their most productive relievers Jeremy Jeffress and Ryan Tepera in the offesason. This duo carried this unit last season along with Rowan Wick, who may not be ready for Opening Day. Jeffress dodged a ton of bullets last year anyways. Despite having the lowest K/BB rate in the Chicago bullpen, his .161 BABIP created a huge 1.54 ERA/4.09 FIP disparity. So there is a reasonable case for Jeffress to come crashing back to earth this season anyhow.
Late game success all comes down to closer Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Chafin, and Rowan Wick to polish off close games. Below these three is a cast of league replacement-level characters who could overachieve – or they could struggle to finish off games. My expectations are middle of the road though. Brandon Workman could be a cheap, pleasant surprise after a terrible half-season in Philly. But when it comes to Kimbrel, I’m seeing a sub 4.00-ERA/FIP around 1 WAR. That would be a noticeable improvement over his first 36 innings pitched as a Cub. And that’s huge because this group as a whole could struggle without guys like Kimbrel and Chafin coming up big.
Position Players
Chicago’s biggest change amongst position players came out of left field. Literally. Slugger Kyle Schwarber said goodbye to the Windy City, while Joc Pederson said hello to the tune of $7M. As per ownership’s cost cutting plan, Joc’s price came in $3M less than what Kyle accepted from Washington. Neither guy has consistently offered a decent glove, so the comp essentially comes down to whether Pederson hits .240 and smacks close to 30 homers. That would be a vast improvement after slashing just .190/.285/.397 last season. However, a platoon role could diminish his value even more – something that is entirely possible given his historical struggles against lefties. If Joc returns to his typical form and is implemented properly, he’s worth an extra win over Schwarber’s last season with Chicago.
Pederson fits right into a Cubs lineup that is full of .240-.260 hitters with plenty of power. Don’t be surprised if Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Joc Pederson all smash 20+ homers this season. Both Chicago corner infielders, Bryant and Rizzo, come off of their worst MLB seasons at the plate but are projected to get back in the 120 wRC+ range where they belong. Likewise, shortstop Javier Baez and centerfielder Ian Happ should converge upon more realistic expectations in 2021. Happ had a monster 12-homer, 132 wRC+ season and Baez’s ugly .203, 57 wRC+ campaign should settle out as outliers along their career trajectories. I have to say the same thing for 31-year-old right fielder Jason Heyward, whose best season at the plate in Chicago is unlikely to be repeated.
Making Their Mark in the Field
In short, I expect this offense to tick down some from last year. Their defense, on the other hand, should still be solid. Austin Romine comes in to back up Willson Contreras behind the plate for the departed Victor Caratini, who was sent to San Diego in the Darvish deal. That doesn’t necessarily move the needle for this club, though the transition at second base from Jason Kipnis to Nico Hoerner very well could. Hoerner burst onto the scene in 2019, then suffered a humbling season offensively while splitting time with Kip. His 19% strikeout rate and .222/.312/.259 slash line really left a lot to be desired.
As with most young players, the reality for next season is probably somewhere in between his huge debut and sophomore letdown. The Cubs should be happy with a .260 season with a wRC+ pushing 90 because the kid can play really good defense. Hoerner and Baez are stout up the middle, and should help keep this unit well above average in the field. At least Chicago has a fairly stable lineup to support a pitching staff in transition. And that should lead to more of the same in 2021 – an average offense with a very good defense. However, this Cubs team will only go as far as its pitching will let them. Or maybe it’s more a matter of which team in the NL Central does enough to overtake them…
St. Louis Cardinals 2021 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 86.5
2020 Result: Under 31.5 (30-28)
2020 was a bizarre year for nearly everyone on the planet. But in the MLB, no team felt the COVID-19 impacts more than the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals made it five games into the season before the virus kept them off the field for over two weeks. Still, manager Mike Shildt and their veteran players maintained an even keel throughout the season. At no point were the Cards more than two games above or below .500. Ultimately, they battled hard enough to finish on top of the division’s logjam behind Chicago and earn a postseason berth.
My projection for the Redbirds to be an above-.500 team was in the ballpark at least. This expectation was not backed by my money – the key determinant of a strong opinion – primarily due to too many questions with their lineup. The big question during spring training was just how St. Louis would improve offensively without any splash moves to beef up the roster:
What do you do to improve a team that appears to have righted the ship? Not much, apparently. The Athletic’s Mark Saxon asks a damn good question: “Are the Cardinals being irrational by expecting their offense to improve internally?” Slugger Marcell Ozuna and utility player Jose Martinez are gone and the front office appears to be committed to Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, and company upping their production. Maybe not the worst idea, but certainly a risky one as the Central is arguably becoming more competitive, with a projected four viable teams.
2020 MLB Season Win Totals: NL Central – BetCrushers.com – March 2, 2020
The Cardinals had one of the best defenses in the league for the second year in a row. But their offensive production was subpar. Only Paul Goldschmidt hit above .300 or had an OBP greater than .400 (.304/.417/.466). In fact, just three Redbirds – Goldy, Harrison Bader, and Brad Miller – finished the season with wRC+ north of 100. The front office’s complacency in letting veterans like Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, and Yadier Molina play such large roles had a double-edged sword effect as their years of being dual-threat players continued to slip away. This trifecta was a cornerstone of the Redbirds’ excellent defense, but their negative effects at the plate were tough to shake off.
Tough Times on the Mound
The Cardinals felt the brunt of COVID-related setbacks, and their rotation felt the largest pinch of all. Missing 20% of the season and cramming in those games via eleven double header days required Shildt and his starting pitchers to do a delicate dance. They essentially needed to be on top of their game in each outing – a tough ask for this unestablished group. 2019 Cy Young Award candidate Jack Flaherty gave up 3 or more runs in three of his nine starts, including a 9-run barrage at Milwaukee in mid-September. But to his credit, there is a strong chance that we will look back at Flaherty’s 2020 season and see it as nothing more than a blip in a long MLB career.
St. Louis’ 25-year-old ace posted a 10+ K/9 figure for the third season in a row, despite slipping a touch with his home run rate. John LaRue made a strong case for Flaherty last fall by showing that his velocity and spin rate were very similar to his 2019 breakout season. Sure, the rough outing in Milwaukee skewed his season-long metrics – but his fundamental characteristics still translate to brighter days ahead. Fortunately, Adam Wainwright was as good as he’s been in recent years, posting a 3.15 ERA/4.11 FIP in 10 starts. And KBO product Kwang Hyun Kim turned out to be an excellent snag. Kim’s impressive 38.0-inning MLB debut helped the Cardinals rotation keep its head above water.
St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen, 2014-2020
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIP | 4.63 | 4.01 | 4.27 | 3.93 | 3.83 | 3.50 | 3.61 |
| WHIP | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.47 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| HR/9 | 1.30 | 1.07 | 0.95 | 1.08 | 0.98 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| BB/9 | 4.52 | 3.77 | 4.34 | 3.07 | 3.33 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Admittedly, my largest overestimation of St. Louis’ strengths was their bullpen. They were one of the least-worked relief units in the majors, in part due to a compressed schedule with eleven doubleheaders. These 22 seven-inning games alleviated some of the bullpen’s workload, which probably turned out to be a net positive for the Cardinals. Even though St. Louis’ relievers had a top-third ERA (4.00) and a WHIP on par with previous seasons, they were bottom-third in both walk and home run rates. Their uncharacteristic 4+ BB/9 rate plays a big part in the ERA/FIP discrepancy, much like it did in 2018.
In addition to a reduced dependency on the bullpen, two additional factors helped minimize the damage that excessive walks and homers can create. The Cardinals relievers had the lowest BABIP in the league (.251) and only the Dodgers and Athletics topped their .208 average against. Did this unit earn its 4.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, or were they beneficiaries of fortunate outcomes? This is the type of question that weighs heavily on how to approach St. Louis’ bullpen in 2021.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 83 – 87
Sometimes one move is all it takes to push a club into the forefront. And that could be all it takes to get St. Louis back atop the NL Central. The move was January’s marquee trade for 5x All Star Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals’ status in a division full of parity got a huge bump after trading a handful of marginal prospects to Colorado for the multi-talented third baseman. General manager Mike Girsch fleeced the Rockies for their best player and kickstarted the lineup. Now this signing leaves one big question – do the Cardinals have enough to leapfrog the Cubs?
Position Players
What do you do when your faithful third baseman has dropped off the map? Shell out the dough and buy the best man at that position. Matt Carpenter is a Cardinals lifer who burst onto the scene eight years ago and raked nearly every year until 2019. That’s when the wheels started to come off – after all, the guy is 35 years old. So the Arenado acquisition allows Carpenter to take a backseat role at this critical juncture. One concern, however, is Nolan’s nagging left shoulder injury that held last season’s offensive production to a career-low 76 wRC+. Yet he still saved 15 runs in the shortened season, so you know his defense will be on point.
And defense is one of St. Louis’ biggest strengths. Losing Kolten Wong to free agency could have been worse if Tommy Edman wasn’t there to plug in at second. The kid has played everywhere for the Cardinals – and he’s done it well. In fact, his most impressive work came in just over 200 innings at second base in 2019. He’s a .260-ish hitter with some pop, which is essentially what Wong brought to the table. Round out this STL infield with an excellent fielding shortstop in Paul DeJong and – last, but certainly not least – the elite-hitting Paul Goldschmidt at first.
Despite the offseason suspense regarding to his future, 17-year veteran backstop Yadier Molina is back on a one-year deal. Sure, he’s been reduced to a .250 hitter without much power but his defense and leadership are very tough to replace. Yadi’s return is impactful for the simple fact that 26-year-old Andrew Knizner was the Cardinals “plan b”. And with only 156 big-league innings behind the plate, that experience gap would have created the infield’s lone defensive weak spot.
Questions in the Outfield
Point blank, the Cardinals outfield has struggled to generate any measurable offensive production since Marcell Ozuna left town. So the team cut bait with Dexter Fowler whose accelerated decline had somehow made him expendable. And that’s saying a lot considering St. Louis’ talent vacuum in the outfield. Unfortunately, Shildt is hamstrung by a lack of truly effective options for replacing him in right field. Tyler O’Neill stands to benefit from Fowler’s departure and actually improve their stellar defense. Plus, Tyler offers a little bit more power at the plate.
So what’s the good news? Center fielder Harrison Bader is maturing into an excellent defender with below-average hitting attributes. Bader topped out with a career-high 32.0% strikeout rate last season, which is a bad combination with a .230 batting average and little power. But defense is what makes him truly valuable to the Redbirds – something that should sharpen up after an average season. And we get to see what 22-year-old Dylan Carlson comes back with after his MLB debut. Look at him as a Tyler O’Neill with greater upside. The switch hitter struggled at the plate against big-league pitching (.200/.252/.364), though most reliable projections put him close to a 100 wRC+ in 2021.
Rotation
I’m on board with projections calling for a 3-WAR season from ace Jack Flaherty. 2019’s second half may have been a fluke as much as his bumbled 2020 season was. This is a classic “middle ground” scenario – which seems like a cop out – in which Jack has a sub-4.00 FIP and strikes out 200 batters. That’s damn good, though great is certainly attainable for this kid. And, to a degree, he’s going to need to be great because this team still has a few questions with their rotation. Fortunately, one of those may have been answered when the club re-signed 39-year-old Adam Wainwright:
With Jack Flaherty slumping in 2020, Wainwright was the team’s most valuable pitcher and one of the primary reasons the Cardinals were able to sneak into the playoffs toward the back of the inflated 16-team field. In 10 starts, his 3.15 ERA was his best figure in a full season since 2014. Not only did he pitch well, but he also pitched deep into games, with his 6.6 innings per game being practically Old Hoss Radbourn-esque by modern standards. That was enough for third among qualifying pitchers behind only Kyle Hendricks and Trevor Bauer.
Adam Wainwright Returns to St. Louis – Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs.com – January 29, 2021
One of Wainwright’s strongest qualities is how deep he goes into games. But just how many games will he play in? At a minimum, he’s a beloved teammate – well, maybe not with the flat earth crowd – that gives his club a big lift by filling an important mid rotation slot. And that’s something this rotation desperately needs. The Cardinals staff has suffered some tough injuries lately, including Tommy John surgery for Dakota Hudson. On that note, Miles Mikolas is close to getting healthy after forearm issues. He’s been so good for this club and him giving 20+ starts this year is exactly what they need. Otherwise, things could get ugly for this group if Carlos Martinez doesn’t snap out of his funk.
Counting on Kim
Whether or not Cardinals management has explicitly said it, they’re relying heavily on another great season from Kwang Hyun Kim. The 32-year-old parlayed a prolific KBO career into a highly-impressive MLB debut last season. Despite an unsustainable .217 BABIP, Kim posted a 3.88 FIP and a 3-0 record. Now he’s expected to pitch a full season in the MLB – and the Redbirds need every start they can get out of him. With Waino pushing 40 years of age and the back end of the rotation iffy, Kim’s performance could very well be a barometer of this group’s success. Fortunately for St. Louis, my go-to projections peg his 2021 FIP in the mid-4s. That’s good enough to help stabilize the Cardinals rotation with a WAR just under 2.0.
Bullpen
St. Louis presents a bullpen that is nearly identical to the 2020 version except for one key addition. Jordan Hicks is back in the fold. The 24-year-old fireballer missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Considering that the kid was averaging over 100 mph with his fastball and sinker, it all comes down to the success of his rehab. And his rehab looks to be right on schedule. Jordan’s return bolsters a solid, yet average, relief unit with three other pitchers who have the chops to be the Cardinals’ closer.
- Alex Reyes – a strikeout threat (2020: 12.36 K/9) who struggles with walks at times (career: 5.57 BB/9).
- Giovanny Gallegos – a workhorse who has been on point since coming to St. Louis in 2018 (2.49 ERA/2.84 FIP, 2.2 WAR).
- Andrew Miller – a 35-year-old veteran with a career sub-4.00 ERA & FIP.
St. Louis’ bullpen is not spectacular when compared to the Yankees, Padres, Rays, or even White Sox. Simply stated, this unit is deep with relievers that many teams would like to have on their side. And below their big four are guys like John Gant, Ryan Helsley, and Tyler Webb who can eat some innings and keep things respectable. Nothing sexy, just solid.
Wager: NL Central Champs +250 (bet 1/29/21 – now STALE)
My intent behind this position is based on two principles: the NL Central is full of flawed teams, and Nolan Arenado tilts the scales significantly. It’s not my style to post stale numbers, but our regular website visitors could see our futures portfolio grow before our divisional previews were published. The late-January rumors of Arenado coming to St. Louis was my buy trigger for the Redbirds to be my favorite to win the division. He gets them closer to being an average offense while juicing up an already formidable defense. Granted, I almost fell for this team last year, so here’s to a fresh start for the Cardinals.
An alternative way to back the Cardinals is via their season win total, which still sits at 86.5. Unfortunately, I think any win total over 85 in the NL Central is asking for trouble. I’ve revisited my projections for each team in this division and struggle to find a compelling case for any team threatening 90-win territory.
Cincinnati Reds 2021 Win Total: Open 82.5, Now 82.5
2020 Win Total: Under 31.5 (31-29)
The 2020 Cincinnati Reds gave off every impression of an underperformer, especially at the plate. This held true until about two weeks before the season’s end when the Reds finally tied together strong pitching performances with enough offensive production to win 11 of their last 15 games. Cincy’s well-timed surge propelled them into a Wild Card series against the big bats of the Atlanta Braves. Unfortunately for Redlegs fans like myself, the club was shut out over 22 innings in the two-game series. Trevor Bauer’s game one duel with Max Fried was a performance for the ages (7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 12 K, 0 R), ultimately requiring 13 innings for the Braves to come out victorious. Bauer’s performance, however, helped cement his spot in baseball history as the 2020 NL Cy Young Award Winner – the club’s first ever recipient of this illustrious award.
Cincinnati’s futility at the plate in the playoffs summed up the season as a whole. The late surge needed to make the playoffs resulted from timely hitting in conjunction with oppressive pitching. Prior to the final weeks of the season, the offense was anemic even with newcomers Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. Plus, COVID testing complications delivered a false start to the lineup as Moustakas and outfielder Nick Senzel missed several key games early in the season.
“If you look at our lineup, unfortunately with some of these (expletive) protocols, you know, Moose and Senzel both have negative tests, but they are unable to play until Thursday,” Castellanos said. “That’s obviously been a big letdown because both of them are big parts of our lineup.”
Cincinnati Enquirer – July 30, 2020
Regardless of this snafu, the Reds’ offense never got out of second gear. Senzel, whose 2019 season ended with shoulder surgery, missed a month for undisclosed reasons as the rest of the lineup failed to launch. Only Jesse Winker cracked the .250 batting average plateau, slashing .255/.388/.544. Although the veteran triumvirate of Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, and Nicholas Castellanos combined for 40 homers, they did it without much success otherwise – Votto’s paltry .226 batting average was the highest of the three.
Uno, Dos, Adios
My conservative outlook for the 2020 season was about on par with their 31-29 record, almost singlehandedly due to the significant gains made by their rotation. Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray, and Luis Castillo headlined this unit that carried the Reds to the postseason for the first time in seven years. These three combined for a stifling 261 strikeouts in 199 innings. Throw righty Tyler Mahle in the mix and this collection of four starters topped out at 1.23 WHIP (Castillo), 1.11 HR/9 (Bauer), and 3.64 FIP (Mahle). The third-year starter Mahle made a name for himself with career-best strikeout and home run rates, WHIP, and FIP.
Cincy’s bullpen worked the third-least innings in the MLB (192.2) yet their 1.54 HR/9 rate was abysmal. So they didn’t get rocked as frequently as Philly’s relievers, but this group was anything but lock-down. The Reds relief unit finished the season around league average in key metrics like WHIP, FIP, and strand rate. Unfortunately, the lack of run support put closer Raisel Iglesias and his crew behind the eight ball way too often. And his main setup men Amir Garrett and Michael Lorenzen disappointed in a season when they absolutely needed to be on point. Lorenzen’s four multi-run outings in 16 relief appearances left a lot to be desired, as he struggled at key times to keep opponents off the base paths. Sure, Garrett finished the season with a 2.45 ERA, but is a 100% strand rate and a .188 BABIP realistic in the long run?
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 72 – 76
Cincinnati’s run – as short lived as it was – ended abruptly this offseason. Granted, there was little doubt that Trevor Bauer would wave goodbye to the Queen City in free agency. But the lack of offseason moves led to FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski saying that “Cincinnati’s winter has been a disaster“. They shoved their chips all in for 2019 and 2020, and now have very little to show for it. They can’t be waving the white flag for 2021, can they?
Rotation
You almost got the impression that once Bauer left in free agency, his cohorts Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo would be on the trading block. As of March 10th, both of these talented pitchers are still with the Reds. That’s huge, considering that this duo is a big reason why Cincy is pegged as a .500 team. Sonny Gray has been phenomenal in the Queen City after leaving New York humbled. In fact, his pair of 4+ WAR (2020 full-season equivalent) seasons were overshadowed only by his own teammates. Castillo’s 2019 breakout season and Bauer’s Cy Young campaign swept Sonny’s work under the rug two years in a row. But the 31-year-old’s tenure here has produced career best FIP and WAR outside of his 2.70-FIP rookie season in Oakland.
This year, Luis Castillo is projected to break the 4 WAR plateau once again. His four-pitch arsenal continues to gain effectiveness and velocity, yielding a 50%+ ground ball rate and plenty of strikeouts. Below the 7+ WAR pair of Castillo and Gray, however, the Redlegs turn to a mixed bag to round out their rotation. Projected #3 Tyler Mahle has been quietly growing into a bona fide starting pitcher and is now called upon to carry a heavier load. If there’s any knock against Mahle though, it’s his tendency to give up the long ball.
Questions At the Bottom
Unfortunately, 34-year-old Wade Miley struggled in his start to the 2020 season. Walks were his bugaboo in his first three starts, then he fared much better in a diminished role. I can only imagine that the leash will be longer on Miley now that the Reds are down a top-end starter. But it appears that the final slot in Cincy’s rotation is still up for grabs. Will it be filled by the athletic Michael Lorenzen or reliever Tejay Antone after his impressive rookie campaign? Either guy has the stuff to be a 1+ WAR contributor in some sort of hybrid bullpen/rotation role, helping to keep this group marginally better than the rest of the NL Central teams.
Bullpen
The Reds also parted ways with their longest-tenured reliever, closer Raisel Iglesias, in a trade with the Angels for reliever Noe Ramirez. Iglesias had a backloaded contract that was ripe for unloading in this salary dump offseason. This opens the door for big lefty Amir Garrett to take the reigns and earn the closer role, especially after Archie Bradley left in free agency. Garrett’s fastball/slider generates a ton of strikeouts, though the jury is still out on his command.
And that uncertainly is a big reason why the Reds picked up veteran Sean Doolittle after a couple of rough seasons in Washington. The key concerns with Doolittle are injuries and a downtrend in velocity in recent years. Now he merges his 52.0% career fly ball rate – that was higher in 2019 and 2020 – with Great American Ballpark’s small dimensions. But the way I see things here in early March, there is a lot of personnel shuffling and undetermined roles with this unit. Word is, that’s the way that innovative pitching coach Derek Johnson likes it – even if they appear to be a below-average group.
Position Players
Was last year’s MLB-lowest .245 BABIP a sign of enough positive regression to pull this offense out of its funk? Personally, I would like to think so. At the core of this lineup are a group of .250-.260 hitters like Nicholas Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas, and 37-year-old Joey Votto. Votto’s patient approach at the plate has earned him a career 16.0% walk rate that holds true on an annual basis. His downside has been the gradual power loss since 2017 that has reduced him to a 110 wRC+ hitter. On the flip side, Votto should rebound from a career-low .235 BABIP season and get back to around .260 this year.
Unlike some teams with subpar offenses, the Reds have several power-hitting threats. Castellanos, Suarez, and Moustakas are 30+ home run hitters – especially at GAPB – that can do damage if their teammates get on base. That’s where guys like Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel need to deliver. Winker has bounced around the .500 slugging mark throughout his young career with a decent walk rate. I like the idea of him and his .380 OBP in the leadoff spot with veteran hitters behind him. This is a lineup that I would love to be more optimistic about – but until they put it all together, my outlook is for a continuation of 2020’s offensive production and decent fielding.
Plugging the Holes
Part of my skepticism with this team concerns two positions being decided this spring. One of those has been the subject of a lot of complaints this offseason when the club didn’t bring in a major league-caliber shortstop. And all signs point to 30-year-old Kyle Farmer getting the call out of Spring Training. Farmer’s defense does not look bad, though his bat leaves a lot to be desired. The .242/.297/.370 hitter is projected to deliver another 70s wRC+ that won’t solve Cincy’s offensive woes. In reality, Kyle is a stopgap player at this key position unless he develops into a stellar fielder.
Now that I think about it, there’s a chance – if the Reds decide to actually get the slightest bit creative – that the lack of a DH in the National League in 2021 actually unsqueezes Senzel, and lets his natural athleticism and versatility become an asset rather than an anchor.
Which Cincinnati Red gets squeezed most by the lack of a DH in the National League? – Wick Terrell, RedReporter.com – February 9, 2021
So can Nick Senzel stay healthy enough to play a full season for the Reds? He and Shogo Akiyama – a pair of 90-ish wRC+ hitters – are battling for the center fielder job this spring. Neither is truly a natural fit at this position, but either are Winker or Castellanos. They aren’t terrible fielders and the park is generally forgiving to fielders. Put this four-man outfield together and you’ve got a 4-WAR product that should be interesting to follow. At least for this Reds fan it will be.
WAGER: Under 82.5 Wins (bet 2/18/21)
I hate to be pessimistic about my team again, but I struggle to see Cincinnati finish with a winning record in 2021. Simply stated, none of my projected unit scores get them to the .500 mark. If there is any saving grace for the Reds, however, it is the low bar that the better teams in the division have set. The icing on the cake for this under position is the potential to ship Luis Castillo before the trade deadline. Their best pitcher is highly coveted and could leave in free agency after the season anyways. I would personally hate to see it but recognize that business comes first in professional baseball. Regardless of where my money is at, GO REDS!
Milwaukee Brewers 2021 Win Total: Open 82.5, Now 82.5
2020 Result: Under 30.5 (29-31)
The Brew Crew fell victim to the same mediocrity that ultimately defined the NL Central. Finishing right in an adjusted 78-win zone that I anticipated, Milwaukee snuck into the playoffs alongside Cincinnati as the National League Wild Cards. Unfortunately, their postseason ended early like the rest of the division. To our benefit, the Brewers narrowly missed their win total and cashed our rebooted under 30.5 wins futures ticket. My “trade deadline disadvantage” angle never came to fruition in the COVID-shortened season, but the slumping offense did enough to keep Milwaukee from cracking the .500 mark.
I anticipate improvement from the Milwaukee rotation and continued strong performance from the relief unit. However, the Brewers faithful should be worried about the club taking a significant offensive step backwards. They have one of the worst-rated farm systems, leaving them with in a weak position to bargain at the trade deadline. But here’s the kicker: the Brew Crew’s 89 wins exceeded their Pythagorean win total by a whopping 8 runs; the largest differential of any club last year.
2020 MLB Season Win Totals: NL Central – BetCrushers.com – March 2, 2020
What Run Support?
It didn’t help that 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich “turned into Joey Gallo for a year.” Yelich’s return from a broken kneecap was less than triumphant (.205/.356/.430) considering where he left off in the year prior. He was on pace for insane production at the plate in 2019 – 44 HR, 97 RBI in 130 games – but had a challenging time finding his groove in 2020. Christian was less aggressive at the plate, walking more and striking out at the highest rates in his career. His story is far from over, though, as there should be no reason to underestimate Yeli’s production for this season.
Christian Yelich’s down year wasn’t the only reason why this offense struggled. Lorenzo Cain opted out of the season after a week, leaving center field to veteran Avisail Garcia. Garcia filled in valiantly, but the Brewers sorely missed Cain’s 2019 Gold Glove. As a result, Milwaukee’s defense dipped in Cain’s absence after two straight years of saving runs. And Avisail’s down year at the plate was yet another low spot in his up-and-down career. Couple that with second baseman Keston Hiura’s sophomore slump – plus Orlando Arcia’s propensity for grounding into double plays – and it’s no surprise that Milwaukee was weighed down by a bottom five offense in the NL.
Surviving on Pitching Alone
While their offensive decline was steeper than I projected, the Brewers pitching staff saved their season from being a total bust. Manager Craig Counsell did another remarkable job of pulling the right strings with the bullpen. He and pitching coach Chris Hook needed to back up a collective masterful effort in 2019 to keep the staff humming – and they delivered. Already one of the MLB’s best bullpens, it got even better with the services of NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams. Williams’ 1 ER in 27 innings may have been a product of an excellent 84.3% strand rate, but his work was legit. He struck out 53 batters while walking 9, producing a 0.33 ERA supported by an astounding 0.86 FIP. And the timing was impeccable for the RoY to burst on the scene as fireball closer Josh Hader turned in his least dominant season with the club.
Milwaukee’s rotation flew under the radar while significantly outperforming my expectations. Last offseason’s big trade with the Padres swapped top starter Zach Davies for lefty Eric Lauer. Lauer’s 2020 season was a bust, though the rotation headlined by Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes posted one of the best FIPs in the majors. Plus they yielded the second-least number of homers. Woody and Burnes kept runners off the base paths and smothered opposing lineups on a regular basis.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 81 – 86
The Brew Crew followed up their quiet 2020 campaign with an equally-quiet offseason. Milwaukee said goodbye to 14-year Brewer Ryan Braun, who had humbly accepted opposing crowds’ heckling over the years and closed out his career gracefully. Then the Brewers got the juices flowing by snatching veterans Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley, Jr. out of free agency. These defensive studs have the chops to rejuvenate a roster that looked stale and uninspired last year. But without much power at the plate, can they contend for the 2021 NL Central title?
Position Players
Spoiler alert – the answer is yes. And at the juicy price of +350 to win the Central to boot. Honestly, this is very tantalizing if I wasn’t already invested in the Cardinals to win the division and the Reds going under their win total. By the time September rolls around, this could be a veritable dogfight between Milwaukee and St. Louis with Chicago slipping behind.
Jackie Bradley, Jr. joining forces with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain creates one of the best defensive outfields in the majors. JBJ doesn’t move the needle on offense like Yelich does, but having another LoCain-like fielder is a huge benefit. Again, don’t let that cloud your judgement on the former MVP though. Projections peg him for a .275 season with 30+ homer, which is good enough to push 140 wRC+.
As a lifetime .261 hitter with a career 96 wRC+, Kolten Wong isn’t going to light up this Milwaukee offense. What he brings to the table, however, is elite defense at second base. Wong pushes 24-year-old Keston Hiura over to first base where his damage on defense will be minimized. And speaking of Hiura, the young superstar of 2019 should get back on track this year. Despite pounding 13 homers, he struck out more frequently, walked less, and dropped 91 points of batting average from 2019 to 2020. Keston’s .402 BABIP in his rookie season signaled this drop-off, though his underlying metrics point to him being a league-average contributor at the plate. Look for an all-around improvement on offense and in the field from this lineup.
Bullpen
The bullpen has been one of Milwaukee’s strong suits for several seasons running. But with key cogs Alex Claudio and Corey Knebel gone, will this group be as potent in 2021? If anything, this relief unit is still top-loaded with closer Josh Hader and setup men Devin Williams and Brent Suter. Even with expectations for Devin to settle back down to earth, this trio is still 3-4 WAR good. Hader and Williams are pure gas on the mound, and Suter’s command has made him one of the most reliable relievers on the roster. I’ve ticked this unit down slightly from its stellar 2020 season purely for regression’s sake. But don’t let me give you the impression that I am down on the Brewers’ bullpen – they have plenty of middle relief talent and a versatile long reliever/spot starter in Freddy Peralta to be one of the best in the National League.
Rotation
Management’s approach to the offseason was very strategic in the sense that they stood pat with many positions. Defensive upgrades outranked bigger bats and the bullpen was reinforced internally within the organization. And Milwaukee’s starting rotation was so effective last season that general manager Matt Arnold let them ride in 2021. The bottom three are experienced, mid-4.00s FIP pitchers worth 5+ WAR. Josh Lindblom, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson are the kind of starters that casual fans don’t excited about but are crucial to rounding out a rotation – especially when on a budget.
Also consider that a lot of people are sleeping on the Brewers’ impressive 1-2 duo of Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. These two have quietly cemented their positions on top of Milwaukee’s rotation after excellent 2020 seasons. Woodruff’s 3.20 FIP, 5.06 K/9 year backed up a 3.01 FIP, 4.77 K/9 2019 campaign, earning him the title of staff ace. And this guy would be a valuable #2 on pretty much any team, for that matter.
My confidence is a tad lower with Burnes, though. Not because of what he’s done on the field, but simply because he has only 13 career MLB starts. Still, projections have him in the mid-3.00s range this year after balling out with a 2.04 FIP last season. If Burnes doesn’t completely revert back to his home run-plagued 2019 season, expect 6+ WAR from these two. The Brewers have a good enough pitching staff to mask some of their offensive woes, and the fielding will be significantly improved with the new additions. I can see Milwaukee trading blows with St. Louis coming down the homestretch of the division race with this roster. Are you willing to bet them at +350 to win it?
Pittsburgh Pirates 2021 Win Total: Open 59.5, Now 58.5
2020 Result: Under 25.5 (19-41)
Somebody had to do it, and that somebody was the Pittsburgh Pirates. The it, unfortunately, is winning the least number of games in the shortened 2020 season. New manager Derek Shelton quickly faced the reality of taking over in the midst of a very rough period. Perhaps the strangest aspect of the Bucs’ 19-41 record was how they bowed down to the AL Central, finishing 14 games under .500 against interleague competition. Pittsburgh’s 19 wins were 3 less than Texas’ 22, although their pythagorean win total puts them just above the Rangers. But pythag wins don’t count and there’s not much comfort in looking at things that way anyhow.
Richard Rodriguez and the Pittsburgh bullpen were good enough. They balanced out a 1.40 WHIP with top-third home run and walk rates, avoiding total disaster. Getting to the bullpen with a lead was another story altogether though. This work-in-progress rotation coughed up the third-most homers (53) and the most walks (133) in the majors. And aside from Joe Musgrove’s sizzling 12.48 K/9 and Steven Brault’s 2.53 ERA/3.71 FIP season, the Pirates starters struggled mightily. Look, this isn’t the first or the last time you’ll hear it – walks and home runs will kill your pitching staff!
Looking for a Spark
The near-term state of the Pirates franchise rests squarely on their prospect development. Ironically, 2020 was a speed bump in the progression of each club’s minor leaguers. This hit rebuilding teams like Pittsburgh who desperately need their up-and-comers the hardest. The organization’s #1 prospect got his shot in the bigs last season and paid instant dividends to this sluggish lineup. Third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes made his MLB debut on September 1st, going 2-5 with a home run against the Cubs. He was producing so well that it took less than two weeks to elevate him from seventh to third in the batting order. In a limited 95 plate appearances, Hayes hit 5 homers on his way to a .376/.442/.682 season.
Ke’Bryan Hayes’ herculean effort was simply not enough to turn the tide of Pittsburgh’s offense though. Outside of Hayes and fellow third baseman Phillip Evans – who was lost for the season just two weeks in – no Pirates hitter came close to hitting .300. In fact, they were the only two to top .250 on the season. It’s no wonder that the Bucs offense posted a 73 wRC+ that was second-worst behind Texas. On the the other hand, this group played much better defensely. Hayes joined forces with second baseman Adam Frazier and outfielder Bryan Reynolds to save a bunch of runs for their struggling pitchers. And on that note, Jacob Stallings proved that he was the right man for the starting spot behind home plate, serving as an excellent backstop with an okay bat.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 58 – 63
At least they got prospects out of the offseason. Just ask Colorado how not to maximize their star players’ trade value. Pittsburgh cleared the deck (Yinzers know) of big names like Musgrove, Taillon, and Bell this winter – receiving lots of promise for the future in the form of prospects. In opposite fashion, Pittsburgh’s “ugly cycle” with Chris Archer finally concluded after he returned to Tampa in free agency. There’s been plenty of cleaning out the closets lately, so when does this club’s turnaround accelerate?
Rotation
Just like the Cubs showed us, parting with your staff #1 is a pretty strong sign that you don’t intend on winning the 2021 NL Central. Pittsburgh’s version of the send the Padres your best player game involved their ace, Joe Musgrove. And just as the Pirates welcomed back Jameson Taillon from a second Tommy John surgery, off he goes to the Yankees for four prospects. That’s 5+ WAR of expected value gone from this rotation that is in dire need of a boost. But I understand the longview position that Pirates management has maintained, and these moves fit the bill.
This leaves guys like Steven Brault, Chad Kuhl, and Mitch Keller to prop up the Pirates rotation. It’s a group of 4.50+ FIP pitchers that must find a way to get their team 400+ innings. Then add in free agent Tyler Anderson, whose return from an injury-shortened 2019 season worked out well for the Giants. But living by the pop fly is like walking a tightrope, and Anderson’s new home ballpark is a little less pitcher-friendly. And because they need five arms, Pittsburgh’s rotation will also feature a 27-year-old JT Brubaker who looks to build off of his rocky rookie season. Put it all together and the overall outlook is for this group of 1-ish WAR starters is actually better than last year.
Bullpen
Richard Rodriguez has had a pair of brilliant seasons sandwiching a brutal one since joining the Pirates in 2018. He appeared in 72 games in 2019 and got absolutely hammered in a handful of them. It was a lumpy season for Rodriguez, who converted just 1 save in 5 opportunities. But the club is optimistic for him to be a reliable closer like he was in 2020, though I lean more in the middle – somewhere in the 4.00 FIP neighborhood.
If anything, the top half of this bullpen has enough MLB experience to give manager Derek Shelton an indication of what he’s got. And the reality is that Chris Stratton, Michael Feliz, and Kyle Crick aren’t the most reliable late-inning relievers. Plus the lack of depth forces them to push prospects like David Bednar and Luis Oveido into middle relief. This group will be skating on thin ice this season if multiple guys falter or get injured. So after holding it together very respectably for 60 games last year, this could truly be one of the worst relief units in the majors.
Position Players
If there is any buzz surrounding this lineup, it is emanating from third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. His superb defense and promising hitting skills give this club a boost if he can last a full season. Not that Hayes’ 195 wRC+, .450 BABIP in 95 plate appearances is expected to continue, but the 24-year-old could actually be the most productive hitter on this team. And with Josh Bell off to Washington, former third baseman Colin Moran will slide over to first base where he is less of a defensive liability. Ke’Bryan’s impact is significant on this low-impact lineup, though you have to recognize that a Bryan Reynolds-eque sophomore slump is quite possible.
On the other end of the spectrum is the declining veteran outfielder Gregory Polanco. He’s struggled to regain his 2016-2018 form and is not that great of a fielder. And to make matters worse, he fractured his wrist in the Dominican Winter League. Though if healthy enough, Polanco could be one of the few Pirates hitters to top the 20-homer mark this season. Yet it’s still really tough to see how this Pirates team gets their mojo going at the plate for a 162-game season.
2021 NL Central Projected Standings
- St. Louis Cardinals (85-77)
- Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
- Chicago Cubs (79-83)
- Cincinnati Reds (74-88)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (60-102)
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