Love them or hate them, respect is due to the Los Angeles Dodgers for winning back-to-back World Series Championships against strong AL opponents. This latest NL West title now makes four in a row and 23 overall. Will there be a shakeup in the 2026 NL West pecking order? It’s unlikely at the top as the market pegged the Dodgers with the highest regular season win total in the MLB. Things are shaping up as free-for-all below them as the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Padres fall in a similar range. Upsets happen and the prices for a new division champ are juicy!

The 2026 MLB season ushers in The BetCrushers’ 7th Annual Division Preview series. We look for value in the futures markets in this labor of love, especially regular season win totals. We appreciate all of our faithful and new readers! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)

2025 Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

2025 NL West Final Standings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69)
2. San Diego Padres (90-72)
3. San Francisco Giants (81-81)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82)
5. Colorado Rockies (43-119)

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Los Angeles Dodgers 2026 Win Total: Open 99.5, Now 102.5

2025 Result: Under 104.5 (93-69 / Pythag: 95)

As polarizing as the Dodgers have been with their spending in the recent past, the results speak for themselves. Back-to-back Championships highlight a run of five World Series appearances over the last nine seasons and NL West titles in twelve of the last 13. Oh yeah, L.A. won another World Series back in 2020 that broke a dry spell dating back to 1988. The Guggenheim Group did anything but rest on its laurels this winter, inking prized free agents Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz with the goal of pulling a Tom Emanski on the MLB.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• K Tucker (OF)
• E Diaz (RP-R)

Subtractions:

• M Kopech (RP-R)
• K Yates (RP-R)
• A Banda (RP-L)
• A Barnes (C)
• M Conforto (OF)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 93 – 110

— Position Players —

As excellent as it was, the 2025 lineup wasn’t as prolific of a run scorer compared to some of them going back to 2020. They still mashed the league’s 2nd most home runs (244) of the season, which is also their second highest amount in the past five years. It was a quietly dominant offense you could say. In fact, the Dodgers were right behind Aaron Judge’s MLB-leading offense in multiple key categories:

• 244 HR
• 825 R
• 9.4% BB
• .441 SLG
• 113 wRC+

That should come as no surprise from a lineup containing Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, and Max Muncy. You can see from their season-long trending offense plot above how they weathered the long season with strong production both in the spring and heading into the postseason. Infallible? Perhaps not with the looming aging “concern” of these superstars and what that means for their 2026 production.

LAD Selected Hitters wRC+ (2021-2025)

	Age	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
F Freeman	36	136	157	161	136	139
M Muncy	35	139	106	117	133	137
M Betts	33	131	144	165	140	104
T Hernandez	33	132	130	107	132	102
S Ohtani	31	150	142	180	180	172
W Smith	30	130	127	117	109	153

In terms of these elite 30-somethings’ immediate outlook, projections are a mixed bag of sorts. The change in aggregate WAR valuation from 2025 to this season is little changed, however, as the gains and losses roughly cancel each other out. That’s the scary part for the rest of the league because we haven’t gotten to Kyle Tucker’s impact on the roster yet. Here’s the quick and dirty, starting from oldest to youngest:

• Freddie Freeman continues to hit the ball hard but experienced a dropoff in contact percentage both inside and outside the strike zone. Degradation of his high-BABIP skillset could lead to a 10-15% drop in production.
• Max Muncy got a little help from the eye doctor last spring to correct an astigmatism, helping the third baseman deliver his best rate statistics since 2021. Several IL stints limited his playing time again, making his volume and quality projections tough to dial in. Note that Muncy’s last two “full” seasons (2022 & 2023) sacrificed quality for quantity, though he is still on track for a plus-20% year.
• Mookie Betts‘ tough season began with an illness that led to significant weight loss then a broken toe in May. The result: career lows in BABIP (.258), wRC+ (104), and hard contact (35.8%). Mookie is in line for a 20% bump offensively and more strong defense at shortstop.
• Teoscar Hernandez also had a down season at the plate resulting from a 3.4% reduction in barrels and a BABIP drop of nearly 60 points. A modest 10% bump is realistic given his baseline skills in light of aging.
• Will Smith slashed .296/.404/.497, producing a 153 wRC+; both of which are high points for a full MLB season. His .345 BABIP drives a 20-30% overall reduction ahead as the 3x All-Star catcher consistently notched BABIPs between .273 and .276 in the four seasons prior to 2025.
• Shohei Ohtani is undoubtedly a unicorn coming off of back-to-back seasons with 700+ plate appearances, 20%+ barrels, and 58%+ hard contact. Expectations range from a repeat of 2025 numbers to a 10% drop. That is still unworldly production from both rate and volume perspectives.

Room For an Upgrade?

As if all of that isn’t impressive enough, Los Angeles swaps out corner outfielder Michael Conforto for coveted free agent Kyle Tucker. Conforto fell way short of the Dodgers’ expectations with a .199/.305/.333 line that clocked in 30% below his final season in San Francisco. This switcharoo nets the club a bonafide hitter without a major splits weakness unlike Conforto. The plus-40% hitter has tremendous plate discipline, hits the ball hard, and is a threat on the base paths. Manager Dave Roberts intends to slot Tucker somewhere between Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman – an even scarier top of the lineup for their opponents. Consdiering the last two seasons of injury setbacks, conservative estimates pencil in the Tucker/Conforto exchange as a net increase of 5 WAR.

Promising catcher prospect Dalton Rushing finally got his shot to back up Will Smith last year. Unfortunately, his massive success in the Minors the last couple seasons did not translate well to his rookie campaign. That’s what a 37.4% strikeout rate will do to your numbers! Otherwise, the 25-year-old hit the ball hard (45.3% hard contact, 14.0% barrels). But those Ks are a major liability to Rushing becoming a more complementary player to Smith – something to keep an eye on in camp. Cut strikeouts by 10% and the part-timer should add 30% onto last year’s 62 wRC+, a firm upgrade over Ben Rortvedt and Austin Barnes.

Dave Roberts’ bench will be stuffed with guys like Hyeseong Kim, Alex Call, Michael Siani, and Kike Hernandez. Miguel Rojas leads the group with MLB experience and flexibility that a Championship-caliber squad needs to weather the storm. Plus top infielder prospect Alex Freeland looks to capitalize on potential playing time to start the season while Tommy Edman is on the IL. This is a strong bench full of options once again, especially considering the positional flexibility that Edman offers once he returns to action.

No Rest For the Wicked

I get it. There’s a lot of baseball fans who loathe what the Dodgers have been doing. Buying up star players and winning Championships. But they have sold off a fair amount of their prospect pipeline of the next few seasons. And it’s not as if that pipeline has not produced quality players on today’s roster. Centerfielder Andy Pages is great example of homegrown talent bearing fruit similar to Will Smith. While Pages hasn’t produced the bat that Smith has, the 25-year-old is a key contributor to a solid defense that should carry forward into 2026. His comparison to the Dodgers’ All-Star catcher is not really fair though, as Pages wields a plus-10% bat that many teams would love to have in center field.

It is scary when a top three lineup fills a couple weak spots filled after winning a second straight World Series. Despite the aging of their substantial core, 2026 is not likely to be the year where the position player group takes a big step backwards. A status quo of sorts puts the Dodgers in good shape for an eighth 110 or higher wRC+ season in the last nine.

— Rotation —

As advertised, the 2025 rotation was firmly better across the 3.69 ERA, 3.84 FIP/3.77 xFIP board, cracking the MLB’s top five. It wasn’t quite 7-8 wins better than the 2024 version as anticipated, in part because total workload fell below 800 innings. 783.1 innings marked the Dodgers’ lowest output by starting pitchers since 1994 (2020 aside). Yoshinobu Yamamoto had a masterful second MLB season, striking out 29.4% of batters for a 2.49 ERA and 2.94 FIP/3.05 xFIP. Most importantly, the righty’s 173.2 innings was the highest of the bunch by 62.0.

Questions about 27-year-old Yamamoto’s ability to make it through a full MLB season were partially answered. He made 30 starts with higher ground ball, strikeout, and whiff rates than in his debut. The Dodgers need another healthy season where Yamamoto clears 4 WAR, even with more modest low-3.00s effectiveness. The younger Roki Sasaki is absolutely going to be in the 2026 rotation despite his trial by fire resulting in a less-than-welcoming 4.46 ERA. Add ten more starts to the count in the low-4.00s and this rotation gets a lift from the bottom.

One Hell of a Sendoff

Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw finally hung up the cleats after 18 seasons with the club. He wrapped up his storied career with a 223-96 record, 2.53 ERA, and 3,052 strikeouts. Obviously, that just scratches the surface on his accomplishments. Last season was no peak performance, but 111.2 innings of 3.39 ERA ball is substantial in the landscape that is the Los Angeles rotation. After all, Clayton worked the second most innings among the team’s starters in 2025.

Injury histories make projecting the usage of L.A.’s starting pitcher crop tough. Prime examples Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and Emmet Sheehan each made double digit starts with ERAs ranging from 2.87 to 3.19. Some combination of these four will comprise the bulk of the rotation barring a doomsday scenario. They’re sub-4.00 arms with varying degrees of how sub the results will be. Fuzzy math gets this group to 10+ wins – not bad at all with Yamamoto and Sasaki bookending them.

The waters get murkier from there. Prospects River Ryan and Kyle Hurt return from Tommy John surgery with a combined 29.0 MLB innings, adding to the uncertainty they carry. Gavin Stone is in a similar boat, having missed last year after shoulder surgery. Justin Wrobleski could also see time as a starter, though he and the others noted above likely get the bulk of their action out of the bullpen. Keeping the primary starters healthy may require good fortune more than anything. Even with conservative low-20s starts targets for the big guns, the Dodgers rotation should be similarly effective as the 2025 group with upside via more innings.

— Bullpen —

The 4-year/$72M free agent signing of closer Tanner Scott was the straw that broke the camel’s back for many non-Dodgers fans. This was the sign of a loaded organization throwing its money around to take elite players away from the rest of our teams. And do it with deferred contracts, nonetheless. Well, Scott was a bust in year one of his contract. 10 blown saves in 33 attempts with a 1-4 record shows that not even the Dodgers get it right all the time. Home runs and other rough outings added nearly 3 runs onto Tanner’s prior 1.75 ERA that garnered such a large contract.

Relief pitching is swingy by nature. Then you get one like L.A.’s that was put to the largest innings total in the MLB. A subpar 4.27 ERA and a save conversion rate just higher than league average are not what you expect from a World Championship squad. There is room for optimism though, starting with Tanner Scott. He’s out of the closer role and is in store for positive home run regression after last year’s career-high (by far) 1.74 home runs/9 innings. The fastball/slider combo still graded out strongly, yet hitters squared him up for another career-high: 42.3% hard contact. Sub-4.00 work rights the ship but tread cautiously when considering a massive bounceback.

A New Sheriff In Town

Former Mets closer Edwin Diaz is this offseason’s Tanner Scott signing, but with more juice. The 31-year-old can make fans sweat close games with the best of ’em. Yet his stuff is electric, he delivers strikeout rates in the 30s and 40s, and has been fairly durable over nine seasons. The exception came in 2023 when a fluke accident celebrating at the WBC cost him the season. As far as upper body health goes, Diaz does not present any cause for concern. The career 2.82 ERA right-hander has a historical trend of a sub-2.00 season followed by a 3.00+ season. Rinse and repeat. Don’t be surprised at the outcome knowing that Edwin finished 2025 with a 1.63 ERA. Regardless, this is a guy you can turn to when the outcome is in the balance.

Diaz pushes Tanner Scott into a tandem of quality high-leverage lefty setup men along with Alex Vesia. Blake Treinen and his .382 BABIP were a major letdown, as was Kirby Yates. Yates’ departure opens the door for Treinen to regain trust as Dave Roberts’ leverage righty below Diaz. If so, the leash may be short with Brusdar Graderol returning from shoulder surgery…except we don’t know if the 27-year-old will still have the filthy stuff that yielded an oppressive 1.20 ERA in 2023.

Will Klein may have earned another look in the Bigs and Ben Casparius looks to be the long reliever after a workhorse campaign. There’s plenty to like about the L.A. bullpen with Edwin Diaz and Brusdar Graderol in the fold. Nothing is a given, though there are enough options between the budding starters squeezed out by a talented rotation and rookies like Jack Dreyer and Ben Casparius. Relief pitching may be improved by key offseason tweaks with a baseline similar to last year.

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San Diego Padres 2026 Win Total: Open 85.5, Now 84.5

2025 Result: Over 89.5 (90-72 / Pythag: 90)

San Diego’s 14-3 start to the season was about as hot as they come. Maybe not as high-scoring and dominant as the 2023 Rays intro but certainly problematic considering it was our make-or-break futures position of 2025. The difference between a big haul and a modest return on our win total portfolio came down to the final series of the season. Arizona couldn’t snag a win that weekend and the rest was history. In light of the Dodgers’ stranglehold, we’ll celebrate the Friars’ fourth runner-up NL West finish in six seasons. The 2020s are the franchise’s most prolific decade in terms of win percentage (.537), though the question is whether this roster has enough left in the tank to keep pressure on Los Angeles.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• Sung-mun Song (INF)
• M Andujar (OF)
• G Canning (SP-R)
• G Marquez (SP-R)
• W Buehler (SP-R)
• N Castellanos (OF)

Subtractions:

• D Cease (SP-R)
• R Suarez (RP-R)
• R O’Hearn (1B/OF)
• L Arraez (INF)
• J Iglesias (INF)
• E Diaz (C)
• N Cortes (SP-L)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 81 – 88

— Rotation —

In several respects, the 2025 rotation was one of the less robust groups of San Diego’s past few seasons. Bottom third innings pitched (824.0), walk rate (8.5%), hone run rate (1.33 HR/9 IP), and 4.38 FIP/4.36 xFIP resulted in a 46-45 mark that says a lot given the team’s overall 90-72 record. Many of last season’s marks ranked worst or second-worst in their last five seasons. The rotation wasn’t terrible by any means, just not what one would expect from a 90-win team.

Let’s start with the lack of stability without veterans Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, in addition to losing Michael King for close to half the season. Fortunately, front office head honcho AJ Preller signed veteran Nick Pivetta last winter to ultimately anchor the rotation. The 33-year-old led this unit with 181.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, and 3.7 WAR with a 13-5 record. It may be very tough for Pivetta to repeat those impressive numbers though, as his career-low .235 BABIP and 1.09 HR/9 inning marks scream regression. That’s not to say he won’t continue to chew up innings and deliver sub-4.00 work, as 2025’s 3.49 FIP/3.85 xFIP support another strong performance in 2026.

Coming and Going

It was clear from the franchise’s ownership transition that the Padres were not going to bring back Dylan Cease. Toronto’s 7-year/$210M offer was way beyond what the Seidlers could commit towards keeping the 30-year-old in Southern California. Last season was less robust than his first one with the Padres, clocking his lowest innings total (168.0) since 2021 despite making a full 32 starts. Cease generally did not go quite as deep into his starts and yielded 4+ earned runs in seven of them. By most evaluation systems, the righty’s stuff and command weren’t as crisp as it was in 2024.

This is where Joe Musgrove comes in. Injuries have limited the veteran these last last three seasons, most notably Tommy John surgery that put him on the shelf for all of 2025. All indications point to a restriction-free 2026 and conservative projections just under the 4.00 threshold in 25+ starts. It’s not the 180-inning, 3.00 ERA output of 2021 & 2022 though you’d be hard pressed to find disappointment if Musgrove hits those projection targets.

A thoracic nerve issue – not to be confused with thoracic outlet syndrome – in Michael King’s shoulder throttled his contributions but apparently isn’t enough of a concern to deter Preller from re-signing the 30-year-old. However, there is enough doubt across King’s projections for a repeat of his stellar 2024 debut as a full-time starter (173.2 IP, 2.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP/3.50 xFIP). A full season of mid-3.00 work would go a very long way towards creating a sturdy floor for the 2026 rotation.

Questionable Depth

Dan Szymborski may have said it best in his 2026 ZiPS Projections piece: “the rotation might truly determine the team’s ceiling and floor.” Adding German Marquez, Walker Buehler, and Griffin Canning doesn’t particularly move the needle. But more depth is better than less. Aside from the top three’s 7-9 WAR, things get pretty dicey in a hurry. Prospect depth in a position to impact the 2026 rotation is slim to none, meaning that the group of Randy Vasquez, German Marquez, JP Sears, Matt Waldron, and Kyle Hart lead the way to round things out.

Beefing up the rotation’s workload is not Vasquez’ strong suit, having just stretched out to 26 starts at just 4.96 innings/start. There is a path to improve on that, though the bigger question is what comes out of 2025’s 3.84 ERA, 4.85 FIP/5.51 xFIP mix. I see a mid-to-upper 4.00s consensus for the 27-year-old who does not generate much swing-and-miss. Southpaw JP Sears falls in a similar bucket but has proven to be a bigger innings-eater, although last year’s 5.02 innings/start mark was way down from 5.64 and 5.38 of the prior two seasons. Veteran option German Marquez should fare better at Petco Park compared to Coors Field as a pitch-to-contact righty without much excitement. Griffin Canning will return soon from a torn Achilles tendon that abruptly ended a successful heavy ground ball season. Unfortunately, the 29-year-old’s projections are more in line with his career mid-4.00s numbers.

Knuckleballer Matt Waldron had a rough 2025 between injury and lack of effectiveness in the Minors. Plus he hasn’t notched an ERA under 4.00 at any level since Double-A in 2022. Left-hander Kyle Hart returns on a one-year deal after a 5.86 ERA, 5.18 FIP/4.93 xFIP return from the KBO in split duty between the rotation and bullpen. Considering that his small-sample work in relief was more potent than his brief tenure in the rotation, look for Hart to be a stopgap starter if not pitching in relief. All things considered, the lack of sturdy #4 & #5 starters and having questionable depth will hold the rotation back from improving on a down 2025 season.

— Bullpen —

This is where the script is flipped. Where San Diego’s starting pitchers carved out a 46-45 record, their relievers came through with a 44-27 mark more complementary to a playoff team. Obviously, run scoring is a key component to winning more than you lose but having a formidable bullpen is essential to holding or regaining leads late in the game. This unit deserves the superlatives as one of the best in the game. They led the league with 49 saves and the 2nd fewest blown saves (16). Run prevention was tops in the MLB via a 3.06 ERA and a 2nd best 3.53 FIP/3.90 xFIP. And when you throw in the 10th most innings pitched (609.0), there is no wonder why the Padres bullpen held the league’s highest value at 7.6 WAR.

The big offseason loss of Robert Suarez certainly stings though. Their closer nailed down 40 of 45 save opportunities with another sub-3.00 season across 69.2 innings. However, AJ Preller already backfilled his position in last summer’s trade with the Athletics for fireballer Mason Miller. The 27-year-old’s 100+ mph fastball and devastating slider have produced a 2.81 ERA in his short, 160.0-inning career. This dude is the real deal and is more than a reasonable substitute for Suarez with four seasons of team control remaining.

Continuity is strong otherwise as top volume producers Adrian Morejon, Jeremiah Estrada, and Wandy Peralta are still in the house. Left-hander Morejon and righty Estrada have proven themselves to be formidable leverage arms over the past two seasons in San Diego. Peralta, Yuki Matsui, and rookie David Morgan firmly sit as decent middle relief, providing this unit with a solid mix of handedness. Plus they will get Jason Adam back in the first few months after rupturing his hamstring last year. I won’t make the mistake of underestimating the Padres bullpen again this year – chalk them up for another elite performance. The biggest downside threat in our opinion is getting stuck with more innings from a thinner rotation.

— Position Players —

I’ve been digging the new trending offense plots in this year’s preview series. They do a good job showing how things generally went throughout the 2025 season. In San Diego’s case, the hot start hit a lull before resurfacing for the postseason run. The season-end result was middling with all due respect. Turns out a high-OBP, low-slug lineup like the Padres’ needed some muscle to make a difference. Compared to previous iterations, the 2025 offense scored the least runs (702) and home runs (152) since the 2020 season. Even their fielding was middle of the road.

Any questions regarding Jurickson Profar’s huge 2024 season in San Diego were answered by a PED suspension. Everybody figured left field would be a black hole without him, except Gavin Sheets and Ramon Laureano came out of nowhere to stop the bleeding. Now they have a full year of Laureano under contract to lock down left field with a plus-10% bat. I wouldn’t bet on another 30%+ season though. Keeping the 31-year-old healthy is key as the Padres’ fourth outfielder options are shaky at the moment. Bryce Johnson figures to be more glove than bat and we don’t know if Nick Castellanos’ change of scenery will get him back to being a league-average hitter. One thing is for certain: Castellanos does not offer much in the way of defense.

A Little More Oomph?

2024 Rookie of the Year runner-up Jackson Merrill suffered a disappointing second MLB season interrupted by three IL stints. The Padres’ centerfielder was a big part of the hot start but ended the season with 110 fewer plate appearances, a 14% drop at the plate, and just 1 stolen base. Just a reminder that injury risk always caps upside. But for this generally healthy 22-year-old, you pretty much have to figure him to reach the 600 PA plateau. Extending last year’s +16% bat across a full season nets the team more action on the bases and another win of value.

It came to no surprise that Luis Arraez would be left to enter free agency as the 3x Batting Champion’s numbers steadily declined. Plus his high-OBP, low-power game is part of why the Padres failed to score more runs. Arraez became expendable in part because infielder Jake Cronenworth had a hotter bat than usual and walked a few percent more than his career average. I’ll start Cronenworth off this season with a 5-10% reduction though he is still be good enough to be in this lineup most everyday.

There are still questions as to how the right side of the infield will shake out. That and the designated hitter spot become fluid without Arraez or second-half acquisition Ryan O’Hearn on the roster. Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets and import Sung-Mun Song look to be the primary occupants at first and second base. Nick Castellanos could tag team with Sheets at first base to see what he can do in a platoon. Song was a late bloomer in Korea but has experience at multiple infield positions, notably third base where Manny Machado resides. Until we see him in live MLB action, the jury is out on his bat. Veteran Miguel Andujar helps shore up lost production against left-handed pitching despite his marginal fielding value. Flexibility in the DH spot gives Andujar runway to produce without disrupting San Diego’s quality outfield configuration.

Players to Build On

The veteran left side of Machado and Xander Bogaerts may not pack the same punch they use to. But Machado still has a plus-20% bat and Bogaerts is a step behind that. Realistically, health is the main thing that would hold either one back from another 3+ WAR season. And here I am completely burying the team’s most dynamic player, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Maybe because he’s “boring”? The 27-year-old’s bounceback from an injury-sidetracked 2024 season was uneventfully successful. Tatis played in the most games (155), had the most plate appearances (691), and stole the most bases (32) of his MLB career. Another plus-30% season keeps him in 5+ WAR territory.

Where is the catcher group heading? Mid-season acquisition Freddy Fermin adds a different dynamic than Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado, although the new guy had a pretty dismal offensive campaign. Fermin has upside from last year’s low point and he defends the position quite well. The bigger problem is figuring out how Luis Campusano will perform. Lackluster defense may relegate most of his playing time at DH, which is fine with Fermin carrying the heavier defensive load. After all, it’s Campy’s enigmatic bat that the Padres are banking on to come alive. He’s a Triple-A killer who popped in the Majors back in 2023 without much to show for since. With Campusano it comes down to which projections to use: -15% or +5%…or something in the middle?

I’m approaching the Padres position player corps cautiously. On one hand, there’s plenty of stability with Machado, Bogaerts, and Tatis. Then you have Sheets and Laureano as probable decliners coming off peaks. So the key offensive adjustment may be just splits and not much overall. Fielding looks to remain mid-pack without much shakeup other than behind the plate with Fermin and Campusano. Realistically, their biggest constraint is the lack of depth via a depleted farm system. Nothing like rolling the dice on injury luck!

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San Francisco Giants 2026 Win Total: Open 82.5, Now 81.5

2025 Win Total: Over 80.5 (81-81 / Pythag: 83)

The Giants franchise is no stranger to significant postseason success. Although we are taking about 10+ years ago, San Francisco was one of the most dangerous playoff teams (in even-numbered years) with three World Championships and a fourth appearance that fell short in the NLDS. The subsequent ten-year period has been much more mediocre, especially the past four seasons where the team has won between 79 and 81 games and finished outside of playoff contention. President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey’s thumbprint on the organization has reshaped the lineup but will we finally see the Giants break out of their holding pattern?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• H Bader (OF)
• A Houser (SP-R)
• T Mahle (SP-R)
• L Arraez (INF)
• W Brennan (OF)
• J Foley (RP-R)

Subtractions:

• J Verlander (SP-R)
• J Lucchesi (RP-L)
• D Smith (1B)
• W Flores (1B)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 79 – 84

— Position Players —

The 2025 offense featured new faces Willy Adames and, eventually, Rafael Devers. Yet the lineup’s numbers were eerily similar to prior renditions’. As tough as it is to hit home runs at Oracle Park, the extra-base hit potential is far from unfriendly. All three slash line components (.235/.311/.386) ranked bottom third with 173 homers and 705 runs scored, landing just below average. Plus the Giants were not a good running team. Their 68 stolen bases were 2nd lowest in the MLB, as was their overall base running grade that seemed to be on the upswing in 2024.

San Francisco was a slightly better defensive team than in the previous season. We commented in last year’s preview that “a lot of the Giants’ defensive eggs are in the baskets of Chapman and Bailey“, which ended up being partially true. Patrick Bailey was essentially a one-man band behind the plate, taking on 72% of the workload and leading this group to the MLB’s 2nd best defensive grades per DRS and FRV. Those are the knees of a 26-year-old! So it probably does not matter whether prospect Jesus Rodriguez, Rule 5 guy Daniel Susac, or journeyman Eric Haase are in the backup role. Bailey is the defensive breadwinner and none of those options are the type to turn this group into an offensive force.

Third baseman Matt Chapman lost some of his defensive edge but made up for it with a park-adjusted 118 wRC+ and a .231/.340/.430 slash line. A nagging right wrist injury may be to blame for the fielding dropoff, plus he turns 33 in April. Regardless, Chapman and shortstop Willy Adames make a very good left side of the infield with plus-10 to 20% bats. Look for these two veterans to crank out another 8 WAR or so as one of their key assets is staying in the lineup regardless of who is on the mound against them.

Jumpstarting the Lineup

Buster Posey’s bold move of the 2026 offseason is making Tony Vitello the first college coach to go straight into an MLB managerial position. He assumedly gets a full season of Rafael Devers plus 2x batting champion Luis Arraez and bona fide centerfielder Harrison Bader to juice up the position player corps. Former Red Sox third baseman Devers acclimated to first base fairly well, actually improving on how Dominic Smith and LaMonte Wade Jr. fielded the position. Interestingly enough, the 2x Silver Slugger hit substantially better as DH versus when he manned first. This could be a classic “small sample” situation or even something that gets worked out during the offseason.

Luis Arraez fell out of favor in San Diego given his declining production. Yet his plus bat – against righties, anyhow – is a massive upgrade to a second base group that slashed just .217/.273/.343. Backup infielder Casey Schmitt’s splits cratered against left-handed hitting, so keep an eye on this in the early goings as the Giants were abysmal in this department. We anticipated splits rebalancing for this club in 2025, but in reality it was a drastic swing. Of the 19 San Francisco batters with 50+ plate appearances, Heliot Ramos was the only one above average against southpaws (107 wRC+).

The final noteworthy addition to the position player corps boosts a weak spot in the defense: center field. Jung Hoo Lee moves to right field for the first time in his brief MLB career where he could be less of a liability while still sporting an improved bat. Harrison Bader has stayed relatively healthy and comes to the Bay Area off of a career offensive season. As fast as the 31-year-old is, expecting another .359 BABIP-fueled 122 wRC+ is a fool’s errand. This upgrade in center field keeps the Giants on the good side defensively with another step in the right direction.

Fusing It All Together

Left fielder Heliot Ramos solidified his role after breaking out in 2024. Unfortunately, his hot start petered out down the stretch and ultimately resulted in losing 69 points of slugging. In short, Ramos continued to pound the ball but not produce barrels. Last year’s 106 wRC+ is a decent baseline moving forward for the bat-first outfielder and it appears he has hit the ground running in Spring Training. Lee produces with a higher-average, lower-power profile that upgrades the right field spot by 25% or more in the absence of Mike Yastrzemski. Outfield depth is a work in progress between upstarts Drew Gilbert and Jerar Encarnacion as well as lightly-experienced MLBers Will Brennan and Luis Matos.

It’s hard to say if Luis Arraez “solves” the Giants’ second base issue, though he is a solid leadoff man. His salary was not worth it to a more constrained Padres club but meshes better in San Francisco. Casey Schmitt or Tyler Fitzgerald have yet to prove they can sustain average or better results at the plate, though both are just one season removed from quality hitting in limited exposure. If Arraez’ splits continue to be as wide as last season, Schmitt is a logical candidate to pick up more weak-side platoon work unless he’s completely lost his mojo.

One to keep on the radar is 21-year-old Bryce Eldridge. He’s an interesting player who should gobble up playing time in the DH spot after thumping Minor League pitching last year. Or Tony Vitello may juggle Eldridge and Rafael Devers between DH and first base. But it all depends on whether the kid translates his prior success at the lower levels to the MLB. We see about 2-4% improvement with this tweaked lineup and intend to negotiate a splits rebalancing prior to the season start.

— Rotation —

All things considered, the Giants rotation was not bad at all. Their starters have gradually climbed the ladder of increasing workload these past few years while keeping a middling ERA (4.10). Even though Oracle Park helps stifle home runs, it is generally a high-BABIP environment with a spacious outfield. So it’s no wonder why the rotation’s ERA underperforms their FIP. But from a value perspective, the 2025 unit was just about 3 wins better than the prior two seasons. Putting up more innings is a contributing force to WAR and is a shot in the arm to the bullpen.

Our thoughts last winter dialed in on the questions that Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks posed. Ray ended up being the rotation’s second-highest innings contributor (182.1), making 32 starts with a 3.65 ERA and 3.93 FIP/4.29 xFIP. The 34-year-old righty had the uncommon distinction of a higher FIP/xFIP than ERA due to a .268 BABIP. Injury risk is a concern with the 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner but Vitello should otherwise have confidence in a 170+ inning encore around 4.00 ERA. He’s been leaned on successfully for 32 starts in the last three seasons not impacted by Tommy John surgery.

The Veteran Influence

Everyone knows by now that Logan Webb is the undisputed ace of the Giants rotation. Four straight seasons of 32+ starts, 192+ innings, and sub-3.50 ERA will earn you that distinction. He’s a heavy ground ball pitcher who locates several plus pitches extremely well. Velocity? Who needs it when you can keep hitters off balance and go deep into games with the help of a 4.00+ K/BB ratio. If there are any knocks against Webb, look at his climbing BAIBP and leakage in ground ball rate since 2023. But I am splitting hairs a bit for a 29-year-old who projects in the low-3.00s for 4+ WAR. There’s plenty to like about having two workhorses atop the rotation.

Justin Verlander’s one-season layover in San Francisco before returning to Detroit ended up being fairly successful for a pitcher in his 40s. 29 starts, 152.0 innings, and a 3.85 ERA were far from bad. His first half 4.70 ERA, not so much. But the bounceback year of sorts paid dividends in the second half via a 2.99 ERA. Now the Giants instead turn to free agent veterans Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser to fill out the 2026 rotation. Mahle’s return from Tommy John surgery was interrupted by shoulder fatigue, limiting him to just 16 starts. But the 31-year-old located his pitches very well and finished with a 2.18 ERA and 3.37 FIP/4.43 xFIP. Both of these incoming righties pencil out around the 4.00 mark with 25+ start, 140+ inning targets.

Who Emerges From the Crowd?

Of all the starting pitcher prospect depth, the more under-the-radar option Landon Roupp rose to the top last season. The signs were there as his 2024 debut was a promising indicator other than a 12.0% walk rate. Then the 27-year-old took a bigger bite of the apple in 2025, delivering a 3.80 ERA and 3.91 FIP/4.10 xFIP over 106.2 innings. He’s expected to fill the #5 slot with similar expectations to last year’s output. Not bad, though his projections don’t necessarily blow you away either.

Former top prospect Hayden Birdsong was not able to improve on his 2024 debut’s 4.75 ERA and may have fell out of favor as the next man up. Fortunately, the Giants have a new crop knocking at the door consisting of Carson Whisenhunt, Blade Tidwell, and Trevor McDonald. All three have reached the MLB but this exposure has not been significant. San Francisco’s current slate of starters will leave the door open for some or all of these guys to earn their shots in 2026. Although their impacts aren’t expected to be substantial at this point, the rotation scenario should be different in 2027.

All things considered, the 2025 rotation was slightly surprising given the questions surrounding everyone but Logan Webb. Robbie Ray’s health is very important in the sense that this group needs two pillars to hold up the shakiness elsewhere. Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser have not been the types to reliably go deep into games. And the Giants’ depth is interesting but not necessarily the kind that will move the needle substantially in 2026. Maybe it all comes together nicely. But if you’re playing the percentages, this year’s rotation likely drops a couple wins as the prospects work to get a better foothold on the future.

— Bullpen —

Make no bones about it, the bullpen was a success in the context of a .500 team. Not only did they post the 4th best ERA (3.48), Giants’ relievers had a 34-27 record while saving 41 of 60 opportunities. They did it by putting the ball in play for the most part and making outs in the field. A 13th best 2.55 K/BB ratio is testament to not walking many hitters versus ringing them up and sitting them down. All in all, the 2025 bullpen produced better than in previous seasons, just without the sizzle.

Unfortunately, 2026 looks to be more of an uphill climb. The bullpen’s next big thing, 26-year-old right-hander Randy Rodriguez had Tommy John surgery as the season wrapped up. Former big thing Camilo Doval was traded to the Yankees at the deadline, one day after left-hander Tyler Rogers was sent to the Mets. These were the Giants’ three most productive relievers last season. And two of them did not play the entire year in San Francisco.

SFG Bullpen Losses

	G	IP	ERA	FIP/xFIP	WAR
R Rodriguez (R)	50	50.2	1.78	2.40/2.90	1.4
T Rogers (L)	53	50.0	1.80	2.64/2.75	0.9
C Doval (R)	47	46.2	3.09	3.22/3.75	0.6
TOTAL	150	147.1	2.20	2.74/3.12	2.9

Needless to say, the front office’s approach to shoring up the bullpen is an interesting one. Missing 2.9 of last year’s 3.5 WAR needs a response. To be fair, Ryan Walker’s disappointing follow up to a brilliant 2024 breakout should swing back the other way. The 30-year-old righty allegedly fixed his mechanics in the offseason, so low-3.00s projections may actually be sleeping on him. Otherwise, key additions were limited to Sam Hentges and Jason Foley who will begin the season on the IL. They have track records to support numbers in the 3.00s but uncertainty surrounds both their performance and availability.

JT Brubaker is fine in long relief to mop up innings. Erik Miller returns from an elbow strain as a suitable setup man with the likes of Joel Peguero and Jose Butto, who could be decent – or just as easily be mediocre. Up-and-coming starters should get reps in the bullpen much like last season. Whatever it takes to not lose too much value from 2025’s torchbearers who won’t be a factor for San Francisco in 2026. Our guess is Hentges and Foley will determine if the Giants relief corps stays level or dips from last year.

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Arizona Diamondbacks 2026 Win Total: Open 78.5, Now 79.5

2025 Result: Under 86 (80-82 / Pythag: 82)

The Diamondbacks continue to search for the spark that propelled them through the postseason gauntlet into the 2023 World Series. They fell just short of a playoff berth in 2024 then circled the .500 mark all of last year. Once again, Arizona’s rotation was snake bit by injury between the much maligned Jordan Montgomery and big free agent pickup Corbin Burnes. But that was the least of their worries as the bullpen struggled to put away games in spite of a highly productive offense. The market doesn’t see the D-backs taking advantage of growing parity in the NL West below the Dodgers. Do you?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• M Kelly (SP-R)
• N Arenado (3B)
• C Santana (1B)
• T Clarke (RP-R)
• M Soroka (RHP)
• P Sewald (RP-L)

Subtractions:

• J Beeks (RP-L)
• J McCarthy (OF)
• B Alexander (INF)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 78 – 80

— Rotation —

Adding Corbin Burnes last winter was a huge shot in the arm for a rotation lacking a bona fide ace. And, for a couple of months, he delivered as advertised. 11 starts into the season with a 2.66 ERA, Burnes went down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. That left the Diamondbacks rotation to float in mediocrity even though the group posted nearly a half-run improvement in the second half. Healthy seasons from Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez created a sense of stability as they combined for 523.0 innings in 95 starts.

Notwithstanding Corbin Burnes’ injury – which will keep him out for most of 2026 – the rotation fell quite a bit short of our expectation for a 3-4 win improvement. 30-year-old Zac Gallen’s rise to ace status in 2023 certainly looks like a peak at this point. The knuckle curve that served him well has fallen off the map as his K/BB ratio dropped from 4.00+ to the mid-2.00s. He once boasted mid-3.00s performance across the board until 2025 when the right-hander’s hard contact turned into home runs at a career-worst rate. Regardless of Gallen’s 4.00+ projections, general manager Mike Hazen brought the free agent back on a one-year deal to head up the 2026 rotation.

Making Do With What You’ve Got

Zac Gallen’s longtime partner in crime Merrill Kelly returns home after he was dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline. Arizona got the best of the 37-year-old before the trade (3.22 ERA, 3.58 FIP/3.70 xFIP) plus they gained a few starting pitching prospects including Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt. Kelly works the strike zone, induces ground balls, and typically delivers depth to his starts. A minor issue with his back may not be a big issue after all. That’s good news considering manager Torey Lovullo is counting on Kelly and Gallen for 340+ innings at the 4.00 mark to lead this group.

Veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez comes off of back-to-back (barely) 5.00+ seasons in Arizona, though he was able to stay on the field much more last year. Two years of BABIPs north of .320 and career high home run rates are worrisome given the degradation of his pitch quality. E-Rod is needed to plug the gap from prospect Cristian Mena’s recent injury setbacks and the potential for a delayed start to Brandon Pfaadt’s season. Despite Pfaadt continuing to underperform his peripherals, Lovullo needs him to hang tight for another 30+ start campaign. He’s been very hittable and 2025’s 6.4% jump in hard contact really stung. Of course Brandon gets 4.00+ projections in line with the previous season’s 4.22 FIP/4.01 xFIP. But I’ll be damned if I fall for his tricks on a start-by-start basis.

28-year-old Ryne Nelson was sneaky good once called back into rotation duty upon losing Corbin Burnes. A .249 BABIP as a starter certainly helped matters, as his 3.16 ERA came with a 3.91 FIP/4.22 xFIP that points to 4.00-ish projections in 2026. Plus Nelson reportedly put in work over the offseason to have more staying power through the campaign. So if they can milk 4-5 more starts out of him at that effectiveness, the rotation will be better for it.

Holding Their Breath

The burgeoning prospect pipeline has some promising arms like Cristian Mena, Mitch Bratt, and Kohl Drake. 23-year-old Mena’s issues include injury setbacks and struggles in the Minors. Bratt and Drake may still be another year out from truly impacting the rotation as well. This is where Michael Soroka’s comeback trail has led to: a swingman role to support the bottom of the rotation. Much to Arizona fans’ dismay, he’s not the sexiest acquisition by any means. However, Soroka’s low-4.00 underlying numbers are worth a shot for this unit seemingly stuck in neutral.

Though not unique to the Diamondbacks, the lack of impactful depth mixed with injury concerns leaves this rotation on thinner ice than most. Gallen, Nelson, and Kelly are the types to carry a heavy burden but not necessarily blow anyone away. We aren’t nearly as bullish on the Arizona rotation as last offseason; Corbin Burnes’ injury being a considerable part of the assessment. The likely result in 2026 is similar to 2025 with a familiar cast of characters, though a small amount of upside is attainable if the core stays healthy.

— Bullpen —

We also whiffed on expecting improvement from last year’s bullpen. Instead, Arizona relievers’ value dropped 2.5 wins down to -0.3 WAR. Part of this drop can be attributed to the rotation picking up nearly 60 additional innings. But the MLB’s 4th worst ERA (4.82) and not-much-better 4.38 FIP/4.42 xFIP are the real reasons for the falloff. This club desperately needs the bullpens of their more prolific 2023 and 2024 seasons that were good enough to support the lineup. If the Diamondbacks want to get back to the postseason, they have to hold down games in the late innings. That’s not a revolutionary thought – but I still have to say it.

To be fair, high-leverage stalwarts Justin Martinez and AJ Puk were both lost to elbow surgeries in June. Puk’s exit from service occurred just a couple weeks into the season after a very impressive transition from Miami at the 2024 trade deadline. Injury woes have been AJ’s Achilles’ heel if you will, as the southpaw’s stuff is so dynamic. He is expected back sometime in June or July with low-to-mid 3.00 projections. Martinez’ anticipated return is a couple months later than Puk’s after rehabbing from full Tommy John surgery. A similar range of projections face Justin, though his less-polished command makes him a very exciting – and tense – one to watch. The kid has some serious heat and gets tons of ground balls to help bail out all the walks he issued.

The Meat and Potatoes

Life goes on without Martinez and Puk…for now, anyways. Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson return as closer candidates along with free agent Paul Sewald. The latter came to Arizona at the 2023 trade deadline and rode out the 2024 season with middling results before a shoulder injury derailed his 2025 AL Central tenure. But I don’t see any projections south of 4.00, so Ginkel and Thompson look to be the more viable options. Ginkel waffles between low and high BABIPs as a ground ball pitcher who gets enough strikeouts to be dangerous. Thompson also relies heavily on grounders with an arsenal of really good, but not overpowering stuff. These three may not be prototypical closers, but they’re what Torey Lovullo has to work with until his hammers return from injury.

The D-backs rotation did not necessarily benefit from a handful of workhorses who ate innings. Yet the rotation picking up slack reduced the need for several 60+ inning guys. Though the 2026 bullpen will be without two of its volume leaders, Jalen Beeks and Shelby Miller. Plus they just lost left-hander Andrew Saalfrank to shoulder surgery in early February. There are some interesting middle relievers like Kade Strowd, Drey Jameson, and Brandyn Garcia who could be sub-4.00 contributors though. But the jury is still out on them. Veteran Taylor Clarke returns to Arizona and potential comeback story Jonathan Loaisiga could be a much-needed spark. All told, the pieces are in place for a modest improvement over a really rough 2025 season.

— Position Players —

In case you didn’t get the picture already, Arizona’s offense led the team once again. Granted, it was a step down from the monster season of a year ago when they scored the most runs in the MLB. Yet their 214 home runs, 791 runs scored, 109 wRC+, and 26.9 WAR all ranked in the top ten. A .251/.325/.433 slash line also claimed that same distinction with special mention to the league’s 3rd highest slugging percentage behind the Dodgers and Yankees. This was still a talented bunch, just less dynamic on the bases and with their gloves.

Even though beloved third baseman Eugenio Suarez was dealt back to Seattle at the trade deadline, he still led the club with 36 home runs via the highest hard contact rate of his career. My Cincinnati Reds will gladly take some of that power. In Suarez’ place comes Nolan Arenado on the downslope of his Gold Glove career. Multiple minor injuries hampered his final season in St. Louis but a healthier year ahead gets him back in the vicinity of a league-average bat. That’s still a far cry from Geno’s thunder at the plate. Even at the ripe age of 35, Arenado stands as a firm upgrade defensively at the hot corner.

Nolan shares the dirt with a highly talented middle infield tandem of Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo. Marte fields second base fine and has a plus-30% bat to go along with it. Some missed time on the IL and a little off-field controversy are seemingly things of the past, paving the way for another 4+ WAR campaign fueled by a slash line in the ballpark of .275/.360/.490. He’s still the best-hitting regular second baseman in the MLB. Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo is right up there with Ketel in terms of being one of the best hitters at their positions. The 26-year-old responded positively to his new 4-year/$45M contract with a 138 wRC+ and strong fielding that graded out at 7.1 WAR. Projections expect him to come off of this offensive peak and settle into the plus 10-20% range.

Loaded Up For Another Run

Last year’s step back with the lineup was foreseen, though on the lighter end of our 5-10% projection. The defensive downtick was also expected after Christian Walker and depth infielder Kevin Newman left town. The first base group led by Josh Naylor – before his trade to Seattle – dropped 18 Defensive Runs Saved and 12 Fielding Run Value. 40-year-old Carlos Santana comes in to save the day and revert the position’s fielding back to positive. But the glove-first veteran actually may not be a huge drag to this lineup spot. Even with Naylor’s first half 122 wRC+, the first base position group yielded the MLB’s 25th ranked 88 wRC+. That’s about the center point of Carlos Santana’s projections for the season ahead. Adding Santana and Arenado to the infield significantly improves the defense.

Santana likely shares time at first with Pavin Smith, the D-backs’ leading candidate for the DH spot until Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s repaired knee is ready for the outfield again. Fortunately, Corbin Carroll is not anticipated to miss much time after a broken hamate sidelined him throughout Spring Training. The 25-year-old was better than ever, slashing .259/.343/.541 with 32 stolen bases. His approach improved with experience. A 9% rise in hard contact was accompanied by more balls in the air, leading to a career-high 31 bombs. As for 2026, Carroll could lose 5-10% off of those huge numbers for another 4-5 WAR campaign.

A Jordan Lawlar/Alek Thomas tag team approach may be the play in center with Carroll in the lineup. There’s no room on the infield for Arizona’s top prospect graduate and he needs reps to kickstart his MLB career. So Lovullo may utilize a mild platoon in center to get near league-average hitting for the position. This year’s top prospect, Ryan Waldschmidt could get the call at some point to be the Diamondbacks’ fourth outfielder. If he doesn’t show enough to take the plunge, depth is on the weak side with Tim Tawa and Jorge Barrosa.

The Gabriel Moreno/James McCann catcher tandem returns to pick up where they left off. So McCann probably isn’t the 110 wRC+ hitter that we saw in his age-35 season. However, Gabi is a firmly plus-10% or better hitter. I’m hesitant to hit Arizona’s lineup with another projected downgrade but another 4-6% could be in store. Eugeino Suarez and Josh Naylor have been replaced with glove-first players. Plus Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo are all expected to lose something with their bats this season. Don’t get me wrong, these are still All-Star caliber players. They just happen to come off of career or near-career offensive seasons.

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Colorado Rockies 2026 Win Total: Open 54.5, Now 55.5

2025 Result: Under 59.5 (43-119 / Pythag: 44)

Change was seemingly inevitable after the Rockies put serious pressure on the Chicago White Sox’ fresh record for most losses in a season. They fell just two Ls short of tying this dubious distinction despite losing their last six games. That said, I’ll refrain from piling on with smart ass comments about this franchise. Coors Field is one of my favorite parks to have watched a game at. As for organizational change, manager Bud Black was let go in May in favor of third base coach Warren Schaeffer. Even more impactful is the replacement of general manager Bill Schmidt with Paul DePodesta. Yes, that Paul DePodesta. The one from the Moneyball A’s era who spent the last decade in the Cleveland Browns front office.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• M Lorenzen (SP-R)
• W Castro (UTL)
• J Quintana (SP-L)
• B Bernardino (RP-L)
• J McCarthy (OF)
• E Julien (2B)
• T Sugano (SP-R)

Subtractions:

• G Marquez (SP-R)
• M Toglia (1B)
• K Farmer (INF)
• O Arcia (INF)
• A Chivilli (SP-R)

BetCrushers 2026 Win Projection Range: 54 – 66

— Position Players —

When I set up the season-long trending offense plots for this year’s preview series I did not expect a team to dip below the 60 wRC+ mark, let alone do it twice. After all, it is a trend line that smooths out each individual day’s performance. Colorado’s lineup started slow and ended with a thud. Keep in mind that the Rockies get dinged harshly by the park-adjusted wRC+ given Denver’s atmospheric conditions. Even so, the league-low 74 wRC+ was their lowest mark in the 21st century.

Depending on where – or if – you started reading our 2026 preview series, you may have noticed that the Rockies are often the low bar that other teams are measured against. Case in point, the Rockies posted the only negative WAR (-3.7) for position players, nearly 10 wins below the White Sox. Despite stealing a modest 87 bases, they graded out as the worst base running team with the lowest on-base percentage (.293).

Defense was not a strong suit either. A -59 DRS put them at the bottom of the heap; -20 FRV paints a kinder picture at 23rd in the Majors. Making matters worse is trading their proficient fielding third baseman Ryan McMahon to the Yankees at the deadline, leaving that position up for grabs this year. How do the Rox successfully move on? One avenue is 23-year-old Kyle Karros – son of longtime Dodger first baseman Eric – a good defender who needs more work with the bat. But the safe route is flexible switch hitter Willi Castro who came to town on a two-year deal. He can man third base until Karros is ready for a timeshare.

Inconsistent Homegrown Talent

For better or worse, the Rockies have a roster full of players churned out by their farm system. High points include catcher Hunter Goodman, whose 3.4 WAR led all Colorado players last year. His 31 home runs – only 13 of which came at Coors Field – and a .278/.323/.520 slash line led to a park-adjusted 118 wRC+. Plus Goodman’s backstop skills graded out just fine. The 26-year-old’s wild BABIP swing between the 2024 and 2025 seasons calls for a bit of regression, though his projections are still fairly unified as a plus hitter even with the steep park adjustment. Backup Braxton Fulford still has to prove himself but could find additional playing time platooning in the DH spot.

Both shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and centerfielder Brenton Doyle lost their big power numbers of the 2024 campaign, coinciding with the team’s 7% overall offensive drop. They also faded defensively somewhat from the prior two seasons at these premium positions. Tovar lost his edge due to hip and oblique injuries but appears to be healthy and in line for a bounceback with his bat, legs, and glove. At 27, Brenton is three years older than Ezequiel and does not present as strong of an argument to rebound. However, his low was quite low (65 wRC+) so a 20% improvement at the plate is not out of the question.

Jake McCarthy and former first round pick Jordan Beck are front runners to anchor the corner outfield positions around Brenton Doyle. Beck saw extended time last year and made the most of it, slashing .258/.317/.416 with similar expectations in 2026. Fellow first-rounder ZacVeen tasted the Majors early in the season but was clearly not ready for the jump. Fortunately, his return to Triple-A was more encouraging. Either Veen or McCarthy will likely share time with someone like Tyler Freeman similar to last season’s right field configuration with Mickey Moniak. Moniak’s fielding took a severe nosedive in 2025, putting him in line for DH duties with the additional options in right.

No Shortage of Questions

Inexperience is the theme underlying the position player corps. 22-year-old second baseman Adael Amador has a prime opportunity to take over the position, improving on last year’s group that clocked in at 50 wRC+ and a -2.0 WAR value. However, acquiring Edouard Julien from the Twins signals that Amador’s arrival is a little while out. First base was another sore spot at 62 wRC+ and -3.1 WAR. Turns out, 2019 first round pick Michael Toglia was not the answer. Colorado may roll the dice on waiver claim Troy Johnston platooning with Blaine Crim as a replacement-level pairing at first. It’s not great but the bar is quite low.

Last winter, we looked for Colorado to gain 3-4% at the plate. Reality turned out to be quite the contrary. So last year had to be rock bottom…right? A healthy Ezequiel Tovar and upticks in center and right fields outweighs the defensive decline at third base without Ryan McMahon. Assessing just how much improvement to expect from the lineup is also tough with the potential for a lot of up-and-down action between the minors. There’s enough platoon combinations and new blood on the roster to drive a 5-10% offensive improvement back towards their 2024 profile.

— Rotation —

Starting pitching was not much better in Denver. In fact, the rotation’s 1.5 WAR was lowest in the MLB and the lowest of the franchise’s existence. The days of German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Kyle Freeland heading up a respectable rotation faded years ago, culminating in one last stand for this threesome. Marquez and Senzatela had a rough last three years; the former is out in free agency while the latter is expected to have a bullpen role in 2026. Just don’t lose sight of them carrying the highest innings load of all Colorado starters.

Kyle Freeland stood out among the bunch with a full 31-start campaign notching a 4.98 ERA and 4.18 FIP/4.29 xFIP worth 2.5 WAR. The arithmetic is simple from there. Everyone else contributed -1.0 WAR to the rotation. A lack of competitive arms plus the Coors Field effect yielded a league-worst 6.65 ERA, 5.51 FIP/5.04 xFIP, and 15.2% strikeout rate. Most games were lost before they made it past the starter, as evidenced by the rotation’s 22-93 record.

Rockies’ former #1 prospect Chase Dollander made his debut without much to show for it. That’s a mix of the environment he plays in, inexperience, and continued struggles with finding the strike zone. Dollander has good stuff but needs to gain control of his arsenal to keep his ERA under 6.00 this season. Tanner Gordon took a small step in the right direction without much to dazzle you, limiting his upside outside of tacking on another 10 starts or so. Plus injury setbacks after a promising 2024 “breakout” cloud Ryan Feltner’s outlook. These are all 5.00-ish guys considering about half of their starts will come in Colorado.

Shuffling the Deck

Left-hander Austin Gomber rejoins the organization on a Minor League contract after his least successful season with the Rockies. Acquired in the 2021 trade for Nolan Arenado, Gomber showed signs of a dependable rotation piece until everything fell apart in 2025 (7.49 ERA, 6.50 FIP/5.67 xFIP). Unless Austin gets back on track this spring, the collective hole left by him, Marquez, and Senzatela tallies up to 61 starts, 292.0 IP, and -0.1 WAR.

Colorado turns to three veteran free agents in their absence. Michael Lorenzen adds stability to the 2026 rotation as a broad arsenal 4.00+ righty. The downside is the 34-year-old does not typically pitch deep into games, so the Rockies’ ongoing issue of leaving a lot on the bullpen’s shoulders should persist. 37-year-old lefty Jose Quintana delivered about 5.5 innings/start in the last two seasons with 24+ starts in each. But his effectiveness – especially in the Coors Field environment – is up in the air given projections ranging from mid-4.00s to 6.00 ERA. Tomoyuki Sugano profiles similarly, though his home run woes last season with Baltimore are a red flag in his new home ballpark.

The prospect shelf is far from bare with McCade Brown, Carson Palmquist, and Gabriel Hughes knocking at the door. Brown is the highest rated of the group after retooling his delivery and finding more success in the Minors. Expect him to cut his teeth in the MLB with muted expectations as a sinker-heavy righty with a quality slider and curve. His teammate at Double-A Hartford, Sean Sullivan, could also make his way into the mix if his progression continues. Plus Jimmy Herget is getting some starts in Spring Training.

Kyle Freeland isn’t sexy but he knows the ropes at Coors Field and is generally reliable due to his command. A conservative 1-2 WAR projection for the veteran leader coupled with another win from Michael Lorenzen isn’t half bad compared to the 2025 rotation. From there, manager Warren Schaeffer will have a plenty of sub-1 WAR moving parts along the way of piecing together a 162-game campaign. Is a 3-5 win improvement believable with this crew?

— Bullpen —

I always seem to gloss over the Rockies bullpen each year in these previews. 2017 and 2022 stand out as very respectable years by any measuring stick. 2025 was certainly not one of those years. Although the Nationals bullpen carried a worse ERA and xFIP, Colorado’s group simply had too many rough pieces of the puzzle. Jimmy Herget was their most productive reliever in terms of value (1.3 WAR) with a 2.48 ERA over 83.1 innings. That’s a lot of work. And with the revolving door that is the Rockies rotation, you can see why he’s getting a crack as a starter.

We expected the bullpen to be the place to test drive their young pitchers, which did happen. It also became the final destination for veteran Antonio Senzatela where he is expected to work out of in 2026. Victor Vodnik and Juan Mejia showed that they can pitch a full season with a sub-4.00 ERA. But their outlooks call for something north of 4.00, which is still respectable given the situation. Brennan Bernardino is a good add but can’t be the only left-handed option in relief. I’m going to punt here and call for limited improvement over 2025 – just not enough to truly move the needle.

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2026 NL West Projected Standings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (104-58)
2. San Diego Padres (83-79)
3. San Francisco Giants (81-81)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83)
5. Colorado Rockies (58-104)

Just a Few Weeks Away

That’s five previews in the book and less than three weeks remain until Opening Day! If you’re behind on season prep, be sure to visit the MLB page at BetCrushers.com and get caught up with our division preview series. Want to stay in the loop? Be sure to follow us on X or subscribe below for email notifications: