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Handicapping the 2025 Opening Day Slate

Opening Day 2023

Last week’s two-game Tokyo Series appetizer course is over and done with. Now the 2025 Opening Day buffet is well within sight with 14 games served up. Colorado/Tampa Bay kicks off their seasons Friday. ICYMI, the Rays are playing their games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa this season while the Trop’s roof is in limbo. Time to break down the slate with early thoughts – and a little action – on the betting lines and key matchups. I’ll be on the road Friday so the MLB Morning Breakdown will make its 2025 season debut on Saturday. BOL and enjoy!

Note: The information contained below was up to date at the time of publishing Tuesday morning. Pitchers, injuries, and betting lines are subject to change.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ NEW YORK YANKEES – 3:05 ET (NYY -155, 8)

F Peralta (R) vs. C Rodon (L)

Notable Injuries

  • NYY – G Stanton (DH)

Partners in this winter’s Devin Williams/Nestor Cortes trade lead off the 2025 Opening Day slate at Yankee Stadium. New York flips the fully-rested bullpen advantage in their favor with the sub-2.00 ERA closer Williams in the saddle. Cortes, on the other hand, is slated to start the middle game of the series on Saturday. Devin’s relief unit may have a small edge in this full-availability situation, but don’t sleep on the Brewers’ deep and varied bullpen over the course of the season.

Milwaukee starting pitcher Freddie Peralta has yet to recapture his success of the 2021 season. When you boil it down, he’s still a solid sub-4.00 righty who gets plenty of swing-and-miss. His kryptonite: home runs and increasing hard contact. Case-in-point, Freddie got lit up for two home runs in his first and last Spring Training starts, bookending a pair of scoreless outings. And Yankee Stadium can be punishing when a right-hander is off his game. At least the breeze with gusts out to the short porch are mitigated by temperatures in the 40s.

How Big Are the Gaps?

The Yankees counter with southpaw Carlos Rodon as both Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil hit the IL this spring. Don’t be surprised if Rodon is not stretched out enough to work past the fifth inning. Expectations for the veteran left-hander are significantly more modest compared to the banner seasons of 2021-2022 that earned him the 6-year/$162M deal in the Bronx. Milwaukee finds themselves shorthanded in this split with star shortstop Willy Adames gone to San Francisco. Grapefruit League hot hitters Rhys Hoskins, William Contreras, and Jackson Chourio will need to pick up the slack to support Freddie Peralta.

New York left-handed hitters Austin Wells and newcomer Cody Bellinger have been raking this spring as has new first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. There’s little doubt that they are the better lineup from top to bottom even without slugging DH Giancarlo Stanton. The base running disparity between these teams remains a factor even though we project the gap to be narrower than last year. Looking for a meaty dog who is solid enough to pull the upset without needing all the cards to fall their way? Granted, Milwaukee looks less appetizing the further their price slips from the early opener.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS – 3:07 ET (BAL -115, 8.5)

Z Eflin (R) vs. J Berrios (R)

Notable Injuries

  • BAL – G Henderson (SS)
  • TOR – D Varsho (CF)

Zach Eflin gets the Opening Day nod for the Baltimore Orioles in this season-opening AL East tilt. Despite getting roughed up by the Pirates and Phillies before a solid Spring Training finale, the 30-year-old has established a sub-4.00 baseline as a ground ball control-oriented pitcher with a lengthy arsenal. If his rough spring persists into the opener, Baltimore has a deep and effective bullpen with capable middle relievers (Cano, Soto, Perez) and tough left-handers that can attack the weakness of the Blue Jays lineup.

That weakness was partially mitigated by Toronto signing former Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander to a big contract this winter. The switch hitter adds more pop and reliability as an everyday player with a plus-20% bat. And that pop is much needed with George Springer struggling and the speedy Daulton Varsho starting the season on the IL. A healthy, resurgent Bo Bichette goes a long way toward maintaining the MLB’s best defense and improving the lineup, especially against lefties. It doesn’t hurt that Bo swung a red hot bat in Grapefruit League action.

Any Help They Can Get

The Jays hope Jose Berrios’ positive preseason points toward the lower end of his 4.00+ projections. I like Berrios and respect him greatly as a 190-inning workhorse. But it’s tough to expect dominance as a ground ball pitcher with a 20% strikeout rate. That said, Jose pitched quite well this spring and should get into the 6th inning unless things go down the tubes for him early.

If there is a saving grace for Toronto, Baltimore will be without star shortstop Gunnar Henderson. The 2023 AL Rookie of the Year is a plus-40-50% hitter who is especially dangerous against a right-hander like Berrios. In the meantime, Manager Brandon Hyde shifts his infield around and likely plugs a capable Ramon Urias into the mix. The O’s still threaten with a top three lineup in Henderson’s absence, so no disagreement with the bookmakers on the price or total.

BOSTON RED SOX @ TEXAS RANGERS – 4:05 ET (TEX -105, 7.5)

G Crochet (R) vs. N Eovaldi (R)

Notable Injuries

  • BOS – M Yoshida (DH)

The 2023 World Series Champions begin their rebound bid after a tough 2024 campaign bogged down by injuries and underperformers. They face a hungry Red Sox club who was very active this winter, inking third baseman Alex Bregman and trading for Opening Day starter Garrett Crochet. The 25-year-old lefty is in prime form this spring (0.57 ERA, 1.66 FIP/1.99 xFIP), striking out a ton of batters, getting a ton of ground balls, and yielding just a single run in 15.2 innings. It’s a classic small sample scenario but a good indication that the big-K, heavy-grounder formula that worked so well last year is translating nicely into 2025.

Counterpart Nathan Eovaldi is a 4.00 veteran who gets tons of ground balls and whiffs at the expense of the long ball. He’s tough to beat when his pinpoint command is dialed in, which has been somewhat up and down this spring. Boston’s lineup shuffle precipitated by Masataka Yoshida’s shoulder injury gets a little easier with Wilyer Abreu defeating an intestinal virus that held him down earlier this spring. Rafael Devers takes the DH spot with Bregman fitting comfortably at the hot corner, leaving second base open for what could be Kristian Campbell’s MLB debut.

These teams have plenty of similarities throughout our ratings. The key differentiator is right there in the tale of the tape graphic: starting pitcher. Take even money to back Garrett Crochet over a respectable Nathan Eovaldi? I’m willing to go there fully knowing that Red Sox games will be sweaty in the late innings. If you’re into this sort of thing, look out for the first 5 inning markets if a short price is available to target Crochet.

WAGER: Red Sox -102

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ WASHINGTON NATIONALS – 4:05 ET (PHI -170, 7)

Z Wheeler (R) vs. M Gore (L)

Notable Injuries – N/A

Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler and his superb repertoire rounded into form in his last couple Spring Training starts. In the season-long picture, super-effective secondaries and precision with the four-seamer earn low-3.00 projections. Plus the guy regularly delivers 200 innings. The trifecta of whiffs, grounders, and weak contact are tough to beat when dialed in. Washington counters with left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who the club expects to take another step forward after a successful 2024. This season should gauge whether he has high-BABIP stuff or just brutal luck due in part to a rough defense behind him. His .349 BABIP and big whiff numbers this spring point towards more of the same; some outstanding starts and others where MacKenzie gets nickled and dimed to death.

I’m admittedly low on the upstart Nationals this season, though not for a lack of talent. The young core that includes Dylan Crews, James Wood, and CJ Abrams received an infusion of veteran leadership with Josh Lowe and Josh Bell on the roster. As good as Zack Wheeler is, the Nats should hit much better against right-handed pitching with Lowe, Bell, Wood, and Abrams leading the way. Along that same line, the Phillies have a top five lineup against southpaws. Note that Gore was fairly effective against this vaunted lineup last season.

Philly’s bullpen has a loaded high-leverage half and presents plenty of options with three strong lefties (Strahm, Alvarado, Banks). Their notable gap above the Nats’ relief unit is in play, though downplayed a bit in the opener with full availability on both sides. This is a big number to lay behind Philadelphia considering their key lineup cogs are not quite in regular season form. Then again, Washington’s regulars haven’t begun to click either. Those who are higher on the Nationals overall this season will likely find value on the big home dog.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ CINCINNATI REDS – 4:10 ET (CIN -120, 7.5)

L Webb (R) vs. H Greene (R)

Notable Injuries

  • CIN – S Steer (1B/OF)
  • CIN – T Stephenson (C)
  • CIN – A Diaz (RHP – CL)

It’s usually the best day of the season for us Reds fans. Parade downtown. Sold out opener. Undefeated. Hope surrounds the 2025 club and new manager Terry Francona even though last year’s injury woes have not been completely put to bed. Bat-first Spencer Steer is not ready for Opening Day and catcher Tyler Stephenson is dealing with an oblique injury. Cincinnati has enough depth to cover these two in game #1, especially behind the dish where strong defender Jose Trevino takes over in the interim.

The time is now for Hunter Greene to parlay last year’s success into a bigger workload to lead Cincy’s rotation. Greene had a clunky Spring Training with some bright spots intermixed. He is facing regression from 2024’s .237 BABIP but still earns a sub-4.00 outlook for the most part. To make matters tougher, Hunter has a hot-hitting group to cool down on Thursday. Big free agent signee Willy Adames hit the ground running in camp along with the extended Matt Chapman and LaMonte Wade.

A Tough Nut To Crack

Logan Webb looks to pitch into the 6th inning is his fifth straight Opening Day start as a pitch-to-contact ace who has lost some of his early-career edge. Still, we’re talking about low-3.00+ stuff that could be tricky for a Reds lineup missing a couple key bats. Fortunately for the home team, Elly De La Cruz and former Dodger Gavin Lux hit well this spring. They are pivotal players that must be on point to crack San Francisco’s stout starter who was very stingy this spring. Webb will hand the ball over to a good high-leverage group accompanied by serviceable middle relief if all goes well.

The Reds being without closer Alexis Diaz strains their already-shaky bullpen. There is a lot yet to be settled in their relief unit, though I am not high on this group as a whole through the full season. One matchup of note is Giants’ catcher Patrick Bailey’s ability to control the run game. The strong defender will be tested by an aggressive running lineup featuring Elly, TJ Friedl, and Matt McLain. I’m on the sidelines for this one but obviously tuning in as a fan.

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS – 4:10 ET (KCR -135, 7.5)

T Bibee (R) vs. C Ragans (L)

Notable Injuries – N/A

Tanner Bibee was behind in Spring Training preparations but got up to speed quickly. The Guardians front office likes what they see, prompting a 5-year, $48M extension for the 26-year-old righty with a club option in 2030. Bibee’s second outing featured 6.0 scoreless innings with 1 hit against Cincinnati – a good sign of him being ready to take on a Royals lineup with a lot of room for improvement. Bobby Witt Jr., Jonathan India, and Michael Massey hit well in camp, posing the biggest threats to the sub-4.00 right-hander. However, impact left-handed hitter Vinnie Pasquantino has not yet found his form.

The Cleveland offense’s expected downtick runs into the teeth of Cole Ragans on the heels of a breakthrough season in the rotation. 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP/3.46 xFIP over 186.1 innings with a 14.4% whiff rate opened a lot of eyes. Ragans’ boom-or-bust Spring Training regimen makes him challenging to pin down in this one though. We expect the Guardians lineup to have an edge against left-handed pitching, although that has not necessarily come to fruition in camp.

Even though we are bracing for regression with several of Cleveland’s 2024 over-performing relievers, Emmanuel Clase is the real deal. In a full-availability scenario like Opening Day, these two units are very close when it comes to their high-leverage sections. Weather in Kansas City looks superb with temps in the 70s and a breeze straight out to center making a position on the over worth while. Cole Ragans could very well dial up a shutdown outing but my numbers lead me elsewhere.

WAGER: Guardians/Royals Over 7.5 +105

NEW YORK METS @ HOUSTON ASTROS – 4:10 ET (HOU -130, 8)

C Holmes (R) vs. F Valdez (L)

Notable Injuries

  • NYM – F Alvarez (C)
  • NYM – J McNeil (2B)

Injuries to Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas thrust converted reliever Clay Holmes into the Opening Day starter role to kick off the 2025 season. Holmes pitched well this spring aside from walking 3 batters in a pair of starts, which bodes well for his first start since his 2018 rookie season. Manager Carlos Mendoza could really stand to have Clay eat some innings this year with his heavy sinker and sharp slider. Five innings against Houston’s potent lineup pairs well with a decent bullpen, allowing the Mets lineup keep them in the game.

The Mets’ offense enters the season after a sleepy spring, other than Juan Soto of course. They face a tough customer in Framber Valdez, a low-3.00s sinker-baller who is highly effective in his own right. Framber’s handedness splits tendencies could be tricky against a lineup who should hit lefties well once again this season. But are they up for the challenge right out of the box? That could be the most important question in this matchup, especially with Valdez facing a weak Marlins lineup in 3 of his 5 spring outings.

And it’s not like the Astros have been lighting up opposing pitchers in camp either. With Kyle Tucker shipped to the Cubs, the formidable Yordan Alvarez stands as the sole left-handed hitter in Houston’s everyday lineup. Alvarez (.147/.171/.235) and left fielder Jose Altuve (.184/.256/.342) struggled in limited action this spring. Both teams have top-heavy bullpens that project to be on the good side of average. The opener around pick ’em is fair given the questions with both lineups at this point; offerings of +115 or better make the Mets an interesting side.

ATLANTA BRAVES @ SAN DIEGO PADRES – 4:10 ET (ATL -130, 7)

C Sale (L) vs. M King (R)

Notable Injuries

  • ATL – R Acuna Jr. (OF)
  • ATL – S Murphy (C)

Reigning NL Cy Young Award and Triple Crown winner Chris Sale takes the bump with continued big expectations for the 35-year-old southpaw. Home run avoidance was the cherry on top of a 2.38 ERA, 2.09 FIP/2.64 xFIP season where weak contact and tons of whiffs and ground balls negated a .314 BABIP. As for Thursday’s tilt, Sale could benefit from a lineup that fell off a cliff against left-handed pitching. But this Padres lineup has bigger plans in 2025, including a Xander Bogaerts rebound. Apparently Gavin Sheets is the man with the plan who earned a roster spot this spring after his unshackling from the White Sox.

San Diego’s Michael King struggled with command in camp after an impressive full season in the rotation. The club’s gamble on converting King to a full-time starter paid off in spades: 173.2 innings of 2.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP/3.50 xFIP production. A mid-3.00 outlook plays well alongside the Padres’ potent lineup, especially if his final warmup is a better indicator of his Opening Day readiness compared to the middle two outings. Plus King plays against what should be the Braves’ weaker side without elite outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. until sometime in May and catcher Sean Murphy for a few more weeks.

Atlanta’s small edges across the board aren’t quite enough to justify laying the price on the road. Confidence in Chris Sale and/or the Padres potential struggles against quality southpaws may make a first 5 innings position worthwhile though. Weather looks nice and near neutral at Petco Park (shocker), making the total of 7 reasonable given the starting pitchers.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX – 4:10 ET (LAA -155, 8)

Y Kikuchi (L) vs. S Burke (R)

Notable Injuries

  • LAA – Z Neto (SS)
  • CHW – A Benintendi (OF): Could return for Opening Day
  • CHW – J Rojas (INF)
  • CHW – A Slater (OF)

The graphic just about says it all. And it’s especially interesting considering that the edges across the larger categories all go to the Los Angeles Angels of all teams. We took a long position on the White Sox’ win total considering their rock bottom price, but that hasn’t masked the reality of their shorthanded lineup and generally questionable pitching staff. The ChiSox had a rough Spring Training, losing outfielders Andrew Benintendi (fractured hand) and Austin Slater (strained oblique), as well as infielder Josh Rojas (fractured toe). I see rumblings that Benintendi could be ready for Opening Day to bolster Miguel Vargas’ and Luis Robert Jr.’s solid spring performances.

Yusei Kikuchi’s strong second half with the Astros flipped into a 3-year, $63M deal in Anaheim. Career-high innings meshed with a 4.05 ERA, roughly about where projections put him for 2025. As a contact pitcher who gives up hard hit balls, Kikuchi can’t afford to backslide on another career high: the 28.0% K rate. Though it doesn’t hurt Yusei’s cause that the Chicago White Sox aren’t the worst team to face on Opening Day.

Chicago counters with 25-year-old Sean Burke – a guy with 19.0 MLB innings under his belt. Respect to manager Will Venable for throwing him into the fire and sending a message to his club. We’ll see if he is dialed in and catches some breaks against a suspect Angels lineup. Otherwise, Burke has not been sharp in camp and leaves the door open for the Halos. Trust the Angels to win by margin? Work yourself up a -1 run line and get a better deal on both ends of the position.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ MIAMI MARLINS – 4:10 ET (PIT -160, 6.5)

P Skenes (R) vs. S Alcantara (R)

Notable Injuries

  • PIT – S Horwitz (1B)
  • MIA – J Sanchez (OF)
  • MIA – A Nardi (LHP – SU)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins begin with a rare Opening Day rematch from the prior season. Pittsburgh rallied late to start 2024 with a win, taking the opener 6-5 in 12 innings. Flash forward one year and Sandy Alcantara is a +135 dog to the Pirates. Shocker? Maybe not, as National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes happened in the meantime. Pure gas plus a menu of secondaries earn the 22-year-old sub-3.00 projections as he steps into a full MLB season. The Cy Young Award favorite will be a two handfuls for this stripped down Marlins offense.

Uncertainty surrounds whether Sandy Alcantara will be on an innings diet to begin the season. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner returns from Tommy John surgery rehab and is ramping nicely into Opening Day duties. Skenes has the leg up on his counterpart, who is pegged for upper-3.00 numbers as he works back toward the dominant form of 2021-2022. Sandy catches a bit of a break himself against an iffy Pirates lineup that also has not hit much this spring.

I won’t say that laying -160 behind Skenes is egregious right out of the box against a rough Marlins squad. My trouble is discounting Sandy Alcantara after a promising spring. Sandy may be a fraction of his peak right now but begs a better look at the dog with two unreliable bullpens in play. The total of 6.5 reflects these starting pitchers as much as it does the lineups they will attempt to hold in check.

MINNESOTA TWINS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – 4:15 ET (STL -110, 7.5)

P Lopez (R) vs. S Gray (R)

Notable Injuries

  • MIN – R Lewis (3B)

Twins’ ace Pablo Lopez takes on a Cardinals lineup that is largely unchanged from 2024. It’s not for a lack of trying though, as the front office attempted to unload the contracts of veterans Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras over the winter. Lopez established a solid upper-3.00s baseline over the last few seasons with great command and pitch-to-ground-ball effectiveness. Most of Spring Training was spent getting a handle on his stuff, as evidenced by a 6.62 ERA and 4.25 FIP/4.38 xFIP in 5 outings.

Former rotation mate Sonny Gray spiked a 30%+ strikeout rate for the first time in his career outside of the shortened 2020 campaign. Mid-3.00s expectations give Gray a slight edge over Lopez, however, Spring Training has not been kind to him either. Is the flu to blame for the velocity drop? If that’s not the case, persisting struggles would conceivably balance the starting pitcher advantage. At that point, 4-5 mediocre innings out of these two rolls into Minnesota’s stronger suit – the middle relief area of the bullpen. High-leverage arms look very good on both sides, headed up by closers Jhoan Duran and Ryan Helsley.

Both offenses were awfully quiet in camp, further complicating this handicap. Minnesota is down third baseman Royce Lewis but otherwise healthy among the position player corps. St. Louis compensates by hitting to their strong side against the right-hander Lopez. My range is wide and surrounds the 50/50 mark. The side is a pass for me without good enough return on the Twins; the total is right where it needs to be.

DETROIT TIGERS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS – 7:10 ET (LAD -160, 6.5)

T Skubal (L) vs. B Snell (L)

Notable Injuries

  • DET – P Meadows (OF)
  • DET – W Perez (OF)
  • DET – M Vierling (UTL)
  • LAD – B Graterol (RHP – SU)
  • LAD – M Kopech (RHP – RP)
  • LAD – E Phillips (RHP – SU)

Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal starts the season fighting on two fronts. On one hand, he’s up against the reigning World Series Champions’ imposing lineup. On the other, Skubal goes toe to toe with 2x Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. Snell’s walk rate and shorter depth of start yield a half-run or more to Skubal and his elite 5+ K/BB ratio. Remember that L.A. dismissed a pair of left-handed starters presented by the Chicago Cubs in the Tokyo Series. That said, Tarik Skubal is undoubtedly on a higher level compared to Imanaga and Steele. This is strength versus strength and Tarik should work into the 6th inning, limiting exposure to what we project as a middling Tigers relief unit.

Detroit’s position player corps is generally the same as last season with the exception of second baseman Gleyber Torres. The former Yankee joins a lineup full of young upstarts including Colt Keith, who shifted to first base with Torres on board. Unfortunately outfielders Wenceel Perez, Parker Meadows, and Matt Vierling are sidelined for Opening Day. A shorthanded outfield anchored by Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter gets completed by Manuel Margot or Ryan Kreidler in the interim. By pulling Carpenter out of the DH spot, the embattled Spencer Torkelson is tapped into duty. Fortunately for the Tigers, Tork mashed in Spring Training (.326/.380/.609 thru 3/23/25) and is showing positional versatility.

Blake Snell benefits from a Detroit lineup that has generally fallen short against southpaws. A rejuvenated Spencer Torkelson and red hot Gleyber Torres could be the antidote that Tarik Skubal and the Tigers need to hang with the Champs though. My range for the side says to stay on the sideline if you aren’t getting paid enough to take a Tigers position. Keep your eyes open for the availability of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman as Opening Day approaches.

CHICAGO CUBS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – 10:10 ET (ARI -150, 8.5)

J Steele (L) vs. Z Gallen (R)

Notable Injuries

  • CHC – N Hoerner (2B): Should be ready for Opening Day

This battle between playoff hopefuls is one of two nightcaps wrapping up Opening Day. The Cubs got their regular season feet wet in the Tokyo Series though were ultimately overmatched by the Dodgers. Bolstered by former Houston standout Kyle Tucker, the Chicago lineup puts their 0-2 start behind them and looks to capitalize on a dynamic Pete Crow-Armstrong. Plus second baseman Nico Hoerner should be back in the saddle after missing the international openers. They’ll test their skills against Zac Gallen instead of Corbin Burnes, who was bumped to the fifth rotation slot to maintain his rest schedule.

Gallen and Cubs starter Justin Steele fit a certain mold for me. Despite the tough outing against the Dodgers, Steele earns a small edge in the head-to-head assessment with his counterpart. Even if Chicago’s left-hander wins that battle on paper the bigger war is the D-backs’ inclination toward punishing southpaws. Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez look especially primed for the task this spring. ICYMI, Arizona had one of the best lineups in all of baseball last year – right in the same conversation as the Dodgers and Yankees. And there is plenty of meat on the offense’s bone even after our stiff downgrade for 2025.

Arizona’s bullpen edge is not huge, though the double-barreled closer approach with lefty AJ Puk and young right-hander Justin Martinez could sneak up as one of the best duos in the Majors this season. Both teams have veteran-laden relief units that should be anything but liabilities. Yet we defer to the greater upside that Arizona’s better half presents in leverage situations.

THE ATHLETICS @ SEATTLE MARINERS – 10:10 ET (SEA -170, 7)

L Severino (R) vs. L Gilbert (R)

Notable Injuries

  • ATH – Z Gelhof (2B)
  • ATH – M Otanez (RHP – SU)

The second game in the late window features a peek into an AL West divisional race that should be very competitive. Teams facing Seattle’s formidable rotation have an uphill battle before the first pitch is even thrown. Especially so when squaring off against ace Logan Gilbert. The 27-year-old is about as stable of a pitcher as you want leading your staff. Plenty of strikeouts and grounders to go with superior walk avoidance challenges the best lineups in the game. If there’s any time to catch the low-3.00s ace, this might be it. Gilbert broke camp on a disappointing note and is set to start the season in a low-home run environment.

Now representing the East Bay via West Sacramento, the Athletics have been splashed about this offseason as a sneaky team to watch. I’d argue that last season was their “lying in wait” year as guys like Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler blew up. In the interest of meeting loftier expectations, the onus falls on guys like outfielder JJ Bleday and catcher Shea Langeliers to keep their newfound momentum and stabilize the lineup from regression. We still project the A’s as more effective against left-handed pitching, which is a rarity in this opening series with Seattle. Losing Zack Gelhof to hand surgery takes a little more wind out of those sails too.

Is the Juice Worth the Squeeze?

In this particular scenario, Seattle’s lineup strength against right-handed pitching has legs against Luis Severino. The 31-year-old jumped from New York City to California in one of the Athletics’ biggest free agent signings. His low-4.00s profile is pedestrian for an ace in many rotations but represents a stable upgrade for the A’s group. Don’t expect Severino to hold the Mariners in check without much swing-and-miss, especially if 2024’s weak contact phenomenon was a one-off. But T-Mobile Park is already tough enough to generate offense at on a nice day; Thursday forecasts cool with a breeze shifting to a crosswind.

Bullpen edge goes to Seattle in the big picture as well as in this game, especially if Logan Gilbert works through the 6th inning. Their Munoz-Santos pairing on the front end figures to be one of the toughest to combat. But a 5-inning outing by Gilbert exposes the unit’s middling bulk group to a hungry Athletics lineup. That said, the A’s bullpen is very lopsided with righties and super top-heavy with dominant closer Mason Miller and suitable setup man Jose Leclerc. Note that promising right-handed setup man Michel Otanez will miss the series on the IL. Otherwise, they have shaky middle relief that comes into play when Severino exits.

And We’re Off!

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