The Dodgers’ stranglehold on the NL West continued with an eleventh division title in the last twelve seasons. This time, however, the big payoff came to fruition. After two postseason runs stopped dead in their tracks by division foes, Los Angeles fought through a feisty Padres squad and the OMG Mets to dominate the Yankees in the World Series. That makes two titles in the last five years, causing so many fans to become Dodger haters. Between that and gobbling up premier free agents, the pitchforks and torches are being gathered. Holding the top spot isn’t the easiest thing in the world with stiff competition from within the 2025 NL West. The markets have all but given the division crown to L.A., so who is their biggest threat this season?
Another season in the books marks The BetCrushers’ 6th Annual Divisional Previews for the 2025 MLB season. We go as deep as we can to find value in the futures markets – with a special focus on regular season win totals. It’s a labor of love for a good purpose. We appreciate you all! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.A.)
2024 WORLD SERIES CHAMPION & Division Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 NL West Final Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)
- San Diego Padres (93-69)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)
- San Francisco Giants (80-82)
- Colorado Rockies (61-101)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Win Total: Open 101.5, Now 104.5
2024 Result: Under 103.5 (98-64 / Pythag: 96)
When you’re hot, you’re hot. Sure, the Dodgers missed their win total last year. And they fell short of the 100-win mark for just the second time in the last seven full seasons. So President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman and the front office did anything but rest on their laurels this winter, snagging two international free agents and three players from NL West rivals. Can anything stop this club from repeating? When it comes to the 2025 season, their postseason competition will need their A+ games to pull it off. But our focus is how the defending World Series Champions stack up for the regular season and another run at glory.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- K Yates (RP – RHP)
- T Scott (RP – LHP)
- Roki Sasaki (SP – RHP)
- Hyeseong Kim (INF)
- M Conforto (OF)
- B Snell (SP – LHP)
Subtractions:
- R Brasier (RP – RHP)
- G Lux (2B)
- B Honeywell (RP – RHP)
- J Flaherty (SP – RHP)
- J Kelly (RP – RHP)
- W Buehler (SP – RHP)
- D Hudson (RP – RHP)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 94 – 105
— Rotation —
It’s hard to poke holes at a team that stormed their way to a World Championship. Then again, rarely is any team without its flaws. For the second season in a row the Dodgers rotation left plenty of room for improvement. That’s a scary thought for their NL West foes, especially when poaching top tier arms from within the division and overseas. L.A. struck early in the offseason by inking AL & NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to a big, complicated contract after spending the last two seasons elsewhere in the division. Then they sniped prized 23-year-old NPB star right-hander Roki Sasaki out from underneath the Padres.
Sure, injuries made it very difficult for L.A. to hold together a consistent rotation down the stretch. But it’s not like the 2023 configuration was any better. Blake Snell brings his career 3.19 ERA and 3.35 FIP/3.57 xFIP to a group that just slogged through a modest 4.23 ERA and 4.28 FIP/3.98 xFIP. The double-edged sword with Snell is the age-old battle between quality and quantity. He has you covered with the former at the expense of the latter as a 5-inning guy…except in those two Cy Young seasons, of course. We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. After all, volume was an issue for a rotation that logged the sixth-fewest innings (797.2) in the MLB.
Improved reliability and quality are what Dave Roberts is looking for. His club won’t have Gavin Stone this season, nor will Walker Buehler or Jack Flaherty be around. Plus Emmet Sheehan joins top prospects River Ryan and Kyle Hurt in the 2024 Tommy John surgery camp. Yet this team was built with plenty of pitching depth as Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are set to return from Tommy John and esophageal surgeries, respectively. And lest we forget, Shohei Ohtani is expected back on the mound in 2025.
An Embarrassment of Riches
The hype surrounding Japanese standout Roki Sasaki is real. Prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen summed it up well: “When he’s been fully operational, his fastball has averaged nearly 99 mph, he has an elite splitter, and his slider became a useable weapon in 2022.” The first clause in that statement recognizes Sasaki’s injury risk that drags down his projected workload. Even at a modest 20+ start, 120+ inning base projection, his 3.00+ stuff still returns a 3+ WAR much like Blake Snell.
Integrating enough downside into the volume mix for all of the Dodgers’ starting pitchers is important. Gavin Stone led the club in innings pitched with an unspectacular 140.1 before a shoulder injury sidelined him through the 2025 season. Injury-plagued Tyler Glasnow was right behind him with 134.0 IP in his career season. The ironic part is you can put each of Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, Sasaki, and Gonsolin on the 20-25 start plan and arrive at a 13-15 WAR value that exceeds the rotation’s 10.1 figure in 2024.
Back to the minors go Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, and Justin Wrobelski after gaining MLB experience. Shohei Ohtani is penciled in for 20 or so starts and Clayton Kershaw could return to the fold for a handful more. For a group with so much “uncertainty” there aren’t a ton of questions about how good they are. Well, there are questions but more along the lines of “how great?”. Never mind a guy like Dustin May trying to find his way back into the fold. The rotation gained much more than it lost, garnering a projected 7-8 win increase over 2024 with a bolstered group full of sub-4.00 quality arms.
— Bullpen —
Losses from L.A.’s top ten bullpen are minimal and have generally been offset. The unit will miss Brusdar Graterol’s services for most of 2025 after shoulder surgery. The Joe Kelly experience looks to be over with and Daniel Hudson retired on the heels of a 63.0-inning farewell in which he worked around a whopping 49.4% hard hit rate and .225 BABIP. Their combined 93.0 innings and blended replacement-level work will be missed but should be easily replaced by a full season of Michael Kopech and incoming veterans Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates. All three are susceptible to walks from time to time, though their strikeout abilities generally outweigh that downside. This relief unit greatly needs strikeouts after posting the MLB’s 19th-best 23.3% K rate. These three help that cause.
A bolstered middle relief group should reduce the workload of their late-inning counterparts. Make no bones about it, this bullpen is as good or perhaps better with greater overall quality. Manager Dave Roberts has an abundance of closer-types in the ‘pen to lock down critical innings with. Veterans Scott, Yates, and Blake Treinen are all up for the challenge. The latter does it with ground ball effectiveness and enough deception to keep hitters off balance. The bulk portion of the group stands tall with rock solid relievers like Evan Phillips and Anthony Banda in place as low-to-mid 3.00s guys. Note that Phillips will have a late start to his season recovering from a rotator cuff injury. Alex Vesia has a .193 BABIP to deal with moving forward but dishes out plenty of Ks to mitigate a disastrous regression. What more can you say about the bullpen? Let’s move on.
— Position Players —
As one would expect from a World Series Champion that wasn’t carried by its pitching staff, the offense had to be elite. And it was. No splits weaknesses. Plenty of power; only two teams out-homered them. They ran the bases very well, swiping bags at a 85.5% conversion rate. I would say the only thing up in the air are L.A.’s defensive grades. DRS loves them but Statcast FRV says meh. Another example of “you can’t please everyone” with fielding metrics.
Getting Settled In the Outfield
One of the few questions we had with the position player group last winter was center field. Would James Outman secure the job? What role will Manuel Margot play in the outfield mix? Well, Margot was traded to Minnesota two days after publishing our preview. Outman failed to launch. Yet all was not lost. A new candidate rose from Spring Training to take the outfield by storm: Andy Pages. The rookie smashed left-handed pitching while being serviceable in center field when put there. If anything, Pages can secure a spot on the 2025 26-man roster as outfield depth and a platoon bat. Projections are optimistic for an additional 10% at the plate – in part, based on deploying him more strategically – and better defensive contributions as a corner outfielder.
Andrew Friedman’s bunch wasn’t completely distracted by the international talent market. They reunited with outfielder Teoscar Hernandez on a three-year deal after dispelling concerns from his down 2023 season in Seattle. Cautious estimates call for a small decline as a 32-year-old everyday outfielder though. A few weeks prior, free agent outfielder Michael Conforto was signed. The veteran left-handed hitter is also fresh off of an offensive rebound – one that should be more indicative of his 2025 production. One aspect to get worked out is whether he needs an occasional platoon partner like Andy Pages. Conforto is a strong upgrade over the pool of players like Jason Heyward, Enrique Hernandez, etc. that rounded out last year’s outfield.
Now we come full circle to the center field conversation. With Dave Roberts telegraphing Mookie Betts’ move back to shortstop, the other shoe to drop is Tommy Edman taking on regular duties in center. Injury concerns keep guys like Andy Pages and James Outman in the conversation for playing time there as well. But Edman showed that he has the skills to play this demanding position even if rest days are part of managing his usage. Speed and fielding more than make up for a slightly below-average bat. Plus he has that infield/outfield flexibility for Roberts to utilize like the old days with Chris Taylor, who is still around as a utility player.
Back On the Dirt
Moving Mookie Betts back to shortstop – to begin the season, at least – has been a polarizing concept. But with two prototypical corner outfielders in Hernandez and Conforto on the roster, keeping Tommy Edman in the outfield makes sense. Betts’ fractured hand arguably had an impact on his game in the second half and may have been part of this decision to help reduce wear-and-tear. Whether this is truly good for the long haul, more playing time for Betts as shortstop leads to a defensive downgrade compared to the part-time work Miguel Rojas put in there. Although Rojas is getting long in the tooth and wouldn’t necessarily deliver the same caliber of fielding across a larger body of work.
Those fielding downgrades at short should get cancelled out by Betts’ new double play partner Hyeseong Kim. The 26-year-old KBO import takes over for Gavin Lux, who was traded to the Reds a few days after his signing. As much crap as the Dodgers take, they deserve credit for developing plans to upgrade their roster and executing them. Having a ton of cash to spend is another story altogether. As for the on-field product, Hyeseong theoretically provides better defense and comparable or better speed on the bases. Despite all the moves in the field, it makes sense to keep the Dodgers’ general defensive grades comparable to last year with minor position adjustments. Translating Kim’s bat skills from Korea to the MLB poses the biggest question, especially in regard to leveling out the lopsided splits that Lux leaves behind.
Do we truly know what Max Muncy will deliver over a full season? Last winter’s debate focused on whether the Dodgers would get the pre-2022 Muncy or the “less fortunate” version of the previous two seasons. The results echoed the old days (.232/.358/.494, 135 wRC+) but the 73-game sample shortened by an oblique injury leaves his 2025 projections up for debate. Even his fielding turned around. I see projections for a 5-15% pullback across a 500+ PA sample though. When you factor in all third base contributors from the 2024 season, Muncy at a 75% time share produces a 5-15% offensive upgrade and half-win of value for the 2025 position group.
Don’t Mess With Success
Freddie Freeman’s early-30’s rejuvenation in L.A. simmered a bit as his offensive production tailed off by 25% in 2024. His .282/.378/.476 slash line snapped a four-season streak of .300+ batting averages. Where to go with him in 2025? Well, our typical method for this situation is to baseline conservative estimates to stay on last year’s level but allow room for improvement. The end result is still a 4-WAR first baseman in the middle of a talented lineup. Not bad.
The Will Smith-Austin Barnes catcher tandem returns in full force after another top ten season. Smith’s gradual decline since becoming L.A’s primary backstop in 2020 accelerated last year as both halves of his game turned downwards. Our trusted projections call for more of a 2023 baseline to work with, representing small improvements from 2024. There’s also growing confidence that Barnes’ rough offensive 2023 season was just a blip on his profile.
Last, but most certainly not least, Shohei Ohtani needs addressed after his MVP-winning .310/.390/.646 slash line generated 9.1 WAR purely as a hitter. 54 home runs. 59 stolen bases. 59.5% hard hit rate. What more can you say? It’s not quite like the Cliffhanger guy on The Price Is Right where Ohtani keeps inching higher and higher until he falls off the cliff. His outlook is more like, at what point does he just find a “reasonable” baseline to grow into now that he is 30 years old? Another +80% year is possible though 60-70% is probable. Shohei’s return to the mound could compromise base stealing aggressiveness too. Put everything together and we’ll correct for a negative 4-6% adjustment to the offense with a slightly larger correction against right-handed pitching.
San Diego Padres 2025 Win Total: Open 88.5, Now 85.5
2024 Result: Over 90 (93-69 / Pythag: 90)
We severely underestimated these guys last year at this time, so why take our word on the state of San Diego Padres baseball? Good question. These guys were so close to advancing onto the NLCS but fell short at the hands of their loathed rivals in Los Angeles. A few names have come and gone this winter though the core remains in tremendous shape. Are they still a playoff-caliber squad? You bet. If depth is tested too much the calculus could change quite a bit though. This is a very interesting team to dive into, so let’s get after it.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- N Pivetta (SP – RHP)
- K Hart (SP – LHP)
- J Heyward (OF)
- C Joe (OF/1B)
Subtractions:
- J Profar (OF)
- H Kim (SS)
- T Scott (RP – RHP)
- K Higashioka (C)
- D Solano (INF)
- M Perez (SP – LHP)
- D Peralta (OF)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 79 – 85
— Rotation —
One of the best one-two starting pitcher combos in the MLB remains with the Padres’ rotation despite the faintest of trade rumors lingering in the early days of Spring Training. Last year’s pillars Dylan Cease and Michael King tallied 63 starts, 259.1 innings, and 8.8 WAR. The top-heavy rotation suffered from key injuries and turned to unproven depth to make ends meet. No other San Diego starting pitcher topped 143 innings, yet the group as a whole logged the tenth-most innings (867.1) and ranked 13th in ERA (3.91). In fact, Matt Waldron was the only other pitcher to exceed 100 innings pitched.
The Cease-King duo was nothing short of excellent, posting 3.47 and 2.95 ERAs, respectively, with low-to-mid 3.00 FIPs and xFIPs. Cease’s slider was as sharp as ever; increased use of King’s changeup paid off in spades. Mid-3.00 expectations across multiple projection systems are reasonable. 30+ starts put these two back comfortably in the 7-8 WAR range with upside if they repeat their dominant 2024 performances. It’s tough to expect both to remain at the top of their games but far from improbable.
Looking For Upside
Projecting the top two slots of the rotation is the easy part. Bolstering the group on the heels of last year’s tough breaks starts with 38-year-old Yu Darvish. He missed half the season dealing with injury and family matters, yet still worked around that adversity to post a 3.31 ERA across 16 starts. Despite a steadily declining strikeout rate, Darvish has a firm grip on his broad arsenal that managed to deliver an impressive 3.55 K/BB rate. He faces a rising hard contact rate and BABIP regression after a career-low .245. We put him on the 4.00 mark with 25 starts and 140 innings to arrive at a 2 WAR value similar to his 2023 campaign.
A relatively heathy season accounts for Darvish’s partial season as well as Martin Perez’ second half in San Diego. Unfortunately, Joe Musgrove will miss the vast majority or all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Front office head honcho AJ Preller went to the free agent market and signed Nick Pivetta to a four-year deal. Four seasons primarily as a starter in Boston set a baseline for 25+ starts/150+ innings around 4.00 much like Yu Darvish. These two have different styles but fall into a quality 2 WAR bucket barring significant setbacks.
How this rotation retains the MLB’s fifth-best 13.8 WAR likely comes down to the #5 slot and depth. Manager Mike Shildt tapped the trio of Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, and rookie Adam Mazur last season. The latter two combined for 28 starts with limited success, as neither reached a 15% strikeout rate. Waldron had something cooking in the first half (3.71 ERA, 3.88 FIP/4.39 xFIP) before the plug was pulled on a rougher second half (8.10 ERA, 5.27 FIP/4.16 xFIP). A handful of bad starts and an 81-point BABIP pop after the All-Star Break leave room for improvement ahead. Waldron, Vasquez, Mazur, and Jhony Brito fit the 4.00+ mold, likely not moving the needle for the 2025 rotation. Keep an eye on ground ball pitcher Stephen Kolek as he is stretched out for starting pitcher duty this spring.
Instead, Mike Shildt is expected to turn to the repatriated Kyle Hart after a successful season in the KBO. The 32-year-old lefty’s 2.69 ERA and 3.28 FIP/3.52 xFIP stands as his best professional season since low-A ball in 2017. For $1.5M, what’s the worst thing that happens? He turns out to be a mid-4.00 starter like the above options? San Diego could certainly do worse if uncertainty with the final rotation slot and depth are the key downsides. It may take some trial and error to find out who is up for the challenge; otherwise, we put the rotation on similar footing as 2024 with small variance to both sides.
— Bullpen —
We were incorrectly low on the Padres bullpen with questions about Robert Suarez and the “uninspiring” back end. Hell, we were about 10 games under the entire team’s outlook last winter. Suarez’s stuff was on point, producing enough whiffs and ground balls to finish the season with a 2.77 ERA and 3.49 FIP/3.81 xFIP valued at 0.9 WAR. More importantly, the 33-year-old converted 36 of 42 save opportunities. Projections shade Suarez toward his underlying numbers, though I am cautious against expecting a big dropoff.
Robert Suarez joined forces with Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui, and Jeremiah Estrada to carry 252.1 of the bullpen’s 572.0 innings. Throw in deadline acquisitions Jason Adam and Tanner Scott for a combined value of 5.3 WAR and over half of the unit’s workload. Scott is the only notable reliever not returning to the group this season. The natural move is to downplay big performances by relievers without a firm MLB track record. Low home run rates from Morejon and Estrada could regress, as should Matsui’s .248 BABIP. Adam’s 1.95 ERA and 3.03 FIP/3.54 xFIP are in conflict, though the former Rays’ high-leverage horse has established a true sub-.250 BABIP with his brilliant off-balance repertoire.
The Padres could do a lot worse with Sean Reynolds, Wandy Peralta, Bryan Hoeing, Alek Jacob, Tom Cosgrove, etc. in the back end queue. This is a playoff-caliber relief unit that pencils out to a 1-2 win loss from its 2024 value. Some regression concerns with the front half are the main drivers of this markdown even though the bullpen as a whole is far from a liability. An immense amount of continuity with quality arms helps the cause.
— Position Players —
We’re on board with a plus rotation and solid bullpen, so why are we just below the Padres’ current market price of 85.5 wins? A pythag baseline adjustment is one factor. More importantly, it is the position player group that leads us to a low 80’s win range center point. San Diego’s lineup was up there with the elite offenses of the Yankees and division foes Dodgers and Diamondbacks. It wasn’t the long ball that set them up as a top five group nor was it extreme aggression on the bases. They hit for average and got on base enough to churn out 760 runs – just enough to propel the club to 93 wins.
When you see names like Tatis, Machado, and Arraez on the roster it makes a ton of sense. Yet it was NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Jackson Merrill in addition to role players Donovan Solano and David Peralta who played their parts in keeping the wheels moving. The 21-year-old Merrill is expected to shed anywhere from a half to a full win from his stellar 5.3 WAR, mainly at the plate while holding onto exceptional defense at such a young age. Solano and Peralta – both out in free agency – pitched in for just over 1 WAR with 134 wRC+ against left-handers and 116 vs. right-handers, respectively.
A Tough Goodbye
I intentionally left Jurickson Profar out of the conversation above because the switch-hitting left-fielder’s monster season deserves a spotlight. You got the feeling that fan-favorite Profar wanted to return to southern California but the club wasn’t in a position to pony up a 3-year, $42M contract like the Braves did. Was AJ Preller reading the tea leaves of Jurickson’s profile before busting out the checkbook? After all, the veteran slashed .280/.380/.459 and provided 4.3 WAR – a huge valuation considering his negative fielding grades. He hit the ball harder than ever, outpacing his second-highest hard hit rate by nearly 10% last year.
Even after incentives boosted his $1M base salary to around $2.5M, Profar’s production was highway robbery at that price. The Padres seemed to have a contrary opinion to Atlanta when it comes to how much he is worth this season though. He’s been a very up-and-down producer going back to the 2018 season with Texas. The swings from one year to the next have been in the range of 20-30%! Profar now sports projections around plus-10% and 1.5 WAR. Is that and his subpar fielding worth $14M? Only time will tell.
What we do know is the hole left behind in left field is massive. In his place is the newly-acquired platoon tandem of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe. Defense should be much improved with these two in left despite Profar’s numerous highlight reel assists. At the plate, however, each newcomer figures to be a plus-5% hitter on their strong sides. That’s about 40% short against left-handed pitching and 30% short against righties. Tough pill to swallow losing that from a top three lineup position. The net value impact on the season is a loss somewhere around 3 wins.
What About Defense?
San Diego’s outfield defense should be improved with Silver Slugger Jackson Merrill in center field and Jurickson Profar taking his poor fielding to Atlanta. The other main deficiency from 2024 is behind the plate. The Friars’ catching group graded out dead last by both DRS and Statcast with Luis Campusano being the main culprit. He was in a 50/50 time share with Kyle Higashioka, the better half both offensively and defensively. He is now in Texas.
Calls to get rid of Campusano are understandable but it takes at least two backstops to fill the position for an entire season. Elias Diaz is the guy who could take over the primary role, especially if he defends like last season and not the two prior. The 34-year-old should produce at or above the level that Higgy did behind the plate though his bat is about 20% lighter. Consensus projections look for Campusano to rebound on both sides, combining with Diaz for a firm defensive upgrade at catcher. If things really go off the rails, light-hitting Brett Sullivan is the assumed third wheel of the operation in the absence of future transactions.
Another notable loss is Ha-Seong Kim, whose season was cut short by shoulder injury prior to opting out and signing with the Rays. The KBO import was a plus defender in the Padres infield for four seasons and hit well enough not be a liability. Longtime shortstop Xander Bogaerts moves over from second base where Jake Cronenworth returns, swapping with Luis Arraez at first. Fortunately, 6x All-Star third baseman Manny Machado is fully healthy and anchors the infield – one that should stay in decent shape after its new configuration gets smoothed out in camp. We have the Padres being much improved in the outfield and better behind the plate for an overall boost to their defense. The wild card is Luis Campusano. If he continues to be a massive liability they lose his potential offensive rebound and correction in the field.
Sorting the Ups and Downs
We’ve already addressed the Jurickson Profar effect in left field. A healthy Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected to add up to 10% at the plate, mitigating any regression from his neighbor Jackson Merrill. The infielders’ hitting profiles are remarkably stable with some upside for Xander Bogaerts. But the back-of-the-envelope calculations still fall short of replacing Profar’s net loss. Plus the position player corps’ depth is compromised without Kim and the Donovan Solano-David Peralta role player tandem. Tyler Wade is a serviceable utility player with a career .217/.292/.294 bat. There’s hope that Eguy Rosario can produce at a league-average level as an infield reserve with just 100 MLB plate appearances under his belt.
As stable as the veterans’ offensive projections are, the biggest concern is who backs them up. Ready prospect depth is next to nothing and the bench players are arguably worse than last season’s. The Padres got a lot out of their DH spot in 2024 (.292/.345/.440, 123 wRC+) primarily with Machado and Arraez. Now they look to bench depth or someone like Tirso Ornelas to fill that lineup slot. That’s a tough hit one way or another. We’re looking at a 5-7% downward correction shaded slightly more against their right-handed splits.
Maybe we are too low on this team much like last winter and that could come back to bite. I did my required reading on the state of the Padres’ payroll and overall direction over the Christmas holiday. Ownership drama aside, the consistent message was that San Diego would most likely not be a big offseason buyer. If anything, minor additions to fill the biggest of holes would be made. Nick Pivetta is a quality addition given this perspective, though the way that left field has been addressed is more consistent with the franchise’s game plan. We took a bite on under 89.5 wins right after the holiday then finished off the position on New Year’s Day. It is very difficult to advocate for going under 85.5 or similar as this is still a playoff squad that just happens to be precariously thin.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2025 Win Total: Open 85.5, Now 86
2024 Result: Over 84.5 (89-73 / Pythag: 90)
Expectations in Phoenix rose in lock step with the D-backs’ 2024 season win total after an improbable World Series appearance. The result: an 89-win season that fell just short of back-to-back playoff appearances. We anticipated a heavy dose of status quo in Arizona, which was spot on with the pitching staff but off the mark for the position players. Offense spiked and fielding declined – anything but more of the same. This offseason, job #1 is to mitigate roster losses from the lineup and bullpen to keep pace in a tough NL West.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- K Graveman (RP – RHP)
- C Burnes (SP – RHP)
- J Naylor (1B)
Subtractions:
- S Cecconi (RHP))
- C Walker (1B)
- J Pederson (OF/DH)
- K Newman (INF)
- D Floro (RP – RHP)
- P Sewald (RP – RHP)
- L Guillorme (INF)
- J Bell (1B)
- M Castro (RP – RHP)
- T Barnhart (C)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 79 – 87
— Rotation —
Kicking off Arizona’s preview with a very surprising Christmastime signing of big free agent Corbin Burnes is more than fitting. After failing to make the playoffs with an eye-popping offense, something had to give. Last offseason’s acquisitions Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez moved the needle in the wrong direction, inflating the team’s starting pitching ERA from 4.67 to 4.79 (27th) despite improving the collective FIP and xFIP by a quarter run or better. Granted, a league-high .313 BABIP only fanned the flames of opponent run scoring.
Corbin Burnes’ 6-year, $210M deal with an opt-out after the 2026 season pushes Arizona payroll into uncharted territory. As for the 30-year-old righty’s positives: 190 innings in each of the last 3 seasons, mid-3.00s FIP/xFIP, and decreasing hard contact numbers closing in on 30%. But Burnes has been a polarizing top free agent this winter. He commands big dollars because he is a bona fide ace on just about any MLB roster. Yet his cutter and curveball graded out as decliners in 2024, underlining Corbin’s well-documented 12.5% drop in strikeout rate from the 2021 to 2024 seasons.
In all fairness, Arizona desperately needs more innings out of their rotation. Lackluster depth of starts continued to be a drag on the bullpen. The starting pitchers’ collective 826.1 IP ranked 19th last season, topping only four playoff teams in workload: the Guardians, Tigers, Dodgers, and Brewers. The kicker? Those bullpens mustered top five ERAs as opposed to Arizona relievers posting the MLB’s sixth-highest ERA. No wonder why the Diamondbacks pushed their chips in on a top-tier 190-inning arm to work away at this deficit.
Can Burnes Raise the Tide?
There are a few boats in the Arizona rotation in need of lifting. The aforementioned Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery signings left a lot to be desired, though E-Rod’s lat injury and subsequent rehab setback are fair justifications. As for Montgomery, there’s not much of an excuse for him posting career-worst numbers. His pitch quality was downright terrible, a better explanation for a .355 BABIP as opposed to tough luck. Rotation depth is a good thing; unfortunately, Jordan’s $22.5M option makes for an expensive spot starter/swingman.
Veterans E-Rod and Merrill Kelly wish nothing more than to put their injury-marred seasons behind them and deliver meatier 2025 campaigns. Kelly’s prime seasons of 2022 & 2023 clash with the notion that he’s now 36 years of age, tempering projections around the 4.00 mark and 2 WAR. That’s a fair expectation for Rodriguez as well. It becomes a matter of hitting the 150-inning threshold to help stabilize the rotation and produce surplus value.
So what’s up with Zac Gallen, who just recently assembled a monster 5.2-WAR season as a 34-start workhorse? His 2024 campaign’s 5.29 innings/start was a big step back from the 5.94 and 6.18 figures in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Gallen peaked in all likelihood given some analysts’ takes on pitch quality and fastball command. These are significant issues, considering how reclaiming command dictates whether depth of starts rebounds. Fortunately, projections keep Zac in mid-3.00s territory for a 3+ WAR value.
This leads into another head scratcher on the roster, Brandon Pfaadt. Some of us paid the price for trusting his FIP discrepancy (4.71 ERA, 3.61 FIP/3.58 xFIP) one too many times. Even the 2025 ZIPS Projections article raised doubts about Pfaadt’s “ability to match his FIP”. My bankroll shares that same sentiment. Regardless, I appreciate his command and the effectiveness of that wicked slider – or sweeper, if you will. A 2-WAR floor is reasonable if fortunate enough to top 30 starts again. Depth pieces like Ryne Nelson and a handful of prospects round things out for a rotation that should tack on 3-4 WAR over its disappointing 2024 performance.
— Position Players —
To say that the Diamondbacks were carried by their position player corps is an understatement. Nearly 3/4 of the team’s WAR came from that side of the ledger, primarily in the form of their league-leading 886 runs – an increase of 140 from the World Series season. 33.8 WAR ties the World Champion Dodgers atop the MLB leaderboard, settling in a tick above AL Pennant winner New York. Can the D-backs keep those massive gains in 2025? The first place to start is with the biggest hole left in free agency: first base.
33-year-old Christian Walker was extended a qualifying offer as he reached free agency after a third straight 3+ WAR season. Fielding at first base may not mean as much as other positions, though losing a 3x Gold Glover who saved 7 or more runs in each of his last three seasons undoubtedly impacts the defense. And, by the way, Walker’s plus-20% bat heads out the door with him. He may not be in the elite company of first basemen like Harper, Guerrero, and Freeman, yet replacing him is a tall task.
Filling Walker’s shoes is Cleveland’s 2024 All-Star Josh Naylor. There are plenty of similarities between their offensive profiles as evidenced by last year’s numbers. Fortunately, Josh projects to replace Christian’s offensive production suitably. Where Naylor falls short is in the field. That’s less of a knock against him than it is a reflection of Walker’s strength. Our key offensive adjustment for this transition is a modest downtick against southpaws.
Taking Stock
Platoon hitters Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk were +50% in their respective strong side splits, though only Grichuk is returning to the D-backs. Pederson declining the $14M contract option makes sense after mashing an extra 30% above career marks against right-handed pitching. After all, a righty-thumping DH is always going to be in demand. But who is willing to pay for Joc’s 2024 numbers when regression is highly likely? Texas, apparently. Grichuk’s price to return was $5M due to slashing .291/.348/.528 with a 139 wRC+. His overall numbers take a hit if overexposed to right-handers with that reverse split likely to come back to baseline.
Free agency left another fringy hole from utility man Kevin Newman’s 99 games in the middle infield. Granted, his .278/.311/.375 slash line via .322 BABIP was unlikely to be replicated if he stayed. Throw in Newman’s plus defense at both second base and shortstop in fill-in duty, and now you have some unexpected shoes to fill. Is Blaze Alexander going to give the D-backs 1+ WAR off the bench? Likely not if he’s tagged for too much duty at short. Losing Newman and Christian Walker should lead to another defensive downtick.
Keeping the Band Together
Saying goodbye to a quarter of the lineup’s value is how it goes sometimes. Welcoming a quality bat like Naylor’s takes away some of the sting though. What’s left in the tank clearly becomes more important to Arizona’s success, especially after signing Corbin Burnes to improve run prevention. From our perspective, the emergent trio of 2023 Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo join centerpiece Ketel Marte as the engine that fuels this squad. Plus outfielder Jake McCarthy may have squeezed himself into the conversation after an impressive rebound season.
ARI Key Offensive Players, 2024 Production
| ’25 Age | BB% | K% | BABIP | Slash Line | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K Marte (2B) | 31 | 11.1% | 18.2% | .299 | .292/.372/.560 | 6.3 |
| C Carroll (OF) | 24 | 10.7% | 19.0% | .256 | .231/.322/.428 | 4.0 |
| J McCarthy (OF) | 27 | 6.3% | 15.8% | .329 | .285/.349/.400 | 3.0 |
| G Moreno (C) | 25 | 11.7% | 14.8% | .303 | .266/.353/.380 | 2.5 |
| G Perdomo (SS) | 25 | 9.3% | 14.9% | .317 | .273/.344/.374 | 2.0 |
Strong up the middle is the key and Arizona firmly checks that box. The young legs of Carroll, Perdomo, and McCarthy contributed to the team’s top three base running grades despite the club swiping only 119 bags. Base stealing is just one part of it though. Savvy navigation on the base paths proved to be valuable well beyond face value.
Balancing youth with established hitters Eugenio Suarez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. might be manager Torey Lovullo’s biggest challenge ahead. Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas have the speed and fielding skills to nail down center field and possibly push incumbent left fielder Gurriel into the DH spot more often. That probably depends more on Thomas finally realizing his offensive potential – a believe it when I see it sort of thing – and growing into a strong side platoon role, at minimum.
That leads us to the Eugenio Suarez/Jordan Lawlar conversation. With switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo holding down the fort at shortstop, the 22-year-old Lawlar is on the cusp of a quasi-Kevin Newman role in 2025 as infield support. Speed and glove work could squeeze the heralded prospect onto the roster in lieu of Blaze Alexander or Pavin Smith if the bat comes around or Suarez is dealt out of strength. It speaks highly to Arizona’s interesting depth, though it may not come to fruition right out of Spring Training. Losing key role player production could be the biggest drag on the offense, anywhere from 5-10% in aggregate.
— Bullpen —
Diamondbacks relievers continued their tradition of subpar performance, landing in the bottom third of the MLB pecking order once again. The bullpen’s 35-30 record was far from hateful, though run support is the clear reason for this ostensible “success”. Their 4.41 ERA was, well, about as rough as it gets. Not a coincidence that Arizona’s bullpen also delivered a fifth-worst strikeout rate (21.1%). Talk about an uphill battle to strand runners and keep the club in the game late. Never fear though, there is a path to deliver the Arizona relief unit out of liability status for the first time in years.
The process started with jettisoning a handful of their least productive relievers along with Paul Sewald, who never quite produced the way he did in Seattle. In their places are sub-4.00 veterans Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Ryan Thompson to eat 60+ innings. They are known quantities for Torey Lovullo to implement in relief. Bullpen arms are tough to project from season to season though.
Did They Find Their Men?
Things get really interesting with 23-year-old closers Justin Martinez and AJ Puk. Martinez has the attention of the Diamondbacks faithful as he matured before their eyes last season. After a rough 2023 Spring Training and brief debut, the kid got to work in the offseason and came back with a new splitter and better control. Yes, a walk rate above 10% can be tough to stomach. But a K rate pushing 30% with plenty of ground balls, whiffs, and weak contact more than make up for it. Don’t be surprised to see Martinez closing out games in emphatic fashion for a club making a playoff run.
The only glaring issue with left-hander AJ Puk in 2025 is the unrealistic expectation set by his performance once he joined Arizona last summer. After the move, Puk posted a filthy 1.32 ERA, 1.63 FIP/2.01 xFIP in 30 appearances. Recalibrate him at a low-3.00s level over 60+ innings and the Martinez/Puk/Ginkel high-leverage triumvirate exceeds the bullpen’s value in 2024. That puts the emphasis on veteran middle relievers and budding starter types to simply perform at a replacement level or better.
Although Arizona’s bullpen is arguably missing a proven arm or two, this is a more potent group than has been rostered for quite a few years. Plus the front office may make a move or two at the deadline to bolster the group for the stretch run like last year. But as things stand today, the relief unit should be more stable and add 1+ wins to the ledger.
San Francisco Giants 2025 Win Total: Open 79.5, Now 80.5
2024 Win Total: Under 82 (80-82 / Pythag: 80)
Another Buster Posey era has begun in San Francisco. From franchise legend behind and at the plate to the front office, the hopes of a Giants resurgence in a highly competitive NL West are resting on Posey and the front office. Staying relevant in 2025 while building a stronger organization for a run in the near future is a challenge. Cornerstone position players, young starting pitchers, and a bullpen core are great places to start. Where this season goes, however, is our current task at hand. As for Mr. Market, he says to expect more of the same in 2024.
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- L Jackson (RP – RHP)
- J Verlander (SP – RHP)
- W Adames (SS)
Subtractions:
- Tay Rogers (RP – LHP)
- B Snell (SP – LHP)
- M Conforto (OF)
- M Canha (OF/1B)
- T Estrada (2B)
- C Casali (C)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 77 – 82
— Position Players —
Pretty much everything on the position player side of the Giants’ ledger was middle of the road. Batting, fielding, and base running all graded out near neutral for the 2024 season. But that’s not to say there wasn’t improvement across the board from the year prior though. Hell, San Francisco even moved up from dead last in steals to next-to-last. Only one way to go when you’re at the bottom, right? That’s the sort of improvement that makes you lock up your second highest base stealer – and, by the way, 5x Gold Glover – third baseman Matt Chapman with a 6-year, $151M extension. (Surely you caught the sarcasm regarding Chapman’s career-high 15 bags.)
Recalibrating the Lineup
Seems obvious to say the Willy Adames signing put the dominos of San Francisco’s lineup in motion. Buster Posey’s first big deal – aside from his role in extending Chapman – netted a monster 7-year, $182M contract to stabilize the middle infield. Since moving from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee, Adames sharpened his fielding skills while becoming a reliable run-producer. 2023’s power slump and last season’s defensive lapse prompt questions about the 29-year-old’s consistency on both sides. But these are smaller questions in the grand scheme of things. As Michael Baumann summed things up after the trade, the guy does pretty much everything well.
Willy could be just what the doctor ordered. Adames brings surety to a premium position that the Giants haven’t had since Brandon Crawford’s heyday. Darragh McDonald of MLBTR hit the nail on the head in San Francisco’s Offseason Outlook saying that shortstop was “the most logical place to add.” The domino effect of shifting Tyler Fitzgerald to cover a deficiency at second base creates at least 1 win of net value over the collective work of Thairo Estrada and Brett Wisely. That even includes Fitzgerald’s inevitable regression from a .380 BABIP-fueled 132 wRC+. Pegging the new middle infield for 5+ WAR is far from unreasonable, even with a mild probability that Willy Adames does not recapture his fielding prowess of the 2022-2023 seasons.
Stability at the corners includes first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. in his fifth season with San Francisco. A few years back, the left hand-hitting Wade had a huge hole in his game against southpaws. With that easing up the last couple seasons, the downside of splitting time with a short-side partner subsides. The organization gets a potential Wilmer Flores rebound after exercising his option following his worst hitting season since debuting in 2013 (.206/.277/.318).
Give and Take
Now we come full circle to Buster Posey’s old job behind the plate – a position of significant defensive strength headlined by reigning NL Gold Glover Patrick Bailey. The 25-year-old led MLB in nearly all fielding value metrics, vastly outweighing a .234/.298/.339 slash line. Bailey’s defense is legit and he has a touch of upside at the plate. Moving veteran Tom Murphy into Curt Casali’s backup role trades some defense for the potential of more power. A lot of the Giants’ defensive eggs are in the baskets of Chapman and Bailey, who will be called on again to maintain the squad’s middling fielding value.
Things look trickier in the outfield from my point of view. Michael Conforto leaving for NL West stalwart Los Angeles came at a tough time with respect to replacing his offensive contributions (.237/.309/.450, 20 HR). 2024 was a rebound year that netted the former Met a $17M show-me contract with the World Champions. At least the Giants’ anchor in the grass Mike Yastrzemski is still around after churning through another 1+ WAR campaign. Rinse and repeat for the 34-year-old? Probably. Does he move the needle? Doubtful, since the team’s outfield depth and platoon strength is not quite what it was during the Gabe Kapler era.
Heliot Ramos burst onto the scene at the age of 24 with tremendous success putting the ball in play. Never mind the 26.1% K rate because that is part of his game. A tick down in raw production after a .329 BABIP still leaves gas in the tank. Just don’t expect another 222 wRC+ against lefties as he stretches into a larger role. Where Ramos can partially offset this is with his glove. When in the corner, the guy was pretty good. But playing in center was a totally different conversation. We’re talking about a 21-run net differential per DRS (9 per FRV) between nearly equal time spent in center field and the corners.
What Does It Add Up To?
That makes Jung Hoo Lee’s second chance as San Francisco’s regular center fielder fairly important. Odds are, Lee won’t be a star defender. But it’s doubtful that the 26-year-old performs worse than Ramos in center. The fielding gains come from Heliot spending more time in left where he can excel. A realistic outcome of a Ramos-Lee-Yaz outfield is a step forward defensively and a step back at the plate with Conforto gone. We still truly don’t know what Jung Hoo Lee has at the MLB level though, making the outfield group’s projections that much more nebulous. Manager Bob Melvin has his hands full in a tough NL West. His tweaked lineup could be similar to 2024’s in the big picture but with splits rebalancing related to Heliot Ramos and Michael Conforto.
— Rotation —
Make no bones about it, San Francisco’s starting pitching has let them down the last couple seasons. Their rotation fell well short of our – and plenty of others’ – expectations for a rebound from its 2023 low point. One-and-done Blake Snell had his troubles early in the season but rallied for a stellar second half (1.45 ERA, 1.72 FIP/2.49 xFIP) that includes a no-hitter against the Reds. Young arms Keaton Winn and Kyle Harrison did not make the type of splash that the Giants needed, especially with Winn on the shelf after elbow surgery.
Logan Webb delivered as advertised though. Another 4+ WAR value topping 200 innings for a second straight season. Excellent command and plenty of ground balls yielded 3.47 ERA and 2.95 FIP/3.28 xFIP. Concerns with increasing hard contact (46.0%) and slipping whiffs (8.5%) are balanced by his workhorse tendencies to carry this staff. A healthy Webb likely delivers another valuation around the 4-WAR mark. But as we said in last year’s preview, “Logan Webb can’t do it all.” That statement still rings true.
The Rotation Reboot
Robbie Ray slides into Blake Snell’s vacated #2 spot after executing his option. The 33-year-old lefty was hit with both Tommy John and flexor tendon surgeries that limited him to just 8 starts over the 2023-2024 seasons. Next to nobody expects a sub-3.00 resurgence or a 30-start workhorse effort after these significant setbacks. But the veteran should muster something around the 4.00 benchmark and grind 150 innings. That captures a couple wins from Snell’s vacated 3.1 WAR via quantity, though not necessarily quality.
What to do about the Jordan Hicks as starter conundrum? We expected “modest success” from the former fireballer as he ventured into the rotation. Things started off well for the former Cardinal, then reality kicked in…
Hicks showed early promise as a starter. He posted a 2.70 earned run average over 12 starts through the end of May. It looked as if Hicks would be a reliever-to-rotation success story in the Seth Lugo or Michael King mold, but things went off the rails midway through the year. Hicks’ velocity trended down each month. While he averaged 95.6 MPH on his sinker in April, that was down to 93.4 MPH by July. The results sharply dropped with it, as he posted a 5.24 ERA in June and allowed nearly a run per inning in July.
Giants Intend To Keep Jordan Hicks In Rotation – Anthony Franco, MLBTradeRumors.com – December 9, 2024
Bouncing Jordan back to the bullpen for a quick 9 appearances wasn’t quite the ticket. But the 2024 season is in the rearview mirror, and the 28-year-old has that experience to grow from. Barring disaster, Hicks settling in as a low-4.00s ground ball type ups his value to the 1 WAR plateau with limited upside. Incremental improvement from Kyle Harrison via a couple more starts and stretching out past the fifth inning makes a similar half-win gain.
Panning For Depth
A handful of rotation hopefuls who made their way to The Show last year will battle to move into the rotation as depth pieces. Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, and Landen Roupp combined for 28 starts as injuries elsewhere helped prompt their debuts. Lingering questions about the health and effectiveness of the Giants’ middle rotation arms emphasize the importance of their year twos.
Enlisting 3x Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander takes the urgency out of pushing these younger arms back into action. Verlander’s storied career gives way to low-4.00 expectations and a modest 20+ start projection. Not to overlook the brilliance of his long career, but at this point in the game the 42-year-old is a contact pitcher who relies on his command to grind through 5 innings. Nothing wrong with buying some time for the youngsters by enlisting another veteran arm.
SFG Starting Pitcher Debuts (2024)
| Age | GS | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP/xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Birdsong (R) | 23 | 16 | 27.9% | 13.7% | 4.75 | 4.67/4.21 |
| M Black (R) | 26 | 8 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 5.88 | 5.10/5.12 |
| L Roupp (R) | 26 | 4 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 3.86 | 3.49/4.17 |
Birdsong has really good secondary pitches but continued to struggle mightily with command and hard contact. Black showed that his slider is legit at the MLB level, though he generally failed to make hitters miss. But it was Landon Roupp who showed a ton of promise, though primarily out of the bullpen. His tight curveball provides a solid floor to grow from as he takes on more playing time in 2025.
Southpaw Carson Whisenhunt might have something to say about this. Is he Rookie of the Year good though? Transitioning from the PCL to the MLB has its pros and cons, especially with much yet to be seen from the organization’s #2 prospect. The changeup makes the 24-year-old tick, offering a wicked downshift from his sinker-heavy approach. Whisenhunt and Roupp could crack the 4.00 mark as Birdsong and Black figure to be low-to-mid 4.00s sophomore arms. Bob Melvin has good options coming up through the system, though I’m sure he wants to use them as pieces of strength versus need. Questions with Ray and Hicks cloud the promise of significant upside with the rotation in 2025.
— Bullpen —
Continuity in the relief corps is generally a good thing; the key exception being the most miserable bullpens. San Francisco’s is not one of those. The Giants’ mid-pack group effectively returns in full after throwing down the second-most innings pitched (655.0). It is a group that excelled at producing ground ball contact (49.7%) – the most in MLB – at the expense of getting much needed Ks at times. But for the sake of projecting year-over-year changes, having five relievers translate from 2023 to 2024 to 2025 helps my cause.
The biggest question in this department going into the 2024 season was closer Camillo Doval. We commented how there weren’t many projections calling for the fireballer to have a third prolific season in a row. Command woes, hard contact, home runs, and a significant discrepancy between his 4.88 ERA and 3.71 FIP/3.63 xFIP resulted in Doval spending a couple weeks in the minors. Nothing to worry about though. In the process of this “regression” the Giants found their next beast of the bullpen.
Holding On For Dear Life
Homegrown talent Ryan Walker emerged as San Francisco’s opener/reliever in 2023 with solid sub-4.00 numbers despite a hefty .351 BABIP. Except for a single game as opener last year, Walker became one of Bob Melvin’s go-to leverage guys en route to taking the closer reins during Camillo Doval’s recalibration in Sacramento. The sinker/slider righty is the presumptive closer for 2025 but faces another piece of BABIP regression after posting .254. But we’re still talking about 30% strikeouts, plenty of ground balls, and weak contact to keep Walker around the low-3.00s with a 1+ WAR projection.
There is enough optimism for Doval to regain some command in a setup role now that left-hander Taylor Rogers is gone. The Rogers twins were split when Taylor was traded to the Reds; right-hander Tyler remains as a mid-to-upper 3.00s setup man. Tyler has cemented a valuable role in the Giants bullpen as a reliable 70+ inning workhorse. Familiar faces Sean Hjelle and swingman Tristan Beck also return in their complementary roles.
One reliever to keep an eye on is Erik Miller, whose MLB debut panned out similar to Ryan Walker’s in 2023. Although he pitches from the opposite side, Miller similarly took the opener/reliever role by the horns. His 30.6% strikeout and 12.4% whiff rates echo that of Walker’s rookie campaign. Now the 27-year-old likely gets promoted to the leverage half of the bullpen where a mid-3.00s expectation helps maintain much the unit’s value from 2024. And that’s about where the Giants bullpen pencils out for the season ahead: small ebbs and flows amongst the personnel with little overall change.
Colorado Rockies 2025 Win Total: Open 61.5, Now 59.5
2024 Result: Over 60.5 (61-101 / Pythag: 59)
Here we are. The Colorado Rockies. 2024 marked a sixth straight season finishing either 4th or 5th in the NL West. Is there any relief in sight? General manager Bill Schmidt got the go-ahead to sign multiple fliers to minor league contracts and a couple infielders trying to keep their flags planted in the Majors. Sarcasm aside, the Rockies likely add a few cheap free agents late and see where things go for Opening Day. Yet probably nothing that moves the needle much. So the market calls for another 60-win season…is there enough to sway you onto either side of Colorado’s win total?
Offseason Personnel Changes
Additions:
- T Estrada (2B)
- K Farmer (INF)
Subtractions:
- B Rodgers (2B)
- C Quantrill (SP – RHP)
- D Hudson (SP – RHP)
- J Cave (OF)
BetCrushers 2025 Win Projection Range: 49 – 68
— Position Players —
The Rockies offense was better, no doubt about it. Unfortunately, their park-adjusted production has been stuck around 20% short of the league-average benchmark for about four years. No coincidence that the Rockies haven’t been to the postseason since they had a competitive lineup – and pitching staff, for that matter. It certainly does not help that $182M man Kris Bryant lives on the IL. Even if he is healthy enough to join the offense, projections put him at replacement level. All those injuries eventually catch up and he’s now 33.
On face value, the lineup’s slash line, homers, and runs scored were all somewhere mid-pack. They don’t run much as a whole, though centerfielder Brenton Doyle has become a legitimate threat on the bases. The 26-year-old stole 22 bases as a rookie at a 81.4% clip. Greater playing time last year led to 30 bags at 85.7%…even better. Doyle and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar tacked on 5.1 more wins of value that manager Bud Black needs to have on board in 2025.
Selected COL Hitters, 2024 Production (Change From 2023)
| PA | HR | R | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B Doyle (CF) | 603 (+171) | 23 (+10) | 82 (+34) | 97 (+52) | 3.7 (+3.1) |
| E Tovar (SS) | 695 (+80) | 26 (+11) | 83 (+4) | 95 (+23) | 3.7 (+2.0) |
| N Jones (OF) | 297 (-127) | 3 (-17) | 28 (-32) | 70 (-67) | -0.8 (-4.6) |
Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar continued their stellar defense up the middle right where you want it, earning Gold Gloves for their efforts. Expect nothing less from these two in 2025. Consensus projections view last year’s offense at the top of their ranges though. They could lose up to 2 combined wins if they cannot maintain that level at the plate.
Odd man out in the above table is outfielder Nolan Jones, 2023’s surprise pickup that paid off in spades. Unfortunately, he went the wrong way after hitting, running, and fielding his way to 3.8 WAR. Nolan was a prime regression candidate after the big year’s .401 BABIP that is fat regardless of what stadium he hit in. Now the 27-year-old left-handed hitter is a bounceback candidate with up to 30% upside. I do not see much confidence in Jones defending like he did in 2023 though. Back-of-the-envelope math has a Nolan Jones rebound covering any losses from Doyle and Tovar.
Keeping the Band Together
The Rockies lineup will look very similar to last year’s. Bud Black indicated that Brenton Doyle will lead off this season, a no-brainer considering how dynamic of a player he is. The exception to Colorado’s continuity is at second base, which was inhabited by Brendan Rodgers for the better part of the last four seasons. Former Giant Thairo Estrada fills this position with a comparable bat and defense with some room for improvement over Rodgers. Flexible infielder Kyle Farmer can fill in or supplant Estrada if things go wrong. They’ll be parked next to switch-hitter Michael Toglia, a typical big-hitting first baseman with holes in his swing.
Homegrown third baseman Ryan McMahon is working on the back half of his 6-year deal. The 30-year-old bedrock of the lineup gets on base and fields the hot corner quite well. 2023 & 2024 serve as McMahon’s new baseline moving forward as a solid 2 WAR player. Sam Hilliard and rookie Jordan Beck fill out the outfield as replacement level or slightly better hitters with serviceable gloves. There’s not much in the way of defensive improvement from this cast of characters but a 3-4% offensive upgrade is reasonable. There are a few interesting guys in the minors like outfielders Yanquiel Fernandez, Sean Bouchard, and Zac Veen who will get chances to contribute; just not enough to significantly impact the whole shebang.
Before we move onto the pitching staff, the catching group deserves a quick discussion. The Rox brought in veteran backstop Jacob Stallings before the 2024 season to pull this position up off the mat. Granted, they weren’t much better behind the plate compared to the Elias Diaz-led group of 2023. Stallings’ surprising .263/.357/.453 line in a 50% timeshare made Diaz expendable this offseason. But the 35-year-old’s production looks to be an anomaly to his -25% baseline. Some combination of Hunter Goodman and prospect Drew Romo will fill in the other half. There are tradeoffs with these two as Goodman leads with the bat and Romo adds more with the glove.
— Rotation —
It’s been a tough row to hoe for Colorado starting pitching the last few years. Mainstay German Marquez missed the majority of the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery then exited last year after just one start due to a stress fracture in his elbow. Antonio Senzatela squeezed in a few starts upon return from his own Tommy John procedure a couple years ago. Adding insult to injury was Kyle Freeland’s early season elbow strain paired with an unrelated home plate collision while pinch running. Yikes!
Those key absences left a lot of starts in the hands of guys like Cal Quantrill, Dakota Hudson, and Ty Blach. This threesome of 5.00+ pitchers compiled 293.2 innings across 59 starts for an average just shy of 5 innings/start. Fortunately, Ryan Feltner and Austin Gomber held their own with upper-4.00s effectiveness as a 3.6 WAR pair. Plus they led Colorado’s makeshift rotation with 30 starts each at 160+ innings. These were considerable steps forward in terms of workload and production in general. Projections are generally similar to last year’s results.
Back In the Saddle
German Marquez can’t be asked to shoulder his typical pre-Tommy John 180 innings per season. How about being a 25+ start sub-5.00 ground ball pitcher? Sounds better than last year’s replacements. Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela have long track records with the Rockies that generate 1+ WAR estimates for each. A healthy start for Freeland should produce 25+ starts; Senzatela’s ground ball-heavy approach and injury history pan out to 20+ starts. Colorado’s starting five is projected to produce 6-8 WAR even with volume limitations. That’s at least 2 wins greater than last year.
The volume gap could be filled by Bradley Blalock, Anthony Molina, or a host of non-roster invitees to Spring Training like Jake Woodford. The organization has its sights set on their #1 prospect Chase Dollander though. Granted, the 23-year-old hasn’t made it to AAA ball yet where he will be tested with better hitters and higher elevations in the Pacific Coast League.
A strapping 6-foot-2, Dollander has the frame and delivery of a 160-plus inning workhorse. His line to the plate can waver at times, but for the most part his delivery and release are consistent, and Dollander’s fastball is nasty enough to give him lots of margin for error on the days when his command is a little looser. He’s going to be an impact mid-rotation guy — and maybe the Rockies’ best starter — very soon.
Colorado Rockies Top 43 Prospects – Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs.com – January 7, 2025
The Blalocks and Molinas of the system are stopgap depth pieces if needed. However, Chase Dollander is the one who should get the call to be Colorado’s sixth man this summer and parlay that into a 2026 rotation spot. Coors Field is a tough venue to foster up-and-coming strikeout pitchers but Dollander might be the one to buck this headwind.
— Bullpen —
Now if they could only get some of that optimism from the rotation to rub off on the bullpen. Above-average performances are few and far between and last year was no exception. 2023 was good for the Rox’ relievers with Jake Bird, Brent Suter, and Justin Lawrence leading the way. Suter moved on to Cincinnati, Bird struggled with injuries and walks, and Lawrence bottomed out to a 6.49 ERA, 5.63 FIP/4.94 xFIP level. The former closer alone flipped from 1.2 WAR in 2023 to -0.8 as his home run rate doubled and strikeouts cut by one-third. We were on the fence with Lawrence in last year’s preview after his tale of two halves. Turns out the rougher second half prevailed.
Fortunately, some BABIP and home run rate regression should get Justin Lawrence back to replacement level. Bud Black has likely moved on with a new crop of young arms to test out in the bullpen’s front half. Righty-lefty prospect duo Seth Halvorsen and Luis Peralta were called up in late August. Don’t expect their sub-2.00 ERAs to persist across full 60+ inning workloads though. They fit into the mid-4.00 group where Victor Vodnik, Angel Chivilli, and veteran Tyler Kinley reside. Kinley is the presumptive closer to begin the season but can quickly be cycled out or fall into a timeshare with these less-experienced arms. The Rockies get to test drive their young pitchers this season without much overall improvement in the short term.
2025 NL West Projected Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (101-61)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
- San Diego Padres (83-79)
- San Francisco Giants (78-84)
- Colorado Rockies (55-107)
Around the Horn
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