The “real” Opening Day isn’t until March 28th but the MLB World Tour’s 2024 Seoul Series officially counts as the first two games of the season. Festivities kick off with a two-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres across the Pacific Ocean. It’s a shorter commute to South Korea for these guys than most clubs, so why not throw Ohtani’s Dodgers against Tatis’ Padres to get the ball rolling this season?
Where Are We Playing Ball?
Seoul’s Gocheok Sky Dome is an interesting piece of architecture in South Korea’s busiest city. Inside, it plays fairly straightforward with a uniform, 12′ high outfield wall. Dimensions are 325 feet down both lines and 400 feet to straightaway center – very much like how Toronto’s Rogers Centre played until last season’s tweaks (328’/400’/328′, 14’4″). At 23 meters above sea elevation, the closest comparable stadiums in the MLB belong to the Orioles and Rays. Weather – wind and temperature, at least – will not be a factor in the climate-controlled dome.
The Tale of the Tape
The Dodgers’ stranglehold on the NL West bleeds into the 2024 season with a divisional matchup to kick things off. Disappointing offseason? Anything but. High-profile signings of Shohei Ohtani and Japanese starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto dovetail well with gap-filling outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and the trade for top-end pitcher Tyler Glasnow. The more arms, the better for an L.A. club with five starting pitchers starting the season on the IL.
San Diego made quite a bit of their own noise this winter, commencing with a blockbuster trade with the Yankees. Out goes elite hitter Juan Soto; in comes starting pitching reinforcements Michael King and Jhony Brito along with catcher Kyle Higashioka. That came early in the offseason. Mid-March ushered in a big trade with the White Sox that sent a prospect package to the South Side for coveted starting pitcher Dylan Cease. This makes Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell’s departure a distant memory. As for this week’s opening series with the Dodgers, the new trifecta of starting pitchers will have to wait to make their Padres debuts until they return Stateside from the 2024 Seoul Series.
Lineup Evaluation
Our full preseason look at the NL West was published on February 24th so the Cease trade and other small roster changes were not considered. Macro impacts to the Padres lineup certainly were though – namely the loss of Juan Soto’s .275/.410/.519 and 35 home runs. The 25-year-old regained his power after a “down” 2022 and leaves a considerable hole in the San Diego lineup, especially against right-handed pitching. And that’s what the Padres will face to start both games of the series.
San Diego turns to untested prospects Jackson Merrill in the outfield and Graham Pauley at third base. Pauley is stopgap measure while Manny Machado is temporarily restricted to DH duties after offseason treatment on his elbow. Merrill, on the other hand, is the club’s top prospect and figures to be a contributor throughout the 2024 season. Lack of substantive depth is another factor weighing on San Diego, though likely not an issue in this two-game set.
You would think that the Dodgers’ lineup won’t miss a beat after re-signing Jason Hayward and adding Teoscar Hernandez to the outfield corners. Plus it’s safe to call Shohei Ohtani an upgrade over the aging JD Martinez as designated hitter. For the most part, L.A.’s offense retains its standing as a top-three group overall. My overarching concern pertains to performance against left-handed pitching with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman teed up for regression in this specific area. Questions with Gavin Lux’ ability to play the infield after missing the 2023 season flared up in Spring Training, leading manager Dave Roberts to move Lux to second base and shift Betts to shortstop. Time will tell how that affects L.A.’s impressive fielding.
Providing Relief
Expectations for the clubs’ pairs of starting pitchers are modest in terms of how deep they will go. Relief units will be leaned on for 3-4 innings in each game as it’s doubtful either manager wants to push their starters like they would for a May or June contest. I’ve downgraded both bullpens this winter but anticipate the Dodgers navigating the season more smoothly. Ultimately they should separate as a top-ten group. Not having standout high-leverage reliever Brusdar Graterol for the Seoul Series is an important adjustment to make though.
The most notable loss from San Diego’s bullpen is closer Josh Hader. He and Nick Martinez represented the lion’s share of the group’s value last season. Both have since departed for greener pastures. Skepticism with Robert Suarez as a key late-innings guy is fair. Plus there are enough new faces in the Friars’ bullpen to keep the jury out for a while. International and domestic signings pepper the unit, so the first few weeks shape up as more of a mystery than usual. Not like bullpens could use another dose of volatility or anything!
Game 1 (March 20th, 6:05 am ET): LAD -195, 8.5
T Glasnow (R) vs. Y Darvish (R)
Standout starter Tyler Glasnow looks to fade significant injury in his Dodgers debut season. Last year’s return from Tommy John surgery was highly successful (3.53 ERA, 2.91 FIP/2.75 x FIP) despite a late start to the season. This bodes well for a run at career highs in starts and innings in 2024. Mid-3.00s performance makes up for what should be 5ish-inning outings in the early stages of the season. An expectation for 5 innings of work or less in Game 1 is fair given Glasnow’s history and Dave Roberts’ need to ramp him up slowly but surely. Facing the Soto-less Padres lineup is not the worst way for Tyler to start the campaign.
37-year-old Yu Darvish comes off of a career-worst 4.56 ERA aside from his injury-shortened 2018 season. Age is obviously a concern when projecting a solid rebound in 2024, especially after falling back into a higher walk rate. Tailwinds include last year’s .319 BABIP but an increasing hard contact rate is a rough signal against a lineup like L.A.’s. Nonetheless, performance expectation around the 4.00 ERA mark is fine for such an experienced starting pitcher.
The Value Proposition
My number falls just short of the market when pricing the Dodgers in Game 1. The take back on San Diego isn’t quite where I want to be either. Early first 5 inning markets are slightly more appealing given the wider gap between Glasnow and Darvish as compared to the gap between bullpens. That last part is heavily biased by my preseason approach where bullpen grades are more clustered to begin the season then spread out as the months wear on. The total of 8.5 juiced to the over is fair for a domed “vanilla” stadium with this matchup. Same goes with the early first 5 inning total of 4.5. Neither the side nor the total has enough meat on the bone for me to move on – maybe a prop or two will catch the eye as gameday gets closer.
Game 2 (March 21st, 6:05 am ET)
J Musgrove (R) vs. Y Yamamoto (R)
Game 2 of the series flips home field “advantage” to the Dodgers. In this sense, advantage means the strategic edge that batting last gives a team. There are enough Asian-born players on both clubs to provide rooting interest for the local crowd, although worldwide sensation Shohei Ohtani is the obvious focal point. NPB standout Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the mound in this contest with mid-to-upper 3.00s expectations for the season. Spring Training has been interesting for the 25-year-old to say the least. Plenty of whiffs mixed in with runs scored shouldn’t deter you from respecting this high-strikeout righty in this matchup.
Fortunately for veteran right-hander Joe Musgrove, the big toe won’t stand in the way of him making a late-March start this year. He’s also a mid-3.00s producer that I expect to give a solid 5 innings. Mixed results in Spring Training much like his counterpart makes this starting pitcher face-off interesting, to say the least. The problem for the Padres’ starters in both games is squaring off against an L.A. lineup that should go toe-to-toe with Atlanta as the best against righties once again. In my opinion, this is the key differentiating factor when handicapping the Seoul Series. Expect Padres’ left-handed relievers Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta to get the call in both games to fend off a challenging Dodgers lineup.
Flying Blind
The gap between Musgrove and Yamamoto is lesser than what I have for the starting pitchers in Game 1. This knocks down my number by 5-7% on the first 5 inning line and 3-4% for the full game, assuming no key injuries impacting Game 2. My totals remain very similar for both the game and each team, which may or may not be the case once the books post odds for the encore. I won’t get my hopes up but will certainly be looking for value!
Ready For Opening Day?
Opening Day is a little more than one week away! If you missed our Division Preview series, head over to the MLB page at BetCrushers.com – the landing spot for our daily baseball handicaps and Opening Day breakdown. Follow our feed on X or subscribe below for email alerts to stay in the loop. As always, BOL with your wagers!
