The Roval reconfiguration will be debated for quite a while. It was a contest in which drivers were challenged to pass one another – not great. But it was the post-race news that has the most impact. We’re leaving the controversy to social media and looking ahead to the 2024 Round of 8. Who makes it to Phoenix with Championship dreams in tact? It all starts in the Nevada desert with the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Shameless plug: stay tuned for Thursday’s episode of The Bank on NASCAR pod for a Las Vegas betting breakdown and DFS targets.
Four to Go: The 2024 Round of 8
What a long, strange trip the Round of 12 was. A dynamic Kansas race shook up our projections, especially with the Hendrick Chevrolet teams. The noteworthy performer that week was William Byron reemerging as a Championship contender where we saw potential for a slip-up. The #24 team gained the most stage points despite falling short of a win-and-advance behind the plucky Ross Chastain. Kyle Larson’s early incident and Chase Elliott’s move to a backup engine after qualifying deprived them from those crucial in-race points, putting them in a disadvantageous position after the first race of the round.
Things were clean at Talladgea until the inevitable Big One claimed the trio of Team Penske competitors as victims. In the meantime, William Byron drove his way into the Round of 8 with another healthy serving of stage points. Teammates Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman also improved their positions going into the Roval along with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. A 13-point gap separated Chase Elliott in the 8th and final transfer position from Joey Logano in 9th – which is where Logano finished in the standings after Tyler Reddick’s gutsy final stage kept him in the Championship fold. Not so fast, my friend. Within hours of Kyle Larson taking the checkered flag for the sixth time this season, teammate Alex Bowman failed inspection and Joey slid his way back into the picture. As of this getting published the #48’s appeal is forthcoming.
The Playoff Picture
The 2024 Round of 8 lineup of Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville is about as NASCAR as you can get. A true 1.5-mile intermediate, the grindy former Championship race venue, and the shortest, tightest track of them all. It didn’t take a rocket scientist in our Round of 12 preview to project Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell to advance, though the other two members of our “All But Locked In” group – Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott – had to hold on for dear life at the Roval. The margin of error is now even tighter with half the field on the chopping block in three weeks. Who shakes things up this time? Or does this round set up well for the chalk?
Las Vegas
Not only is Kyle Larson the defending South Point 400 winner, he’s your Pennzoil 400 champ from early March. Also in the “not a surprise” category is how Hendrick Motorsports has dominated Las Vegas in the Next Gen era. Rick’s Chevies won four of the five contests – William Byron and Alex Bowman each claiming one victory – with Joey Logano sitting in as the outsider. His 2022 playoff win cemented his spot at Phoenix where the #22 team won it all.
Don’t be surprised to see the top five and top ten riddled with chalk at the checkered flag. Las Vegas is a pure intermediate track where speed and handling prevail. But don’t neglect the importance of well-oiled pit crews helping to maintain track position. Notable playoff outsiders who could shake things up here include Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Ross Chastain. This is another spot where teams must clear the 30-point threshold at a minimum. 40+ points is effectively a must for anyone not named Kyle Larson.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Las Vegas
- Kyle Larson – Other than the 2022 playoff race, Las Vegas has been the #5 team’s home away from home. Cliff Daniels & Co. are extremely comfortable here, throwing a top-five car on the track in six of the last seven. They’ve posted the highest race rating to go with their last two victories. Plus they had the second-highest rating paired with a spring 2023 runner up finish.
- Tyler Reddick – Not too far behind Larson in our playoff rankings is the #45 Toyota of 23XI Racing. But Reddick’s Las Vegas resume pales in comparison. Still, a spring runner up to cap off 4 top ten finishes in the Next Gen era echoes his strong momentum on the ovals this season. Barring another letdown like Kansas in the last round, look for Tyler to stay on the right side of the cut line.
- Denny Hamlin – Has Denny become a little too comfortable with his back against the wall? The #11 team currently sits in the 6th playoff position with tough customers ahead of them. Hamlin hasn’t tasted victory in Vegas since the 2021 playoff race although he consistently puts forth top ten work. His trend of not qualifying at a Championship level could be what holds him back in this one though. Note that Denny sits atop iFantasyRace.com’s 1.5-mile Total Speed chart for this season.
- Christopher Bell – Las Vegas was the #20 Toyota’s playoff stumbling block until last year’s runner up changed the tune. Bell is in one of the best grooves in the Cup Series outside of Kyle Larson, especially when it comes to the 1.5-mile tracks. Top tens in both Kansas races and the Coca-Cola 600 win overshadow the tire troubles that sunk Christopher in the spring Vegas race.
- William Byron – Willy B looks to crack the top five for just the third time in the Next Gen era. He has come back to life in the waning weeks of the 2024 season but cannot afford to miss the boat on stage points with such a slim margin over the cut line. Even with a dud in the spring Kansas race, the #24 team ranks 3rd on the 1.5-mile Total Speed chart.
Potential Movers at Las Vegas
Unlike the previous round’s list of movers, we have a tough time projecting a base case where the apple cart is significantly upset at Las Vegas. Yet there’s only 20 points separating the second and last positions coming into the Round of 8! Here are two pair of teams projected to swap positions after the round’s opening race:
- Christopher Bell/Tyler Reddick – If Reddick is truly back on track, this is a situation where the 23XI entry can swap with C-Bell. But if the #20 is dialed in like last fall’s Vegas race, forget about it. Tyler arguably has more to prove as a playoff driver and this is a prime opportunity to break through.
- Denny Hamlin/Ryan Blaney – Ryan has outraced Denny in the last two Las Vegas contests, though the #12 has lagged the #11 in speed on the intermediates this season. Both teams consistently put a strong car on the track here so it becomes a matter of execution. These guys are motivated to get their necks above the cut line before Homestead but may be resigned to jockeying for position amongst each other.
Homestead
Homestead-Miami Speedway’s newfound position in the playoffs comes with a contingent of fans calling for the Championship race’s return to South Florida. It served this purpose from 2002-2019 before moving to Phoenix, lost a playoff race for a couple years, then regained it in 2022. Its distinction as a true four-cornered 1.5-mile oval separates it from other intermediates like Las Vegas and Kansas. But what truly puts Homestead on an island is its tire-eating surface akin to Darlington and the ill-fated oval in Fontana.
Consistent performance at Homestead is somewhat of an oxymoron. Only Austin Dillon and AJ Allmendinger have top ten finishes in both Next Gen races. Going back to the 2020 season when the Championship race migrated to Arizona, only four drivers registered top tens in 3 of those 4 races. Tire wear and cornering are king. These factors also make this the round’s “wild card” race when compared to Las Vegas and Martinsville.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Homestead
- Kyle Larson – A small lapse of judgement took the #5 team out of contention in this race last year. Regardless, look no further than Kyle Larson to find one of the two best-performing drivers at Homestead since leaving its post as the Championship host.
- William Byron – The #24 team has been rock solid on the high-wear intermediates since 2023. 4 finishes of P6 or better in the last 5 between Homestead and Darlington with 5 straight ratings of 7th or higher. As for this track specifically, 3 top ten finishes in the last 4 with a 2021 victory. And those were far from fluky – as demonstrated by 3 straight ratings of 3rd or higher.
- Denny Hamlin – A late rendezvous with the turn 1 wall in last year’s race interrupted 3 straight P11 or better finishes here. In fact, that was the 3-time Homestead winner’s only DNF in 19 Cup races. The noted tire conservationist is always a factor here.
- Tyler Reddick – Now is the time to note that our 2/3/4 slots are tightly bound. They about have to be if a guy who has 3 top five finishes in 4 races here is our fourth-ranked driver. A hard hit in 2022 stands as Tyler’s lone blemish in South Florida, making him a prime candidate to hold serve above the cut line.
- Christopher Bell – C-Bell’s past is a bit more checkered despite being the defending race winner. A pair of top five finishes in 2 of the last 3 Southern 500s in crunch time only add to his tire wear resume – especially when it counts. Was last year’s Homestead victory a breakthrough or just a byproduct of the track’s wild card nature? The jury is out but this team is trending strongly. They’ve missed the top ten in just 2 of the last 11 races this season (Watkins Glen & Michigan).
Potential Movers at Homestead
As far as our ratings go, there’s a gap between the top five above and the other three playoff drivers. And there’s a few non-playoff teams muddying the waters with potential to steal points from Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. Chase and Joey are especially susceptible to a widening gap from the cut line given their inconsistency over the last few years at Homestead. Bottom line: nobody is safe when tires are this critical.
- Ryan Blaney🔺 – Will the defending Cup Series Champion’s woes at the high-tire wear Darlington this year get in his way of scoring well at Homestead? The #12 team has run well here, posting top ten ratings in 4 of the last 5. Plus he had the best rating overall in his 2023 runner up performance. Watkins Glen and Talladega are Blaney’s only non-top ten playoff finishes so far this fall. This is a decent spot for Ryan to take advantage of tough days with the teams ahead of him.
Martinsville
Despite the Next Gen’s short track package woes, the half-mile Martinsville Speedway will ultimately decide who makes it into the Championship Four. It’s an O.G. track that has been on the Cup Series schedule since the get-go in 1949. Plus “The Paperclip” is serving as the season’s penultimate race for the fifth straight season. With passing at a premium, desperation can become the overriding emotion when push comes to shove in the final laps. Just ask Ross Chastain.
Last year, Martinsville was Ryan Blaney’s gateway to the big trophy. The reigning Champion’s first career victory on this historic track marked a fourth straight different winner here in the Next Gen era. This spring, William Byron captured his second Martinsville victory – both of which have come in this car.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Martinsville
- Kyle Larson – One of the heavy favorites to win it all, the #5 team sits atop our Martinsville rankings just above Denny Hamlin. 4 straight P6 or better finishes including the spring 2023 win and a pair of runner ups will do that. Plus this crew rates as one of the best on the comp tracks we use.
- Denny Hamlin – Less consistency at The Paperclip compared to Larson is one thing, being a 5-time winner here is another. Although it has been a few years since the #11 found victory lane. 3 P6 or better finishes in the 5 Next Gen races is decent, yet they mark a slight discrepancy in execution. These guys have rated 6th or better in the last 4 Martinsville races that include the highest figure in the 2022 playoff race and second-best in both 2023 contests.
- Ryan Blaney – I would not be surprised if the #12 team claimed their second Martinsville victory when it matters the most. Blaney has 5 straight P7 or better finishes – all of which came with top ten ratings. We expect this car to be one of the best in the field.
- Christopher Bell – C-Bell has had very unfortunate luck at Martinsville, all things considered. 3 very competitive cars in the last 5 races with just 1 top five finish to show for it. Granted, that was an impressive 2022 playoff race victory in a must-win scenario. The Paperclip is an animal all its own but you have to be impressed by Bell’s strong performances on the flatter-cornered tracks this season. Again, momentum is in the #20 camp’s corner.
- Chase Elliott – Chase edges out Joey Logano for the 5th and final spot on our list. I’ve arguably been too high on the #9 team throughout the postseason, yet here they are. This car is consistently one of the best at Martinsville despite falling into a lull in 2023. Otherwise, Elliott and Gustafson habitually start towards the front and gobble up plenty of stage points. And those stage points could be the difference between advancing to the Championship Four and just missing the boat.
Potential Movers at Martinsville
- Ryan Blaney 🔺 – Defending the Cup Series Championship could very well hinge on defending his Xfinity 500 crown. It’s all about execution to advance to the Championship Four. Phoenix is a spot where Blaney is extremely dangerous but Martinsville stands in the way.
- Joey Logano 🔺 – Martinsville pencils out to be the 2022 Cup Series Champion’s Hail Mary race of the round. I’m not as high on the #22 at Las Vegas and Homestead compared to this half-mile – a spot where Logano has 10 straight top ten finishes. A lackluster starting position could cripple his ability to gain meaningful stage points though.
- Tyler Reddick 🔻 – If there is any spot where the #45 falters this round, this is it. Reddick likely needs to load up on points at Las Vegas and Homestead to stay ahead of guys like Blaney, Logano, and Hamlin. Is this spring’s P7 finish – a career best – a sign of improvement or a one-off?
- William Byron 🔻 – I was on the fence about putting Willy B in the “potential decliner” category. He’s won here twice in the 5 Next Gen races, after all. But his Martinsville inconsistency in this car is marked by 16th or worse ratings in the 3 races in between those victories. Similar to Logano, a weak starting position likely hampers stage point accumulation. Whether he needs them after Vegas and Homestead is TBD.
From the 2024 Round of 8 to the Championship Four
Well, here we go. Just three more races until the season is decided at Phoenix Raceway. Homestead could through a monkey wrench into anyone’s plans for the Round of 8, as it has done for a few years now. But Las Vegas and Martinsville are somewhat straightforward for the majority of the eight remaining contenders. The #5 team finds themselves in great shape right now with a 33-point margin over the cut line. And that’s why Larson is our only driver in the Just Avoid Disaster at Homestead category.
Of the two drivers Strongly Situated to Advance, Bell has a small cushion of points and sets up decently across the three tracks. Hamlin is at a points deficit but has three legitimate shots to improve along the way. The Bubble Watch Candidates are an interesting mix of drivers. Reddick has a 10-point cushion to begin with the first two races setting up well. The #45 team’s goal is not to leave things up for chance at Martinsville though. And Byron’s situation too close to the cut line is similar to Reddick’s. I would not be surprised if the trio in our Finish Strong and Get Some Help group makes headway before Martinsville. But it might be due to others’ failures…and only one driver can win the elimination race.
Just Avoid Disaster at Homestead
- Kyle Larson
Strongly Situated to Advance
- Christopher Bell
- Denny Hamlin
Bubble Watch Candidates
- Tyler Reddick
- William Byron
Finish Strong and Get Some Help
- Ryan Blaney
- Chase Elliott
- Joey Logano
Want Our Stuff Delivered Straight To Your Inbox?
NFL season is here, and so is Yanni’s weekly DFS and handicapping articles that keep us on the right side of things more often than not. Plus we’re continuing on the NASCAR grind until the Champion is crowned at Phoenix in a couple months. So be sure to check out our NFL and NASCAR pages on the site, and subscribe for email notifications when new content drops. BOL!
