The jury is definitely out on the Bristol Night Race as a racing product. When it comes to playoff positioning, however, Kyle Larson stole the show and reinforced his top dog status as the 2024 Round of 12 opens. But for four teams, the results were less than favorable. And another four will find themselves out of contention in three more weeks. Second round playoff action kicks off this year at Kansas – a track that has delivered A-tier racing for a few years now. To get into the weeds for the opening race, be sure to tune into The Bank on NASCAR pod’s breakdown of the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Turning Up the Heat: The 2024 Round of 12
So how did we get here? The Penske Boys rolled in Atlanta with Joey Logano launching himself into the Round of 12 right out of the gates. The Round of 16 opener was also good enough for Ryan Blaney to cushion a brutal day at Watkins Glen. Plus Austin Cindric built enough of a cushion there to stay out of the danger zone at Bristol. One week later, Watkins Glen was taken by non-playoff driver Chris Buescher while furthering the advance of outsiders Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric. Spoiler alert: their Championship hopes are still alive.
Unfortunately, Martin Truex Jr.’s last gasp at another title died with a pit road speeding penalty. Fellow Cup Series veteran Brad Keselowski just didn’t have it; Harrison Burton succumbed to mechanical issues. Ty Gibbs’ disappointment will eventually give way to a promising future, but for now, he’s just another competitor in the field. Suarez and Cindric bucked our projections; the top seven teams rolled on in one fashion or another – including Denny Hamlin’s overly cautious route to the Round of 12.
The Playoff Picture
The rundown of 2024’s Round of 12 tracks is similar to last year’s, retaining Talladega and Roval as the final two legs. Texas Motor Speedway is now replaced in the leadoff spot by Kansas Speedway. With Texas racing more like a crapshoot these days, no need to compound volatility with ‘Dega in the mix, right? So we get an action-packed mile-and-a-half, a superspeedway, and hybrid road course to cut the field down to eight hopefuls for the Cup Series Championship. This round gets underway with even more pressure as the bottom seven teams fall within a tight 14 point range. Although Kyle Larson’s monster lead could evaporate, it’s borderline unfair to give the guy a big head start. Just kidding – it’s a well-earned head start for the #5 team.
Going For It At Kansas
You either have to be completely out of the loop or a cranky fan not to love how Kansas Speedway races with this generation of car. It’s a bread-and-butter intermediate for the Cup Series with a splash of something special. Cars can essentially drive anywhere on this track, creating multi-groove action that appeals to both fans and race teams.
When it comes to reigning at Kansas, Toyota has stacked the deck lately. Names like Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Bubba Wallace come to mind. But you should never count out Kyle Larson and his two Kansas wins since the 2021 season that include a victory this spring. It’s a heavy-hitter track where the strongest teams typically rise to the top. Notable non-playoff drivers with top five finishes in the spring 2024 race: Martin Truex Jr. and Chris Buescher. Contenders are looking at a minimum of 30 points for a good day; 40 points plus to impact the standings.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Kansas
- Kyle Larson – Very little surprise to see the latest Kansas race winner at the top of this list. Kyle also won the fall 2021 race and has posted five top five finishes here since the 2022 season. The sixth? A modest P8. The #5 team holds the third best total speed ranking here in the Next Gen era per Ryan at iFantasyRace.com. As for the 2024 season, Larson holds the top total speed ranking on the 1.5-mile track group plus Michigan. His win at Bristol bolsters top three form amongst the entire field.
- Denny Hamlin – The #11 team answered the bell at the elimination race despite beating around the bush in the first two playoff contests. Assuming this group has their game back on track, Kansas is very favorable for the spring 2023 race winner. Denny posted six straight top five finishes here and two leading race ratings in both 2023 races. Ryan’s total speed charts have Hamlin firmly at the top for Kansas with three straight top speed performances.
- Tyler Reddick – Tyler sits one rung below the Larson-Hamlin duo, primarily because he lacks the same level of consistency at Kansas. His underlying metrics are significantly more positive than his finishes despite being the defending race winner. Reddick sits in the second position on the 1.5-mile track total speed chart as well. Form in the Round of 16 was marginal but don’t lose sight of the tremendous momentum this team carried into the playoffs.
- Chase Elliott – This crew continues to fly under the radar for those not paying attention, though their strong showing in the Bristol Night Race may have opened some eyes. Elliott sits in the 7th slot for total speed at Kansas as well as in this season’s intermediate track races. Seems fitting for the team that comes into the Round of 12 in the 7th position. Chase has delivered three straight top ten finishes and ratings at Kansas, making him a strong candidate to score well in this round’s opener.
- Christopher Bell – Five of C-Bell’s last six here have resulted in top ten finishes and ratings. A slight amount of conflict between the #20 team’s inconsistent speed on the intermediates this season and their 2nd position on the Kansas total speed chart will come to a head this weekend. But Bell’s top five current form points toward a strong points day to keep him in good shape throughout this round.
Potential Movers at Kansas
- Denny Hamlin🔺 – Assuming the #11 crew approaches this round better, this is a great spot to move up from the 6th playoff position heading into Talladega.
- Chase Elliott 🔺 – Although Chase did not completely live up to expectations as our 3rd best playoff driver throughout the Round of 16, we’re billing him as a top five guy in this one. As for the rest of the Round of 12, you’ll have to keep reading.
- William Byron🔻- A Hendrick Chevy on a 1.5-mile intermediate slated to lose multiple positions? I promise, this isn’t a hot take for the sake of saying something. The #24 team is not putting together complete races – at least when compared to earlier this season, anyhow. They lacked top tier speed in the last couple Kansas races and find themselves surrounded by tough customers, including teammate Chase Elliott.
The biggest challenge for the bottom part of the playoff field is securing stage points to avoid a sub-25 point week. Especially when the teams sitting in 5th through 7th are expected to score well at Kansas. Treading water is one thing, falling behind is another.
Tackling Talladega
Maybe it’s less about tackling Talladega and more about not letting Talladega tackle you. Much like the Round of 16’s opener at Atlanta, ‘Dega is poised to be a stumbling block for multiple contending teams. On the flip side, drafting track aces like Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Chase Elliott could seize the opportunity to put the points squeeze on the others or even advance to the next round with a win a la Ryan Blaney a year prior.
Handicapping Talladega is two parts analysis and one part luck. Those proportions may or may not have came right out of my rear end. Regardless, the bottom line is truly underlined by variance. And that’s something you can lean into or simply acknowledge as part of the game. The variance impact extends from an “anyone can win” perspective to points. Points rule the playoffs. And Talladega can hand down big point swings in the standings. Look no further than Atlanta a month ago.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at Talladega
- Ryan Blaney – He’s been nothing short of incredible at Talladega since joining Team Penske. Ryan’s fortunes in the spring race came up snake eyes but it takes much more than that to knock the #12 team off this spot. He puts up good numbers more often than not and passes the eye test on the high banks. Blaney’s key knock here is not reliably banking stage points.
- William Byron – Subpar form by Willy B’s standards is the only thing keeping the #24 team from being rated above Blaney. His overall drafting track work is rock solid as well. 5 of the last 7 resulted in top ten finishes; 5 of those races logged fifteenth or better ratings.
- Chase Elliott – Only 1 DNF here since his 2020 Championship season highlights how well Chase can score in this round. A win like in 2022 would surely be appreciated by the #9 squad. Either way, the big opportunity for Elliott is to leapfrog drivers with a solid net points day. He scored points in both stages in each of the last five Talladega races, including 2 stage wins and 3 P2 finishes.
- Austin Cindric – Translating Atlanta to ‘Dega takes on a whole other meaning on the track. Boom-or-bust is the way of Austin Cindric since joining the Cup Series ranks. He’s scored Stage One points in each of the last four races – this spring featured a Stage One win and Stage Two P2. Converting another solid drafting track finish after Atlanta bodes well for Austin – and Team Penske, for that matter. Top six race ratings in 8 of the 11 drafting track races going back through 2023 is a strong foundation for scoring points.
- Joey Logano – The 2022 Cup Series Champion rounds out our top five playoff drivers at Talladega. But he’s actually well outside our overall top five with a group of non-playoff drivers in between. Aside from last round’s Atlanta win, Joey has struggled to finish well on the drafting tracks. Like teammate Austin Cindric, Logano has 9 top seven race ratings in the last 11. The downside: it’s been tougher sledding at Talladega for a few years running.
Surviving the Weekend
This is a major opportunity for guys like Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez to take a big bite out of the teams above them. From the other end, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin are all susceptible to a healthy points swing if they can’t crack the superspeedway code. Talladega is a tough track to model out points for but not impossible. We’ll see where everything shakes out before long!
Making the Cut At the Charlotte Roval
The hybrid road course Charlotte Roval is a sacred cow of the NASCAR Playoffs, retaining its role as the annual Round of 12 elimination venue. It’s also the lone wolf of hybrids – outlasting the Indianapolis and Daytona Road Courses of prior seasons. Prior winners at The Roval include non-playoff driver AJ Allmendinger in 2023, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott (twice), and Ryan Blaney in the inaugural contest back in 2018.
Handicapping the Roval is part it’s an animal of its own, part finding value in guys who run road courses well. New car or old car, prior years’ context is good – but I’d rather lean more on overall road course performance than be limited to just a couple Next Gen races on the Roval specifically. 40+ points or a win are musts to guarantee making it out of the marginal portion of the playoff field.
Our Top 5 Playoff Drivers at the Roval
- Tyler Reddick – Three straight Roval top tens backed up by 110+ ratings grabs your attention. Plus Tyler has been a factor in nearly every road course contest over the last couple seasons. The previous round’s clunky Watkins Glen race snapped a 5 race top ten streak on road courses going back to the Indy Road Course in 2023. That doesn’t even include his 2023 COTA win.
- Chase Elliott – This is a prime spot for the #9 team to score 40+ points. With the exception of 2021, Chase Elliott delivered 100+ ratings at the Roval and plenty of stage points. The 2022 running had a tough result and not every road course contest of late has been super successful. But Chase’s rich profile at this standalone track – notably his two pre-Next Gen wins – weighs heavier than the comps. This team is playing the long game astutely down the stretch.
- Christopher Bell – The 2022 Roval winner scores well across the board in this situation. That win plus a P15 in this car with top ten race ratings is solid, just not spectacular. Expand C-Bell’s data points to include all road courses since 2023 and the picture looks even sharper. 5 top ten finishes in those races with 5 top ten race ratings. Plus the #20 team has been one of the more consistent good finishers across the Cup Series this entire season. Case in point: Bell delivered 6 finishes of P6 or better in the last 8 races.
- Alex Bowman – Coming into the round in 11th place, Alex Bowman faces an uphill climb to get above the cut line. He produced top five finishes in the first two Roval races. Since then it’s been a pair of P8s and a P10 with reasonable speed. Nothing spectacular, just rock solid. Bowman’s overall road course profile is a bit more up-and-down though. Make no doubt, the Hendrick #48 has a decent opportunity here when compared to the majority of the playoff field.
- William Byron – Sonoma and Watkins Glen did not treat the #24 Chevy too well this season, breaking up a heater consisting of a COTA win, a 2023 Roval runner up, and 2023 Watkins Glen win. Byron’s road course performance over the last couple years has generally matched the result too. At the Roval specifically, 2021 and 2022 were relatively down races compared to the 3 finishes of P6 or better surrounding them. 5 straight top seven race ratings here underlines greater potential than what those finishes say on face value. Current form is Willy B’s main concern but not necessarily a dealbreaker.
Potential Movers at the Roval
- Alex Bowman 🔺- The Round of 12 sets up decently for AB. His biggest problem is starting below the cut line in a crowded house. The Roval could be a spot to take advantage of a stumbler like Ryan Blaney or Denny Hamlin.
- Tyler Reddick🔺- Reddick’s fate at Talladega isn’t as concerning as other Championship contenders. But if he needs them, Tyler can make up points at the Roval.
- Ryan Blaney 🔻 – Last year, he didn’t need the points at the elimination race due to the Talladega victory. In the event that his aggressive style and Talladega don’t see eye to eye, the Roval could be a tough place for Blaney to avoid the cut line.
Thinning the Herd To the Round of 8
Once again, this round features both drafting races and road courses that add variance – especially after what went down at Watkins Glen. Talladega presents the potential to shuffle the deck or pump up the Team Penske entries like Atlanta. But there’s clear favorable and unfavorable positions for certain teams in the round’s opener at Kansas and the elimination race at the Roval. Those All But Locked In have a nice head start in points as well as very favorable paths through the Round of 12. An exception to that is Chase Elliott, who does not have much of a cushion over the cut line right now. I also give Chase Briscoe an asterisk for impressive momentum even though The Walls Are Closing In on him.
All But Locked In
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- Tyler Reddick
- Chase Elliott*
Grind And You’re In
- William Byron
- Ryan Blaney
Bubble Watch Candidates
- Denny Hamlin
- Joey Logano
- Austin Cindric
- Alex Bowman
The Walls Are Closing In
- Daniel Suarez
- Chase Briscoe*
Want Our Stuff Delivered Straight To Your Inbox?
NFL season is here, and so is Yanni’s weekly DFS and handicapping articles that keep us on the right side of things more often than not. Plus we’re continuing on the NASCAR grind until the Champion is crowned at Phoenix in a couple months. So be sure to check out our NFL and NASCAR pages on the site. You can also subscribe for email notifications when new content is published. BOL!
